The Only stats that Matter: Toxic Differential by Billick

On Brock and Danny Billick said "Seattle is 2nd to last in pass attempts, but Top 5 in Yards per Attempt and Top 3 in Turnovers, this is by design."

He believes that Russell Wilson can put up big stats if he needs to, but he hasn't had to do so.

TOXIC DIFFERENTIAL

"The statistic was created by Super Bowl winning coach Brian Billick while he was offensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings. He's quoted as saying "It’s not merely good enough to avoid turning the ball over; you need to generate big offensive plays as well."

The holy grail is having a double positive, in other words a team is winning the turnover differential AND the explosive play differential. Over the last 10+ seasons, a majority of teams that have won the Super Bowl finished the regular season in the Top 10 for Toxic Differential."

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2013/


Brian Billick article from 11/29/2012 (not 2013)

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/toxi ... ick-112812


Brian Billick article from 11/13/2013

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... hia-eagles

Here's a strange little factoid I discovered a couple months back: Every team that led in Toxic Differential in the first week of November has won the Super Bowl even if they no longer lead by the end of the season. Wierd, meaningless stat, but this season that team was our very own Seattle Seahawks. GO HAWKS!

Brian billick has picked denver to win the superbowl and has literally picked seattle to lose all 19 games played this season.

He just said today 24-17 Hawks and I believe said that last night on NFL...or did I miss something?

Saw this, as you start going back in years it seems like an excellent predictor for who ends up in the playoffs.

The Hawks advantage in Big Play Differential over the Broncos is quite amazing.

I find it funny that people are focusing on the last 5-6 games which are played against different type of defensive teams than Denver.

I wish people would focus on 2nd half against Tampa, Atlanta 2nd half, Chicago game second half, 1st Saints game.

Whenever RW has been asked to carry the offense he does. Give me one game where he was given a period of time to run it and he did. I am not counting Arizona because we were conservative throughout and most of all their secondary is way better than anything we will see during the Superbowl.

Axx":q3t9wkjo said:

Brian billick has picked denver to win the superbowl and has literally picked seattle to lose all 19 games played this season.

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I don't know if that's fact but I tend to agree with you on Billick. He seems to be down on the Seahawks more often than not.

He's like a yo yo. Up and down all the time. What he says today likely could change tomorrow.

mikeak":1uu6roxe said:

I find it funny that people are focusing on the last 5-6 games which are played against different type of defensive teams than Denver.

I wish people would focus on 2nd half against Tampa, Atlanta 2nd half, Chicago game second half, 1st Saints game.

Whenever RW has been asked to carry the offense he does. Give me one game where he was given a period of time to run it and he did. I am not counting Arizona because we were conservative throughout and most of all their secondary is way better than anything we will see during the Superbowl.

Click to expand...

Interesting that if the D doesnt' give up that last drive, the story from that game could have been "even on a poor day, Wilson found a way to win"

Most of the pundits (or at least those that played or coached) are struggling to nail down their view of a winner, as the two teams have some many reasons to be chosen.

Well, the score is the only stat that matters, but interesting regardless.