Bill Barnwell picks Seattle (with GREAT analysis)

Smelly McUgly

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The co-MVP of Grantland (along with Robert Mays) with some wonderful analysis. Check this out for people whose confidence has been shot by some of the Media Week stuff coming out.

http://grantland.com/features/the-offic ... l-preview/

Great stuff all over, but let's focus on what he says about Russell Wilson:

The 49ers’ front seven beat up Seattle when it tried to throw in the NFC Championship Game, with a few big plays sustaining the Seahawks’ attack. That really came down to the incredible work done by their linebackers, especially in pursuit of Wilson. You saw what Aldon Smith could do on the first play, when he chased Wilson out to the edge, brought him down, and stripped him of the football in the process. Ahmad Brooks knocked Wilson down three times while serving as San Francisco’s primary spy on Wilson during play-action, and the 49ers knocked Wilson down 10 times amid just 29 dropbacks.

Denver just doesn’t have that kind of pass rush or athleticism at linebacker. Danny Trevathan is a useful player, and Shaun Phillips can both get to Wilson on a rush and spy him on one side of the field, but what they really need is, well, Von Miller. He would be the perfect asset against Wilson, a player who can keep up with every step Wilson makes while finishing plays on the edge. Robert Ayers just isn’t that guy. As a result, I think this will be Wilson’s best game of the postseason; he might not have as many big plays as he had against the 49ers, but I think you’ll see him have his way outside the pocket, creating throwing lanes and improvising for first downs.
 

rjdriver

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Great article and analysis. Grantland has become the jewel of ESPN.com IMO.
 

chet380

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Let's hope "Billy Zima" doesn't kiss-of-death the Hawks by picking them.
 

Timberhawk

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That was an impressive read. I think his final score seems about right although I'd probably add seven more points to both teams final scores.

Go Hawks!!
 

dopeboy206

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I love how it's great when they puck us but they're horrible when they go against us like they can't have a mind of their own.
 

James in PA

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Amazingly most of the NFL dot com analysts picked us too. What's going on here?
 

Hasselbeck

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chet380":3kprkz7p said:
Let's hope "Billy Zima" doesn't kiss-of-death the Hawks by picking them.

Would be shocked if he doesn't pick Peyton to try to "jinx" him
 
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Smelly McUgly

Smelly McUgly

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dopeboy206":1u5bnxpx said:
I love how it's great when they puck us but they're horrible when they go against us like they can't have a mind of their own.

Um...I am a fan of Barnwell anyway. I would have been bummed if he picked the Broncos and backed up his prediction by showing his work like this.

You are trying to characterize a whole board's worth of people as having a singular mind. Some people get fired up about being picked against, some people don't care if people pick us at all, etc., etc. You're being reductive in order to make an untrue point.
 

drcool

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Gotta say Barnwell is probably the best football writer out there right now. He actually provides real information and real insight. Love reading his stuff.
 

samwize77

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Very nice write up, there is somebody out there that looks at stats and thinks for themselves about the numbers.
 

nanomoz

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Everyone that likes cogent analysis should read this. Thanks for sharing.
 

mikeak

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I don't understand this comment about not as many big plays. I thought RW sucked in the NFCCG (sarcasm)

I said awhile ago that if Dummervilles agent did what he was paid to do and Von Miller was in the game then I would be more worried

RW will run all over them
 

HawKnPeppa

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dopeboy206":1vmrm9fx said:
I love how it's great when they puck us but they're horrible when they go against us like they can't have a mind of their own.

Did you even read the OP before flippantly bashing to post? I fully understand his reasoning. It's the same as reading a review of a dirt or dual-sport motorcycle from a magazine that employs testers that have mostly tarmac-riding experience vs ones that employ people with serious off-road credentials. It's good to hear from people who know their stuff, and it's evident when they do.
 

dopeboy206

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HawKnPeppa":28cwzaif said:
dopeboy206":28cwzaif said:
I love how it's great when they puck us but they're horrible when they go against us like they can't have a mind of their own.

Did you even read the OP before flippantly bashing to post? I fully understand his reasoning. It's the same as reading a review of a dirt or dual-sport motorcycle from a magazine that employs testers that have mostly tarmac-riding experience vs ones that employ people with serious off-road credentials. It's good to hear from people who know their stuff, and it's evident when they do.

Yeah I did. So?
 

Sarlacc83

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Barnwell deserves a raise - an insightful article that comes to its conclusion not by tricks, but by having a real argument within the paper in order to make the final numbers.
 

Sarlacc83

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volsunghawk":1bbn5gl1 said:
Speaking of in-depth analysis, here is the Football Outsiders SB48 preview:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-p ... ii-preview

I won't spoil the ending.

I liked that the threw in the Jacksonville reference in there. I haven't seen anyone bring that up, and I've been hesitant to do so myself, even though Jacksonville was only down by 2 points in the 2nd quarter of that game and weren't out of it until the 4th. (Which is Seattle's big quarter, too.)
 

Missing_Clink

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Man Barnwell has churned out like 1 million words of articles this week it seems. Hard workin man
 
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