Comprehensive List of "expert" Picks for NFCCG

For what it's worth: :roll:

http://pickwatch.nflpickwatch.com/p/weekly-picks.html

:0190l: :179422: :179417: :thirishdrinkers:

Thanks for providing that. I find it very interesting that we are picked about 64% of the time against the Niners but if you look at the break out that percentage is much higher at the top of the chart where the most accurate analysts are picking. The lower the % of accuracy the more picks you see going toward the Niners. In other words the ones who are picking based on accuracy over favoritism are picking Seattle. At least that is how I see it.

They included too many Bleacher Report people.

So the accurate pickers have seattle and the ones who probably dont even watch football picked the 9ners

And Mooch, the leader for the seaon, picked the Whiners for obvious reasons.

Forget about his pick.

My Chicago-area high school buddies and I have an annual contest picking against the spread and one of our guys, Stu Feiner is his alias, scored 145-111 for the regular season completely smoking the rest of us.

BTW, the highest score of the so-called experts at CBS sports.com was 130-126 so you can see that Feiner knows his stuff this year.

Stu is picking the Hawks to cover today and the Patriots to beat the spread against the Broncos.

Victory is ours!!

RichNhansom":3im88r18 said:

Thanks for providing that. I find it very interesting that we are picked about 64% of the time against the Niners but if you look at the break out that percentage is much higher at the top of the chart where the most accurate analysts are picking. The lower the % of accuracy the more picks you see going toward the Niners. In other words the ones who are picking based on accuracy over favoritism are picking Seattle. At least that is how I see it.

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By playoffs or by overall season?

If by playoffs the Hawks appear to be over-represented at both ends of the distribution (e.g. both people who have been atypically correct and atypically incorrect are disproportionately picking the Hawks). For overall season, it's rank-ordered by playoffs, so it's a little harder to tell.

theENGLISHseahawk":3im88r18 said:

They included too many Bleacher Report people.

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Perhaps, but it thankfully doesn't really matter, as it doesn't do much to change the overall prediction (Bleacher report is 66% Hawks, compared to 64% overall).

theENGLISHseahawk":7zwb7svr said:

They included too many Bleacher Report people.

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The Bleacher Report people picked Green Bay for the Super Bowl and Seattle to lose in the Div. round.

As a Seahawks fan, I am filled with trepidation. The 49ers are far too good a team to think a win will be handed to us easily, if at all. Trying to be an objective NFL fan, I find it hard to see how the 49ers can come into one of the roughest places to play, against one of the very best teams in the league, after game after game on the road with no breaks, and think they have a shot at this. I'm surprised so many are picking the 49ers for that reason.

Seahawk Sailor":2s2t8d6o said:

Trying to be an objective NFL fan, I find it hard to see how the 49ers can come into one of the roughest places to play, against one of the very best teams in the league, after game after game on the road with no breaks, and think they have a shot at this. I'm surprised so many are picking the 49ers for that reason.

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Agreed with you that the smart pick is the Hawks in this game. That said, I think it's thought to be closer than your or I would expect for two bad reasons, and one possibly good one:

1) The narrative of the 9ers just going anywhere and everywhere and winning has been established. It makes for a good story, although I don't think it really matters that much in terms of predicting this game (or any next game).

2) Since Week 3 the 9ers have been 14-2, and once they knocked off the Panthers (who WERE the "hottest team in the NFL"), the 9ers became the "hottest team in the NFL." This too doesn't really matter IMO (as we learned with the Panthers last week :lol: ).

3) The Hawks, and Russell Wilson in particular, have been struggling for over a month now. They're 3-2 in their last five. Wilson has been bad for five games (particularly given the field position and turnovers the defense has been giving him), and really bad for the last three. He's averaging 116 yards passing a game across the last three. The Cardinals and Bucs games also gave the sense that the Hawks AREN'T unbeatable at home.

So, basically, it's a perfect storm. If I were a Hawks fans, this is the way I'd look at it: The 9ers are thought to be the hottest team in the NFL, and the Hawks have been colder than they've been all season, but the Hawks are still 65% favorites in this game. That ain't bad at all IMO, and still shows a substantial amount of respect (and deserved respect, IMO) given recent trends. These teams are thought to basically be of equal talent level, the 9ers are thought to be hot and the Hawks are thought to be cold, and a strong majority of folks are still picking the Hawks, as they should be, IMO.

Popeye, you seem to have ignored my first two sentences. Y'know, the ones where I said the 49ers are far too good a team to think we'll have a win handed to us, if we win at all.

But let me address some of your statements. "Hot streaks" can be very hard to continue week after week after week. Especially on the road, without a bye since way back in week nine, and without a home game since week sixteen. Especially against a tough division rival who already manhandled you in the same place as the upcoming venue, and almost won in your house as well. Wilson has not been "bad" for the last five games. He's been "safe." And he's done just enough to win, including limiting turnovers. And he's still one of the top quarterbacks over the course of his first two years. With streaks being what they are, don't you think it's about time he had a "bounce-back" game?

Sure, the 'Hawks aren't unbeatable at home, but I'd put their home record the last few years up against any other team's in the league. They're as close to unbeatable here as you'd imagine. I doubt you'd be as nervous about a game in any other stadium.

Seahawk Sailor":2n7ix3g0 said:

Popeye, you seem to have ignored my first two sentences. Y'know, the ones where I said the 49ers are far too good a team to think we'll have a win handed to us, if we win at all.

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Sorry, wasn't ignoring them, just wasn't responding directly to them. In any case, we agree that 1) it's probably wrong to think of this game as a cakewalk for the Hawks, and 2) despite that the Hawks should still be favored in this game.

Seahawk Sailor":2n7ix3g0 said:

But let me address some of your statements. "Hot streaks" can be very hard to continue week after week after week. Especially on the road, without a bye since way back in week nine, and without a home game since week sixteen. Especially against a tough division rival who already manhandled you in the same place as the upcoming venue, and almost won in your house as well.

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Yeah, we agree on this. That's why I included the "This too doesn't really matter IMO (as we learned with the Panthers last week :lol: )." Sorry if that wasn't clear. I was saying that this "hot streak" thing is a media narrative, and one that I don't think is that useful in predicting this game.

Seahawk Sailor":2n7ix3g0 said:

Wilson has not been "bad" for the last five games. He's been "safe." And he's done just enough to win, including limiting turnovers.

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Here is where I think we disagree.

If he was doing just enough to win the Hawks win % wouldn't have substantially decreased in the past five games (from 92% to 60%). Likewise, he has not limited turnovers. He had three INTs in the last 3rd of the season, and six in the first 2/3rds (he's throwing picks at the same rate). Instead, in the last five -- and particularly in the last three -- he has just dramatically underperformed from his season average on completion %, passing yards, rushing yards, and TDs. Wilson hasn't been performing in the last five weeks as he was through the rest of the year. We can subjectively place blame for that on any number of things about Wilson or beyond Wilson, but there's now way to argue around the truth of it.

Seahawk Sailor":2n7ix3g0 said:

And he's still one of the top quarterbacks over the course of his first two years.

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100% agreed. Absolutely. It's just unrelated to what I said.

Seahawk Sailor":2n7ix3g0 said:

With streaks being what they are, don't you think it's about time he had a "bounce-back" game?

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Sure, it's of course absolutely possible. That said, it's opens the door to "streak" logic, which we agree is an improper logic. It also takes "streak" logic and reverses it. If we assume each game as an independent event and that streak logic should have an effect, you're basically arguing that for each new independent event we should expect streaks to stop, not to continue. That seems unlikely (e.g. teams that have won are more likely to continue to win than teams that haven't won; Lebron James is more likely to play well because he has played well than Popeye Jones was likely to play well because he hadn't played well, etc.).

This of course doesn't mean that Wilson won't have a great game (heck, even a masterful game) as he very well could, but arguing that Wilson is LIKELY to have a good game because he has been playing poorly doesn't make much sense to me. (Note also that here you're saying he's "due" for a "bounce back" game right after arguing that he has simply been playing "safe" and there isn't anything to actually "bounce back" from; it logically has to be one or the other).

Seahawk Sailor":2n7ix3g0 said:

Sure, the 'Hawks aren't unbeatable at home, but I'd put their home record the last few years up against any other team's in the league. They're as close to unbeatable here as you'd imagine. I doubt you'd be as nervous about a game in any other stadium.

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Again, wasn't debating this or arguing this. I was simply saying that the there have been cracks in the Hawks "invincibility" at home of late, whereas before there were no cracks. OF COURSE the CLink is an incredibly hard venue to visit. I never debated that at all, nor would I ever deny that. My point was simply that the CLinks reputation has gone from "impossible" to "very, very, very hard" (as was of course destined to happen eventually). That's not an insult and is in no way meant to minimize how hard of a venue the CLink is to play in.

TBH, seems like (save for Wilson on a single point), you've read a lot of disagreement into my post that wasn't there, or in the least wasn't even remotely intended to be read into it. All good though. Good luck to your guys today!

And after all that they still haven't proven that they can win in Seattle.

loafoftatupu":4dge38a9 said:

And after all that they still haven't proven that they can win in Seattle.

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Uh, yeah? The 49ers have lost two games in a row in Seattle. That's verifiable fact. Don't know what I said that implied that wasn't true. And to say it three times in three consecutive posts, I think the Hawks are rightly the favorites in this game.

In any case, seems like the touchiness factor is building as game time approaches (as is reasonable, and as we should expect), so I'll sign off.

Best of luck to the Hawks, and to a great, hard fought, injury free game. :th2thumbs:

onanygivensunday":1hnabi5y said:

My Chicago-area high school buddies and I have an annual contest picking against the spread and one of our guys, Stu Feiner is his alias, scored 145-111 for the regular season completely smoking the rest of us.

BTW, the highest score of the so-called experts at CBS sports.com was 130-126 so you can see that Feiner knows his stuff this year.

Stu is picking the Hawks to cover today and the Patriots to beat the spread against the Broncos.

Victory is ours!!

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Feiner had 111 losses too, even if he had the highest winning percentage :lol:

Looks like we are actually favored more than people realize. Get away from Espn and its a different story. Vegas and the advanced stat sites seem to favor us and expect us to cover big.

It's reassuring that Matt Miller of Bleacher Report is picking the Niners.

"Worst pick in the entire 2012 draft"

Pin point analysis there.

Why does BR exist again?

austinslater25":3o0e0br7 said:

Looks like we are actually favored more than people realize. Get away from Espn and its a different story. Vegas and the advanced stat sites seem to favor us and expect us to cover big.

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This.