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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:11 pm 
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If we do get consistent pressure on Ryan we will win for sure. If we dont (which I dont think we will either) we still have a great chance to win this game. Red Zone stops will be key.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:12 pm 
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I really think it's going to come down to our defense keeping them out of the endzone and our offense being able to score some points.

(cliche intended ;) )

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:23 pm 
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scakfan wrote:
What a bunch of negative posts. I gaurantee you that Wilson will be very motivated to amend for what I am sure he considers a meager performance last weeked. We are going to demorilize their D! I think their jaw will be dropped on the sidelines when we start pulling away from them on the scoreboard and their offence will then get desperate for big strikes and a turnover or 2 will rear its ugle head for the Falcons.
The game is the Hawks to lose not the the Falcons to win...



If you just want to read posts that talk about how amazing we are and how much the Falcons suck (they don't), then why open a thread with this title?

RolandDeschain wrote:
Anybody else think this game is a prime opportunity to start blitzing a lot?


There's a reason PC and DB (and a lot of defensive coaches) don't blitz much against top QB's. It'll never be a prime opportunity to blitz Matt Ryan.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:25 pm 
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LawlessHawk wrote:
I really think it's going to come down to our defense keeping them out of the endzone and our offense being able to score some points.

(cliche intended ;) )



I agree. Need to just keep them in front of us and our red zone d will take over. Having watched the Hawks nearly every game I believe we have the best red zone team on both sides of the ball.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:36 pm 
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You simply have to get pressure on Ryan without the blitz. I don't have the stats on me, but I know this year he's had something like a 96.1 rating against the blitz. I'm actually curious as to how good he's been in years past, too.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:37 pm 
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We just gotta play our game, pound them with the run and the bend but don't break D.

I think it was Mark Schlereth that said Seattle was one of the best teams at creating an organic pass rush. Which implies good play from our secondary and running more stunts, twists and forcing the oline to react to changing assignments. This article was pretty interesting on how teams like us without a JJ Watt create pressure without blitzing much.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... week-14-2/

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:40 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
mistaowen wrote:
We looked fantastic at the end of the game sending blitzes on Kirk Cousins even if he is a rookie. Now I doubt we send that type of heat every single down, but having Clemons out must make our coaches realize we need to get creative to get pressure, especially if we as fans can see it. Bruce and Scruggs really started coming hard in their base packages as well after Clem went down, directly at the QB not dancing outside, so maybe the light finally went on for Bruce?

If we don't get pressure I can see this game ending in 14+ point loss.... their passing game is full of allstars. But like you said, the Cards got pressure on Matty Ice and he isn't the same QB when that happens. He likes to force throws when his pocket is collapsing and that bodes very well for our ballhawking secondary if we can jump it. I imagine we will see Earl covering over the top on Browner's side for most of the game and hoping Sherm can do his thing 1 on 1.

I bet we are going to see a whole lot of Marshawn to help keep them off the field a la Giants versus Brady in both superbowls.



Here's the thing though - we as fans see a heavy blitz against a rookie backup who enters the game in the fourth quarter trailing by ten points. We then see the blitz having success. If we tried that tactic against Matt Ryan, you're essentially saying - get to the QB or we're going to get burned. No grey area there. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan - these guys WANT you to blitz. Kirk Cousins doesn't know what he wants as a rookie backup.

We as fans can say, 'well that worked'. But there's a reason why the coaches are sticking with the four man rush. We're not leaving ourselves open to the big play and if we do create pressure we have a lot of opportunistic players in position to capitalise. I have no doubt that we'll continue doing this against Atlanta, hoping that we get the occasional stop and keep them to three points on drives rather than seven. And we want to play our offensive scheme and score more points than them. That's how we'll look at it. That absolutely has to be the game plan. If they go this way and we lose I won't complain because I don't think the alternative of blitz, blitz, blitz will work any better. I think we'll be destroyed doing that.

Maybe they do get creative on some select plays? The thing is, who do you blitz? I think our LB's need to sit in coverage. Earl needs to stay deep and help out the corners. Kam needs to watch Gonzalez. I'm not sure they have many options here.

And one other thing I think may be our downfall - the corner/safety blitz from their defense. They use it a LOT. Washington had success with it last week. Could be an issue.

BlueTalons wrote:
I say we bring the house on blitzes until the Falcons prove they can beat it. If it works keep doing it. If not bring out the Bandit!


It'll be a long day if we do this IMO.


I agree we most likely will see them sticking with base rushes but I wouldn't be shocked if we see more creative schemes. There will be a drop off in play at the Leo position purely from a lack of experience, so I think we should see more assisted pressure from Bruce's side of the field, maybe 5 man rushes. Blitzing constantly would ultimately lead to our loss 9 times out of 10, but we HAVE to get pressure on 3rd downs and if this means more blitzes I think I would be for that. You cannot ask a secondary to stick with Julio Jones/Roddy White/Tony Gonzalez for 6+ seconds the entire game.

The thing I am more excited about is the 'idea' of playing less zone coverage since Matt Ryan doesn't run out of the pocket very often. I am hoping we can line up in man coverage and jam the hell out of their WR's to compensate for the potential of a lesser pass rush. Watching us sit back in soft zones the past few games against mobile quarterbacks has been painful but I understand the need to do it. I am praying the lack of mobility Ryan has will allow our defense to stay away from zones, but who knows how Gus will call the game.

Our offense being able to sustain long drives will be huge on Sunday. If we have to get in a shootout I don't like our chances. Lots of Marshawn with the read option will make me happy.

Who knows, maybe Irvin will come out and play the best game of his career.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:41 pm 
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I agree with English to a certain extent - all of the teams that have had success against the potent passing offenses, like the two Giants SB winners, have been able tp get pressure with rushing 4 and dropping the rest into coverage. Look what happened when we managed that against GB. We probably are able to cover for a second or two longer than the average secondary, but we still need to get to the QB eventually.

I don't think we change what has worked and got us this far though. I think both sides will move the ball, and whether we win or not will depend upon our red zone D. I think a short field suits our D more than most, and we can sell out for the pass whilst still being confident in our ability to stop the run. Tbat is ths key here - if the Falcons pose little threat on the ground, then I think we wi . Since our O hit stride and we started scoring points, I think we beat any team with a one-dimensional offense. I'd say this is pick 'em rather than make the Falcons favourites.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:42 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
Anybody else think this game is a prime opportunity to start blitzing a lot?

Why we will win if we play Blitz...wait...
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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:43 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
RolandDeschain wrote:
I am not underestimating the importance of pressuring the passer, but we've won a lot of games this year with crap pressure put on the opposing QB. Just sayin'.


Sure. But then we haven't played the #1 seed on the road. The best quarterback we've beaten with this situation on the road is Jay Cutler.


Our offense also wasn't up to snuff prior to that. I think people are overrating the loss of Chris Clemons.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:46 pm 
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BlueTalons wrote:
RolandDeschain wrote:
Anybody else think this game is a prime opportunity to start blitzing a lot?

Why we will win if we play Blitz...wait...
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Freddie looks like he's about to get rung-up...

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:47 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:48 pm 
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Fox0r wrote:
Our offense also wasn't up to snuff prior to that. I think people are overrating the loss of Chris Clemons.


Can you explain why?

Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:50 pm 
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No amount of bellyaching makes the fact that we're #1 in the NFL in scoring defense go away. That was despite having no pass rush. That was not some sort of magic or accident. The coaches know we aren't getting pressure. They don't do anything to "fix" it. The fix would be worse than the cure and we are the BEST IN THE NFL. If this is such a "valid concern" why are we #1 in the NFL in scoring defense?

We don't "find a way to win". That's a backhanded compliment, in fact an insult. Like we're just squeaking by with new tricks up our sleeves each week, always on our heels. You know who's on their heels? Our opponents. That's why we lead the NFL in scoring defense. That's why we're like 3rd in margin of victory. We play the same way every week. There's no tricks.

We play defense the same way every time and yet people still don't understand how it works. We don't give up big plays. We are great in the red zone. We make the other team have to string together lots of first downs and then we hold you to a field goal if you survive that gauntlet. We have great players that execute this scheme amazingly well. We do this every game and every game it works.

It's dumbfounding to me that suddenly Atlanta, a team that played the easiest schedule in the NFL and struggled with it, is world beaters. Someone said they're going to beat us by 14! You realize Atlanta has played lots of teams with no pass rush this year, right? Where are all the blow outs from this unstoppable force from Atlanta? Where is this anxiety coming from?

No one knows, it could be a shootout. But, as of now, you have no legitimate argument. It's far, FAR more likely that a team that feasted on poor defenses will then not reach its season average when playing the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.

#1

#1 scoring defense in the NFL. Never had a pass rush. Don't need one. Still #1. Not an illusion. Not a mystery. #1.

Of all the major North American sports, football has the largest element of chance. Atlanta could very well beat us. But it won't be because we don't have a pass rush. Seattle is the better football team and wins this game 65% of the time. Maybe next year we'll draft or trade for someone and get AZ style base pass rush. If that happens, we'll start giving up negative points per game.

But, don't forget, #1. In the entire NFL. Scoring defense.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:53 pm 
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Clemons being out doesn't mean we're going to field 10 guys. Someone else will be on the field to take his place. Last week, we seemed to do just pretty darn dandy with Clemons out. Worst case scenario is a marginal reduction in some aspects of defensive efficiency. Best case, and not at all unlikely, fresh legs and fresh personnel groupings reveals exciting new unprepared for advantages.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:54 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
Fox0r wrote:
Our offense also wasn't up to snuff prior to that. I think people are overrating the loss of Chris Clemons.


Can you explain why?

Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


Part of me wants to believe we overvalue Clem and that Bruce can just slide over and do his job as good if not better. Mostly that's the part of me that's pissed off that he got injured.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:56 pm 
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BullHawk33 wrote:
I agree that we will lose this game if Matt Ryan isn't pressured and can pick and choose his targets at will. That said, we've still managed a way to keep close all year against some very good teams. If we solve this, we win.

I have a TON of faith in our defensive backfield though to make the passes that do get thrown as difficult as possible and the YAC attempts as painful as possible.


I dunno Ryan racked up 400+ yards on the Saints and the Falcons still lost. My boss is a huge Saints fan, grew up in Louisiana played at LSU, he said you guys get up on them early and run the ball down their throat no way you lose. If they perceive the wheels are coming off they will wilt.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 3:56 pm 
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formido wrote:
No amount of bellyaching makes the fact that we're #1 in the NFL in scoring defense go away.


"Bellyaching"

I love it when a valid argument gets the 'bellyaching' treatment.

What a terrific counter.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:00 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
Fox0r wrote:
Our offense also wasn't up to snuff prior to that. I think people are overrating the loss of Chris Clemons.


Can you explain why?

Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


Most of the time, Big Red is playing opposite of Clemons on 1st and 2nd down, if you take out Clem and put in Bruce, it is really a push in terms of rushing the passer -- maybe a slight difference, but negligible in my opinion. For all we know, Bruce could bring MORE consistent pressure given the additional looks and snaps played. Maybe a slight drop in our ability to defend the run, but I have faith in our linebackers' range and ability to close the gaps and make up the difference. Atlanta isn't really a rushing juggernaut, anyhow, and Michael Turner is slow as molasses. Can we really say with confidence that Irvin is a liability in run defense? He hasn't really needed to care about that assignment until now.

The main concern may be on passing downs where we're forced to fill the void left by Bruce moving to Clem's spot, but I feel confident in our team's ability to bring pressure with other looks. Realistically, Bruce wasn't consistently getting a lot of pressure on the QB during passing downs most of the time, anyhow. We haven't really had the world's most dominant pass rush even with Clem and Bruce in the games together at the same time. A huge majority of their sacks came in 3 or so games and we've been fine.

Just my two cents, and I'm not saying I'm right by any means.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:06 pm 
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Their offensive line really isn't much to write home about..

Not having Clemons stings, but I have confidence Irvin is going to get some pressure back there.

All that said.. the games the Falcons lost, Matt Ryan had a sensational day and it wasn't enough. At the end of the day, it's on the Seahawks offense to control clock and score touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:06 pm 
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Actually I take it back. We're OK.. According to NFL Films, we have a six game winning streak against the Falcons... http://www.seahawks.com/videos-photos/v ... 18b4b3ede3

Which means even if we lose, we can just re-write history in our favour anyway.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:07 pm 
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Is it only me who is kind of excited to see how Bruce is going to perform against the run? It might be a bad match up but I want to see how he does.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:07 pm 
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I don't think so, at least IMO. I don't think a lack of pass rush will be the deciding factor in this game as it hasn't been for the majority of games all season it seems. Even in the GB game we barely won even though we sacked AR 8 times!

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:08 pm 
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formido wrote:
Clemons being out doesn't mean we're going to field 10 guys. Someone else will be on the field to take his place. Last week, we seemed to do just pretty darn dandy with Clemons out. Worst case scenario is a marginal reduction in some aspects of defensive efficiency. Best case, and not at all unlikely, fresh legs and fresh personnel groupings reveals exciting new unprepared for advantages.


Y'know, I think the argument can be made pretty easily that Clem's production over the last few years has been as much a result of the scheme as it is a result of the talent of Chris Clemons. I absolutely love the dude and respect the hell out of what he brings, but if Clem is such an amazing talent and an unreplaceable piece of the puzzle that we're doomed without him, where was his production in all the years he was in the NFL prior to becoming the Leo DE in Pete Carroll's 4-3 under defense?

Now we spent a 1st round draft pick on Bruce Irvin because he has all the tools required to play the Leo DE in Pete Carroll's 4-3 under defense. I'm willing to bet that pass rush production from the Leo side of the field won't go down. I'm a little worried about production from the "Raheem Brock" side of the field now that we're going to be relying on Greg Scruggs and a 33 year old workout warrior who hasn't played in 4 years. Scruggs can bring it, but to the same level that Irvin did over there? <shrug> I don't know, but I don't think it will be as big a let down as many are thinking.

Thanks for the pep talk Formido. I've decided that I am no longer worried about our ability to apply pressure to Matt Ryan or the loss of Chris Clemons. the only place where I think Clem is clearly better than Irvin is in run support, but Atlanta sucks at running the ball anyway so I'm not going to worry about it...

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:10 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


I don't agree that he's one of the best pass rushers in the league. He gets sacks, but not consistent pressure. Otherwise we wouldn't be sitting around talking about "no pass rush". Clemons is very hot and cold from play to play and generally our opponents have been unhurried.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:10 pm 
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Falcan Moore wrote:
You simply have to get pressure on Ryan without the blitz. I don't have the stats on me, but I know this year he's had something like a 96.1 rating against the blitz. I'm actually curious as to how good he's been in years past, too.


Yep. I noticed in that game against New Orleans (will watch the Carolina one later), that the times the Saints were able to generate pressure with just 3-4 guys.. Ryan was pressed into making some tough decisions, and that's when he indeed made mistakes. They were few and far between that game, but they did happen..

Meanwhile when the Saints blitzed, it wasn't pretty. Ryan killed them.

Now I will say our personnel is light years better than New Orleans.. but I think Atlanta will actually prefer we blitz.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:16 pm 
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MontanaHawk05 wrote:
theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.


I don't agree that he's one of the best pass rushers in the league. He gets sacks, but not consistent pressure. Otherwise we wouldn't be sitting around talking about "no pass rush". Clemons is very hot and cold from play to play and generally our opponents have been unhurried. Don't ask me how we've managed the #1 scoring defense against one of the toughest schedules without a pass rush, because I haven't figured out how yet.

I think our secondary, honestly, pressures QB's more than anyone else.


Word. I have noticed a lot of qb's either throwing it into the 2nd row or dumping it off to a checkdown for minimal gain against our secondary. I'm not super confident in being able to contain the dynamic trio over there long enough to get sacks, but hopefully we can hold them long enough for Ryan to give up on plays and get rid of the rock.

I like this thread. I went from being so bunged up about our lack of pass rush that I was ready to sell out what we do well for cockameme blitzes from the bandit to saying "meh, we got this".

Thanks English!

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:18 pm 
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formido wrote:
#1 scoring defense in the NFL. Never had a pass rush. Don't need one. Still #1. Not an illusion. Not a mystery. #1.


I think everyone's well aware of that. But you're not really providing anything but vague platitudes as to how Seattle is defying conventional wisdom this way.

It's not like we went undefeated. Our 11-5 was a razor's edge. We faced some very bad quarterbacks (Sanchez, Ponder, Newton, Arizona) who didn't need to be pressured in order to suck, we faced some defensive-oriented teams (Rams, 49ers), and while we also beat some very good QB's, we either barely beat them because of no pass rush (Brady), lost to them because of no pass rush (Stafford), or beat them WITH PASS RUSH (Rodgers). Not to mention Jason Jones providing interior pressure all year.

I'm scratching my head as to how Seattle accomplished the #1 defense without pass rush, but I'm not so quick to just throw one of the cornerstones of modern NFL defenses to the wind unless I get some better analysis as to why.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:38 pm 
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Interesting thread, and I definitely share the OP's concerns.

I think its important to note that pressure doesn't always constitute sacks. I feel like they can scheme some pressure, because all you really need is to get Matt Ryan fading back a little in the pocket and make him uncomfortable. Qb's hate guys around their feet.

I've got my doubts about how well Irvin can hold up and wouldn't be surprised if Scruggs was in there on running downs and Irvin on passing downs.

I wouldn't be surprised if we got thumped by a couple touchdowns, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we thumped them by a couple touchdowns.

Mike Smith reminds me of Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Cowher(until 2005), both of those coaches tightened up to a maddening degree in the playoffs and it reflected in playcalling and the psyche of their teams. When they gambled, it was often needless(Mike Smith last year against the Giants). I'm interested to see how the Falcons come out, I wouldn't be surprised if they started the game firing the ball downfield to try and get up early rather than do what they should do and attack us on the edges with the running game.

Its also important to note that when the Seahawks have brought pressure this year, those rare times, its been very successful. For a team that doesn't blitz much, they time and disguise it tremendously. I'd expect to see more blitzes, not an excessive amount, but enough to make Matt Ryan second guess his pre snap read. Against the Seahawks secondary, that's all that needs to happen. Make Ryan think twice, make him hesitate, make him uncomfortable and we can hold our own in the passing game.

Regardless of what happens, I've enjoyed the hell out of this team this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:40 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
Not being overly negative here... I think we've had a fantastic season. I think we'll come back even stronger next year and if we avoid injuries, could well have a rematch against the Falcons only this time we have the home field advantage. The Seahawks are going in absolutely the right direction, I just think we'll come up short against a #1 seed, 13-3 team on the road. The reason...?

LACK OF PRESSURE ON MATT RYAN

I think we'll struggle, once again, to get pressure in base defense. I watched the Cardinals @ Falcons game and the one thing (only thing?) Arizona does well is pass rush. It amazes me that Ray Horton hasn't got the Cards' Head Coach gig simply to keep him as part of that franchise. They got at Ryan and forced mistakes. He's not too mobile, he likes to have time. Give him that time and he'll kill you - especially with the options he has at WR/TE. He threw FIVE interceptions against Arizona and scored no touchdowns. They scraped to victory 23-19 despite Arizona having 70 total passing yards in that game. The reason? Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush.

Unfortunately, we are nowhere near as effective rushing the passer. Our base defense generates almost no pressure at all and we don't blitz. Carroll and Bradley have barely blitzed all year and they aren't going to start now against a QB like Ryan. They'll be scared of getting burned - any coaching staff would have that fear blitzing Ryan with those receivers. I suspect it might be a case of 'which way are we least likely to get beat?' and they'll try and play bend but don't break. We've played some of the worst offensive lines in the NFL this year and dominated only once (vs Green Bay). Now we're going to try and dominate a decent enough line without our best pass rusher. That'll be very difficult.

Chris Clemons is a huge miss and although I like Bruce Irvin and believe he will grow into the NFL, I don't think is the game for him. Atlanta is really going to test his ability to defend the run early I fear, and if he struggles I think we'll see Scruggs playing more and more snaps as the game goes on. If we end up fielding a four man line of Bryant, Mebane, Branch and Scruggs more often than not - I don't like our chances of getting pressure on Ryan. Our best chance to do so might be to maybe lean to that side and put more pressure on Bryant to hold up his side of the bargain. We need to be in a position to keep Irvin on the field and he has to make the most of his chances.

I trust Russell Wilson and our offense to score points too and I don't think it's impossible for us to win a shoot-out. But that's the type of game I think it'll be, and it's not the type that suits us the best. Ryan is going to get time back there and however good Sherman/Browner and the other DB's are, they can't cover Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez forever while Ryan sits in a clean pocket. I expect all three of their key playmakers, plus Ryan, to have a big day.

When Atlanta's lost playoff games in the past - Ryan has been pressured. New York last year, he had no time. Green Bay before that, the same. Against us I'm worried that won't be the case. So it'll be up to our offense to answer every call. It'll be up to the defense to see if they can bend but not break (tough vs Gonzalez in the red zone). But ultimately I think there's going to come a time in the second half where they edge ahead and pull away - something like 34-20 in the end.

Maybe the pressure on Ryan/Smith takes its toll? I just think this Falcons team is too good to keep bottling it. 0-4 in the playoffs? That would be some accomplishment given how talented they are. They'll be right on this one and if we're going to beat them, we'll have to do it with equally brilliant offense. I'd love Wilson to do it but I'm not expecting even he to do that.

Hope I'm completely wrong. I will happily eat crow if I am. I won't boast if I'm right. I want us desperately to win this game. But our biggest off-season priority has to be finding a better pass rush in base defense. If we get that in 2014, we have a shot at going 13-3 ourselves.


You do realize you said we would lose against Washington don't you? You are wrong again.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:45 pm 
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MontanaHawk05 wrote:
I don't agree that he's one of the best pass rushers in the league. He gets sacks, but not consistent pressure. Otherwise we wouldn't be sitting around talking about "no pass rush". Clemons is very hot and cold from play to play and generally our opponents have been unhurried.


I bet there's not another pass rusher in the NFL with +30 sacks over the last three years playing as the sole pass rusher in a four man base front.

How many other productive pass rushers play in a four man front with guys like Bryant, Mebane and Branch? Bryant - 0 sacks in 2012. Branch - 1 sack in 2012. Mebane - 3 sacks in 2012.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:19 pm 
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I am sure Pete Carroll shares the same concerns as you do and will understand the need to pressure Ryan. With Clemons out I dont think Pete will wait long to bring extra guys to compensate for his loss.

We win

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
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I hope so, but my observation is that Pete feels he'll get more turnovers from dropping linebackers into coverage than from blitzing them.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:24 pm 
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It doesn't help that Marshawn Lynch missed practice for the second day in a row.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:27 pm 
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MontanaHawk05 wrote:
I'm scratching my head as to how Seattle accomplished the #1 defense without pass rush, but I'm not so quick to just throw one of the cornerstones of modern NFL defenses to the wind unless I get some better analysis as to why.


Isn't it obvious? I don't mean that in a sniping or smartassy way. Honest. Our D-line is good, but not elite. Same with the linebackers, though they are improving and we might consider it an elite unit next year. Secondary, on the other...Elite.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:27 pm 
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Dirty Bird wrote:
It doesn't help that Marshawn Lynch missed practice for the second day in a row.


That's a none issue. He's taken many days off during the week this year to keep him fresh. This is just another example of that. It's already been discussed as such.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:29 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
MontanaHawk05 wrote:
I'm scratching my head as to how Seattle accomplished the #1 defense without pass rush, but I'm not so quick to just throw one of the cornerstones of modern NFL defenses to the wind unless I get some better analysis as to why.


Isn't it obvious? I don't mean that in a sniping or smartassy way. Honest. Our D-line is good, but not elite. Same with the linebackers, though they are improving and we might consider it an elite unit next year. Secondary, on the other...Elite.


Well, the paradigm has always been that good QB's will find windows against any secondary if they're given long enough. (Russell Wilson has taken that paradigm and shoved it into overdrive this year.) Given Kam and Browner's susceptibilities...I dunno. Maybe a secondary scheme can substitute for pass rush? I just wish I had X's and O's on it.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:33 pm 
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MontanaHawk05 wrote:
Well, the paradigm has always been that good QB's will find windows against any secondary if they're given long enough. (Russell Wilson has taken that paradigm and shoved it into overdrive this year.) Given Kam and Browner's susceptibilities...I dunno. Maybe a secondary scheme can substitute for pass rush? I just wish I had X's and O's on it.


That has definitely been the thinking for as long as I can remember. Seems like we might be inventing a new way of thinking, though. I'd love to see one of the geniuses at Football Outsiders or one of our resident Xs & Os gurus break it down somehow.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:37 pm 
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Dirty Bird wrote:
It doesn't help that Marshawn Lynch missed practice for the second day in a row.


That's been par for the course this season. There's no reason to expect you to know that, however.

Back to the OP. I've only watched Redskins game three times now and I haven't noticed any drop off in pressure
when Clemons came out. As other have noted, the pressure actually seemed to increase. Griffin's lack of mobility
was a factor, the backup coming in was a factor, but it was still their O-Line in the game.

We got burned a couple of times during the last couple of drives, but those still stalled and we were focused on stopping
the quick score, I believe.

Back to the DVR!


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:46 pm 
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Clemons has 3 more sacks than Irvin, while playing, probably twice as many snaps. (Couldn't find the info, so not sure of the snap count). Its going to be hard for anyone to prove to me that we'll lose a ton on pass rush from the LEO spot. Might lose some from the Raheem Brock role, but I feel Bruce can pressure the qb just as well as Clem. I do feel the coaching staff finds Irvin a liability in the run game, hence why Clem was still the full time LEO.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:50 pm 
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I don't feel losing Clem hurts in with the pass rush as much as it could hurt us in the running game.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:53 pm 
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lol did not read.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:54 pm 
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The best way to compensate for the lack of pressure is Marshaun Lynch. Keep Matty Ice off the field. Bully and wear down the Falcons defense. See how/if Ryan and Smith get antsy with lopsided TOP (they will).

The Hawks can control and dominate this game, defensively and offensively, through their OL.

The Hawks lack of pressure is kind of by design. Keep everything in front and make a team earn HARD yards and sustain punishment for there drives. Its worked all year, no reason to think it won't this time.


Last edited by pehawk on Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:55 pm 
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seahawk2k wrote:
I don't feel losing Clem hurts in with the pass rush as much as it could hurt us in the running game.


The Falcons are probably the worst rushing team left in the playoffs, and that includes Green Bay.

Their interior line is very paltry and Michael Turner runs like he's 50.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:56 pm 
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CANHawk wrote:
formido wrote:
Clemons being out doesn't mean we're going to field 10 guys. Someone else will be on the field to take his place. Last week, we seemed to do just pretty darn dandy with Clemons out. Worst case scenario is a marginal reduction in some aspects of defensive efficiency. Best case, and not at all unlikely, fresh legs and fresh personnel groupings reveals exciting new unprepared for advantages.


Y'know, I think the argument can be made pretty easily that Clem's production over the last few years has been as much a result of the scheme as it is a result of the talent of Chris Clemons. I absolutely love the dude and respect the hell out of what he brings, but if Clem is such an amazing talent and an unreplaceable piece of the puzzle that we're doomed without him, where was his production in all the years he was in the NFL prior to becoming the Leo DE in Pete Carroll's 4-3 under defense?

Now we spent a 1st round draft pick on Bruce Irvin because he has all the tools required to play the Leo DE in Pete Carroll's 4-3 under defense. I'm willing to bet that pass rush production from the Leo side of the field won't go down. I'm a little worried about production from the "Raheem Brock" side of the field now that we're going to be relying on Greg Scruggs and a 33 year old workout warrior who hasn't played in 4 years. Scruggs can bring it, but to the same level that Irvin did over there? <shrug> I don't know, but I don't think it will be as big a let down as many are thinking.

Thanks for the pep talk Formido. I've decided that I am no longer worried about our ability to apply pressure to Matt Ryan or the loss of Chris Clemons. the only place where I think Clem is clearly better than Irvin is in run support, but Atlanta sucks at running the ball anyway so I'm not going to worry about it...


Couldn't agree more with both of you. Our pass rushing ability has been our weakest link all year and we've been just fine. I'd be worried if it was Earl Thomas or Sherm that went down. We can compensate with the loss of Clem. I love Clem but its not like we're losing Demarcus Ware or Dwight Freeney. I honestly don't think our pass rush will noticeably suffer. Losing Clem's defense against the run is more of a concern for me but the Falcons blow at running the ball.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:06 pm 
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I'm going to say the same thing about this 2012 Falcons team that I said about the 2010 Saints..

look at their schedule! easier than the 2010 Saints, all those fantastic numbers everyone keeps talking about came against 13 teams that finished under .500

on the other hand the Seahawks 11-5 came against a schedule where 4 of their opponents made the playoffs, 3 of which are still in... the Falcs?

oh wait did the Seahawks beat 3 of those teams still in the playoffs already in reg season? and the Falcs?

c'mon man

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:13 pm 
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HawkGANG wrote:
Couldn't agree more with both of you. Our pass rushing ability has been our weakest link all year and we've been just fine.


Could it not be argued that we've won in spite of this issue rather than being 'fine'?

After we played Tom Brady, these are the QB's we faced...

Alex Smith, Matt Stafford, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, John Skelton, Ryan Fitzgerald, Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford, injured Robert Griffin III.

None of those QB's... IMO... capitalise on a lack of pressure as well as Matt Ryan does throwing to White, Jones and Gonzalez.

That is why I'm a little concerned here. The lack of pass rush has still been an issue, we've just found other ways to win. That could easily happen again against Atlanta. But this could be also be an overdue game where a lack of pass rush finally comes home to roost.


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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:22 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
None of those QB's... IMO... capitalise on a lack of pressure as well as Matt Ryan does throwing to White, Jones and Gonzalez.


I'm not convinced that's Matt Ryan so much as his ridiculous complement of receivers.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:27 pm 
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Actually, the pass rush isn't the biggest worry for me when it comes to winning this game. The biggest factor Seattle needs to watch is not turning the ball over. Atlanta's strength is forcing the turnover on defense so if we can hold onto the ball, drive down the field consistently, and punch in for TD's we have a very good chance of winning. Yeah, the Falcons have a good tight end, the Pat's had two of them and also a deadly running game. Atlanta doesn't have as good of a running game as NE. We were able to force Brady into turnovers, really one of the only games he had this season turning the ball over more than once. We don't need to blitz like crazy, just play the game they have been playing and force the check downs and such and get those timely stops in the red zone. All you can do is limit good QB's really unless you have 4 all pro D-Linemen constantly destroying the QB. I think we'll be fine and win this game, 24-17.

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 Post subject: Re: Why I think we will lose this game
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:31 pm 
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theENGLISHseahawk wrote:
HawkGANG wrote:
None of those QB's... IMO... capitalise on a lack of pressure as well as Matt Ryan does throwing to White, Jones and Gonzalez.



against what teams? the Packers? the Patriots? the Bears? the Niners?

let me ask you this, have the Falcons even seen an Elite Defense this year?

Hawks have, they beat em all once..

I,m looking through the ATL schedule and I cant find the elite defenses? fact of the matter is have the Falcons even played an elite team all year long? maybe, if you considered the Skins were Elite entering week 5 @ 2-2... :?

maybe the Giants or the Saints were the Elite Ds they hammered on week in and week out? lol

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