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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:18 am 
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Point #1: Totally agree about the offense.

Point #2: I think the defense holds steady this year. That might not be enough to take the #1 scoring position again, but then again, who's going to take the crown from us? See Point 3

Point #3: The 49ers defense has a far greater chance of regressing than we do. While Kaepernick should do enough to keep their defense off the field, they're also going to be playing a lot of slim margin games and frankly, their defense trended downwards last season, and unless their draft picks pan out huge, they got weaker in the secondary which was already 'deficient'. If Seattle is going to be known for offense, that's going to go double for the 49ers, but I think they'll end up like the Packers. It's all on the QB.

Point #4: Wilson isn't far enough along in the public eye to win MVP. He'll probably be worthy of consideration, and he probably should win it, but if Peyton Manning or Tom Brady have good seasons again, they'll get the nod by default. It's stupid, but the sportswriters are stupid. However, Super Bowl MVP is definitely in the cards.

Point #5: The sportswriters will also probably give the nod to someone else over Schneider. Again, because they're stupid. It won't matter. Seattle extended Schneider, and he's primed for a dynastic run which is more important.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:27 am 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
You didn't see the 49ers of the 80s and early 90s losing a bunch of road games.


These teams were an outlier. When you have multiple Hall of Fame players all playing in their primes -- along with a generous helping of marginal pro bowl mates -- you're going to be successful anywhere. Those teams were great defensively. That gets lost in the WCO/finesse legacy. But those teams also dominated with the run and by being a top 5 defense year in and year out.

If anything, adding the niners of that era only supports the notion that teams that can play physical and tough tend to buck the 10am start trend. You don't need to be as precise and finely tuned to physically maul your opponent.


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:39 am 
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Attyla the Hawk wrote:
These teams were an outlier.


Fine. Go look up the road/home loss numbers for some east coast team that was mediocre for a long period of time, and let's see if there is a clearly definable trend. FYI, Football Outsiders determined that almost every NFL team has an 8.5% home advantage, so it would have to be a swing noticeably larger than that for it to be an outlier potentially attributable to time zone change/jet lag.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:01 am 
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Attyla the Hawk wrote:
Additionally, I believe the style of play factors into that. Teams whose success is largely predicated on precision, timing and tempo seem to be more affected than teams who thrive in playing physically.


I agree with this thought. This team is light years ahead of past teams in terms of style of play. No more finesse, all kick-ass fueled by urine and sour wine.

I think folks here hung up on these long-distance road games in the early timeslot need to realize, also, that three hours later in the day might be counterproductive to a team that thrives on physicality. Reason? Let's say that you are a go-get-'em type, like an Earl Thomas, who is literally chomping at the bit to get on the field and tackle somebody. You are going to be pacing around in a froth for an extra three hours when you could be using that energy against the opponent in the now. How much energy is expelled with another three hours of waiting? I guarantee you Earl is up at about 6:00am already preparing himself to play.

I'll be the first to admit that I am by no means an expert on sports science or the physiology of an athlete's body. I can only speak from experience, and say that whenever I look back at my most physically productive sector of time within a given work day, the mid-day time-slot finds me getting the most stuff done in an efficient manner and with the least amount fatigue slowing me down. In the late afternoon (and especially after lunch) I want to take a nap. Sure, I'm pushing 50, but this has been true since my early 20's. I've always been a full-throttle guy who gets stuff done early then hits cruise control in the heat of the afternoon. I say the players are the same way or they don't make this team in the first place. It doesn't take me the better part of a day to get ready for anything and I doubt PC and JS will tolerate a guy who needs to warm his motor up for 7 hours before selecting "D" on the shifter.

Again, I think the real issue this team faces on the road is at what point the crowd noise is heard, and that is about it. With big Russ calling the signals, we're good. As Kip eluded to, this offense will have ZERO trouble operating this year. And the defense? Well, it'll be all quiet out on those fields enabling much better communication.

In fact, I'm going on record right now; the defense will play better on the road than they will at home.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:05 am 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:
Point #1: Totally agree about the offense.

Point #2: I think the defense holds steady this year. That might not be enough to take the #1 scoring position again, but then again, who's going to take the crown from us? See Point 3

Point #3: The 49ers defense has a far greater chance of regressing than we do. While Kaepernick should do enough to keep their defense off the field, they're also going to be playing a lot of slim margin games and frankly, their defense trended downwards last season, and unless their draft picks pan out huge, they got weaker in the secondary which was already 'deficient'. If Seattle is going to be known for offense, that's going to go double for the 49ers, but I think they'll end up like the Packers. It's all on the QB.

Point #4: Wilson isn't far enough along in the public eye to win MVP. He'll probably be worthy of consideration, and he probably should win it, but if Peyton Manning or Tom Brady have good seasons again, they'll get the nod by default. It's stupid, but the sportswriters are stupid. However, Super Bowl MVP is definitely in the cards.

Point #5: The sportswriters will also probably give the nod to someone else over Schneider. Again, because they're stupid. It won't matter. Seattle extended Schneider, and he's primed for a dynastic run which is more important.


Sarlacc, whatever you had for breakfast today, have it again tomorrow.

Good stuff.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 10:27 am 
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kearly wrote:
When I look at Seattle's offense, it's not really that they have the most elite collection of weapons ever assembled, it's just that they have a group of very good players that can all make defenders pay for not respecting them. And you can't cover every base. Not with just 11 defenders. Defenses will be stretched more than ever in 2013 when facing the Seahawks.


This reminds me of the Herb Brooks quote from Miracle:

"I'm not looking for the best players... I'm looking for the right ones."

For our offense, the collection of receivers and RBs is a formidable team, though Harvin and Lynch may be the only perennial probowlers talent-wise at this point (we've yet to see what Michael brings, and to what degree Tate steps up).

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 10:31 am 
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Here are mine:

1st) Top 5 Offense and Defense in the NFL.
2nd) Lead the league in Rushing.
3rd) Win at least 6 games on the road.
4th) Win the division.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 10:41 am 
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At least a 5-3 road record. If we can get that on the road, I would be ecstatic. No more "Cant win on the Road" speeches.

I think every road game for every team is tough. On our schedule, SF, HOU, ATL, and even NY are all very feasible losses. If we snatch one of those, Ill be happy. Hell, even CAR is a tough one, especially for a season opener on the road. But if we can manage to put away AZ, ST.L, IND (like we should) and grab two more wins out of the other 5, I will be so so happy.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 11:56 am 
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I'm not going line item by line item, but this is what I see happening for the most part.

Offense, if and big if the line holds up and improves we are finally at the stage of USC as far as how we run the offense. Big depth at RB, a stable of receivers, they don't have to be all pro just be able to catch the ball and be hard to defend. We have height, speed, versatility, RAC and toughness. We have type player in Harvin that can line up anywhere, possession guys in Baldwin and Tate, Rice for the height and down feild as well as Harvin. Miller to split the seams and under routes, Willson if he pans out a a tall end zone threat that may also be a sort of Mile Williams guy on the sidelines.

It will be more of we don't need to trick you or anything, here is whats coming now try to stop it type offense with a master of orchestration conducting it in Russell Wilson.

On defense we have attitude, physical presence, and a lot of the body types we have been trying to assemble for a long time. I think if the offense generates points quickly we may see a very aggressive defense, not the bend but don't break attitude of the past, not the play prevent defense that costs us wins. I think with Quinn especially we become rabid dogs and take a few chances at making pics and creating even more turnovers, blitzing on first down when the other team is behind stuff, rotating coverage to make things look like a miss match and have guys go for pick offs. The kind of things that rip a opponents heart out and then add insult to injury as they see you eat that same heart.

Thats what I see us trying to do, it all adds up to controlling our own destiny and not giving anything back or leaving any doubt as to who wins in any games we play.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 12:40 pm 
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The Seahawks actually have a really good chance to put the 10am problem behind them in 2013, since the early start / body clock issue typically effects defense much more than offense. If Seattle is the kind of team I think they'll be, where they are being carried more by their offense (similar to the Patriots), then I could see them doing much better in 10am starts. If Seattle went 5-0 in 10am starts, I wouldn't be shocked, because that's how good their offense can be.

That said, the 10am disadvantage is not a secret and it's not subtle. Athletic performance peaks around 4pm, and that's not something that gets reset for timezone change in 24 or 48 hours. If anyone thinks we lose the Atlanta game if it starts at 1pm Pacific, I think you're nuts. The first half of that game screamed body clock issues. The 49ers had the same problem the next week (though their game started at 11am). Of course, no one is saying that 10am start = automatic loss. It's just an extra disadvantage to deal with, and it will probably turn one or two close wins into close losses next season.

Seattle's winning percentage in 10am Pacific starts under Pete Carroll is close to the 10 year NFL average cited by Barthawk. Maybe Pete builds a team so good on offense that he can be an exception this year, but the proof is in the pudding.

As far as the Rams, why should we be worried about them? They are not a 10 win team. They are like Minnesota without AP. As long as Bradford is there, they will be mediocre. They remind me a lot of the John Friesz-era Seahawks. They are more of a pest than a good team, IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:13 pm 
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10am start times matter. The evidence is ridiculously large. I've always been most likely to PR on my lifts in the afternoon, but that's just an anecdote. Research-wise, there are numerous studies demonstrating that the afternoon is when the human body reaches peak strength and coordination, as much as a 5-7% increase over the morning. That's like playing against a team on steroids.

Aside from the physiological data, the empirical data is hard to ignore:

Sando wrote:
In the Seahawks' case, they've been outscored by 4.6 points per game in the first halves of 10 a.m. PT kickoffs since 2001, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The deficit was 2.1 points per game in first halves of road games kicking off between 1 p.m. PT and 1:25 p.m. PT.


[source: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... r-seahawks ]


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:21 pm 
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Formido, psychosomatic effects are still effects, even if they are fake; just like placebos in medicine can still actually help in some things.

That doesn't prove legitimacy, though.

Also, the Seahawks won 35.8% of their 10am games compared to 38.8% of 1pm road games. That's a rather small statistical deviation.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:25 pm 
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kearly wrote:
As far as the Rams, why should we be worried about them? They are not a 10 win team. They are like Minnesota without AP. As long as Bradford is there, they will be mediocre. They remind me a lot of the John Friesz-era Seahawks. They are more of a pest than a good team, IMO.


That's the way I feel about the Rams, of course, feel free to disagree. Maybe the Seahawk rise last year looked clear to us, but for the rest of the league we were supposed to be an easy out. Only takes a few players to finally "get it" to pull off a surprising season. I used to hold pre-Harbaugh Alex Smith in lower regard then I do Sam Bradford at this moment.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:41 pm 
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1. 12+ wins
2. NFCW Champs
3. 5-1 or 6-0 division record.
4. Superbowl appearance.
5. 30+ TDs, less than 10 INTs for Wilson.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:42 pm 
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kearly wrote:
As far as the Rams, why should we be worried about them? They are not a 10 win team. They are like Minnesota without AP. As long as Bradford is there, they will be mediocre. They remind me a lot of the John Friesz-era Seahawks. They are more of a pest than a good team, IMO.


Their defensive line is worth about six wins all by itself. If Bradford can simply not cause any more losses than he causes wins, an improved secondary and a good #1 receiver could push them into 9-10 win territory.

You might think I'm being facetious, but I'm not.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 1:43 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
Formido, psychosomatic effects are still effects, even if they are fake; just like placebos in medicine can still actually help in some things.

That doesn't prove legitimacy, though.

Also, the Seahawks won 35.8% of their 10am games compared to 38.8% of 1pm road games. That's a rather small statistical deviation.


Your bodies thermogenic peak has nothing to do with psychosomatics. Thats proven.

Sando also had another article that took all the west coast teams, SEA, SF, OAK, SD, AZ and ran the data. It showed pretty well how teams traveling to the east coast and playing in 10am games were at a huge disadvantage compared to any other start time.

No one is arguing that teams CANT win at 10am from the west. But the disadvantage is documented quite well.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:09 pm 
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Dude, I just pointed out from your own Sando link that the difference in losses at 10am starts compared to 1am starts is exactly 3.0%. That is a very minor deviation. What kind of crack are you smoking?

Cartire wrote:
Your bodies thermogenic peak has nothing to do with psychosomatics. Thats proven.

Uh, no. Find me some evidence that this would be practically the only physically exempt thing in the human body that CANNOT be influenced by the subconscious mind. Our minds can change virtually anything in our body, under the right circumstances; like scars fading and appearing, and eye color changing (in seconds) on someone with dissociative identity disorder when they switch personalities, in some very rare cases.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:13 pm 
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If our offense is as efficient this year as it was the second half of last year I have a hard time seeing our defense regressing. Opposing teams will have fewer opportunities to score and or D will be more rested. On top of that, the bigger lead we have the more opponents will pass, likely resulting in more turnovers.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:15 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
Dude, I just pointed out from your own Sando link that the difference in losses at 10am starts compared to 1am starts is exactly 3.0%. That is a very minor deviation. What kind of crack are you smoking?



not my link buddy. But I was talking about west coast teams as a whole since were talking about west coast to east coast 10 am games. You have to include all of them and not just Seattle or else your not getting all the stats.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:21 pm 
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Do you even know how to do basic math? Ok, on that pic you just posted, San Diego has a BETTER winning percentage at 10am than they do at 1pm. 46.9% of 10am games were wins, compared to 45.7% of 1pm games being wins. SF and Oakland are more serious outliers, but a tiny difference for the Seahawks and the Chargers winning MORE at 10am pretty much blow it right out of the water as far as "proof" goes.

SF: 28.3% at 10am, 52.6% at 1pm.
Oakland: 27.7% at 10am, 37.0% at 1pm.
Arizona: 25.8% at 10am, 32.2% at 1pm.

Notice the only 3 that had noticeable discrepancies are also teams that sucked for almost every single one of the years in question, too.

Believe what you want.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:53 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
Do you even know how to do basic math? Ok, on that pic you just posted, San Diego has a BETTER winning percentage at 10am than they do at 1pm. 46.9% of 10am games were wins, compared to 45.7% of 1pm games being wins. SF and Oakland are more serious outliers, but a tiny difference for the Seahawks and the Chargers winning MORE at 10am pretty much blow it right out of the water as far as "proof" goes.

SF: 28.3% at 10am, 52.6% at 1pm.
Oakland: 27.7% at 10am, 37.0% at 1pm.
Arizona: 25.8% at 10am, 32.2% at 1pm.

Notice the only 3 that had noticeable discrepancies are also teams that sucked for almost every single one of the years in question, too.

Believe what you want.


Man, ranking on my math when i Clearly said all West teams as a whole. Pretty sure I didnt say anything about just SD.

And what does a team being horrible have to do with more losses at 10am vs less losses at 1pm. Its the same team both times, right.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:59 pm 
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my expectations for 2013 are a combination of two slogans - "WIN FOREVER" and "EARN EVERYTHING".

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 2:59 pm 
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If your team sucks, small problems of all kinds tend to be exacerbated. If your team is elite, small problems tend to be largely irrelevant. Ignore the correlation as you wish.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:13 pm 
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I think we run the ball a lot and lead the league in rushing. We have returning starters across the offensive line and more weapons in the backfield than ever.


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:19 pm 
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fenderbender123 wrote:
We have returning starters across the offensive line


I'd say that's only a good thing for half of the O-line, lol. I really hope Moffitt comes back, and Carp stays healthy and playing @ guard.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:18 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
If your team sucks, small problems of all kinds tend to be exacerbated. If your team is elite, small problems tend to be largely irrelevant. Ignore the correlation as you wish.


San Francisco was arguably the most complete team in the NFL last year, out of the AFC top 4, Denver was the only team that could have edged them out of being favored in the Superbowl. Despite staying on the East Coast the whole week when they had 2 east coast road games, they were 1-2 when playing at 10 AM Pacific, their lone victory coming against the disaster that was the Jets. Flexing bailed them out of a few 10 am matchups, but by the time we can get flexed out of a 10 AM game this year, we will have already played our toughest early matchups.

The only reason that is irrelevant is because of the smaller sample size of 10 AM Pacific games they participated in. Win just one of our 10 AM defensive meltdowns vs the Lions or the Dolphins, and Seattle would have won the #2 seed (imagine the exponential increase in Packer hate!).

I don't write off those 5 future Seahawk games as an 0-5 failure, but they are concerning no matter how dominant I think our 2013 team will be. Drop a few too many and SF can cupcake their way to a division title once again by virtue of their big market must succeed scheduling (not being sarcastic here either- just look at the entitlement syndrome Packer trolls are infected with).

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:20 pm 
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Seahawks are a solid team on both sides of the ball. Good lines. Good RB. Very good CB's. QB was a pleasant surprise last season.

But there is one thing to remember. History has shown that defenses eventually find a way to slow down the latest fad when it comes to offenses. The running QB running a read option seems to be the flavor of the month. What would happen if defenses figure out ways to keep Russell Wilson, Colin Kapernick, RGIII and other running QB's in the pocket? Making them beat them with their arms and not their legs? Will they become proficient pocket passers?

Look at the final 4 teams last year. 3 of the 4 teams had QB's who are primarily pocket passers. I don't think thats a coincidence. While its nice to have a guy who can escape the pass rush, its even better to have a guy who can sit there, read defenses, make good decisions and make accurate throws. Why are the Patriots always a playoff team? It hasn't been their defense lately. Why did the Broncos all of a sudden become a superbowl contender? Why did Joe Flacco lead his team to a championship? Good pocket passers, thats why.

If defenses make Wilson stay in the pocket, can he succeed? Thats a question that remains to be seen.


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:27 pm 
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Snackdaddy, RW is already a proficient pocket passer. The read option wasn't a main staple of our offense, it was a sparingly used change up to our base offense.

The Patriots are always in it because their division had been a joke for a decade, and because Tom Brady.

The Broncos got good because the rest of their team was actually solid in spite of Tim Tebow.

Good QBs are essential, I agree. But to say RW hasn't shown he can throw from the pocket shows how little you've actually seen him play.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:41 pm 
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snackdaddy wrote:
Look at the final 4 teams last year. 3 of the 4 teams had QB's who are primarily pocket passers. I don't think thats a coincidence. While its nice to have a guy who can escape the pass rush, its even better to have a guy who can sit there, read defenses, make good decisions and make accurate throws. Why are the Patriots always a playoff team? It hasn't been their defense lately. Why did the Broncos all of a sudden become a superbowl contender? Why did Joe Flacco lead his team to a championship? Good pocket passers, thats why.

If defenses make Wilson stay in the pocket, can he succeed? Thats a question that remains to be seen.


"Remains to be seen"? You haven't been paying attention to Wilson this past year, then. :177692:

Yes, he can escape pressure. But his pocket passer rating is near the top in the league over the entire season. How much more "seeing" would you need to be convinced the guy can get it done? SMH...

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
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SacHawk2.0 wrote:
Snackdaddy, RW is already a proficient pocket passer. The read option wasn't a main staple of our offense, it was a sparingly used change up to our base offense.

The Patriots are always in it because their division had been a joke for a decade, and because Tom Brady.

The Broncos got good because the rest of their team was actually solid in spite of Tim Tebow.

Good QBs are essential, I agree. But to say RW hasn't shown he can throw from the pocket shows how little you've actually seen him play.


Sorry , Sac, should have read your post first, and just let you state the obvious.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:49 pm 
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SacHawk2.0 wrote:
Snackdaddy, RW is already a proficient pocket passer. The read option wasn't a main staple of our offense, it was a sparingly used change up to our base offense.

The Patriots are always in it because their division had been a joke for a decade, and because Tom Brady.

The Broncos got good because the rest of their team was actually solid in spite of Tim Tebow.

Good QBs are essential, I agree. But to say RW hasn't shown he can throw from the pocket shows how little you've actually seen him play.


You could be right. But me, I want to see more than one season. He won't be catching teams by surprise. He repeats what he did last season, then I'll be a believer. For now, its wait and see. I've seen a lot of sophomore slumps over the years in several sports.

He has one thing in his favor. He has a good running game and good protection. And a good defense. He won't have to do it all by himself like Drew Brees in New Orleans tried last season.


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:52 pm 
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RolandDeschain wrote:
fenderbender123 wrote:
We have returning starters across the offensive line


I'd say that's only a good thing for half of the O-line, lol. I really hope Moffitt comes back, and Carp stays healthy and playing @ guard.


I hear ya, our line is far from perfect but I think they do a good job at run blocking.


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:52 pm 
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Don't be a cliche' machine, dude. There are myriad (hi Zeb!) reasons to believe he won't slump.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:57 pm 
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snackdaddy wrote:
SacHawk2.0 wrote:
Snackdaddy, RW is already a proficient pocket passer. The read option wasn't a main staple of our offense, it was a sparingly used change up to our base offense.

The Patriots are always in it because their division had been a joke for a decade, and because Tom Brady.

The Broncos got good because the rest of their team was actually solid in spite of Tim Tebow.

Good QBs are essential, I agree. But to say RW hasn't shown he can throw from the pocket shows how little you've actually seen him play.


You could be right. But me, I want to see more than one season. He won't be catching teams by surprise. He repeats what he did last season, then I'll be a believer. For now, its wait and see. I've seen a lot of sophomore slumps over the years in several sports.

He has one thing in his favor. He has a good running game and good protection. And a good defense. He won't have to do it all by himself like Drew Brees in New Orleans tried last season.


As often as the Hawks ran the read-option, people still think its the teams bread and butter - its not.

Several posts over the last couple weeks have addressed the sophomore slump idea, and it's largely a myth. With Luck, RG3, Wilson, and Kaep, it'll cease being spoken of altogether.

One thing in his favor... and you list three? He has a great running game around him, agreed, and good run-blocking for it. The defense was solid until the last minute of a few unmentionable games.

But good protection? I'd say it was adequate most of the time, but his ability to scramble out of pressure extended many plays that would have got any other QB leveled. With RW, it's the whole package. His college tape looks just the same as his preseason work and entire season last year. If there's a breakdown, it won't be Wilson.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
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One thing about the read option that people forget. New England's best runs came out of the same formation, except they didn't have the threat of a running quaterack. Tom Brady would line up in the shotgun and hand it off. With Brady back there the defensive end can just crash down and help on the running back. With Wilson if the D-end starts crashing down Wilson will run. So early in the game The D-end will stay at home and Wilson will continue to feed the Beast. After Beastmode is tearing them a new one, the d-end will eventually crash and Wilson will burn him. The beauty of it is either way it creates a numbers advantage for the offense. Reguarless of whether or not Wilson hands it off or keeps it :twisted:


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 9:17 pm 
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Well Fran Tarkenton was always thought of as a scrambler, he threw a lot from the pocket as well, when you have a mobile QB you are having to account for him every play taking away the defenses versatility and setting up a advantage. Read option roll outs, moving pockets whatever you want to throw out there, defense still has to wait , wait, wait till Russell commits to where he is going.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 9:23 pm 
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Oh one more expectation, when we sack Kaepernick I hope the person that does it kisses his own bicep in the back field, not over Kaep that would get a penalty.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 17, 2013 11:51 pm 
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chris98251 wrote:
Oh one more expectation, when we sack Kaepernick I hope the person that does it kisses his own bicep in the back field, not over Kaep that would get a penalty.

Avril, Bennett, Clemens, Irvin and my boyfriend have far more class than this, unlike Krapperdink...just sayin' .

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 6:35 am 
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snackdaddy wrote:
Seahawks are a solid team on both sides of the ball. Good lines. Good RB. Very good CB's. QB was a pleasant surprise last season.

But there is one thing to remember. History has shown that defenses eventually find a way to slow down the latest fad when it comes to offenses. The running QB running a read option seems to be the flavor of the month. What would happen if defenses figure out ways to keep Russell Wilson, Colin Kapernick, RGIII and other running QB's in the pocket? Making them beat them with their arms and not their legs? Will they become proficient pocket passers?

Look at the final 4 teams last year. 3 of the 4 teams had QB's who are primarily pocket passers. I don't think thats a coincidence. While its nice to have a guy who can escape the pass rush, its even better to have a guy who can sit there, read defenses, make good decisions and make accurate throws. Why are the Patriots always a playoff team? It hasn't been their defense lately. Why did the Broncos all of a sudden become a superbowl contender? Why did Joe Flacco lead his team to a championship? Good pocket passers, thats why.

If defenses make Wilson stay in the pocket, can he succeed? Thats a question that remains to be seen.



This is where the Niners will also benefit by having one of the best o-lines in the league. If o-linemen can dominate the trenches then our mobile QB can continue to be mobile. Especially going up against a defense without a good pass rush. This is where not having all your pass rushers available for a game against one of the listed QB's above will surely hurt you more than normal.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 6:57 am 
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NinerLifer wrote:
snackdaddy wrote:
Seahawks are a solid team on both sides of the ball. Good lines. Good RB. Very good CB's. QB was a pleasant surprise last season.

But there is one thing to remember. History has shown that defenses eventually find a way to slow down the latest fad when it comes to offenses. The running QB running a read option seems to be the flavor of the month. What would happen if defenses figure out ways to keep Russell Wilson, Colin Kapernick, RGIII and other running QB's in the pocket? Making them beat them with their arms and not their legs? Will they become proficient pocket passers?

Look at the final 4 teams last year. 3 of the 4 teams had QB's who are primarily pocket passers. I don't think thats a coincidence. While its nice to have a guy who can escape the pass rush, its even better to have a guy who can sit there, read defenses, make good decisions and make accurate throws. Why are the Patriots always a playoff team? It hasn't been their defense lately. Why did the Broncos all of a sudden become a superbowl contender? Why did Joe Flacco lead his team to a championship? Good pocket passers, thats why.

If defenses make Wilson stay in the pocket, can he succeed? Thats a question that remains to be seen.



This is where the Niners will also benefit by having one of the best o-lines in the league. If o-linemen can dominate the trenches then our mobile QB can continue to be mobile. Especially going up against a defense without a good pass rush. This is where not having all your pass rushers available for a game against one of the listed QB's above will surely hurt you more than normal.


Well what happened last December here in Seattle? Seattle hada not very good pash rush and they still curbstomped the ninnies! So there may be a bigger chink in the SF armor then you think.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 7:47 am 
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Sports Hernia wrote:
NinerLifer wrote:
snackdaddy wrote:
Seahawks are a solid team on both sides of the ball. Good lines. Good RB. Very good CB's. QB was a pleasant surprise last season.

But there is one thing to remember. History has shown that defenses eventually find a way to slow down the latest fad when it comes to offenses. The running QB running a read option seems to be the flavor of the month. What would happen if defenses figure out ways to keep Russell Wilson, Colin Kapernick, RGIII and other running QB's in the pocket? Making them beat them with their arms and not their legs? Will they become proficient pocket passers?

Look at the final 4 teams last year. 3 of the 4 teams had QB's who are primarily pocket passers. I don't think thats a coincidence. While its nice to have a guy who can escape the pass rush, its even better to have a guy who can sit there, read defenses, make good decisions and make accurate throws. Why are the Patriots always a playoff team? It hasn't been their defense lately. Why did the Broncos all of a sudden become a superbowl contender? Why did Joe Flacco lead his team to a championship? Good pocket passers, thats why.

If defenses make Wilson stay in the pocket, can he succeed? Thats a question that remains to be seen.



This is where the Niners will also benefit by having one of the best o-lines in the league. If o-linemen can dominate the trenches then our mobile QB can continue to be mobile. Especially going up against a defense without a good pass rush. This is where not having all your pass rushers available for a game against one of the listed QB's above will surely hurt you more than normal.


Well what happened last December here in Seattle? Seattle hada not very good pash rush and they still curbstomped the ninnies! So there may be a bigger chink in the SF armor then you think.


Despite being banged up from the prior week in NE, you guys took out Vernon Davis. I obviously don't have to explain how big of an injury that was.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 8:16 am 
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NinerLifer wrote:
Despite being banged up from the prior week in NE, you guys took out Vernon Davis. I obviously don't have to explain how big of an injury that was.


Kaepernick hardly looked Vernon's way at all during the regular season, so at the time, it really wasn't a big injury at all. I just checked, and Kaepernick averaged 3 targets to VD per game throughout the regular season once Kaepernick became the starter; and that is much higher than reality, because the first two starts he targeted him 5 and 8 times, respectively. For the final month of the regular season, he averaged merely 2 targets per game to Davis.

This isn't a knock on Davis, because he deserves more targets than that by a long shot on a regular basis. It's a knock on Kaep.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 8:24 am 
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Also, as a comparison, Tony Gonzalez was targeted 7.56 times per game in the regular season by Matt Ryan. You might point out that he's one of the greatest TEs of all time, and that's true, but the Falcons also have two very good WRs that see a ton of throws, so Gonzalez isn't targeted as much as he would be on nearly any other team in the NFL.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
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I expect Seattle to sweap the 49ers and break even with the rams.


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:46 am 
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NinerLifer wrote:
Sports Hernia wrote:
snackdaddy wrote:
Seahawks are a solid team on both sides of the ball. Good lines. Good RB. Very good CB's. QB was a pleasant surprise last season.

But there is one thing to remember. History has shown that defenses eventually find a way to slow down the latest fad when it comes to offenses. The running QB running a read option seems to be the flavor of the month. What would happen if defenses figure out ways to keep Russell Wilson, Colin Kapernick, RGIII and other running QB's in the pocket? Making them beat them with their arms and not their legs? Will they become proficient pocket passers?

Look at the final 4 teams last year. 3 of the 4 teams had QB's who are primarily pocket passers. I don't think thats a coincidence. While its nice to have a guy who can escape the pass rush, its even better to have a guy who can sit there, read defenses, make good decisions and make accurate throws. Why are the Patriots always a playoff team? It hasn't been their defense lately. Why did the Broncos all of a sudden become a superbowl contender? Why did Joe Flacco lead his team to a championship? Good pocket passers, thats why.

If defenses make Wilson stay in the pocket, can he succeed? Thats a question that remains to be seen.


This is where the Niners will also benefit by having one of the best o-lines in the league. If o-linemen can dominate the trenches then our mobile QB can continue to be mobile. Especially going up against a defense without a good pass rush. This is where not having all your pass rushers available for a game against one of the listed QB's above will surely hurt you more than normal.


Well what happened last December here in Seattle? Seattle hada not very good pash rush and they still curbstomped the ninnies! So there may be a bigger chink in the SF armor then you think.


Despite being banged up from the prior week in NE, you guys took out Vernon Davis. I obviously don't have to explain how big of an injury that was.

.....and Seattle was without 3 out of 4 top CB's....... I can do this for that all day long...... Excuses only get you so far!

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:56 am 
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Axx wrote:
I expect Seattle to sweap the 49ers and break even with the rams.


I expect Seattle to sweep both the 49ers and the Rams, but if we split I think it will be with the 49ers... Don't see us losing the first Home Game on Sunday Night Football. Especially with a crowd trying to break the sound record in a stadium..... :th2thumbs:

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:15 pm 
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Hawkboi wrote:
Axx wrote:
I expect Seattle to sweap the 49ers and break even with the rams.


I expect Seattle to sweep both the 49ers and the Rams, but if we split I think it will be with the 49ers... Don't see us losing the first Home Game on Sunday Night Football. Especially with a crowd trying to break the sound record in a stadium..... :th2thumbs:


And on Pete Carroll's birthday!

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:16 pm 
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bestfightstory wrote:
And on Pete Carroll's birthday!


Reminds me of the birthday present we gave Jim Harbaugh.

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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:17 pm 
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What Do I Expect This Year?

I expect the Niners to split the series with both the Seahawks and Rams... I think SF wins the division due to the significantly easier away schedule. I think there will also be a 'fair-well' tour for Candlestick that will come into play. I think Andrew Luck will win the MVP, mostly on being in a high-volume passing attack with a suspect defense, requiring him to pass consistently. But his team will be another year better. I think Dallas will have a breakout year and Tony Romo will actually be an MVP candidate. I think the Broncos will rely heavily on their defense and run attack with Monte Ball. I see Alex Smith getting KC to the last playoff spot, but getting ousted in the first round. I see a divisional game in SF between SEA and SF, which could be the last game ever in Candlestick, and just completely nuts...

NFC
Division Winners:
SF, GB, ATL, DAL
Wildcards:
SEA, WAS
Contenders:
STL, NO, NYG, CAR

AFC
Division Winners:
DEN, PIT, IND, NE
Wilcards:
HOU, KC
Contenders:
MIA, CIN, TEN, BAL

Wilcard Round:
SEA defeats DAL
ATL defeats WAS
IND defeats KC
NE defeats HOU

Divisional Round:
SF defeats SEA
GB defeats ATL
NE defeats DEN
IND defeats PIT

Conference Round:
SF defeats GB
NE defeats IND

Super Bowl:
SF defeats NE

Awards
MVP: Andrew Luck (runners up: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, RGIII, Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick)
OPOY: Aaron Rodgers
DPOY: Von Miller
OROY: Monte Ball
DROY: Dion Jordan
Super Bowl MVP: Kaepernick


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 Post subject: Re: Expectations for the 2013 season?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:22 pm 
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As far as the Rams, why should we be worried about them? They are not a 10 win team. They are like Minnesota without AP. As long as Bradford is there, they will be mediocre. They remind me a lot of the John Friesz-era Seahawks. They are more of a pest than a good team, IMO.


Their defensive line is worth about six wins all by itself. If Bradford can simply not cause any more losses than he causes wins, an improved secondary and a good #1 receiver could push them into 9-10 win territory.

You might think I'm being facetious, but I'm not.


Their line won't get 52 sacks every season though. I don't see much immediate upside for them on defense, really the only area for upside left is the running game. I think Bradford is probably very near his ceiling already. It's not that he lacks the skills or development, and yet he's still below the NFL median. Yeah, his receivers weren't great, but outside of a handful of megastar WRs, it's generally the QB who makes the WR, not the other way around.

I think the WR excuse is valid, but only excuses so much because it's a double-edged sword. For that matter, I can't recall a single sub-par QB who suddenly became great because of additions at WR. WR's are enhancers, but they don't change who you are. Tom Brady took off when he got Moss/Welker and later Gronk/Hernandez, but before 2007 he was still an ultra-elite QB, even when he was throwing to a bunch of no names who couldn't catch the football.

I liked the Rams additions at RB and WR in the draft, but WRs typically take a few years to acclimate. Really the only thing about the Rams that I am in awe of is their D-line, their corners are decent too, but after that, it's an average to below average group of talent.

Fisher is a good in game decision maker, but he's never been a great talent evaluator. His teams have been very inconsistent year to year, too.

RolandDeschain wrote:
Dude, I just pointed out from your own Sando link that the difference in losses at 10am starts compared to 1am starts is exactly 3.0%. That is a very minor deviation. What kind of crack are you smoking?


Sorry Roland, but thinking that body clock doesn't and hasn't had a significant impact on present and past outcomes is birther level silliness. Also, the 3% you cite is just the Seahawks, in a relatively small sample size (keep in mind too- Seattle has been a mostly terrible road team over that span, 10am or not). What Cartire showed was a chart that involved several teams in a much larger sample that had very clear results, much larger than 3%. You can't just dismiss a body of data because a very small piece of it disagreed. That would be like saying the Mariners are not a terrible offense because they've had the AL's best offense in July.

Also, you really need to stop cherry picking the stats you like and then discarding the ones you don't by labeling them outliers- especially when those stats you incorrectly label outliers agree with the larger body of evidence more than your favored stats do. An outlier is a stat that is a standard deviation or two away from the norm, and generally disagrees with the overall data consensus, or at least stands out like a sore thumb. The recent 49ers (in Sando's chart) are not an outlier. They were a better at 1pm games than Oakland and Arizona, but their 10am record was pretty close. It's not a massive gulf in difference, especially since a 19 game 1pm sample is hardly rock solid.

Now, the one thing you are right about is that drawbacks tend to hurt better teams less. The Chargers did relatively well in early games because for most of the last 10 years they've won a ton of regular season games, and did so with great offense- which generally isn't impacted much by early starts. You look at the teams that bucked the 10am trend over NFL history and they generally were either very good and/or had very good offenses. So Seattle is a good bet to buck the trend this year. But that doesn't mean it isn't a disadvantage that must still be overcome. (And remember, Seattle finished 11-5 with FO's #1 offense last year, and was still miserable in 10am starts.)

Who knows, maybe the Seahawks are just that damn good and they got 5-0 in their 10am starts this year. I'm open to that. But let's not pretend that it isn't a significant extra disadvantage that will be a challenge to overcome. Someone else said it perfectly- in the first half of 10am starts it's like the other team is on performance enhancers because of body routine.


Last edited by kearly on Thu Jul 18, 2013 2:00 pm, edited 14 times in total.

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