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Week 15: Seahawks vs. Cardinals Game Preview …
5 Keys to a Seahawks Victory vs. the Cardinals …
Above: Seahawk players just before taking the field against the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 7 (10/17/13)
The last time the Seahawks faced the Cardinals was a mere 9 weeks ago at University of Phoenix Stadium. On that day, the Hawks absolutely harassed quarterback Carson Palmer, sacking him 7 times, forcing him into throwing 2 interceptions, and making him look like a shot fighter in a 34-22 whooping. That was then … this is now. Since that time, that fighter has gotten up off the matt and has been landing haymakers, knocking out 6 out of the 7 opponents they’ve faced and averaging 29.85 points per game. Where once Arizona had been considered just another tomato can … they now stand at 9-5 and on the brink of making the playoffs if they can win their final 2 games and somehow get help along the way. Standing in their way though, is a Seahawks team that looks very much like a Super Bowl contender at this point. They come in to this game motivated as well, as Seattle stands just 1 way away from the NFC West Crown, the #1 Seed, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Will the Seahawks reach up and seize the crown this Sunday … or will the Cardinals come in and snatch a much needed win for them. Here are 5 Keys to Victory for the Seahawks this Sunday ...
Before we get into those though, here is a breakdown of the numbers, comparing the offenses and defenses of these 2 teams. You can refer back to this at your convenience as we move forward ...
[tdo=4]Cardinals vs. Seahawks Offense-Defense Comparison …[/tdo]
And now, on to Key to Victory #1 ...
Key #1: Cage the Cardinal Runners …
As was the case last week, let’s go ahead and start our look at the Cardinals Offense by checking out a breakdown of their run to pass ratio this season ...
357 Rushing Attempts …41.66% of Offense
500 Pass Attempts … 58.34% of Offense
857 Total Attempts
Just looking at the numbers, it would appear that the Cardinals have had a tendency to put the ball in Carson Palmer’s hands more than their running backs. However, that’s a bit deceptive. When the Seahawks last faced Arizona back in Week 7, Rashard Mendenhall (5’10” 225 Pounds) was the feature back and Seattle held him to just 22 yards on 13 carries (1.7 yards/rush) that day. Though he’s scored 8 touchdowns on the season, Mendenhall hasn’t had a great year, as he’s averaged a mere 3.1 yards/carry.
Enter Andre Ellington (5’9” 199 Pounds), Arizona’s 6th Round Pick this year out of Clemson, who since that time has become a much more of a featured part of the offense. In 94 Rushing Attempts this season, Ellington has 558 Yards on the ground … has averaged 5.9 Yards/Carry Avg. … scored 3 TD … and has 7 Runs of 20 Yards or more. In addition, he has also caught 34 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown as well.
If you take a look at his combined numbers, you’ll note that Andre Ellington has accounted for 26.33% of Arizona’s Rushing Offense … and 9.8% of their Passing Offense. So, in total, Ellington has accounted for 36.13% of the Cardinals Offense this season.
Last week against the Titans, Ellington showed his real versatility, as the Cardinals had him lined up at running back, out wide at the receiver position, as an inside slot receiver, and even as a tight end once. The result -- he had 71 yards rushing … and 87 yards receiving -- the first Cardinals player to lead the team in both rushing and receiving yards in a game since Marcel Shipp back in 2002.
One other little tidbit for ya -- the Cardinals don’t have a fullback on the roster and they generally use tight ends when they need a lead blocker. However, last Sunday the Cardinals pulled a Refrigerator Perry and used nose tackle Alameda Ta’amu (6’3” 348 Pounds) as a lead blocker. He ended up blocking on both of the Cardinals 2 rushing TD’s against the Titans. There’s the beef.
The week after the Cardinals faced the Seahawks, Ellington racked up 154 yards on the ground on 15 carries (10.3 Yards/Carry) and a touchdown, so he is perfectly capable of having a big day.
Containing Mendenhall, Ellington, and the run game (as usual) will be a huge priority for the Seahawks defense in this game. And to their credit, Seattle has done very well in that department lately. After allowing 200 yards on the ground to the Rams in Week 8 … and 205 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers at Century Link in Week 9 … the Seahawks run defense has really righted the ship ...
Falcons (Week 10 -- 11/10/13)… 16 Carries … 64 Yards Rushing (4.0 Yards/Carry)
Vikings (Week 11 -- 11/17/13) … 33 Carries … 132 Yards Rushing (4.0 Yards/Carry) … BUT, 58 of the Vikings 132 Rushing Yards in that game came against the 2nd and 3rd String after the starters were pulled at the start of the 4th Quarter. The Vikings managed only 73 yards on 28 carries on the ground total (2.81 Yards/Carry) against the starters.
Saints (Week 13 -- 12/2/13) …17 Carries … 44 Yards Rushing (2.6 Yards/Carry)
49ers (Week 14 -- 12/8/13) … 33 Carries … 163 Yards Rushing (4.9 Yards/Carry). However, 51 of Frank Gore’s yards came on 1 play. Take away that 1 play and the Seahawks limited San Francisco to 32 Carries … 112 Yards Rushing (just 3.5 Yards/Carry).
Giants (Week 15 -- 12/15/13) … 14 Carries … 25 Yards Rushing (1.8 Yards.Carry).
And for those who might have been gnashing their teeth over the prospect of losing linebacker K.J. Wright for 6 weeks due to a broken bone in his foot, allow me to provide you with a bit of a mouth guard. This past week, linebackers coach Ken Norton, Jr. raved about Wright’s backup, Malcolm Smith (6’0” 226 Pounds), saying of him, “When I say fast, I mean he is weapon’s grade fast -- He is WOW fast!” Despite the fact that he’s technically a back-up, ProFootball Focus has Smith rated as the 4th Best 4-3 Outside Linebacker in the NFL, noting that he’s yet to miss a tackle. That 4.4 speed and ability to quickly diagnose and close on the ball was certainly on display this past week, as Smith had 5 Tackles against the Giants including 1 Tackle for Loss.
Like last week, if the Seahawks can shut down that running attack and make the Cardinals offense one dimensional, then Seattle pass rushers should be able to pin their ears back and come after Pete Carroll’s former USC star with a vengeance. Will the Hawks be able to do just that? Let’s take a look at the war in the trenches for the answer to that question …
Key #2: Win the Battle of the Big Birds …
Coming in to that Week 7 Matchup, Arizona’s Offensive Line had surrendered only 13 Sacks … but had also allowed 34 QB Hits as well (11th Most in the league at that time). Though Football Outsiders had them as the 7th Best Run Blocking Team … and the 8th Best Pass Blocking team, ProFootball Focus had a far different opinion. At the beginning of October, here is where ProFootball Focus had the Cardinals Offensive Line ranked and what they had to say about them then ...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/09/ranking-the-2013-offensive-lines-first-quarter/
At the beginning of the season, the Cardinals ended up trading away Left Tackle Levi Brown to the Steelers for a conditional draft choice, convinced that he was no longer the answer at the position. Former Colt Bradley Sowell was inserted in his place. Here is what ProFootball Focus had to say about his performance coming in to that first Seahawks game ...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/14/refo-cardinals-49ers-week-6/
Pass Protection-wise, the transformation in the Cardinals Offensive Line from the 1st Half … to the 2nd Half of the season has been remarkable. Here are some of the numbers ...
[tdo=9]2013 Cardinals Passing Offense…[/tdo]
Interestingly enough though, the Run Blocking appears to be a whole different matter …
[tdo=7]2013 Cardinals Rushing Offense…[/tdo]
Between last year and this one, the Cardinals Offensive Line has improved immensely. Last year, Cardinals QB’s were sacked 56 times, as the Line was ranked #26 in the NFL by ProFootball Focus. This year has been a different story. Here is how their line has performed in comparison to Seattle’s ...
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
The opinion of Football Outsiders has changed quite a lot in the space of 9 weeks, as they now have Arizona’s line ranked basically in the middle of the pack. Arizona has now allowed a total of 84 QB Hits on the season. In other words, coming in to that Seattle game they had allowed 34 QB Hits (an average of 5.67 QB Hits/Game) … and they allowed 13 QB Hits in Week 7 to a fired up Seahawks defense. Since that time, they have given up 37 QB Hits (an average of 5.29 QB Hits/Game). So yes they’ve improved … but just how much remains to be seen. A fired up Seahawks Front 7 and an electrified 12th Man will certainly be the litmus test.
ProFootball Focus goes on to spell out just how important the offensive line play for the Cardinals has been and will be in this game ...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/20/3tfo-cardinals-seahawks-week-16/
Let’s shift our attention now to the one of the most apparently improved elements of this Cardinals team -- the passing game -- Key to Victory #3 ...
Key #3: Be The Net Over The Aviary …
Coming to that Week 7 game, Carson Palmer had been struggling quite a bit, especially against some of the tougher defenses in the league. In the 4 games before he faced the Seahawks, Carson Palmer had thrown 9 interceptions and had an average QB Rating of just 60.43. At the time, his 11 interceptions thrown was 2nd only to Eli Manning (15) of the Giants. The Seahawks Defense gave him a warm greeting at University of Phoenix Stadium, sacking him 7 times, limiting him to an average of just 5.7 yards/pass (his 2nd lowest yards/pass total of the season), and forcing him into throwing 2 interceptions for a Total QBR that game of just 11.3 … and an overall QB Rating of just 70.4.
As we talked about above however, Carson Palmer has been a different QB the past 7 Games. Palmer’s 69.3 Pass Completion Percentage is 2nd in the NFL over that time. He’s also sporting a QB Rating of 105.2 (Russell Wilson has a QB Rating of 113.1), so he’s been nearly as good as Wilson numbers-wise over the past 7 games.
Let’s tighten our focus on the microscope though and take a more in depth look at Carson Palmer’s season ...
[tdo=10]Carson Palmers’s 2013 Statistics (Weeks 1-15)[/tdo]Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-15-dvoa-ratings
As you can see, Carson Palmer HAS beaten a few top defenses at home (Carolina in Week 5 .... the Buccaneers in Week 4 ... and the Rams in Week 14), but Palmer has struggled against the top teams and top defenses when he’s had to go on the road.
The Buccaneers held him to a passer rating of just 62.2, intercepting him twice and allowing him to complete just 55.3% of his passes.
The Saints sacked him 4 times, harassed him into throwing 2 picks as well, and allowing him to complete just 51.4% of his passes (he had a passer rating of just 43.4 in that game).
In addition, while the Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 games, they also haven’t beaten or even faced a top defense during that time. How is Palmer going to effectively deal with a Seahawks defense that according to Football Outsiders has a defense that is far and away better than anyone else in the league (The Seahawks have a Defensive DVOA of -23.3) … and comes at you with numerous guys (Avril, Bennett, McDonald, Irvin, Clemons, etc) who can all pressure the QB?
One other interesting thing of note on Carson Palmer -- he attempted only 1 pass of 20 yards or more against the Titans -- it was incomplete.
Let’s continue to delve in to the offense by taking a look at Palmer’s top receiving targets this year ...
[tdo=8](2013) Cardinals Top Receiving Targets[/tdo]
Since the Seahawks last met these guys, the offensive numbers of the receiving corps have improved dramatically. Larry Fitzgerald has caught 43 passes … Andre Roberts 24 more passes … and Michael Floyd 32 more passes (including 9 that have gone for 20 yards or more) since the Seahawks and Cardinals last met. However, the Cardinals could be in trouble come Sunday. Tight end Rob Housler missed last game with a groin problem and is listed as Questionable for this one after not practicing Wednesday and being a limited participant in practice both Thursday and Friday. But the biggest issue heading in to this game has to be the status of Larry Fitzgerald, who suffered a concussion last week in the win over the Titans. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, but was a limited practice participant both Thursday and Friday. Fitzgerald made no bones about it, saying that he’s determined to go this weekend IF the neurologist he’s seeing clears him to play. As of Friday, he was still listed as Questionable.
If Fitzgerald’s unable to go on Sunday, it could be a long game for Palmer, who is himself a bit hobbled with a mild high ankle sprain he suffered last week. He was a limited participant in practice Thursday and Friday and is officially listed as Questionable for Sunday. It appears to be mild though, so all signs point to Palmer starting this game. As far as most of the nation is concerned, the news on Wednesday that CB Brandon Browner will be suspended indefinitely serves as a death knell for the Legion of Boom. Those that think that way though haven’t gotten the memo that Browner’s replacements haven’t just been good -- they’ve been flat out dominant. CB Byron Maxwell (6’1” 207 Pounds) had 2 interceptions against the Giants and didn’t allow any of the 5 passes thrown in his area to be completed. In the 2 games he’s started, Maxwell has intercepted 3 passes and has yet to allow a completion in 8 targets against him. He was nominated for NFC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance against the Giants. CB Jeremy Lane (6’0” 190 Pounds) was targeted 7 times and though he allowed 4 completions, he yielded a grand total of 22 yards. Against the 49ers, Lane allowed just 1 of 4 passes to be completed against him. Lane is an aggressive, fast (4.48 on his Pro Day back in 2012) corner with excellent hands and a real eye for the ball -- a guy that several scouts out there trumpeted after the Seahawks selected him in the 6th Round last year.
Russ Lande a one time scout for the Rams said of Lane after the Seahawks drafted him ...
"The [Seahawks] hit a home run with pick of Jeremy Lane. He is a physical and tough CB with the coverage skills to eventually challenge for playing time."
The National Football Post’s Greg Gabriel (a one time personnel man for the Bears) concurred, calling called Lane a “genuine sleeper”.
Brandon Browner last played against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10 -- nearly 6 weeks ago. Over their last 4 games (without Browner), the Seattle Seahawks have held …
Christian Ponder to a QB Rating of 53.0 and a Total QBR of 38.6 in Week 11
Drew Brees to a QB Rating of 77.4 and a Total QBR of 22.7 in Week 13
Colin Kaepernick to a QB Rating of 67.5 and a Total QBR of 41.5 in Week 14
Eli Manning to an amazingly low QB Rating of 31.9 and a Total QBR of just 2.1 in Week 15
Not bad for a team’s 4th and 5th corners, eh? On Thursday, Jeremy Lane was listed on the team’s injury report as not having practiced due to an ankle injury. Pete Carroll told 97.3 FM on Friday morning that was merely a precautionary move, saying … "We'll find out with Jeremy in the morning here. It's not bad. He went through the walk-throughs and all that stuff. We were resting him yesterday. It's just a sore ankle." He ended up being a full participant in practice on Friday and is listed as Probable for this game. If for some reason Lane isn’t able to go on Sunday for some reason, I’d look for recently signed Perrish Cox (6’0” 190 Pounds) to get the nod. Stay tuned.
Let’s flip over to the other side of the ball now and discuss how Seattle’s Offense matches up with Arizona’s Defense ...
Key #4: Immovable Object vs. Unstoppable Force
Marshawn Lynch ...
Last week, Marshawn Lynch rushed for just 47 yards -- the 4th straight game in which he failed to crack the 100 yard rushing mark. What’s most concerning for many Seahawks fans is that Lynch has had all 5 of his starting offensive lineman back seemingly healthy and playing for 3 straight games now. Like the traffic cop who urges you on after a little fender bender, ProFootball Focus says there is nothing to see here ...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/16/refo-seahawks-giants-week-15/
That said, if you’ve not had your antennas up and been tuned in, we should probably expect a traffic jam, as Arizona enters Sunday’s game as the NFL’s #1 Defense Against the Run. They come in to this game having allowed just …
83.2 Rushing Yards/Game (Fewest in the NFL)
3.6 Yards/Rushing Attempt Allowed (2nd Fewest in the NFL)
308 Rushing Attempts (2nd Fewest in the NFL)
62 First Downs (4th Fewest in the NFL)
5 Rushing TD’s (Tied for 4th Fewest in the NFL)
20.8 Points/Game (8th Fewest in the NFL)
Football Outsiders concurs that the Cardinals Defense is very good, as they have them listed as having a Defensive DVOA of -15.5% (2nd in the NFL behind only the Seahawks).
As has been the case for the past several years, it all starts up front, where DE Darnell Dockett (6’4” 290 Pounds) and DE Calais Campbell (6’8” 300 Pounds) set the tone. Campbell has 6.0 Sacks and 8 Tackles for Loss this year. He had 7 QB Pressures last week, so be looking in your side mirrors for him. Dockett, working on the other side, has racked up 4.5 Sacks and 9 Tackles of Loss on the year. Those two will certainly make it challenging on LT Russell Okung 96’5” 310 Pounds) and RT Breno Giacomini (6’7” 318 Pounds) for sure.
The linebacking corps of this Cardinals team is among the very best in the game, highlighted by the very talented LILB Daryl Washington (6’2” 230 Pounds) who comes in to this game with 63 Tackles, 2.0 Sacks, 7 Tackles for Loss, and 10 Passes Defensed. He can rush the passer, drop back and cover receivers well, and is a very sure tackler against the run. Last season, Washington put up Pro Bowl numbers, leading the team in tackles (134), Sacks (9.0), and 8 Tackles for Loss. He is hard hitting explosive player with a real nose for the football. Against the Titans this last week, he had 5 stops in the passing game and deflected 2 passes.
RILB Karlos Dansby (6’4” 250 Pounds) returned to the Cardinals as a Free Agent this past offseason and has really shored up that core, leading the team with 111 Tackles and tallying 6.5 Sacks … 7 Tackles for Loss … and an incredible 17 Passes Defensed. He has a real knack for quickly diagnosing and closing on the football and some are talking about him as being a shoo in to start in the Pro Bowl. ROLB Matt Shaughnessy (6’5” 285 Pounds)[29 Tackles … 3.0 Sacks … 6 TFL] … and LOLB John Abraham (6’4” 263 pounds) [33 Tackles …11.5 Sacks … 4 TFL’s] make this Front 7 (statistically speaking) the most difficult in the NFL to run on. Shaughnessy was a limited participant in practice both Thursday and Friday due to a groin issue and is listed as Questionable for this game. If he’s not able to go on Sunday, I’d look for LB Marcus Benard (6’2” 256 Pounds) [14 Tackles … 2.5 Sacks … 1 PD] to get the start there.
Does any of that mean anything whatsoever to Pete Carroll or alter his plans in any way? Not one bit. At his weekly press conference on Wednesday this week, Carroll said the following ...
http://www.seahawks.com/videos-phot...nference/ae643193-e7d9-46c1-951d-47aaf890b2c9
The Seahawks rushed for 135 Yards on 32 Carries (4.2 Yards/Carry) and 1 TD back in Week 7 at University of Phoenix Stadium. As Carroll said, that doesn’t mean that the Seahawks are going to necessarily have success now. For sure if Carroll and company are bound and determined to run the ball, it’s going to be strength vs. strength. There is another avenue for moving the ball however that appears as if it will be far more successful ...
Key#5: Straighten Up and Fly Right …
What more is there to say about Russell Wilson? After last weekend, Russell Wilson stands alone, having won more games in his first 2 seasons (23) than any other QB in NFL History since 1966. And he’s not done with breaking records either, as he’s just 3 Touchdown Passes away from passing Peyton Manning for the 2nd most passing TD’s over his first 2 seasons. Coming in to the league and to this season, Russell Wilson was an afterthought in the minds of many critics, as other young QB’s like Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick were thought more highly of. Now, it’s those guys who are starting to be considered 2nd Tier … as the national conversation has started to include serious discussion as to whether or not Wilson deserves to be a candidate for the MVP this season. A realistic argument could be made for that, as there is no way the Seahawks are 12-2 without him. They certainly will need him again on Sunday, as this is a unit that is playing some very good football and has been one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. As noted above, these guys can really get after the QB and cause havoc in the passing game ...
RILB Karlos Dansby … 111 Tackles … 6.5 Sacks … 7 TFL’s … 17 PD … 3 INT
LDE Calais Campbell … 49 Tackles … 6 Sacks … 8 TFL’s … 6 PD
RDE Darnell Dockett … 40 Tackles … 4.5 Sacks … 9 TFL’s … 0 PD … 0 INT
LILB Daryl Washington … 63 Tackles … 2.0 Sacks … 7 TFL’s … 10 PD … 2 INT
ROLB Matt Shaughnessy … 29 Tackles … 3.0 Sacks … 6 TFL … 1 PD
The Cardinals most dangerous pass rusher by far though … has been 35 year old John Abraham (6’4” 263 pounds) [33 Tackles … 11.5 Sacks … 4 Forced Fumbles] -- one of the NFL’s most dangerous pass rushers and is certainly a guy Wilson will need to keep an eye out for.
The Cardinals secondary is a gritty, veteran bunch led by CB Patrick Peterson (6’1” 219 Pounds) who has 3 interceptions and has 12 Passes Defensed on the season. He’s a legitimate shut down corner and many opposing QB’s not named Wilson would simply avoid throwing to his side altogether. On the other side, Jerraud Powers (5’10” 187 Pounds) has 56 Tackles and 14 Passes Defensed on the season and has been a physical presence on the field. That said, the 5th year corner has had his issues in the past, struggling to get off blocks and taking too many chances. Last season, opposing QB’s had a rating of 105.0 when going at Powers, so keep an eye on that. The guy that has really been outstanding in pass coverage this year has been RILB Karlos Dansby, who has 3 INT’s on the season and leads the team 17 Passes Defensed (7th most in the NFL). He will make it challenging for TE’s Zach Miller (6’5” 255 Pounds) and Luke Willson (6’5” 252 Pounds) coming across the middle for sure. The Cardinals Safeties are a solid, physical bunch overall. SS Yeremiah Bell (6’0” 205 Pounds) is a 10 year vet who made the Pro Bowl with Miami back in 2009. Bell has 66 Tackles … 10 Passes Defensed … 2 INT’s… 5 Tackles for Loss … and a Sack on his resume thus far this season. All of that said though, it appears the Cardinals secondary could have some holes in it come Sunday. FS Rashad Johnson (5’11” 204 Pounds) made everyone out there cringe several weeks ago when the story came out that he took off his glove on the sideline … and part of his finger stayed in it. How’s THAT for physical play? Johnson has 52 Tackles … 3 INT’s … and 5 Passes Defensed on the season … but he hasn’t practiced all this week due to a high ankle sprain he suffered last week. He’s officially listed as Doubtful, so keep an eye on that. If he’s not able to go, Head Coach Bruce Arians said this week that the team would go with rookie S Tony Jefferson (5’11” 212 Pounds), an UDFA out of Oklahoma, who coming in to college was listed as the #4 Safety prospect in the nation back in 2010 by Rivals.com.
The most significant guy whom this team will certainly miss this week though … is the rookie CB out of Wisconsin Tyrann Mathieu (5’9” 186 Pounds) -- the Honey Badger. Mathieu had been this team’s starting nickel corner and had been so outstanding that some were starting to talk about him being a Pro Bowl consideration and a serious candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. On the season, Mathieu had racked up 65 Tackles ... Passes Defensed … 2 INT’s … had 5 Tackles for Loss … and even had a Sack. I say “had” because the Honey Badger’s season came to an abrupt end after tearing both the ACL and LCL in his left knee in the Rams game 2 weeks ago returning a kickoff. The Honey Badger had been allowing a QB Rating of just 62.0 against him as a slot corner. His injury has really caused a lot of changes in that secondary. Last week in nickel packages, starting RCB Jerraud Powers was moved to nickel cornerback and CB Antoine Cason (6’1” 195 Pounds) entered the game, defending receivers on the outside. Pro FootballFocus had Cason listed in the Bottom 10 as far as cover corners last year when he was with the Chargers and that certainly appeared to be true last week.
Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick lit up this secondary like a Christmas Tree last week to a Jingle Bell Rock tune of 402 yards on 36 of 58 passing (62.1% Completion Rate) … 4 TD’s … and 2 INT’s … for a QB Rating of 91.3 and a Total QBR of 60.0.
And though he’s had another Pro Bowl season, Patrick Peterson was absolutely burned crispy by Fitzpatrick last week. Peterson allowed 9 catches on 10 targets for 146 yards including a TD to Michael Preston late in the 4th Quarter that tied the game … and then turned around and yielded a 33 yard bomb to Nate Washington in Overtime. Against a QB like Fitzpatrick (whom the Legion of Boom held to a QB Rating of just 46.8 in Week 3) … that’s not good.
On the season, Arizona’s secondary has been very opportunistic. Arizona’s 28 Takeaways this year ranks 4th in the NFL behind the Chiefs (35), Seahawks (33), and Buccaneers (29). Their 19 interceptions on the year is 5th Most in the NFL … and they have returned 4 of those Interceptions for TD’s this season (tied for 3rd in the NFL). And Antoine Cason also made his share of plays as well against the Titans, coming up with two interceptions including one returned for a touchdown and a fumble recovery. So, they can be dangerous for sure.
That said, this secondary has also allowed 26 TD Passes against them (Tied for 21st in the league), so they weren’t exactly invulnerable before Mathieu’s injury either.
Seattle’s much maligned Offensive Line has done much better of late protecting Wilson of late. In their first 8 games, the Seahawks Offensive Line allowed 27 Sacks, as injuries to Russell Okung, Breno Giacomini, and Max Unger created a lot of instability due to all the shuffling of personnel. Since Week 9 however ... they have allowed only 9 sacks. Russell Wilson’s QB Rating has gone from 99.0 over the first 8 games … to 113.1 since that time.
It looks like it’s going to be Next Man Up time for the Seahawks Offensive Line on Sunday, as J.R. Sweezy was listed on Thursday’s Injury Report as having a concussion. Pete Carroll told 97.3 FM Friday Morning, "It's not looking too good for him.” Sweezy didn’t end up practicing on Friday and is listed as OUT for this game, so I’d look for it to be the Paul McQuistan and James Carpenter show.
Back in Week 7 in Glendale, Russell Wilson had a field day, completing 18 of 29 passes (62.1% Completion Rate) for 235 Yards … 3 Touchdowns … and 0 Interceptions (good for a QB Rating of 122.1 and a Total QBR of 58.0).
If the Seahawks Offensive Line can keep the Big Birds at bay and provides Russell Wilson with time in the pocket to throw the ball … then I very much like Wilson’s chances AT HOME to surpass those numbers and notch win #24 on his belt.
Bold Prediction …
For what it’s worth, Arizona leads the all-time series against Seattle 15-14, but the Seahawks have won 5 of the last 7 games. Seattle has won the last 3 times the 2 teams have faced one another at Century Link -- the last time a 58-0 whooping on Dec. 9, 2012.
Though Pete Carroll and company say they are going to go with “Strength against Strength” and try to run the ball … I see Russell Wilson as being the one who is going to carry the Seahawks to victory come Sunday. I predict that Tyrann Mathieu’s absence is going to loom large in this one and that Wilson ends up roasting this bird over a spit in front of a sizzling Century Link Field. Seattle has not lost a game at home since Christmas Eve of 2011 … and there’s no way that I see the Grinch dropping a lump of coal in to the Seahawks’ stockings come Sunday. Seattle wins the NFC West … the #1 Seed … and makes an emphatic statement that the right to go to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle this year.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 31
Cardinals 13
5 Keys to a Seahawks Victory vs. the Cardinals …
Above: Seahawk players just before taking the field against the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 7 (10/17/13)
The last time the Seahawks faced the Cardinals was a mere 9 weeks ago at University of Phoenix Stadium. On that day, the Hawks absolutely harassed quarterback Carson Palmer, sacking him 7 times, forcing him into throwing 2 interceptions, and making him look like a shot fighter in a 34-22 whooping. That was then … this is now. Since that time, that fighter has gotten up off the matt and has been landing haymakers, knocking out 6 out of the 7 opponents they’ve faced and averaging 29.85 points per game. Where once Arizona had been considered just another tomato can … they now stand at 9-5 and on the brink of making the playoffs if they can win their final 2 games and somehow get help along the way. Standing in their way though, is a Seahawks team that looks very much like a Super Bowl contender at this point. They come in to this game motivated as well, as Seattle stands just 1 way away from the NFC West Crown, the #1 Seed, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Will the Seahawks reach up and seize the crown this Sunday … or will the Cardinals come in and snatch a much needed win for them. Here are 5 Keys to Victory for the Seahawks this Sunday ...
Before we get into those though, here is a breakdown of the numbers, comparing the offenses and defenses of these 2 teams. You can refer back to this at your convenience as we move forward ...
| Cardinals Off. Category/NFL Rank | Seahawks Def. Category/NFL Rank | Seahawks Off. Category/NFL Rank | Cardinals Def. Category/NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 339.5 Yards/Game (19th) | 279.5 Yards/Game Allwd (1st) | 354.5 Yards/Game (12th) | 322.3 Yards/Game Allwd (7th Fewest) |
| 24.5 Points Scored/Game (14th) | 14.6 Points/Game Allwd (1st) | 27.1 Points Scored/Game (5th) | 20.8 Points/Game Allwd (8th) |
| 36% on 3rd Downs (Tied 19th) | 37% of 3rd Down Allwd (Tied 11th) | 39% on 3rd Downs (Tied 11th) | 37% of 3rd Downs Allwd (Tied 11th) |
| 21 Fumbles (Tied 8th) | 25 Fumbles Caused (Tied 1st) | 24 Fumbles (6th Most) | 18 Fumbles Caused (16th) |
| 357 Rushing Attempts (23rd) | 347 Rush Attempts Against (11th Fewest) | 453 Rushing Attempts (2nd) | 308 Rush Att Against (2nd Fewest) |
| 1,318 Rushing Yds (25th) | 1,474 Rush Yds Allwd (10th Fewest) | 1,974 Rushing Yards (2nd) | 1,165 Yards/Game Allwd (Fewest) |
| 94.1 Rushing Yds/Game (25th) | 105.3 Rush Yds/Game Allwd (10th Fewest) | 141.0 Rushing Yds/Game (2nd) | 83.2 Rush Yds/Game Allwd (Fewest) |
| 8 Runs of 20+ Yds (Tied 16th) | 5 Runs of 20+ Yds Allwd (Tied 4th Fewest) | 10 Runs of 20+ Yds (Tied 8th) | 8 Runs of 20+ Yds Allwd (14th Fewest) |
| 12 Rushing TD’s (Tied 14th) | 4 Rushing TD’s Allwd (Tied 2nd Fewest) | 13 Rushing TD’s (Tied 9th) | 5 Rushing TD’s Allwd (Tied 4th Fewest) |
| 77 First Downs (21st) | 78 First Downs Allwd (12th Fewest) | 106 First Downs (Tied 3rd) | 62 First Downs Allwd (4th Fewest) |
| 6 Rushing Fumbles (Tied 12th) | 7 Rush Fumbles Caused (Tied 6th Most) | 6 Rushing Fumbles (Tied 12th) | 6 Rush Fumbles Caused (Tied 9th) |
| 500 Pass Attempts (16th) | 469 Pass Att Against (24th) | 370 Pass Attempts (31st) | 564 Pass Att Against (3rd) |
| 3,435 Passing Yds (14th) | 2,439 Pass Yds Allwd (Fewest) | 2,989 Passing Yards (23rd) | 3,347 Pass Yds Allwd (18th Fewest) |
| 245.4 Passing Yds/Game (14th) | 174.2 Pass Yds/Game Allwd (Fewest) | 213.5 Passing Yds/Game (24th) | 239.1 Pass Yds/Game Allwd (17th Fewest) |
| 7.4 Average Yds/Pass (11th) | 5.8 Yds/Pass Att Allwd (Fewest) | 8.7 Average Yds/Pass (1st) | 6.5 Yds/Pass Allwd (5th Fewest) |
| 11.5 Avg. Yds/Reception (Tied 15th) | 9.9 Yds/Reception Allwd (Fewest) | 13.4 Avg Yds/Reception (2nd) | 10.9 Yds/Reception Allwd (Tied 6th Fewest) |
| 64.4% Pass Completion (9th) | 58.6% Pass Comp. Allwd (7th) | 65.1% Pass Completion (Tied 5th) | 59.4% Pass Comp. Allwd (Tied 11th) |
| 21 Passing TD’s (Tied 17th) | 14 Pass TD’s Allwd (Tied 2nd Fewest) | 25 Passing TD’s (Tied 9th) | 26 Pass TD’s Allwd (Tied 21st) |
| 39 Passes of 20+ Yds (Tied 23rd) | 27 Passes of 20+ Yds Allwd (Fewest) | 50 Passes of 20+ Yds (Tied 9th) | 43 Passes of 20+ Yds Allwd (11th Fewest) |
| 86.5 QB Rating (17th) | 65.5 QB Rating Allwd (1st) | 106.2 QB Rating (3rd) | 79.9 QB Rating Allwd (7th) |
| 17 Interceptions Thrown (Tied 6th Most) | 22 Interceptions (Most) | 8 Interceptions Thrown (Tied 2nd Least) | 19 Interceptions (5th) |
| 38 Sacks Allowed (Tied 12th Most) | 40 Sacks (Tied 9th) | 36 Sacks Allowed (Tied 19th) | 41 Sacks (Tied 7th) |
| 84 QB Hits Allowed (9th) | NA | 76 QB Hits Allowed (Tied 12th) | NA |
| NA | 96 Passes Defensed (8th) | NA | 108 Passes Defensed (Tied 2nd) |
And now, on to Key to Victory #1 ...
Key #1: Cage the Cardinal Runners …
As was the case last week, let’s go ahead and start our look at the Cardinals Offense by checking out a breakdown of their run to pass ratio this season ...
357 Rushing Attempts …41.66% of Offense
500 Pass Attempts … 58.34% of Offense
857 Total Attempts
Just looking at the numbers, it would appear that the Cardinals have had a tendency to put the ball in Carson Palmer’s hands more than their running backs. However, that’s a bit deceptive. When the Seahawks last faced Arizona back in Week 7, Rashard Mendenhall (5’10” 225 Pounds) was the feature back and Seattle held him to just 22 yards on 13 carries (1.7 yards/rush) that day. Though he’s scored 8 touchdowns on the season, Mendenhall hasn’t had a great year, as he’s averaged a mere 3.1 yards/carry.
Enter Andre Ellington (5’9” 199 Pounds), Arizona’s 6th Round Pick this year out of Clemson, who since that time has become a much more of a featured part of the offense. In 94 Rushing Attempts this season, Ellington has 558 Yards on the ground … has averaged 5.9 Yards/Carry Avg. … scored 3 TD … and has 7 Runs of 20 Yards or more. In addition, he has also caught 34 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown as well.
If you take a look at his combined numbers, you’ll note that Andre Ellington has accounted for 26.33% of Arizona’s Rushing Offense … and 9.8% of their Passing Offense. So, in total, Ellington has accounted for 36.13% of the Cardinals Offense this season.
Last week against the Titans, Ellington showed his real versatility, as the Cardinals had him lined up at running back, out wide at the receiver position, as an inside slot receiver, and even as a tight end once. The result -- he had 71 yards rushing … and 87 yards receiving -- the first Cardinals player to lead the team in both rushing and receiving yards in a game since Marcel Shipp back in 2002.
One other little tidbit for ya -- the Cardinals don’t have a fullback on the roster and they generally use tight ends when they need a lead blocker. However, last Sunday the Cardinals pulled a Refrigerator Perry and used nose tackle Alameda Ta’amu (6’3” 348 Pounds) as a lead blocker. He ended up blocking on both of the Cardinals 2 rushing TD’s against the Titans. There’s the beef.
The week after the Cardinals faced the Seahawks, Ellington racked up 154 yards on the ground on 15 carries (10.3 Yards/Carry) and a touchdown, so he is perfectly capable of having a big day.
Containing Mendenhall, Ellington, and the run game (as usual) will be a huge priority for the Seahawks defense in this game. And to their credit, Seattle has done very well in that department lately. After allowing 200 yards on the ground to the Rams in Week 8 … and 205 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers at Century Link in Week 9 … the Seahawks run defense has really righted the ship ...
Falcons (Week 10 -- 11/10/13)… 16 Carries … 64 Yards Rushing (4.0 Yards/Carry)
Vikings (Week 11 -- 11/17/13) … 33 Carries … 132 Yards Rushing (4.0 Yards/Carry) … BUT, 58 of the Vikings 132 Rushing Yards in that game came against the 2nd and 3rd String after the starters were pulled at the start of the 4th Quarter. The Vikings managed only 73 yards on 28 carries on the ground total (2.81 Yards/Carry) against the starters.
Saints (Week 13 -- 12/2/13) …17 Carries … 44 Yards Rushing (2.6 Yards/Carry)
49ers (Week 14 -- 12/8/13) … 33 Carries … 163 Yards Rushing (4.9 Yards/Carry). However, 51 of Frank Gore’s yards came on 1 play. Take away that 1 play and the Seahawks limited San Francisco to 32 Carries … 112 Yards Rushing (just 3.5 Yards/Carry).
Giants (Week 15 -- 12/15/13) … 14 Carries … 25 Yards Rushing (1.8 Yards.Carry).
And for those who might have been gnashing their teeth over the prospect of losing linebacker K.J. Wright for 6 weeks due to a broken bone in his foot, allow me to provide you with a bit of a mouth guard. This past week, linebackers coach Ken Norton, Jr. raved about Wright’s backup, Malcolm Smith (6’0” 226 Pounds), saying of him, “When I say fast, I mean he is weapon’s grade fast -- He is WOW fast!” Despite the fact that he’s technically a back-up, ProFootball Focus has Smith rated as the 4th Best 4-3 Outside Linebacker in the NFL, noting that he’s yet to miss a tackle. That 4.4 speed and ability to quickly diagnose and close on the ball was certainly on display this past week, as Smith had 5 Tackles against the Giants including 1 Tackle for Loss.
Like last week, if the Seahawks can shut down that running attack and make the Cardinals offense one dimensional, then Seattle pass rushers should be able to pin their ears back and come after Pete Carroll’s former USC star with a vengeance. Will the Hawks be able to do just that? Let’s take a look at the war in the trenches for the answer to that question …
Key #2: Win the Battle of the Big Birds …
Coming in to that Week 7 Matchup, Arizona’s Offensive Line had surrendered only 13 Sacks … but had also allowed 34 QB Hits as well (11th Most in the league at that time). Though Football Outsiders had them as the 7th Best Run Blocking Team … and the 8th Best Pass Blocking team, ProFootball Focus had a far different opinion. At the beginning of October, here is where ProFootball Focus had the Cardinals Offensive Line ranked and what they had to say about them then ...
Source:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/09/ranking-the-2013-offensive-lines-first-quarter/
At the beginning of the season, the Cardinals ended up trading away Left Tackle Levi Brown to the Steelers for a conditional draft choice, convinced that he was no longer the answer at the position. Former Colt Bradley Sowell was inserted in his place. Here is what ProFootball Focus had to say about his performance coming in to that first Seahawks game ...
Source:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/14/refo-cardinals-49ers-week-6/
Pass Protection-wise, the transformation in the Cardinals Offensive Line from the 1st Half … to the 2nd Half of the season has been remarkable. Here are some of the numbers ...
| Time Frame | Pass Comp% | Pass Yds/Att | Pass Yards/Game | TD’s | Passes of 20 Yards+ | INT’s | Sacks Allwd | QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-8 | 61.4% | 6.8 | 221.4 | 10 | 17 | 14 | 23 | 72.7 |
| Weeks 9-15 | 68.4% | 8.3 | 277.3 | 11 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 105.2 |
Interestingly enough though, the Run Blocking appears to be a whole different matter …
| Time Frame | Rush Att | Rush Yards/Att | Rush Yards/Game | Rush TD’s | Runs of 20 Yards+ | Rush Fumbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-8 | 184 | 4.0 | 93.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Weeks 9-15 | 173 | 3.3 | 95.5 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
Between last year and this one, the Cardinals Offensive Line has improved immensely. Last year, Cardinals QB’s were sacked 56 times, as the Line was ranked #26 in the NFL by ProFootball Focus. This year has been a different story. Here is how their line has performed in comparison to Seattle’s ...
Source:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
The opinion of Football Outsiders has changed quite a lot in the space of 9 weeks, as they now have Arizona’s line ranked basically in the middle of the pack. Arizona has now allowed a total of 84 QB Hits on the season. In other words, coming in to that Seattle game they had allowed 34 QB Hits (an average of 5.67 QB Hits/Game) … and they allowed 13 QB Hits in Week 7 to a fired up Seahawks defense. Since that time, they have given up 37 QB Hits (an average of 5.29 QB Hits/Game). So yes they’ve improved … but just how much remains to be seen. A fired up Seahawks Front 7 and an electrified 12th Man will certainly be the litmus test.
ProFootball Focus goes on to spell out just how important the offensive line play for the Cardinals has been and will be in this game ...
Source:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/20/3tfo-cardinals-seahawks-week-16/
Let’s shift our attention now to the one of the most apparently improved elements of this Cardinals team -- the passing game -- Key to Victory #3 ...
Key #3: Be The Net Over The Aviary …
Coming to that Week 7 game, Carson Palmer had been struggling quite a bit, especially against some of the tougher defenses in the league. In the 4 games before he faced the Seahawks, Carson Palmer had thrown 9 interceptions and had an average QB Rating of just 60.43. At the time, his 11 interceptions thrown was 2nd only to Eli Manning (15) of the Giants. The Seahawks Defense gave him a warm greeting at University of Phoenix Stadium, sacking him 7 times, limiting him to an average of just 5.7 yards/pass (his 2nd lowest yards/pass total of the season), and forcing him into throwing 2 interceptions for a Total QBR that game of just 11.3 … and an overall QB Rating of just 70.4.
As we talked about above however, Carson Palmer has been a different QB the past 7 Games. Palmer’s 69.3 Pass Completion Percentage is 2nd in the NFL over that time. He’s also sporting a QB Rating of 105.2 (Russell Wilson has a QB Rating of 113.1), so he’s been nearly as good as Wilson numbers-wise over the past 7 games.
Let’s tighten our focus on the microscope though and take a more in depth look at Carson Palmer’s season ...
| Week | Opponent | Opp. Def DVOA (Football Outsiders) | Comp. | Att. | Comp% | Yards | TD’s | INT’s | QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (9/8) | 24-27 LOSS at Rams | -3.7% (13th) | 26 | 40 | 65.0% | 327 | 2 | 1 | 96.6 |
| 2 (9/15) | 25-21 WIN vs Lions | -1.8% (14th) | 22 | 39 | 56.4% | 248 | 1 | 1 | 73.5 |
| 3 (9/22) | 7-31 LOSS at Saints | -5.2% (11th) | 18 | 35 | 51.4% | 187 | 0 | 2 | 43.4 |
| 4 (9/29) | 13-10 WIN at Buccaneers | -10.7% (6th) | 21 | 38 | 55.3% | 248 | 1 | 2 | 62.2 |
| 5 (10/6) | 22-6 WIN vs Panthers | -13.4% (3rd) | 19 | 28 | 67.9% | 175 | 1 | 3 | 57.0 |
| 6 (10/13) | 20-32 LOSS at 49ers | -8.5% (8th) | 25 | 41 | 61.0% | 298 | 2 | 2 | 79.1 |
| 7 (10/17) | 22-34 LOSS vs. Seahawks | -23.3% (1st) | 30 | 45 | 66.7% | 258 | 1 | 2 | 70.4 |
| 8 (10/27) | 27-13 WIN vs. Falcons | 12.5% (29th) | 13 | 18 | 72.2% | 172 | 2 | 1 | 116.0 |
| 10 (11/10) | 27-24 WIN vs. Texans | 1.8% 18th) | 20 | 32 | 62.5% | 241 | 2 | 1 | 93.4 |
| 11 (11/17) | 27-14 WIN at Jaguars | 12.4% (28th) | 30 | 42 | 71.4% | 419 | 2 | 0 | 119.0 |
| 12 (11/24) | 40-11 WIN vs. Colts | 1.5% (17th) | 26 | 37 | 70.3% | 314 | 2 | 0 | 114.0 |
| 13 (12/1) | 21-24 LOSS at Eagles | 8.0% (25th) | 24 | 41 | 58.5% | 302 | 3 | 2 | 85.6 |
| 14 (12/8) | 30-10 WIN vs. Rams | -3.7% (13th) | 27 | 32 | 84.4% | 269 | 1 | 0 | 112.1 |
| 15 (12/15) | 37-34 WIN at Titans | 2.5% (19th) | 20 | 30 | 66.7% | 231 | 1 | 0 | 100.8 |
| Season Totals | NA | NA | 321 | 498 | 64.5% | 3,689 | 21 | 17 | 86.5 |
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-15-dvoa-ratings
As you can see, Carson Palmer HAS beaten a few top defenses at home (Carolina in Week 5 .... the Buccaneers in Week 4 ... and the Rams in Week 14), but Palmer has struggled against the top teams and top defenses when he’s had to go on the road.
The Buccaneers held him to a passer rating of just 62.2, intercepting him twice and allowing him to complete just 55.3% of his passes.
The Saints sacked him 4 times, harassed him into throwing 2 picks as well, and allowing him to complete just 51.4% of his passes (he had a passer rating of just 43.4 in that game).
In addition, while the Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 games, they also haven’t beaten or even faced a top defense during that time. How is Palmer going to effectively deal with a Seahawks defense that according to Football Outsiders has a defense that is far and away better than anyone else in the league (The Seahawks have a Defensive DVOA of -23.3) … and comes at you with numerous guys (Avril, Bennett, McDonald, Irvin, Clemons, etc) who can all pressure the QB?
One other interesting thing of note on Carson Palmer -- he attempted only 1 pass of 20 yards or more against the Titans -- it was incomplete.
Let’s continue to delve in to the offense by taking a look at Palmer’s top receiving targets this year ...
| Receiver | Size | Catches | Yards | Yards/Catch | TD’s | #Catches of 20 Yds+ | % of Passing Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR Larry Fitzgerald | 6’3” 218 Lbs | 73 | 823 | 11.3 | 10 | 8 | 24.0% |
| WR Michael Floyd | 6’2” 220 Lbs | 58 | 919 | 15.8 | 4 | 15 | 19.0% |
| WR Andre Roberts | 5'11" 195 Lbs | 38 | 372 | 9.8 | 1 | 1 | 13.6% |
| TE Rob Housler | 6’5” 250 Lbs | 34 | 376 | 11.1 | 1 | 5 | 9.8% |
| RB Andre Ellington | 5'9" 199 Lbs | 34 | 351 | 10.3 | 1 | 3 | 9.8% |
| TE Jim Dray | 6'5" 255 Lbs | 22 | 181 | 8.2 | 2 | 0 | 5.6% |
| RB Rashard Mendenhall | 5’10” 225 Lbs | 16 | 121 | 7.6 | 0 | 2 | 3.8% |
| WR Jaron Brown | 6’2” 205 Lbs | 11 | 140 | 12.7 | 1 | 1 | 3.4% |
| RB Alfonso Smith | 6’1” 209 Lbs | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% |
Since the Seahawks last met these guys, the offensive numbers of the receiving corps have improved dramatically. Larry Fitzgerald has caught 43 passes … Andre Roberts 24 more passes … and Michael Floyd 32 more passes (including 9 that have gone for 20 yards or more) since the Seahawks and Cardinals last met. However, the Cardinals could be in trouble come Sunday. Tight end Rob Housler missed last game with a groin problem and is listed as Questionable for this one after not practicing Wednesday and being a limited participant in practice both Thursday and Friday. But the biggest issue heading in to this game has to be the status of Larry Fitzgerald, who suffered a concussion last week in the win over the Titans. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, but was a limited practice participant both Thursday and Friday. Fitzgerald made no bones about it, saying that he’s determined to go this weekend IF the neurologist he’s seeing clears him to play. As of Friday, he was still listed as Questionable.
If Fitzgerald’s unable to go on Sunday, it could be a long game for Palmer, who is himself a bit hobbled with a mild high ankle sprain he suffered last week. He was a limited participant in practice Thursday and Friday and is officially listed as Questionable for Sunday. It appears to be mild though, so all signs point to Palmer starting this game. As far as most of the nation is concerned, the news on Wednesday that CB Brandon Browner will be suspended indefinitely serves as a death knell for the Legion of Boom. Those that think that way though haven’t gotten the memo that Browner’s replacements haven’t just been good -- they’ve been flat out dominant. CB Byron Maxwell (6’1” 207 Pounds) had 2 interceptions against the Giants and didn’t allow any of the 5 passes thrown in his area to be completed. In the 2 games he’s started, Maxwell has intercepted 3 passes and has yet to allow a completion in 8 targets against him. He was nominated for NFC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance against the Giants. CB Jeremy Lane (6’0” 190 Pounds) was targeted 7 times and though he allowed 4 completions, he yielded a grand total of 22 yards. Against the 49ers, Lane allowed just 1 of 4 passes to be completed against him. Lane is an aggressive, fast (4.48 on his Pro Day back in 2012) corner with excellent hands and a real eye for the ball -- a guy that several scouts out there trumpeted after the Seahawks selected him in the 6th Round last year.
Russ Lande a one time scout for the Rams said of Lane after the Seahawks drafted him ...
"The [Seahawks] hit a home run with pick of Jeremy Lane. He is a physical and tough CB with the coverage skills to eventually challenge for playing time."
The National Football Post’s Greg Gabriel (a one time personnel man for the Bears) concurred, calling called Lane a “genuine sleeper”.
Brandon Browner last played against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10 -- nearly 6 weeks ago. Over their last 4 games (without Browner), the Seattle Seahawks have held …
Christian Ponder to a QB Rating of 53.0 and a Total QBR of 38.6 in Week 11
Drew Brees to a QB Rating of 77.4 and a Total QBR of 22.7 in Week 13
Colin Kaepernick to a QB Rating of 67.5 and a Total QBR of 41.5 in Week 14
Eli Manning to an amazingly low QB Rating of 31.9 and a Total QBR of just 2.1 in Week 15
Not bad for a team’s 4th and 5th corners, eh? On Thursday, Jeremy Lane was listed on the team’s injury report as not having practiced due to an ankle injury. Pete Carroll told 97.3 FM on Friday morning that was merely a precautionary move, saying … "We'll find out with Jeremy in the morning here. It's not bad. He went through the walk-throughs and all that stuff. We were resting him yesterday. It's just a sore ankle." He ended up being a full participant in practice on Friday and is listed as Probable for this game. If for some reason Lane isn’t able to go on Sunday for some reason, I’d look for recently signed Perrish Cox (6’0” 190 Pounds) to get the nod. Stay tuned.
Let’s flip over to the other side of the ball now and discuss how Seattle’s Offense matches up with Arizona’s Defense ...
Key #4: Immovable Object vs. Unstoppable Force
Marshawn Lynch ...
Last week, Marshawn Lynch rushed for just 47 yards -- the 4th straight game in which he failed to crack the 100 yard rushing mark. What’s most concerning for many Seahawks fans is that Lynch has had all 5 of his starting offensive lineman back seemingly healthy and playing for 3 straight games now. Like the traffic cop who urges you on after a little fender bender, ProFootball Focus says there is nothing to see here ...
Source:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/16/refo-seahawks-giants-week-15/
That said, if you’ve not had your antennas up and been tuned in, we should probably expect a traffic jam, as Arizona enters Sunday’s game as the NFL’s #1 Defense Against the Run. They come in to this game having allowed just …
83.2 Rushing Yards/Game (Fewest in the NFL)
3.6 Yards/Rushing Attempt Allowed (2nd Fewest in the NFL)
308 Rushing Attempts (2nd Fewest in the NFL)
62 First Downs (4th Fewest in the NFL)
5 Rushing TD’s (Tied for 4th Fewest in the NFL)
20.8 Points/Game (8th Fewest in the NFL)
Football Outsiders concurs that the Cardinals Defense is very good, as they have them listed as having a Defensive DVOA of -15.5% (2nd in the NFL behind only the Seahawks).
As has been the case for the past several years, it all starts up front, where DE Darnell Dockett (6’4” 290 Pounds) and DE Calais Campbell (6’8” 300 Pounds) set the tone. Campbell has 6.0 Sacks and 8 Tackles for Loss this year. He had 7 QB Pressures last week, so be looking in your side mirrors for him. Dockett, working on the other side, has racked up 4.5 Sacks and 9 Tackles of Loss on the year. Those two will certainly make it challenging on LT Russell Okung 96’5” 310 Pounds) and RT Breno Giacomini (6’7” 318 Pounds) for sure.
The linebacking corps of this Cardinals team is among the very best in the game, highlighted by the very talented LILB Daryl Washington (6’2” 230 Pounds) who comes in to this game with 63 Tackles, 2.0 Sacks, 7 Tackles for Loss, and 10 Passes Defensed. He can rush the passer, drop back and cover receivers well, and is a very sure tackler against the run. Last season, Washington put up Pro Bowl numbers, leading the team in tackles (134), Sacks (9.0), and 8 Tackles for Loss. He is hard hitting explosive player with a real nose for the football. Against the Titans this last week, he had 5 stops in the passing game and deflected 2 passes.
RILB Karlos Dansby (6’4” 250 Pounds) returned to the Cardinals as a Free Agent this past offseason and has really shored up that core, leading the team with 111 Tackles and tallying 6.5 Sacks … 7 Tackles for Loss … and an incredible 17 Passes Defensed. He has a real knack for quickly diagnosing and closing on the football and some are talking about him as being a shoo in to start in the Pro Bowl. ROLB Matt Shaughnessy (6’5” 285 Pounds)[29 Tackles … 3.0 Sacks … 6 TFL] … and LOLB John Abraham (6’4” 263 pounds) [33 Tackles …11.5 Sacks … 4 TFL’s] make this Front 7 (statistically speaking) the most difficult in the NFL to run on. Shaughnessy was a limited participant in practice both Thursday and Friday due to a groin issue and is listed as Questionable for this game. If he’s not able to go on Sunday, I’d look for LB Marcus Benard (6’2” 256 Pounds) [14 Tackles … 2.5 Sacks … 1 PD] to get the start there.
Does any of that mean anything whatsoever to Pete Carroll or alter his plans in any way? Not one bit. At his weekly press conference on Wednesday this week, Carroll said the following ...
Source:
http://www.seahawks.com/videos-phot...nference/ae643193-e7d9-46c1-951d-47aaf890b2c9
The Seahawks rushed for 135 Yards on 32 Carries (4.2 Yards/Carry) and 1 TD back in Week 7 at University of Phoenix Stadium. As Carroll said, that doesn’t mean that the Seahawks are going to necessarily have success now. For sure if Carroll and company are bound and determined to run the ball, it’s going to be strength vs. strength. There is another avenue for moving the ball however that appears as if it will be far more successful ...
Key#5: Straighten Up and Fly Right …
What more is there to say about Russell Wilson? After last weekend, Russell Wilson stands alone, having won more games in his first 2 seasons (23) than any other QB in NFL History since 1966. And he’s not done with breaking records either, as he’s just 3 Touchdown Passes away from passing Peyton Manning for the 2nd most passing TD’s over his first 2 seasons. Coming in to the league and to this season, Russell Wilson was an afterthought in the minds of many critics, as other young QB’s like Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick were thought more highly of. Now, it’s those guys who are starting to be considered 2nd Tier … as the national conversation has started to include serious discussion as to whether or not Wilson deserves to be a candidate for the MVP this season. A realistic argument could be made for that, as there is no way the Seahawks are 12-2 without him. They certainly will need him again on Sunday, as this is a unit that is playing some very good football and has been one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. As noted above, these guys can really get after the QB and cause havoc in the passing game ...
RILB Karlos Dansby … 111 Tackles … 6.5 Sacks … 7 TFL’s … 17 PD … 3 INT
LDE Calais Campbell … 49 Tackles … 6 Sacks … 8 TFL’s … 6 PD
RDE Darnell Dockett … 40 Tackles … 4.5 Sacks … 9 TFL’s … 0 PD … 0 INT
LILB Daryl Washington … 63 Tackles … 2.0 Sacks … 7 TFL’s … 10 PD … 2 INT
ROLB Matt Shaughnessy … 29 Tackles … 3.0 Sacks … 6 TFL … 1 PD
The Cardinals most dangerous pass rusher by far though … has been 35 year old John Abraham (6’4” 263 pounds) [33 Tackles … 11.5 Sacks … 4 Forced Fumbles] -- one of the NFL’s most dangerous pass rushers and is certainly a guy Wilson will need to keep an eye out for.
The Cardinals secondary is a gritty, veteran bunch led by CB Patrick Peterson (6’1” 219 Pounds) who has 3 interceptions and has 12 Passes Defensed on the season. He’s a legitimate shut down corner and many opposing QB’s not named Wilson would simply avoid throwing to his side altogether. On the other side, Jerraud Powers (5’10” 187 Pounds) has 56 Tackles and 14 Passes Defensed on the season and has been a physical presence on the field. That said, the 5th year corner has had his issues in the past, struggling to get off blocks and taking too many chances. Last season, opposing QB’s had a rating of 105.0 when going at Powers, so keep an eye on that. The guy that has really been outstanding in pass coverage this year has been RILB Karlos Dansby, who has 3 INT’s on the season and leads the team 17 Passes Defensed (7th most in the NFL). He will make it challenging for TE’s Zach Miller (6’5” 255 Pounds) and Luke Willson (6’5” 252 Pounds) coming across the middle for sure. The Cardinals Safeties are a solid, physical bunch overall. SS Yeremiah Bell (6’0” 205 Pounds) is a 10 year vet who made the Pro Bowl with Miami back in 2009. Bell has 66 Tackles … 10 Passes Defensed … 2 INT’s… 5 Tackles for Loss … and a Sack on his resume thus far this season. All of that said though, it appears the Cardinals secondary could have some holes in it come Sunday. FS Rashad Johnson (5’11” 204 Pounds) made everyone out there cringe several weeks ago when the story came out that he took off his glove on the sideline … and part of his finger stayed in it. How’s THAT for physical play? Johnson has 52 Tackles … 3 INT’s … and 5 Passes Defensed on the season … but he hasn’t practiced all this week due to a high ankle sprain he suffered last week. He’s officially listed as Doubtful, so keep an eye on that. If he’s not able to go, Head Coach Bruce Arians said this week that the team would go with rookie S Tony Jefferson (5’11” 212 Pounds), an UDFA out of Oklahoma, who coming in to college was listed as the #4 Safety prospect in the nation back in 2010 by Rivals.com.
The most significant guy whom this team will certainly miss this week though … is the rookie CB out of Wisconsin Tyrann Mathieu (5’9” 186 Pounds) -- the Honey Badger. Mathieu had been this team’s starting nickel corner and had been so outstanding that some were starting to talk about him being a Pro Bowl consideration and a serious candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. On the season, Mathieu had racked up 65 Tackles ... Passes Defensed … 2 INT’s … had 5 Tackles for Loss … and even had a Sack. I say “had” because the Honey Badger’s season came to an abrupt end after tearing both the ACL and LCL in his left knee in the Rams game 2 weeks ago returning a kickoff. The Honey Badger had been allowing a QB Rating of just 62.0 against him as a slot corner. His injury has really caused a lot of changes in that secondary. Last week in nickel packages, starting RCB Jerraud Powers was moved to nickel cornerback and CB Antoine Cason (6’1” 195 Pounds) entered the game, defending receivers on the outside. Pro FootballFocus had Cason listed in the Bottom 10 as far as cover corners last year when he was with the Chargers and that certainly appeared to be true last week.
Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick lit up this secondary like a Christmas Tree last week to a Jingle Bell Rock tune of 402 yards on 36 of 58 passing (62.1% Completion Rate) … 4 TD’s … and 2 INT’s … for a QB Rating of 91.3 and a Total QBR of 60.0.
And though he’s had another Pro Bowl season, Patrick Peterson was absolutely burned crispy by Fitzpatrick last week. Peterson allowed 9 catches on 10 targets for 146 yards including a TD to Michael Preston late in the 4th Quarter that tied the game … and then turned around and yielded a 33 yard bomb to Nate Washington in Overtime. Against a QB like Fitzpatrick (whom the Legion of Boom held to a QB Rating of just 46.8 in Week 3) … that’s not good.
On the season, Arizona’s secondary has been very opportunistic. Arizona’s 28 Takeaways this year ranks 4th in the NFL behind the Chiefs (35), Seahawks (33), and Buccaneers (29). Their 19 interceptions on the year is 5th Most in the NFL … and they have returned 4 of those Interceptions for TD’s this season (tied for 3rd in the NFL). And Antoine Cason also made his share of plays as well against the Titans, coming up with two interceptions including one returned for a touchdown and a fumble recovery. So, they can be dangerous for sure.
That said, this secondary has also allowed 26 TD Passes against them (Tied for 21st in the league), so they weren’t exactly invulnerable before Mathieu’s injury either.
Seattle’s much maligned Offensive Line has done much better of late protecting Wilson of late. In their first 8 games, the Seahawks Offensive Line allowed 27 Sacks, as injuries to Russell Okung, Breno Giacomini, and Max Unger created a lot of instability due to all the shuffling of personnel. Since Week 9 however ... they have allowed only 9 sacks. Russell Wilson’s QB Rating has gone from 99.0 over the first 8 games … to 113.1 since that time.
It looks like it’s going to be Next Man Up time for the Seahawks Offensive Line on Sunday, as J.R. Sweezy was listed on Thursday’s Injury Report as having a concussion. Pete Carroll told 97.3 FM Friday Morning, "It's not looking too good for him.” Sweezy didn’t end up practicing on Friday and is listed as OUT for this game, so I’d look for it to be the Paul McQuistan and James Carpenter show.
Back in Week 7 in Glendale, Russell Wilson had a field day, completing 18 of 29 passes (62.1% Completion Rate) for 235 Yards … 3 Touchdowns … and 0 Interceptions (good for a QB Rating of 122.1 and a Total QBR of 58.0).
If the Seahawks Offensive Line can keep the Big Birds at bay and provides Russell Wilson with time in the pocket to throw the ball … then I very much like Wilson’s chances AT HOME to surpass those numbers and notch win #24 on his belt.
Bold Prediction …
For what it’s worth, Arizona leads the all-time series against Seattle 15-14, but the Seahawks have won 5 of the last 7 games. Seattle has won the last 3 times the 2 teams have faced one another at Century Link -- the last time a 58-0 whooping on Dec. 9, 2012.
Though Pete Carroll and company say they are going to go with “Strength against Strength” and try to run the ball … I see Russell Wilson as being the one who is going to carry the Seahawks to victory come Sunday. I predict that Tyrann Mathieu’s absence is going to loom large in this one and that Wilson ends up roasting this bird over a spit in front of a sizzling Century Link Field. Seattle has not lost a game at home since Christmas Eve of 2011 … and there’s no way that I see the Grinch dropping a lump of coal in to the Seahawks’ stockings come Sunday. Seattle wins the NFC West … the #1 Seed … and makes an emphatic statement that the right to go to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle this year.
Let’s call it …
Seahawks 31
Cardinals 13
