Advanced Stats a la FieldGulls

Laloosh

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There is a lot here so I'll leave it to you to decide how much you want to read but know that it takes a particularly interesting twist once you get into the "stat of the week"...

The amount of work that Manning is asked to do is far greater than the amount of work that Wilson is asked to do, on gameday. Because Manning doesn't have a run game to work with? Well, no, not really. The Broncos have handed the ball off (not including QB keepers) 380 times. The Seahawks have handed it off to their backs and receivers 359 times.

Yes, Denver has actually run the ball with their backs more often than Seattle has.

Mostly it just comes down to the fact that Manning has 183 more offensive snaps than Wilson does. Why? Better defense, better field position, fewer plays run, more of a field position battle, and significantly higher yards-per-attempt by Wilson.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2013/12/18/52 ... on-maxwell
 

SalishHawkFan

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I've always wondered about how good of a method this would actually be to kill someone. I think we've all tried it at least once in our lives; pressing a cold pillow over your face and seeing how long you could last before gasping for fresh air. I think most of us probably must not do it hard enough, because often instead I'll just think, "This is actually quite nice" and take a nap.
LMAO!
 

MontanaHawk05

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This sort of thing is why people think Wilson is an undeveloped game manager - because he's not being asked to do as much. Reality is, it's not slowing his development at all. Seattle has been practically pass-first the last four games.
 

kearly

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I can't understand why anyone with half a brain would cite EPA or WPA as a meaningful individual stat. All the stat basically tells you is how much a player impacted his teams chances to win, but it is inevitable that such a stat would be extremely context based. For example, Curtis Painter went 4/4 for 40 yards, but posted a negative EPA and WPA because in the game situation he inherited, putting up 4 pass attempts at MVP efficiency rates was not enough to even help his team win even a little. That's a fair observation if we are talking about the game, but it's not a fair evaluation if we are talking about how Curtis Painter played.

Granted, it was garbage time and Curtis Painter usually sucks balls, but just the same, he played very well and got a negative score in their metric. WPA / EPA are "fun" stats that should never be taken seriously when evaluating individual players. At most it has some use as a stat to measure "clutchness," but truthfully I wish Advanced NFL Stats would move on from it so people who don't know how to use stats stop citing it.
 

Seahawkfan80

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I am with Kearly on this one stat wise. Just another meaningless drivel so another person has something to have a claim to fame now. LOL
 

RolandDeschain

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MontanaHawk05":883lwuiz said:
Seattle has been practically pass-first the last four games.
Huh? Last four games:

vs. Vikings: 18 pass attempts, 28 runs
vs. Saints: 28 pass attempts, 38 runs
@ 49ers: 24 pass attempts, 23 runs
@ Giants: 27 pass attempts, 34 runs

Average over the past four weeks: 24.25 pass attempts and 30.75 rushes per game on average for a 1:1.26 pass-run ratio.
 

WilsonMVP

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RolandDeschain":1bkzty42 said:
MontanaHawk05":1bkzty42 said:
Seattle has been practically pass-first the last four games.
Huh? Last four games:

vs. Vikings: 18 pass attempts, 28 runs
vs. Saints: 28 pass attempts, 38 runs
@ 49ers: 24 pass attempts, 23 runs
@ Giants: 27 pass attempts, 34 runs

Average over the past four weeks: 24.25 pass attempts and 30.75 rushes per game on average for a 1:1.26 pass-run ratio.

I know in the Vikings and Saints game we passed alot in the first half and ran it a bunch in the second half when we were up huge. I would imagine it would be similar for the Giants game since we had the lead again.
 

RolandDeschain

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WilsonMVP":24px3b7x said:
I know in the Vikings and Saints game we passed alot in the first half and ran it a bunch in the second half when we were up huge. I would imagine it would be similar for the Giants game since we had the lead again.

Right, which probably accounts for us running MORE than passing overall. At best, it's about even in the first half on average over the past four games, or pretty close to even. Still far from "pass first".
 

etanate

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RolandDeschain":nsxojzgz said:
WilsonMVP":nsxojzgz said:
I know in the Vikings and Saints game we passed alot in the first half and ran it a bunch in the second half when we were up huge. I would imagine it would be similar for the Giants game since we had the lead again.

Right, which probably accounts for us running MORE than passing overall. At best, it's about even in the first half on average over the past four games, or pretty close to even. Still far from "pass first".

I just took it to mean that comparatively speaking to earlier in the year, it was like we were a pass first team.
 
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Laloosh

Laloosh

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:bump:

Because first name, Russell is still a bad ass. My original posting was from the middle of December but here's a reminder of what could be said at the time. (in case any donkey fans would like to use the "Just shut down Lynch" argument)

Stat of the Week: What if Russell Wilson was better than Peyton Manning for 75% of the season?

I'll never be able to make a "Russell Wilson 4 MVP" argument without being called biased, or simply without actually being biased (I am biased) but that doesn't mean we should throw the debate out of the window.

How much closer is the gap since Manning threw seven touchdowns in Week 1, for instance? How much closer if we look at the last 10 games, which comprises 71.4% of the season so far?

Manning: 7-3, 276-of-424, 65.1%, 3,341 yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 7.88 Y/A, 8.28 AY/A, 103.7 passer rating.

Wilson: 8-2, 176-of-261, 65.9%, 2,291 yards, 18 touchdowns, five interceptions, 8.77 Y/A, 9.29 AY/A, 108.6 passer rating.

The amount of work that Manning is asked to do is far greater than the amount of work that Wilson is asked to do, on gameday. Because Manning doesn't have a run game to work with? Well, no, not really. The Broncos have handed the ball off (not including QB keepers) 380 times. The Seahawks have handed it off to their backs and receivers 359 times.

Yes, Denver has actually run the ball with their backs more often than Seattle has.

Mostly it just comes down to the fact that Manning has 183 more offensive snaps than Wilson does. Why? Better defense [for Wilson], better field position, fewer plays run, more of a field position battle, and significantly higher yards-per-attempt by Wilson.

Because the best reason to give a player the MVP award is based on how good or bad his own defense is.

Of course, I'm not discounting the first four games of the season and I'm not dismissing Manning as the favorable choice for MVP. Over the first four weeks of the year, Manning had 16 touchdowns and no interceptions and for the entire season, his numbers eclipse everyone else's numbers entirely. He's going to hold the all-time single season record for touchdown passes and the only two times that a player has thrown more than 31 touchdowns between their fifth and 14th games of the season (as noted in those stats above) was Tom Brady in 2007 and Manning himself, back in 2004.

I'm just saying... isn't it interesting that Wilson could wind up having outproduced (in some major categories) perhaps the greatest quarterback that's ever lived? During his prime? Is that not... fun, amazing, dope, cool, radical, tubular, worth noting?

I think it is.
 
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