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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 3:59 pm 
* NET Sports Handicapper *
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Looking back to last year and the first 5 this year, this team is in every game. I do believe this year's team is good enough to contend with every team on our schedule - the way the ball bounces could cause a little variance but at the end of the day there will be a lot of losses in this list if the consistency and clarity of play does not improve. No more stupid penalties and finishing plays and games on offense/defense has to be the theme as they trudge through. Realistically I think we have a real shot at 12 wins or even more - but this is the NFL. The better we get, the harder our opponents will play. The question is how many wins does it take to make the post season - usually 10 is a good goal - which means can we get to 11? It's going to take some luck but I'm pretty sure they can do it.

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 4:01 pm 
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vs New England - Loss
at San Francisco - Loss
at Detroit - Win
vs Minnesota - Loss
vs New York Jets - Win
at Miami - Win
at Chicago - Loss
vs Arizona - Win
at Buffalo - Win
vs San Francisco - Loss
St. Louis - Win

For a final record of 9-7.


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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 4:50 pm 
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i say we will be lucky to get to 10-6 with the way this offense is playing.
that st louis loss hurts

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:55 pm 
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Location: Bay Area, CA
vs New England - Win
at San Francisco - Loss
at Detroit - Win
vs Minnesota - Win
vs New York Jets - Win
at Miami - Win
at Chicago - Win
vs Arizona - Win
at Buffalo - Win
vs San Francisco - Win
St. Louis - Win

You can call me optimistic!

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:39 pm 
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I think you are too optimistic on the Jets and Rams home games. Also, the percentages you have listed do not really add up to 11-5.

Here is what your percentages look like in a simple simulation with no mutations.

Image

Your mean is clearly on the edge between 9-7 and 10-6. Of course, in reality the distribution is quite a bit flatter than this due to the possibility of events occurring that change all of your future projections (key injuries as a downside, stellar play as an upside).

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 Post subject: Re: Schedule: the rest of the way
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:30 pm 
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AgentDib wrote:
I think you are too optimistic on the Jets and Rams home games. Also, the percentages you have listed do not really add up to 11-5.

Here is what your percentages look like in a simple simulation with no mutations.

Image

Your mean is clearly on the edge between 9-7 and 10-6. Of course, in reality the distribution is quite a bit flatter than this due to the possibility of events occurring that change all of your future projections (key injuries as a downside, stellar play as an upside).


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