AgentDib wrote:I think you are too optimistic on the Jets and Rams home games. Also, the percentages you have listed do not really add up to 11-5.
Here is what your percentages look like in a simple simulation with no mutations.
Your mean is clearly on the edge between 9-7 and 10-6. Of course, in reality the distribution is quite a bit flatter than this due to the possibility of events occurring that change all of your future projections (key injuries as a downside, stellar play as an upside).