Super Bowl Key to Victory: Time of Possession

So I posted this in the "Dear Mr. Bevell" thread. But I attempted to put enough time and effort into this post I think it's worthy of a new topic since I feel it's time to start going through some strategy and analysis for this game after the bye week. Here's the original post:

Initially I was thinking if we score over 24 points we will win. The more I think about, it seems like we might need more, or we will need to do very well in our time of possession.

If you noticed, even though Denver scored only 26 against the Patriots, I honestly believe their game plan did not involve scoring a ton of points. I think their game plan was to simply control and dictate the game.

The Broncos had 2 drives over 7 minutes in the game resulting in a score:

2nd quarter: 7 minutes 1 seconds Touchdown drive
3rd quarter: 7 minutes 8 seconds Touchdown drive
4th quarter: 5 minutes 23 seconds Field Goal.

That's nearly 20 minutes in just 3 drives!!! Almost 1/3 the game gone on 3 drives!

I think their game plan was to take control of the game offensively with long, high percentage drives that ate up the clock. They did not want to get into a high scoring shootout with the Patriots. They trusted their defense to make enough stops to win if they could limit their time on the field. And it worked brilliantly, they completely shut down the Patriots never letting Brady get in a groove to win the game (they also benefited from Brady missing some very important throws).

Time of possession:

Broncos: 35 minutes 44 seconds
Patriots: 24 minutes 16 seconds


For comparison in our last game some of our drives time of possession were:

1-2nd quarters: 5 minutes 54 seconds Punt...
2nd quarter: 4 minutes 16 seconds Field Goal
3rd quarter: 2 minutes 15 seconds Touch Down
3rd quarter: 2 minutes 34 seconds Field Goal
3rd-4th quarter: 4 minute 2 seconds Touch Down
4th quarter: 4 minute Field Goal

In comparison to the Broncos having 3 drives for close to 20 minutes, in our last game our longest drive appears to have resulted in a punt. If you add our longest drive of the game to our 5 scoring drives you have 6 drives totaling about 22 minutes 30 seconds.

So the Broncos had the ball nearly as long as we did in this specific example with 1/2 the number of drives.

Seahawks: 31 minutes 28 seconds
49ers: 28 minutes 32 seconds

One could argue that if the Seahawks lost the time of possession we could have easily lost against the 49ers since it was a very close game.


So what's the point of all this time analysis?

Well, I believe this will be a key statistic for the winning team.

Against the Saints the Seahawks actually lost the time of possession:

Seahawks: 29 minutes 30 seconds
Saints: 30 minutes 30 seconds

What about the Broncos in their Divisional match up?

Broncos: 35 minutes 27 seconds
Chargers: 24 minutes 33 seconds


According to this stat site:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/av ... -net-of-ot

The Broncos for the regular season were ranked 10th in time of possession with an average of 30 minutes 38 seconds.

The Seahawks were seemingly not too far behind ranked 17th averaging 29 minutes 57 seconds.

I was very surprised when I first learned the Seahawks were losing the time of possession battle on average this season. For such a run heavy offense, with a dominating defense, it's really quite inexcusable that we can't hold onto the ball for more than 30 minutes on average.

Last season (2012) both the Seahawks and Broncos average time of possession were identical at 31 minutes 24 second which was tied for 4th.


People have been seemingly very surprised that the Broncos have scored less in the playoffs, but their defense has also "stepped up" allowing only 16 and 17 points in the last two games.

But did the Broncos defense really step up? Or could their success be due to the Broncos holding onto the ball for an average of over 35 minutes 30 seconds the past two games?


The Patriots had 0 turnovers against the Broncos and still only had the ball for 24 minutes 16 seconds.

The Chargers had 0 turnovers against the Broncos, while the Broncos had two turnovers, a fumble (onside kick for fumble?) and interception. Yet even with being +2 in the turnover margin the Chargers time of possession was a pathetic 24 minutes 33 seconds.


Conclusion:

The Broncos have recognized that their defense is not up too par, no matter how good their offense is they can lose games with their defense. BUT, they also decided that if they focus their entire game plan around time of possession they can win quite easily if it works. The Broncos offense is perfect for slow and steady first downs. They are capable of very long drives of around 7 minutes on a consistent basis against most teams.

If the Broncos can keep the Seahawks time of possession to under 25 minutes like they have done to their last two opponents, they should be able to win very easily. Of course this will be more difficult against the Seahawks Defense, however it may be quite easy to stuff our Offense which could balance this out. Bevell will need to call a very good game with high percentage first downs to counter this. Our team will need better offensive execution than what we've seen lately. We need to look like the team scoring 50 points last season if we want this to be an easy win. Russel will need to be in peak form which I have faith he will be.

And we better have a fully comprehensive and effective high percentage offensive plan with or without Harvin, when Harvin went down against the Saints we looked quite clueless but perhaps it was just the weather. In this game we need to be prepared or even expecting Harvin to get knocked out of the game the first time he touches the ball. It's not necessarily that I think that will happen, but we need to be ready for it and have an amazing game plan with or without him.

You are absolutely correct about this. The offensive focus in both games has been a balanced attack that takes time off the clock. Now, where the Broncos have semi-faltered is they have settled for too many FGs and that's why the point totals have been lower than our usual. But it's still been effective because it gives the opponent fewer opportunities with the ball, which is a good thing because our defense (while noticeably improved) can be had. In fact, our offense has only punted once in 2 games, along with 2 turnovers and a missed FG....every other possession either ended in a score or ended the game. So the ball control offense along with stopping the run early has been a good formula for the Broncos so far and I would expect them to try this in the Super Bowl.

They also had 3 drives totalling over 13 minutes that resulted in just 6 points total.

It's a risky strategy, especially against a defense that is stout in the red zone and gives up very few points.
If we can have 2-3 long TD drives of 5+ minutes, Denver will give up on that strategy very quickly.

The_Z_Man":4ei2t983 said:

Conclusion... if the hawks offense does their normal routine of 3 and out, 3 and out... they are going to get their asses HANDED to them.

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Normal routine? You mean the team with the 8th highest scoring offense in the league?

The ignorance is astounding.

I wrote about this last week, in two regular season games the Chargers averaged 38 minutes per game and something like 130 yards running per game.

Then they go in to the divisional game with an injured Ryan Mathews and still make it hard on the Broncos, scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter.

And even if Denver takes an early lead, there is no team better equipped to come back and beat their ass than the Seattle Seahawks.

On thing impacting our offensive TOP and efficiency is the quality of the defense we were facing. This alone created a bit of a mis-match compared to what the Denver Mannings were able to accomplish.

I wish them the best of luck controlling the time of possession throughout the game. They will be struggling just to get points on most of their drives. Best offense ever be damned, we're one of the best defenses ever. We're not Scrub Diego or Screw England's defense.

The Broncos know they can't pull that crap on us. Look for them to try, and fail, to establish the run early, then just try to go balls to the wall for points.

The_Z_Man":35wv65hn said:

pocketprotector":35wv65hn said:

The ignorance is astounding.

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Argue with my opinion all you want, but actually bring something to the argument and stay in bounds please.

Seahawks are in the top half of the league in 3 and out % -- #15 to be exact, and in the latter part of the season they are top 10 in the NFL in that category.

Can't do that against the Broncos.

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Maybe that's because they faced ridiculous defenses on an almost weekly basis in the 2nd half of the season.