Expectations for the 2013 season?

kearly

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Here are mine:

#1: The Seahawks become a team known more for offense in 2013.

Seattle's offense started the first half of last season well below average, yet were so hot in the 2nd half of the year that they ended up FO's #1 offense, even when counting the first half (it wasn't a weighted calculation, either). Seattle's redzone numbers got silly towards the end.

I don't know if Percy Harvin will get a 1000 yards this season, but he's not here for that. He's here because Seattle's entire offense is built around the idea of giving defenses too much to defend. It's all about stretching defenses thin and attacking the weak spots that appear as a result. Seattle was already doing that magnificently without Harvin, and Harvin will add an extra dimension because of his big play ability and versatility. He'll make Tate, Rice, Miller, Lynch and Wilson better even when the ball doesn't go his way.

Christine Michael will probably have about as much impact as a rookie Kendall Hunter did (5.2 YPC), but it's probably Luke Willson who will make the biggest impact outside of Harvin. Willson wasn't a prolific college TE, but he has size and speed at TE that only exists a few places in the league. And as far as I know, we've never seen a starting 251 pound TE that could run a 4.51 here before. He's going to also add a new dimension on offense.

When I look at Seattle's offense, it's not really that they have the most elite collection of weapons ever assembled, it's just that they have a group of very good players that can all make defenders pay for not respecting them. And you can't cover every base. Not with just 11 defenders. Defenses will be stretched more than ever in 2013 when facing the Seahawks.

I also think that Wilson elevated himself to an even higher level last season than what he was even at Wisconsin- and who's to say he's at his ceiling?

Then there's also the fact that Seattle will be starting with the read option as a wrinkle in week 1. Last year, it wasn't introduced until there were just 5 regular season games left to play.

And it's not like the Seahawks have a tough defensive schedule (outside the division) either.

The Seahawks probably won't lead the NFL in yards next season, but they might lead the NFL in scoring and I'd actually be surprised if they didn't lead the NFL in offensive efficiency.

#2: The defense might take a step back

Antoine Winfield was, IMO, our best offseason addition that didn't involve draft picks. He's a difference maker. Bennett and Avril fit what Seattle does. Seattle added future defensive starters in the draft.

That said, I see quite a bit of downside on defense. Bennett has the shoulder problem. Avril has a foot problem. Clemons blew out his ACL in January, plays defensive line, and is over 30. Winfield is 36, and last I checked, is not a cyborg, though Raul Ibanez might be. Irvin won't play until our 5th game, at which point he'll have question marks. Our linebackers are being moved around- some of them in ways that seem ill-advised. Will Chancellor be motivated now that he's been paid megabucks? (Actually, I think Chancellor will have a great season, but I think this is a valid concern). Will Bennett see enough reps at DE for his value to emerge? Will interior pass rush on 1st and 2nd downs remain a problem? (...Probably).

Maybe our defense is AMAZING, it certainly could be if everything breaks right. But there is so much that could go wrong too.

Another thing- last year's defense was built to play from behind. It wasn't built to hold leads. Pete tailored his Seahawks defenses to smoosh the strong side rushing attack, while often rushing just one pass rusher that was an honest threat. His secondaries played quite a bit of soft zone when holding leads. Seattle got a 4 and out against Tom Brady to win a game, but otherwise their ability to stop late game charges was disastrous last season, and I think that's on the coaching and scheme. The Seahawks are going to hold more leads than ever in 2013 because of their offense, and while that's obviously a good thing, it also means that our teams' defensive statistics will probably take a hit in the process.

Even with all the talent Seattle has, I'd be a little surprised if they repeated at the #1 scoring defense. The only way I see it is if Dan Quinn and the new wrinkles he's installing prove to be a massive upgrade over what Bradley did for us the last few years.

#3: The Seahawks probably won't win the division unless they sweep the 49ers.

Seattle has five 10am starts to the 49ers two. Further, the Seahawks get their toughest out of conference games on the road (usually at 10am) whereas the 49ers get them at home. It's a huge advantage knowing that all you have to do on the road is beat easy teams, compared to your rival who has to beat the best away from home at 10am no less.

The 49ers usually take care of business, and if they had a real weakness before, it was the erratic nature of Alex Smith. Kaepernick can be game planned by a good coach with a fast defense, but most teams have had a very hard time stopping him. Kaepernick's job is so freaking easy, and that ease has led to remarkable consistency given how undeveloped he still is. I think the 49ers will probably lose 1-2 games against teams not named the Seahawks. If Seattle splits the series, it probably won't be enough.

#4: Russell Wilson will win NFL MVP, and maybe Superbowl XLVIII.

Over his last 13 games, excluding the obvious outlier dropfest in SF where Wilson actually played very well, he had a total passer rating of 115. It would have been the 3rd best passer rating in NFL history had he done that all year. He also rushed for nearly a 900 yards per 16 games pace over his last 7 contests.

Wilson will continue that extremely high level of play, now with even more weapons on offense and a full season of read option. It will be a season for the ages.

#5: John Schneider will win executive of the year.

It might be the dumbest award in sports, but you'd have to be pretty hopeless to not notice the impact PC/JS have had on the NFL landscape. The writers had an excuse in 2012 to be idiots, but I'm not sure they'll have one in 2013.
 

Lady Talon

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1. I expect the offense to be simply overwhelming to defenses. Defending the read-option against a stacked backfield, a receiving corps that was already efficient and added a nightmare to match up with in PH, not to mention RWs talent, motor, etc, will just not be possible UNLESS our play calling remains as vanilla as it was at times last season. Can talk about defenses "figuring out" the read-option, but defense is a game of superior numbers. Unless they know what play call is coming there's just no way to shut it down for long considering they can't maintain superior numbers against both the pass and the run simultaneously.

2. The defense will take a hit, but not a huge one, I expect a top ten defense yardage wise. I do expect the offense to sustain more and more drives, keep our defense fresher, and force teams to abandon the run early and pass to win. The area I want to see improve however, is sacks and 3rd down efficiency. If those numbers improve dramatically, it would sure offset losing the top scoring/4th? in yardage defense for me.

3. We need to win every divisional match up, period. Considering our 10 am starts, even if the 9ers descend into mediocrity, the Rams will probably surprise and challenge us for the title late in the season. Call me silly, but I considered the Rams more deadly then the 49ers even last season just not near as consistent. The 9ers may have given up once we went up 21-0 in the Clink, but I don't think the Rams would so obviously quit if we went up 42-0 on them, even in the Clink.
 

RolandDeschain

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kearly":2f7kst4k said:
The Seahawks probably won't lead the NFL in yards next season, but they might lead the NFL in scoring and I'd actually be surprised if they didn't lead the NFL in offensive efficiency.
I'd like to point out that our special teams play a big role in this. We often start drives at the 25, 30, 35, 40, etc. yard lines. Consistently having a shorter field to travel down to reach the end zone also plays a big role in total yardage, which is just another reason why total yards is mostly a dumb statistic to look at for anything. I wish the NFL.com site would stop using total yards to rank offenses and defenses with.

Also, I think with our offense spelling our defense a lot more this year, our defense will be able to mask its deficiencies more in 2013. I expect the Seahawks defense to be #1 in scoring again; but your points are all valid, I just think they won't hurt us much.

Great stuff as usual, Kearly.
 

uncle fester

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Great points all round.

One thing I think will happen is Zach Miller's catches will increase noticeably. He was developing a great rapport with Wilson towards the end of last season and, with all the other threats on this offense, D coordinators are going to have to let him go in order to shut down other avenues.
 

themunn

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I disagree our defense is built to play from behind. It's at its best at the two extremes, behind by 10 or up by 10, because we have extraordinary personnel for defending the run, and extraordinary personnel for defending the pass, but not at the same time
 

MizzouHawkGal

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I shall be short and sweet in my response given that's exactly what I am.....

1. Yup
2. Maybe, not ready to concede that our new scheme will fail.
3. Disagree...Superbowl loser vs. the Rams and you're talking Wilson against Bradford no sneaky this time (remember I live in Missouri I know way more about the Rams than I care to, seriously can you help me move? :)).
4. Yup
5. Yup

You did forget point 6....we're going to win that game in New York on February 2nd against Denver if Peyton sacks up and doesn't do his usual playoff collapse if not, welcome a rematch with Houston.
 

seahawksTopGear

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My expectations. Seahawks are not going to be the underdogs in any of the games they play this year. Can they handle it?

Week 1. Tough game at Carolina. Looking at their schedule if they don't start out with a win they are probably going to crumble. Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.

Week 2. San Francisco has been thinking about coming back and getting revenge all summer. Coach H is going to have them fine tuned to our weaknesses and it is going to be a fight. Even if they loose expect other teams to get a lot of info on us.

Week 4. Another 10am (texas time) game against a tough tough team. They are going to be pissed if we go to their house and they are the underdogs.

If we are going to make it unscathed Kearly has to be way off on his defense being weaker prediction. My concern is that he is not usually wrong
 

RolandDeschain

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seahawksTopGear":1yqiu3f7 said:
Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.
Give me a break. Not even close. We would have to go like 1-15 this year for Carroll to have a chance at losing his job.
 

MizzouHawkGal

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Well he's flat wrong this time. He isn't Jesus and he's going to find that fact out really quick it seems. I figure 3-1 in our first 4 is quite reasonable or do you think Cam "I am a fan of the Falcons except for 2 games" actually has his mentality straight? Against Russell Wilson? Come again.
 

MizzouHawkGal

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RolandDeschain":3dckb8tc said:
seahawksTopGear":3dckb8tc said:
Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.
Give me a break. Not even close. We would have to go like 1-15 this year for Carroll to have a chance at losing his job.
More like 0-16. I smell troll......
 

Largent80

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I am not sold on the D-Line until I see a pass rush.

Quinn is a new D coordinator, and is an X factor. All of those injuries listed is a major concern.

Winfield should shore up the slot position nicely, and Wagner having that good first year is great for the LB corps.

Offense has the benefit of some new weapons and the wraps will be off of our QB from the get-go. The rushing attack is going to be hard to stop if the O-line continues to play well.
 
A

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I'm going to consider this my last-ditch attempt to clue everybody in on this 10am start thing that has everybody's panties in a wad:

1.) With the exception of the Houston game which kicks off at noon, all of the games being referred to as "10am starts" all begin at 1:00pm local time. The only place on this earth that the game kicks off at 10:00am is within the pacific time zone.

2.) Anybody looking at statistics regarding the success or failure of the Seahawks winning games beginning at that particular time, need not look any further than:
A.) These games all were played by less-than-stellar Seahawks teams of the past.
B.) These games occurred after relatively long airplane flights too close to game time.
C.) These games were played in situations where the crowd noise occurred during offense.

3.) In the age of Pete Carroll and John Schneider, this Seahawks team will be flying out on Friday instead of Saturday. By game-time this year, the team will have slept in those timezones a total of twice before the ball leaves the tee.

For the love of everything sacred, the only folks that will not be ready to go for those games will be the groggy people of the west coast who went out partying the night before. This Seahawks squad, the strength and contitioning staff, and the coaches, are very aware of what is at stake for away games played such a long distance from home. Everything that can be done to insure every player is dialed in to smash heads will be done.

So, quit whining about not being able to sleep in, don't assume that the team has the same hangover you have, and stop calling them 10:00am starts. They are simply away games in hostile territory, and absolutely nothing else.

That is all.
 

RolandDeschain

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Houston, you damn near made me cry with the beauty of that post. The whole 10am thing is almost entirely psychosomatic. You can't get real freaking jet lag travelling within the continental United States. (If you claim you have, see the second sentence of this reply.) We are a tough, talented team and will play like one no matter what time we start at.
 

Barthawk

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http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/san- ... rence.html

It is a real thing.. teams from the west coast playing on the East Coast are 41-98 in the past 10 years. Seattle is 7-20 from 2002-2011. That includes Seahawks teams that made the playoffs in 6 out of those 10 years and were able to compile a 7-20 record when playing on east coast time.

I realize some of this skewed by the fact that the Niners, Cards, Raiders were not exactly stellar teams during that stretch, but Seattle and the Chargers were perennial playoff teams.

The road wins during that span:

2002- ATL
2003- None
2004- Tampa (also beat NO, but I believe they are central time)
2005- only games in the EST were losses at JAC and WSH early in the season
2006- None
2007- Philly
2008- none
2009- none
2010- Chicago
2011- Chicago, NYG

I am missing one game, but I am thinking it is the MNF game in Philly (2005) that they could be counting w/o looking at the time the game was played
 

Blitzhawk

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KCHawkGirl":2in92o9m said:
RolandDeschain":2in92o9m said:
seahawksTopGear":2in92o9m said:
Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.
Give me a break. Not even close. We would have to go like 1-15 this year for Carroll to have a chance at losing his job.
More like 0-16. I smell troll......

Not positive, but I read it as him talking about Carolina crumbling and their coach being on the hot seat though I am not sure I agree w/ either sentiment 100%. Maybe the coach on hot seat part a bit buy not after 1 game.
 

volsunghawk

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Barthawk":samgiu6r said:
http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/san-francisco-49ers/78312-east-coast-west-coast-does-really-make-difference.html

It is a real thing.. teams from the west coast playing on the East Coast are 41-98 in the past 10 years. Seattle is 7-20 from 2002-2011. That includes Seahawks teams that made the playoffs in 6 out of those 10 years and were able to compile a 7-20 record when playing on east coast time.

I realize some of this skewed by the fact that the Niners, Cards, Raiders were not exactly stellar teams during that stretch, but Seattle and the Chargers were perennial playoff teams.

The road wins during that span:

2002- ATL
2003- None
2004- Tampa (also beat NO, but I believe they are central time)
2005- only games in the EST were losses at JAC and WSH early in the season
2006- None
2007- Philly
2008- none
2009- none
2010- Chicago
2011- Chicago, NYG

I am missing one game, but I am thinking it is the MNF game in Philly (2005) that they could be counting w/o looking at the time the game was played

The Seahawks and Chargers in that time frame were good, but not really great teams, frankly.

Has anyone gone back and looked beyond the past decade? How did the late 80s/early 90s San Francisco 49ers do on the East Coast, for example? How about those late 70's/early 80's Raiders teams? I want to know how talented, top-of-the-league teams performed under those same constraints. Because I think this Seahawks team will be of that quality, not of the 9-7, winning a division title in part because all the other teams in the NFCW are awful quality.
 

Attyla the Hawk

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Barthawk":cg52blm0 said:
http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/san-francisco-49ers/78312-east-coast-west-coast-does-really-make-difference.html

It is a real thing.. teams from the west coast playing on the East Coast are 41-98 in the past 10 years. Seattle is 7-20 from 2002-2011. That includes Seahawks teams that made the playoffs in 6 out of those 10 years and were able to compile a 7-20 record when playing on east coast time.

I realize some of this skewed by the fact that the Niners, Cards, Raiders were not exactly stellar teams during that stretch, but Seattle and the Chargers were perennial playoff teams.

Additionally, I believe the style of play factors into that. Teams whose success is largely predicated on precision, timing and tempo seem to be more affected than teams who thrive in playing physically.

In keeping with the thread however, I'd agree that statistically, Seattle will take a step back. Not out of the top 5. But when you're the top scoring defense and top 4 in yards allowed, it's hard to go anywhere but backward.

Still, I expect we'll score more to start games. Seattle is at it's best when we can field specialist packages on the field. We don't have many everydown players good against both the run and the pass. I have to wonder if we're going to protect the defense more this year by creating scenarios where the defense can cheat personnel wise.

I see Winfield as a huge question mark. It's entirely age driven. How effective will he be when he does lose a step? At this age, that loss will seemingly come overnight. Like an NBA guard who goes from 15 pts/gm to 4pts/gm in the span of one offseason.

Despite the injury, I see Bennett as being the key signing. He's probably as close to Mebane as an every down player that we have in the DL group. I expect him to take up a lot of the slack when Clemons is out/ineffective. His versatility and ability to play DT/DE is going to be made use of.

From the rookies, I don't know what to expect from Hill. I want to expect a lot. I'll be pleased if he's league average because we could use some of that in our base personnel package. If he's more than that, it'll be another case of this FO creating value where it doesn't appear to exist.

Willson is the latest in a series of attempts to introduce a joker TE. Here's to hoping he keeps us from drafting a TE in round 1 next year.

I will be most interested in watching Williams develop at Bryant's spot. Bryant, despite his total absence of pass rush, has shown by his absence in 2 of the last three years -- that the two gap 5 tech is a cornerstone role for this defense. When he's been out due to injury or when he's playing less effectively through injury -- our defense suffered tremendously. Williams I believe is Bryant's successor. I'll be looking to see glimpses of that this year. I'm half expecting him to play significant snaps there as I don't harbor much expectation that Bryant will have an injury free campaign.

Defensively, I believe we'll try to force the issue more and expose our secondary to a higher degree. I don't think our pass rush with the front four will be sufficient, or even as tepid as it was last year. I don't expect Clemons to start on opening week and I don't expect him to be effective until halfway through the season. If he does aggravate his knee in the same predictable way that Carpenter did, it will be disastrous for our playoff hopes. I don't see 11 wins if we don't have Clemons healthy for a good portion of the year. And if the same fate befalls Clemons, I think quite rightly Pete is going to take very justified criticism for that.

I want to like the Avril signing. But I'm very much in a prove it mindset. I want to see what he does without Suh commanding double teams next to him. By accounts of Lions fans, he pretty much sounds exactly like Bruce Irvin.

Offensively, I really hope to see Carpenter have an injury free season. I feel as strongly about Carp at LG as I did about Okung at LT when he was being criticized for being injury prone and not living up to his draft pick. Okung you could see was quality and that his injuries were pretty fluke circumstances. With Carpenter, I see the same quality. And I think he had one knee injury that was significantly mismanaged by the club. I am eager to see him have a good stretch of availability. I see he has quality. And putting that next to Okung and Unger would elevate our offensive productivity tremendously.

Sweezy I have extremely high hopes for. I can't wait to see what kind of improvement he can make in year 2 of his conversion.

Outside of Harvin's influence -- I'm really interested in watching Turbin this year. It took Lynch time to really get how the scheme works. I'd like to see Turbin's efficiency in the system in his second year. I think more than Michael, Turbin is going to be a key contributor this year. Especially since he's quite good at pass pro and receiving. He should have a lot of opportunities to be in the game. Lynch needs someone to help shoulder the load and the team needs that timeshare back to be highly effective and well rounded.
 

RolandDeschain

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Let's be realistic, the Seahawks were only a really good team for about two seasons during the Holmgren era. You're far more likely to lose on the road than at home no matter what. When teams have spent 4+ days at an east coast location getting used to the time zone change, it still hasn't mattered. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/s ... id=3632212

You didn't see the 49ers of the 80s and early 90s losing a bunch of road games. Here, I took the liberty of checking. Here are how many road and home losses the 49ers had from 1983 through 1993.

1983: 2 road losses, 4 home
1984: 0 road losses, 1 home
1985: 3 road losses, 3 home
1986: 3 road losses, 2 home
1987: 1 road loss, 1 home
1988: 2 road losses, 4 home
1989: 0 road losses, 2 home
1990: 0 road losses, 2 home
1991: 5 road losses, 1 home
1992: 1 road loss, 1 home
1993: 4 road, 2 home

Total: 21 road losses, 23 home losses. For an 11-year period, the 49ers lost more at home than they did on the road in the regular season.

Jet lag, my arse. :)
 

Sports Hernia

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Total and complete domination that ends with Paul
Allen holding up the Lombardi Trophy, I honestly feel this way, and have never felt that way about any Seattle team.

They no longer have the "weak link" Gus Bradley and his passive weak zone schemes, and replaced him with a d-coord that vows to be aggressive.

They've addressed their weeknesses thru the draft, trades, and FA.

They've added weapons to an already potent offense.

Russell Wilson!

Seattle exposed SF and Kraepernick that good teams will exploit that!
 

seahawksTopGear

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KCHawkGirl":1s67zu5s said:
RolandDeschain":1s67zu5s said:
seahawksTopGear":1s67zu5s said:
Basically the coach knows that his job is riding on this game.
Give me a break. Not even close. We would have to go like 1-15 this year for Carroll to have a chance at losing his job.
More like 0-16. I smell troll......

A million apologies. I meant Ron Rivera's job is at stake this season with the Panthers. If he cant win the high profile games at home and build momentum he is not going to playoffs this year and wont be back.

What I am trying to say is that allthough we are a much better team than Carolina they have a lot at stake on this game. It does not help that it is at ten in the morning on the road
 
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