All 5 rookie Qbs: what the numbers really say

Seeker · Oct 5, 2012

Here are the records of all the rookie qb's.

1. Ryan Tannehill – 1W 3L Lost to Arizona Cardinals on the road, lost to new york jets.

2. Robert Griffin III – 2W 2L Lost to St. Louis rams at home, beat an 0 – 4 saints team
3. Andrew Luck – 1W 2L Never played an NFC west team, lost to jacksonville
4. Brandon Weeden - 0W 4L Never played an NFC west team, arguably hardest 4 games
5. Russell Wilson – 2W – 2L lost to both Rams and Cardinals on the road. Surprisingly second hardest schedules.

This is not a comparison to see which one is better as much as it is to show trends in rookie qbs in comparison to RW. There is this idea that somehow Russell is performing at a lower level than the others (as stated by Groz). in reality it appears that no rookie qb has beaten an NFC West team this year. does this explain away his shortcomings (nopun)? of course not, this is a very small sample set and even of this set two of the five quarterbacks haven't even played NFC west teams yet (and have drastically different records). but even in these two (luck, weeden) we see that luck has a bit of "fortune" in the fact that he plays in the weaker divison. Even then he lost to the jacksonville jaguars (1 - 3) and beating the vikings (3 - 1) before they somehow found the sword of Castle Greyskull. Weeden on the other hand is the only guy who has had the harder four games than RW. Brandon Weeden has never faced a team with so much as a losing record this year. Facing two of the harder teams (baltimore and cincinatti who are both division rivals) on the road to open the year doesn't help. Lastly we come to RW and the great irony of this is if you asked anybody who was a seahawk fan what our record would be after the first four games, you would have heard 2 - 2. Which is exactly right, except its flipped from what we thought.

the bottom line is this, the NFC west is tougher, much tougher than we thought. Heck the nfl in general is tougher than and more competitive then i remember it in some time. I think if it would have been W, L, L, W no one would be as up in arms. This kid will be fine.

Stats courtesy of ESPN

TLD0550 · Oct 5, 2012

yea in the W-L categories he is hanging in, But man break down some other stats and I think he has to be at the bottom tier of the class? I want nothing more than for him to succeed but at what cost is how im looking at it at this point..

I agree on the 2-2 remark no one would be up in arms if we swaped those wins, but If we have a little offense we win them all thats what pisses me of 2 losses by less than 2 scores..

Hollandhawk · Oct 5, 2012

Let's not forget it's a team sport, and I would say Wilson has by far the best team around him. Especially on defense, and the running game is nothing to sneeze at.

Recon_Hawk · Oct 5, 2012

Those aren't quarterback "numbers". They're team "numbers", and they tell us nothing about how each quarterback played or will play in the future.

Seeker · Oct 5, 2012

Recon - Very good point, those W/L marks don't say much about the quarterback the same way someone putting up gaudy 380 yard game stats per qb wouldn't mean much to the W/L categories of the teams (which in the end is all that matters).

we are last in the league in passing
right behind 3 - 1 (and previously 13 - 3) San Fransisco.

but to be fair

Robert Griffin III - 1070yds 124att [2 - 2] good recievers, play to rg3 strengths
Ryan Tanehill - 1046yds 143att [1 - 3] Bad D, plays from behind a lot, throw heavy
Brandon Weeden - 997yds 167att [0 - 4] play form behind a lot, down high deficits, bad recievers
Andrew Luck - 846yds 122att [1 - 2] plays under pressure a lot, lean pass offense
Russell Wilson - 574yds 100 att [2 - 2] plays in a run only offense, plays in close games, recievers better than we think

SalishHawkFan · Oct 5, 2012

yards per attempt:

RG3: 8.6
Tanehill: 7.3
Weeden: 6.0
Luck: 6.9
Wilson: 5.7

.net community was pretty much all wanting RG3 out of the five of them. I think people knew what they were talking about.

AgentDib · Oct 5, 2012

I really don't get where you are coming from here, as I am pretty sure everybody knows that we are 2-2. QB play is not the sole metric between winning and losing, and it is ridiculous to lump them together on the basis that only winning counts. What if our kicker missed 25 field goals but we finished 8-8? Would you argue that he was doing okay because our record was okay? Very silly.

All I see here is you saying "Russell Wilson is doing okay because we are 2-2." We have so much more to look at than just the record, and oversimplifying something just because it serves your purpose is not very persuasive.

Snohomie · Oct 5, 2012

Here are the records of all the rookie qb's.

1. Miami Dolphins – 1W 3L Lost to Arizona Cardinals on the road, lost to new york jets.

2. Washington Redskins – 2W 2L Lost to St. Louis rams at home, beat an 0 – 4 saints team
3. Indianapolis Colts – 1W 2L Never played an NFC west team, lost to jacksonville
4. Cleveland Browns - 0W 4L Never played an NFC west team, arguably hardest 4 games
5. Seattle Seahawks – 2W – 2L lost to both Rams and Cardinals on the road. Surprisingly second hardest schedules.

This is not a comparison to see which one is better as much as it is to show trends in teams starting rookies in comparison to the Seattle Seahawks. There is this idea that somehow Seattle is performing at a lower level than the others (as stated by Groz). in reality it appears that no team starting a rookie QB has beaten an NFC West team this year. does this explain away Seattle’s shortcomings (nopun)? of course not, this is a very small sample set and even of this set two of the five teams starting rookie Quarterbacks haven't even played NFC west teams yet (and have drastically different records). but even in these two (Indianapolis, Cleveland) we see that Indianapolis has a bit of "fortune" in the fact that they plays in the weaker divison. Even then they lost to the jacksonville jaguars (1 - 3) and beating the vikings (3 - 1) before they somehow found the sword of Castle Greyskull. The Browns on the other hand is the only team who has had the harder four games than Seattle. The Cleveland Browns have never faced a team with so much as a losing record this year. Facing two of the harder teams (baltimore and cincinatti who are both division rivals) on the road to open the year doesn't help. Lastly we come to Seattle and the great irony of this is if you asked anybody who was a seahawk fan what our record would be after the first four games, you would have heard 2 - 2. Which is exactly right, except its flipped from what we thought.

the bottom line is this, the NFC west is tougher, much tougher than we thought. Heck the nfl in general is tougher than and more competitive then i remember it in some time. I think if it would have been W, L, L, W no one would be as up in arms. This team will be fine.

Just replaced references to players to references to their team, and changed "he" to "they". I could've just swapped out names and positions if I had replaced them with, say, every team's LT. The underlined part is the only part that wouldn't apply to teams but actually has to be about a specific player.

Basically, this is about teams. About why we shouldn't freak out about Seattle. There is nothing about playing QB here, only about the whole team.

Seafan · Oct 5, 2012

It's nice that RW gets to see the Rams and Cards again but at Century Link.

MrCarey · Oct 5, 2012

Hartline almost had more receiving yards in one game than Russell Wilson threw for in any 2 games.

dunceface · Oct 6, 2012

our first three division games are on the road...tough on a rook

the other three AT HOME THREE OF THE LAST FOUR WEEKS

RichNhansom · Oct 6, 2012

How is each QB's 3rd and short conversion? That is maybe the most important stat IMO.

kearly · Oct 6, 2012

Stats don't tell the whole story, but RG3 is throwing for basically 3 more yards per attempt than Wilson is. Holy shit.

Must be because of that elite WR group RG3 has. Oh wait.

I think it's too early to judge Wilson. All four defenses he's faced so far rank in the top 10 or close to it. Every defense in the NFC West currently ranks in the top ten by DVOA, and Dallas/Green Bay are at 12th/13th right now. Very few rookies are playing well by the end of their rookie years much less start off playing well, and those ones were getting more than about 30% of his team's practice reps during most of the preseason. Then there is also the fact that Wilson is not a typical QB, he's a special needs QB that the coaching staff is still trying to figure out. They've also taken the ball out of his hands so that he can't establish a rhythm in most games.

It's just a little bit of a... oh dammit whats the word again... tip of the tongue... argh... rhymes with flusterduck... oh nevermind I'm sure I'll remember it later.

I know it's frustrating to watch this offense right now, and even for me it's really hard to be patient knowing that with even average QB play we are 4-0. But I also know that passing judgment or even making comparisons right now is a futile exercise, so I'm just going to wait and hope things straighten out.

RichNhansom · Oct 6, 2012

Good post Kearly.

Blitzhawk · Oct 6, 2012

Yea, tough crowd. I get what you are saying and where you are trying to go here. Basically, there are differing circumstances and outside influences affecting all records and stats so impossible really to make and direct comparisons. Whats that leave you then? Just the "eye" test in actually personally seeing how each QB is performing, but that is subjective to each persons view as well.

I personally think all rookie (I hate that word; lets say 1st time NFL regular season starters) QB's are going to have up and downs thru the first season. Growing pains, as people call them, are inevitable and only go away thru time. Real time regular season game experience is the only way some of these lessons are going to be learned, even for those that spend several years on the sidelines.

All in all, here is what I have seen in limited non professional viewing of each of those "Rookie" QB's.
RG3: has looked the best but they are gameplanning to his skills which may or may not affect his "NFL pro QB" learning curve down the road. Personally, I think it may prolong the pain in the long run.
Luck: Has looked alright, some ups and downs but remember he took over the "Suck for Luck" team from last year...do you really think they completely rebuilt that team during the offseason.
Tannehil: Has had his ups and downs as well but as mentioned prior it is Miami; if anybody can ruin a QB, they can.
Weeden: I have not seen him a ton but he really does not look good to me...could it be a tougher schedule of teams, IDK.
RW: I have liked a lot of what I seen but he has struggled as well at times. Is this partly due to the coaching, maybe, but he definately looks like a rookie w/ growing pains. I think he will definately improve as the season progresses but we the fans are going to be in for a bumpy ride as he learns by fire.

I personally don't think the ride would be any smoother w/ MF starting and we would be having the same types of "pains." I also think if we waited and started RW next year as some have voiced, we would just be postponing those inevitable growing pains. So, in the end, all we can really do is sit back, bite our knuckles, and yell our heads off in support.

Go Hawks!!!

nsport · Oct 6, 2012

Interesting addition to the OP - RW has wins over GB and Dallas.

hudsonhawk19 · Oct 6, 2012

LOL people really think Miami has a bad D? If you watched any of their games you would know they have a really good defense, All 4 of those qb's are playing better than RW, I still think RW will end up the best of them though, no need to be ignorant because RW is on the Seahawks, seriously RW is maybe playing as good as Weeden just because of his turnovers, at least weeden throws the ball down the field.

dunceface · Oct 6, 2012

I always bite my knuckles!

Hawks46 · Oct 6, 2012

Flynn probably would've made us better this year. RW is probably going to make us better over the long run.

Rookie QBs are going to have growing pains. Deal with it

RichNhansom · Oct 6, 2012

Oregonhawkfan, I agree with most of your post but there are things RW can learn without being the starter. Look at Flynn for example. Do you think he has improved from his rookie season?

Chemistry would also be a factor and learning to work with receivers on utilizing throwing lanes. Learning to trust and use the pocket efficiently as well as getting a full grasp of the playing book.

Things Flynn has already practiced and studied for the last four years and enough to show in real games that he has the basics down.

So while there would be a learning curve for both, Wilson's pretty obviously will be significantly steeper and likely provide significantly less production in the process.

I see this situation as an opportunity to win now as much as win later. The best part is we could potentially be building good trade value for Flynn at the same time.

All 5 rookie Qbs: what the numbers really say

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