Why I think we will lose this game

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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:48 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:I am not underestimating the importance of pressuring the passer, but we've won a lot of games this year with crap pressure put on the opposing QB. Just sayin'.


    Sure. But then we haven't played the #1 seed on the road. The best quarterback we've beaten with this situation on the road is Jay Cutler.


    And he's like a hung over Jeff George!

    It will not surprise me in the least if we win this game.

    That's my football analysis. Obviously I'm a big X's & O's guy.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:48 pm
  • One thing to remember about the NFL - usually the obvious things we "think" are going to happen don't end up working out that way. It's kind of funny.

    For example, remember how we were supposed to destroy the Cards and Rams suspect offensive lines in our first match-ups? Yeah, that didn't happen.

    Pressure has been a huge problem all season long, and yet we have won six in a row and are a win away from the NFC Championship game.

    One thing this team has learned how to do is win by making up for problems in other areas. Earlier in the season when our offense was BLECH, our defense was the key. Before Wilson really caught fire, Beast Mode was the key. Now we have a total team that wins by adhering to the axiom if holism - the "whole is better than the sum of it's parts".

    I agree that it's a concern, but I'm not ready to concede that it means we will lose.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:48 pm
  • Hawkfan77 wrote:Cool story bro.


    Why I think we will win this game

    We are the better team.

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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:49 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:Road, schmoad. Matt Ryan was a much better QB on the road this year than at home. Bottom line, we beat Brady without much pressure.


    We also lost to much poorer QB's on the road (Tannehill, Stafford) due to a lack of pressure. If you won't to ignore this and just presume we'll be fine, that's fine by me. Just trying to raise a valid concern and have a discussion about it. I don't think 'we beat Brady by one point in a completely different situation' is enough of a counter though.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:51 pm
  • I'm not presuming we'll be fine, I just think this team is used to finding ways to win without much QB pressure. I want a lot of QB pressure, but we're probably one of the least pressure-dependent defenses in the NFL. Not getting QB pressure does not automatically spell doom for us. IMO, if we lose this game, it's going to be because of short passes over the middle & quick slants, and Gonzalez will have a big day.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:52 pm
  • Wagner is fast enough to get pressure up the middle, and, let's face it, it's not like our linebacking crew stays glued to the middle of the field very often anyway.

    I also think the lack of concern about the Atlanta game means we load up on passing packages. I wouldn't be surprised to see us dare them to run on constant passing fronts. Or, even if you want, you just tell Branch and Bryant to stay in the game and play the run, everyone else plays the pass until Turner proves he can move worth a damn.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:52 pm
  • Barthawk wrote:well... pressure won't be as necessary when we possess the ball 35 minutes of the game by running it effectively.. that is the key to beating ATL, not pressure, but our running game..

    we run the ball like we have most of the season, we win... simple..


    I wish this was true. Not saying we cannot be a force with the run, but they are going to have the football too. And if Matt Ryan scores quick points in the passing game, we're not necessarily going to be able to run... run... run... all day from behind.

    Zebulon Dak wrote:It will not surprise me in the least if we win this game.


    I will not be surprised either. This thread is just a different angle on the game and my two cents on something that worries me a little.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:58 pm
  • This game is new territory for the 2012 Seahawks. Imagine the New England/Detroit games, but against an even better trio of primary targets. Welker/Lloyd/Gronk and Megatron/Young/Pettigrew aren't as ominous to me as Young/Jones/Gonzalez. In those other two games, it came down to the wire, and to Russell Wilson. We lost one of them.

    I stand my prediction of Detroit scoring at least four touchdowns on us. Wilson and Lynch will have to match him. That's where our best chance lies, as Atlanta is said to have just the kind of soft defense that Lynch eats for dinner.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:59 pm
  • What a bunch of negative posts. I gaurantee you that Wilson will be very motivated to amend for what I am sure he considers a meager performance last weeked. We are going to demorilize their D! I think their jaw will be dropped on the sidelines when we start pulling away from them on the scoreboard and their offence will then get desperate for big strikes and a turnover or 2 will rear its ugle head for the Falcons.
    The game is the Hawks to lose not the the Falcons to win...
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 2:59 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
    mistaowen wrote:We looked fantastic at the end of the game sending blitzes on Kirk Cousins even if he is a rookie. Now I doubt we send that type of heat every single down, but having Clemons out must make our coaches realize we need to get creative to get pressure, especially if we as fans can see it. Bruce and Scruggs really started coming hard in their base packages as well after Clem went down, directly at the QB not dancing outside, so maybe the light finally went on for Bruce?

    If we don't get pressure I can see this game ending in 14+ point loss.... their passing game is full of allstars. But like you said, the Cards got pressure on Matty Ice and he isn't the same QB when that happens. He likes to force throws when his pocket is collapsing and that bodes very well for our ballhawking secondary if we can jump it. I imagine we will see Earl covering over the top on Browner's side for most of the game and hoping Sherm can do his thing 1 on 1.

    I bet we are going to see a whole lot of Marshawn to help keep them off the field a la Giants versus Brady in both superbowls.



    Here's the thing though - we as fans see a heavy blitz against a rookie backup who enters the game in the fourth quarter trailing by ten points. We then see the blitz having success. If we tried that tactic against Matt Ryan, you're essentially saying - get to the QB or we're going to get burned. No grey area there. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan - these guys WANT you to blitz. Kirk Cousins doesn't know what he wants as a rookie backup.

    We as fans can say, 'well that worked'. But there's a reason why the coaches are sticking with the four man rush. We're not leaving ourselves open to the big play and if we do create pressure we have a lot of opportunistic players in position to capitalise. I have no doubt that we'll continue doing this against Atlanta, hoping that we get the occasional stop and keep them to three points on drives rather than seven. And we want to play our offensive scheme and score more points than them. That's how we'll look at it. That absolutely has to be the game plan. If they go this way and we lose I won't complain because I don't think the alternative of blitz, blitz, blitz will work any better. I think we'll be destroyed doing that.

    Maybe they do get creative on some select plays? The thing is, who do you blitz? I think our LB's need to sit in coverage. Earl needs to stay deep and help out the corners. Kam needs to watch Gonzalez. I'm not sure they have many options here.

    And one other thing I think may be our downfall - the corner/safety blitz from their defense. They use it a LOT. Washington had success with it last week. Could be an issue.

    BlueTalons wrote:I say we bring the house on blitzes until the Falcons prove they can beat it. If it works keep doing it. If not bring out the Bandit!


    It'll be a long day if we do this IMO.

    It's only a long day if you keep doing it and it doesn't work....
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:00 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
    Zebulon Dak wrote:It will not surprise me in the least if we win this game.


    I will not be surprised either. This thread is just a different angle on the game and my two cents on something that worries me a little.


    I think your points are very valid. I also think that, as Roland mentioned, this team seems to find ways to win, even when things aren't working out as planned (see Marshawn's scoop & run or Wilson's misread & run up the gut). I agree our pass rush could suffer with the loss of Clem (although I am exited to see what Brucifer can do at full time Leo), and that pressuring Ryan would be a very helpful way to limit the Falcons offense. I believe we can win this game, consistent pass rush or not.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:02 pm
  • Anybody else think this game is a prime opportunity to start blitzing a lot?
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:02 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:Anybody else think this game is a prime opportunity to start blitzing a lot?


    Yes.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:03 pm
  • How could this thread not mention the 5% body fat Chukwaba..err...Chewbacca at the pinnacle age of 33. Have some faith.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:05 pm
  • OMG, we need to nickname him Chewie.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:06 pm
  • I want to see Matt Ryan on his back and it's not because I find him extremely attractive.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:06 pm
  • Number one. I don't think Pete is unaware of the need for pressure. The video suggests Matt Ryan struggles when pressured. Pete will have some stuff planned.
    Number two. The pass pro for the Falcons is not great up the middle. Neither is the run blocking. There is a good chance, IMO, we will see Seattle's tackles have good push. I think that matters more with a pocket climber like Ryan than edge pressure from Irvin.


    I respect your post, English. I was feeling this way earlier. But the matchups just favor us in too many areas. The Falcons D has lived by the turnover. We don't turn the ball over much, especially the last ten games. The Falcons run defense is turrible.

    I think this game really might come down to the last possession.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:06 pm
  • Sarlacc83 wrote:How could this thread not mention the 5% body fat Chukwaba..err...Chewbacca at the pinnacle age of 33. Have some faith.


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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:06 pm
  • Zebulon Dak wrote:I want to see Matt Ryan on his back and it's not because I find him extremely attractive.


    Don't lie, that's at least half of it.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:08 pm
  • Seahawk Sailor wrote:Championship. Not Chumbawumba, not Chewbacca, not Chimchanga. Championship.


    Rams bet status: honored. Bradford still sucks.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:11 pm
  • If we do get consistent pressure on Ryan we will win for sure. If we dont (which I dont think we will either) we still have a great chance to win this game. Red Zone stops will be key.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:12 pm
  • I really think it's going to come down to our defense keeping them out of the endzone and our offense being able to score some points.

    (cliche intended ;) )
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:23 pm
  • scakfan wrote:What a bunch of negative posts. I gaurantee you that Wilson will be very motivated to amend for what I am sure he considers a meager performance last weeked. We are going to demorilize their D! I think their jaw will be dropped on the sidelines when we start pulling away from them on the scoreboard and their offence will then get desperate for big strikes and a turnover or 2 will rear its ugle head for the Falcons.
    The game is the Hawks to lose not the the Falcons to win...



    If you just want to read posts that talk about how amazing we are and how much the Falcons suck (they don't), then why open a thread with this title?

    RolandDeschain wrote:Anybody else think this game is a prime opportunity to start blitzing a lot?


    There's a reason PC and DB (and a lot of defensive coaches) don't blitz much against top QB's. It'll never be a prime opportunity to blitz Matt Ryan.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:25 pm
  • LawlessHawk wrote:I really think it's going to come down to our defense keeping them out of the endzone and our offense being able to score some points.

    (cliche intended ;) )



    I agree. Need to just keep them in front of us and our red zone d will take over. Having watched the Hawks nearly every game I believe we have the best red zone team on both sides of the ball.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:36 pm
  • You simply have to get pressure on Ryan without the blitz. I don't have the stats on me, but I know this year he's had something like a 96.1 rating against the blitz. I'm actually curious as to how good he's been in years past, too.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:37 pm
  • We just gotta play our game, pound them with the run and the bend but don't break D.

    I think it was Mark Schlereth that said Seattle was one of the best teams at creating an organic pass rush. Which implies good play from our secondary and running more stunts, twists and forcing the oline to react to changing assignments. This article was pretty interesting on how teams like us without a JJ Watt create pressure without blitzing much.

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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:40 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
    mistaowen wrote:We looked fantastic at the end of the game sending blitzes on Kirk Cousins even if he is a rookie. Now I doubt we send that type of heat every single down, but having Clemons out must make our coaches realize we need to get creative to get pressure, especially if we as fans can see it. Bruce and Scruggs really started coming hard in their base packages as well after Clem went down, directly at the QB not dancing outside, so maybe the light finally went on for Bruce?

    If we don't get pressure I can see this game ending in 14+ point loss.... their passing game is full of allstars. But like you said, the Cards got pressure on Matty Ice and he isn't the same QB when that happens. He likes to force throws when his pocket is collapsing and that bodes very well for our ballhawking secondary if we can jump it. I imagine we will see Earl covering over the top on Browner's side for most of the game and hoping Sherm can do his thing 1 on 1.

    I bet we are going to see a whole lot of Marshawn to help keep them off the field a la Giants versus Brady in both superbowls.



    Here's the thing though - we as fans see a heavy blitz against a rookie backup who enters the game in the fourth quarter trailing by ten points. We then see the blitz having success. If we tried that tactic against Matt Ryan, you're essentially saying - get to the QB or we're going to get burned. No grey area there. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan - these guys WANT you to blitz. Kirk Cousins doesn't know what he wants as a rookie backup.

    We as fans can say, 'well that worked'. But there's a reason why the coaches are sticking with the four man rush. We're not leaving ourselves open to the big play and if we do create pressure we have a lot of opportunistic players in position to capitalise. I have no doubt that we'll continue doing this against Atlanta, hoping that we get the occasional stop and keep them to three points on drives rather than seven. And we want to play our offensive scheme and score more points than them. That's how we'll look at it. That absolutely has to be the game plan. If they go this way and we lose I won't complain because I don't think the alternative of blitz, blitz, blitz will work any better. I think we'll be destroyed doing that.

    Maybe they do get creative on some select plays? The thing is, who do you blitz? I think our LB's need to sit in coverage. Earl needs to stay deep and help out the corners. Kam needs to watch Gonzalez. I'm not sure they have many options here.

    And one other thing I think may be our downfall - the corner/safety blitz from their defense. They use it a LOT. Washington had success with it last week. Could be an issue.

    BlueTalons wrote:I say we bring the house on blitzes until the Falcons prove they can beat it. If it works keep doing it. If not bring out the Bandit!


    It'll be a long day if we do this IMO.


    I agree we most likely will see them sticking with base rushes but I wouldn't be shocked if we see more creative schemes. There will be a drop off in play at the Leo position purely from a lack of experience, so I think we should see more assisted pressure from Bruce's side of the field, maybe 5 man rushes. Blitzing constantly would ultimately lead to our loss 9 times out of 10, but we HAVE to get pressure on 3rd downs and if this means more blitzes I think I would be for that. You cannot ask a secondary to stick with Julio Jones/Roddy White/Tony Gonzalez for 6+ seconds the entire game.

    The thing I am more excited about is the 'idea' of playing less zone coverage since Matt Ryan doesn't run out of the pocket very often. I am hoping we can line up in man coverage and jam the hell out of their WR's to compensate for the potential of a lesser pass rush. Watching us sit back in soft zones the past few games against mobile quarterbacks has been painful but I understand the need to do it. I am praying the lack of mobility Ryan has will allow our defense to stay away from zones, but who knows how Gus will call the game.

    Our offense being able to sustain long drives will be huge on Sunday. If we have to get in a shootout I don't like our chances. Lots of Marshawn with the read option will make me happy.

    Who knows, maybe Irvin will come out and play the best game of his career.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:41 pm
  • I agree with English to a certain extent - all of the teams that have had success against the potent passing offenses, like the two Giants SB winners, have been able tp get pressure with rushing 4 and dropping the rest into coverage. Look what happened when we managed that against GB. We probably are able to cover for a second or two longer than the average secondary, but we still need to get to the QB eventually.

    I don't think we change what has worked and got us this far though. I think both sides will move the ball, and whether we win or not will depend upon our red zone D. I think a short field suits our D more than most, and we can sell out for the pass whilst still being confident in our ability to stop the run. Tbat is ths key here - if the Falcons pose little threat on the ground, then I think we wi . Since our O hit stride and we started scoring points, I think we beat any team with a one-dimensional offense. I'd say this is pick 'em rather than make the Falcons favourites.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:42 pm
  • RolandDeschain wrote:Anybody else think this game is a prime opportunity to start blitzing a lot?

    Why we will win if we play Blitz...wait...
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:43 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:I am not underestimating the importance of pressuring the passer, but we've won a lot of games this year with crap pressure put on the opposing QB. Just sayin'.


    Sure. But then we haven't played the #1 seed on the road. The best quarterback we've beaten with this situation on the road is Jay Cutler.


    Our offense also wasn't up to snuff prior to that. I think people are overrating the loss of Chris Clemons.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:46 pm
  • BlueTalons wrote:
    RolandDeschain wrote:Anybody else think this game is a prime opportunity to start blitzing a lot?

    Why we will win if we play Blitz...wait...
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    Freddie looks like he's about to get rung-up...
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:47 pm
  • Freddie looks like the Hamburglar. Blitz looks like Sam the Eagle Muppet.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:48 pm
  • Fox0r wrote:Our offense also wasn't up to snuff prior to that. I think people are overrating the loss of Chris Clemons.


    Can you explain why?

    Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:50 pm
  • No amount of bellyaching makes the fact that we're #1 in the NFL in scoring defense go away. That was despite having no pass rush. That was not some sort of magic or accident. The coaches know we aren't getting pressure. They don't do anything to "fix" it. The fix would be worse than the cure and we are the BEST IN THE NFL. If this is such a "valid concern" why are we #1 in the NFL in scoring defense?

    We don't "find a way to win". That's a backhanded compliment, in fact an insult. Like we're just squeaking by with new tricks up our sleeves each week, always on our heels. You know who's on their heels? Our opponents. That's why we lead the NFL in scoring defense. That's why we're like 3rd in margin of victory. We play the same way every week. There's no tricks.

    We play defense the same way every time and yet people still don't understand how it works. We don't give up big plays. We are great in the red zone. We make the other team have to string together lots of first downs and then we hold you to a field goal if you survive that gauntlet. We have great players that execute this scheme amazingly well. We do this every game and every game it works.

    It's dumbfounding to me that suddenly Atlanta, a team that played the easiest schedule in the NFL and struggled with it, is world beaters. Someone said they're going to beat us by 14! You realize Atlanta has played lots of teams with no pass rush this year, right? Where are all the blow outs from this unstoppable force from Atlanta? Where is this anxiety coming from?

    No one knows, it could be a shootout. But, as of now, you have no legitimate argument. It's far, FAR more likely that a team that feasted on poor defenses will then not reach its season average when playing the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.

    #1

    #1 scoring defense in the NFL. Never had a pass rush. Don't need one. Still #1. Not an illusion. Not a mystery. #1.

    Of all the major North American sports, football has the largest element of chance. Atlanta could very well beat us. But it won't be because we don't have a pass rush. Seattle is the better football team and wins this game 65% of the time. Maybe next year we'll draft or trade for someone and get AZ style base pass rush. If that happens, we'll start giving up negative points per game.

    But, don't forget, #1. In the entire NFL. Scoring defense.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:53 pm
  • Clemons being out doesn't mean we're going to field 10 guys. Someone else will be on the field to take his place. Last week, we seemed to do just pretty darn dandy with Clemons out. Worst case scenario is a marginal reduction in some aspects of defensive efficiency. Best case, and not at all unlikely, fresh legs and fresh personnel groupings reveals exciting new unprepared for advantages.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:54 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
    Fox0r wrote:Our offense also wasn't up to snuff prior to that. I think people are overrating the loss of Chris Clemons.


    Can you explain why?

    Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


    Part of me wants to believe we overvalue Clem and that Bruce can just slide over and do his job as good if not better. Mostly that's the part of me that's pissed off that he got injured.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:56 pm
  • BullHawk33 wrote:I agree that we will lose this game if Matt Ryan isn't pressured and can pick and choose his targets at will. That said, we've still managed a way to keep close all year against some very good teams. If we solve this, we win.

    I have a TON of faith in our defensive backfield though to make the passes that do get thrown as difficult as possible and the YAC attempts as painful as possible.


    I dunno Ryan racked up 400+ yards on the Saints and the Falcons still lost. My boss is a huge Saints fan, grew up in Louisiana played at LSU, he said you guys get up on them early and run the ball down their throat no way you lose. If they perceive the wheels are coming off they will wilt.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:56 pm
  • formido wrote:No amount of bellyaching makes the fact that we're #1 in the NFL in scoring defense go away.


    "Bellyaching"

    I love it when a valid argument gets the 'bellyaching' treatment.

    What a terrific counter.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:00 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
    Fox0r wrote:Our offense also wasn't up to snuff prior to that. I think people are overrating the loss of Chris Clemons.


    Can you explain why?

    Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


    Most of the time, Big Red is playing opposite of Clemons on 1st and 2nd down, if you take out Clem and put in Bruce, it is really a push in terms of rushing the passer -- maybe a slight difference, but negligible in my opinion. For all we know, Bruce could bring MORE consistent pressure given the additional looks and snaps played. Maybe a slight drop in our ability to defend the run, but I have faith in our linebackers' range and ability to close the gaps and make up the difference. Atlanta isn't really a rushing juggernaut, anyhow, and Michael Turner is slow as molasses. Can we really say with confidence that Irvin is a liability in run defense? He hasn't really needed to care about that assignment until now.

    The main concern may be on passing downs where we're forced to fill the void left by Bruce moving to Clem's spot, but I feel confident in our team's ability to bring pressure with other looks. Realistically, Bruce wasn't consistently getting a lot of pressure on the QB during passing downs most of the time, anyhow. We haven't really had the world's most dominant pass rush even with Clem and Bruce in the games together at the same time. A huge majority of their sacks came in 3 or so games and we've been fine.

    Just my two cents, and I'm not saying I'm right by any means.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:06 pm
  • Their offensive line really isn't much to write home about..

    Not having Clemons stings, but I have confidence Irvin is going to get some pressure back there.

    All that said.. the games the Falcons lost, Matt Ryan had a sensational day and it wasn't enough. At the end of the day, it's on the Seahawks offense to control clock and score touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:06 pm

Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:07 pm
  • Is it only me who is kind of excited to see how Bruce is going to perform against the run? It might be a bad match up but I want to see how he does.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:07 pm
  • I don't think so, at least IMO. I don't think a lack of pass rush will be the deciding factor in this game as it hasn't been for the majority of games all season it seems. Even in the GB game we barely won even though we sacked AR 8 times!
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:08 pm
  • formido wrote:Clemons being out doesn't mean we're going to field 10 guys. Someone else will be on the field to take his place. Last week, we seemed to do just pretty darn dandy with Clemons out. Worst case scenario is a marginal reduction in some aspects of defensive efficiency. Best case, and not at all unlikely, fresh legs and fresh personnel groupings reveals exciting new unprepared for advantages.


    Y'know, I think the argument can be made pretty easily that Clem's production over the last few years has been as much a result of the scheme as it is a result of the talent of Chris Clemons. I absolutely love the dude and respect the hell out of what he brings, but if Clem is such an amazing talent and an unreplaceable piece of the puzzle that we're doomed without him, where was his production in all the years he was in the NFL prior to becoming the Leo DE in Pete Carroll's 4-3 under defense?

    Now we spent a 1st round draft pick on Bruce Irvin because he has all the tools required to play the Leo DE in Pete Carroll's 4-3 under defense. I'm willing to bet that pass rush production from the Leo side of the field won't go down. I'm a little worried about production from the "Raheem Brock" side of the field now that we're going to be relying on Greg Scruggs and a 33 year old workout warrior who hasn't played in 4 years. Scruggs can bring it, but to the same level that Irvin did over there? <shrug> I don't know, but I don't think it will be as big a let down as many are thinking.

    Thanks for the pep talk Formido. I've decided that I am no longer worried about our ability to apply pressure to Matt Ryan or the loss of Chris Clemons. the only place where I think Clem is clearly better than Irvin is in run support, but Atlanta sucks at running the ball anyway so I'm not going to worry about it...
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:10 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


    I don't agree that he's one of the best pass rushers in the league. He gets sacks, but not consistent pressure. Otherwise we wouldn't be sitting around talking about "no pass rush". Clemons is very hot and cold from play to play and generally our opponents have been unhurried.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:10 pm
  • Falcan Moore wrote:You simply have to get pressure on Ryan without the blitz. I don't have the stats on me, but I know this year he's had something like a 96.1 rating against the blitz. I'm actually curious as to how good he's been in years past, too.


    Yep. I noticed in that game against New Orleans (will watch the Carolina one later), that the times the Saints were able to generate pressure with just 3-4 guys.. Ryan was pressed into making some tough decisions, and that's when he indeed made mistakes. They were few and far between that game, but they did happen..

    Meanwhile when the Saints blitzed, it wasn't pretty. Ryan killed them.

    Now I will say our personnel is light years better than New Orleans.. but I think Atlanta will actually prefer we blitz.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:16 pm
  • MontanaHawk05 wrote:
    theENGLISHseahawk wrote:Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


    I don't agree that he's one of the best pass rushers in the league. He gets sacks, but not consistent pressure. Otherwise we wouldn't be sitting around talking about "no pass rush". Clemons is very hot and cold from play to play and generally our opponents have been unhurried. Don't ask me how we've managed the #1 scoring defense against one of the toughest schedules without a pass rush, because I haven't figured out how yet.

    I think our secondary, honestly, pressures QB's more than anyone else.


    Word. I have noticed a lot of qb's either throwing it into the 2nd row or dumping it off to a checkdown for minimal gain against our secondary. I'm not super confident in being able to contain the dynamic trio over there long enough to get sacks, but hopefully we can hold them long enough for Ryan to give up on plays and get rid of the rock.

    I like this thread. I went from being so bunged up about our lack of pass rush that I was ready to sell out what we do well for cockameme blitzes from the bandit to saying "meh, we got this".

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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:18 pm
  • formido wrote:#1 scoring defense in the NFL. Never had a pass rush. Don't need one. Still #1. Not an illusion. Not a mystery. #1.


    I think everyone's well aware of that. But you're not really providing anything but vague platitudes as to how Seattle is defying conventional wisdom this way.

    It's not like we went undefeated. Our 11-5 was a razor's edge. We faced some very bad quarterbacks (Sanchez, Ponder, Newton, Arizona) who didn't need to be pressured in order to suck, we faced some defensive-oriented teams (Rams, 49ers), and while we also beat some very good QB's, we either barely beat them because of no pass rush (Brady), lost to them because of no pass rush (Stafford), or beat them WITH PASS RUSH (Rodgers). Not to mention Jason Jones providing interior pressure all year.

    I'm scratching my head as to how Seattle accomplished the #1 defense without pass rush, but I'm not so quick to just throw one of the cornerstones of modern NFL defenses to the wind unless I get some better analysis as to why.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:38 pm
  • Interesting thread, and I definitely share the OP's concerns.

    I think its important to note that pressure doesn't always constitute sacks. I feel like they can scheme some pressure, because all you really need is to get Matt Ryan fading back a little in the pocket and make him uncomfortable. Qb's hate guys around their feet.

    I've got my doubts about how well Irvin can hold up and wouldn't be surprised if Scruggs was in there on running downs and Irvin on passing downs.

    I wouldn't be surprised if we got thumped by a couple touchdowns, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we thumped them by a couple touchdowns.

    Mike Smith reminds me of Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Cowher(until 2005), both of those coaches tightened up to a maddening degree in the playoffs and it reflected in playcalling and the psyche of their teams. When they gambled, it was often needless(Mike Smith last year against the Giants). I'm interested to see how the Falcons come out, I wouldn't be surprised if they started the game firing the ball downfield to try and get up early rather than do what they should do and attack us on the edges with the running game.

    Its also important to note that when the Seahawks have brought pressure this year, those rare times, its been very successful. For a team that doesn't blitz much, they time and disguise it tremendously. I'd expect to see more blitzes, not an excessive amount, but enough to make Matt Ryan second guess his pre snap read. Against the Seahawks secondary, that's all that needs to happen. Make Ryan think twice, make him hesitate, make him uncomfortable and we can hold our own in the passing game.

    Regardless of what happens, I've enjoyed the hell out of this team this year.
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Re: Why I think we will lose this game
Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:40 pm
  • theENGLISHseahawk wrote:Not being overly negative here... I think we've had a fantastic season. I think we'll come back even stronger next year and if we avoid injuries, could well have a rematch against the Falcons only this time we have the home field advantage. The Seahawks are going in absolutely the right direction, I just think we'll come up short against a #1 seed, 13-3 team on the road. The reason...?

    LACK OF PRESSURE ON MATT RYAN

    I think we'll struggle, once again, to get pressure in base defense. I watched the Cardinals @ Falcons game and the one thing (only thing?) Arizona does well is pass rush. It amazes me that Ray Horton hasn't got the Cards' Head Coach gig simply to keep him as part of that franchise. They got at Ryan and forced mistakes. He's not too mobile, he likes to have time. Give him that time and he'll kill you - especially with the options he has at WR/TE. He threw FIVE interceptions against Arizona and scored no touchdowns. They scraped to victory 23-19 despite Arizona having 70 total passing yards in that game. The reason? Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush.

    Unfortunately, we are nowhere near as effective rushing the passer. Our base defense generates almost no pressure at all and we don't blitz. Carroll and Bradley have barely blitzed all year and they aren't going to start now against a QB like Ryan. They'll be scared of getting burned - any coaching staff would have that fear blitzing Ryan with those receivers. I suspect it might be a case of 'which way are we least likely to get beat?' and they'll try and play bend but don't break. We've played some of the worst offensive lines in the NFL this year and dominated only once (vs Green Bay). Now we're going to try and dominate a decent enough line without our best pass rusher. That'll be very difficult.

    Chris Clemons is a huge miss and although I like Bruce Irvin and believe he will grow into the NFL, I don't think is the game for him. Atlanta is really going to test his ability to defend the run early I fear, and if he struggles I think we'll see Scruggs playing more and more snaps as the game goes on. If we end up fielding a four man line of Bryant, Mebane, Branch and Scruggs more often than not - I don't like our chances of getting pressure on Ryan. Our best chance to do so might be to maybe lean to that side and put more pressure on Bryant to hold up his side of the bargain. We need to be in a position to keep Irvin on the field and he has to make the most of his chances.

    I trust Russell Wilson and our offense to score points too and I don't think it's impossible for us to win a shoot-out. But that's the type of game I think it'll be, and it's not the type that suits us the best. Ryan is going to get time back there and however good Sherman/Browner and the other DB's are, they can't cover Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez forever while Ryan sits in a clean pocket. I expect all three of their key playmakers, plus Ryan, to have a big day.

    When Atlanta's lost playoff games in the past - Ryan has been pressured. New York last year, he had no time. Green Bay before that, the same. Against us I'm worried that won't be the case. So it'll be up to our offense to answer every call. It'll be up to the defense to see if they can bend but not break (tough vs Gonzalez in the red zone). But ultimately I think there's going to come a time in the second half where they edge ahead and pull away - something like 34-20 in the end.

    Maybe the pressure on Ryan/Smith takes its toll? I just think this Falcons team is too good to keep bottling it. 0-4 in the playoffs? That would be some accomplishment given how talented they are. They'll be right on this one and if we're going to beat them, we'll have to do it with equally brilliant offense. I'd love Wilson to do it but I'm not expecting even he to do that.

    Hope I'm completely wrong. I will happily eat crow if I am. I won't boast if I'm right. I want us desperately to win this game. But our biggest off-season priority has to be finding a better pass rush in base defense. If we get that in 2014, we have a shot at going 13-3 ourselves.


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