Seems everyone sort of wants their own thread these days. I havent said much of late and will try to summarize most of my thoughts here.
As I mentioned elsewhere, outside of deciding to semi-retire, this week has been a wash for me. Cant pretend to work til this game is played. So to keep my mind busy, my anxiety low, and thoughts of my job I spent hours and hours watching games this week, All 22 of the important stuff, Condensed of things that seemed less important, and full versions when I wanted to relive the moments.
So, my non-bold, trying to be realistic predictions and guesswork on tomorrow.
1) After a string of playing top defenses and defenses with lots of speed at LB, tomorrow will be the first time in a while that Wilson will have opportunities to make positive yardage running the ball. I dont see that the Broncos can effectively spy Wilson with anyone, and I dont know that they can afford to with Harvin playing. I see Wilson with 30 to 50 yards rushing, divided equally between designed runs and off of scrambles.
2) Harvin wont be the MVP, but he probably should be. I was surprised how much we keyed on him in his half vs. the Saints. I doubt that will continue except in individual series. But his effect is obvious. Go back to the Saints game, watch the end run to Harvin. Now, watch the next play. He doesnt get it. But compare where the safety lines up. Hes now moved to counter the Harvin threat. Denver doesnt have the defense to just line up and play their game. Honestly, with the injuries theyve had, I dont know what "their game" is other than "allow less than 35 points so Manning will win it for us". Harvin will get maybe 6 catches and 2 carries, but will move their safeties all over the place, and possibly DRC, though I doubt that. I dont expect, but would like to see Harvin line up in the backfield a couple of times.
3) Our WRs arent world class. Lets admit it. But they have their strengths and I think there is little chance the #3 and #4 CBs for Denver are going to be able to cover Baldwin and Kearse if Wilson scrambles. Baldwin will lead our receivers in yardage I believe. Earlier in the season Denver seemed to use a lot of man to man..lately they use 8 man zones because of injury. Baldwin in particulary is going to find the seams there, and our TEs could be key too.
4) Manning.. Manning, Manning, Manning. Hes the best. Or one of. He is very smart and even self aware that he throws some ducks. And yet..and yet.. he is a prideful man. I dont think he will be content to just take the underneath crosses all day. Some have said he has nothing to prove, but I sense this season he does. With all the records he broke, all the TDs he threw.. how hollow will it feel if he doesnt just win, but win with his signature throws? And for all the things he says right in public, he does care about his records. ANd thats not a bad thing. I just think that his pride, which has fueled his career may morph into hubris here. Thomas and Maxwell are going to get Ints, I dont think he will really challenge Sherman. Manning is going to get his yards..but the match up gets even worse in the Red Zone.
5) The key to the match, for me, is our LB. They arent the flashy part of our D. Manning will take some chances deep as I said, but will mostly throw those middle field crossers that he has relied on of late. Our D line is a mismatch but the quick throw will mitigate that. So its our Linebackers that could well decide the game. if they make the middle of the field a no go zone for Welker and Thomas, the Broncos have nothing left except Moreno..who in my opinion isnt nearly as good as his stats say..he too benefits from playing with Manning.
So..their elite, maybe once in history offense against our elite D.. they will score 19.. 4 FGs and a TD.
So..our better than average offense against their talent poor but hot of late D.. I think we can get 3 tds and a FG. 24-19 Seahawks. I think a defender will get the MVP, and it will be one of those games where it wouldnt be obvious who to give it to on Offense.. Lynch will get his 100 but I dont think he'll get any long long runs. The Broncos are good enough to choose one thing to take away , and that will be Lynch through 3 quarters.
As I mentioned elsewhere, outside of deciding to semi-retire, this week has been a wash for me. Cant pretend to work til this game is played. So to keep my mind busy, my anxiety low, and thoughts of my job I spent hours and hours watching games this week, All 22 of the important stuff, Condensed of things that seemed less important, and full versions when I wanted to relive the moments.
So, my non-bold, trying to be realistic predictions and guesswork on tomorrow.
1) After a string of playing top defenses and defenses with lots of speed at LB, tomorrow will be the first time in a while that Wilson will have opportunities to make positive yardage running the ball. I dont see that the Broncos can effectively spy Wilson with anyone, and I dont know that they can afford to with Harvin playing. I see Wilson with 30 to 50 yards rushing, divided equally between designed runs and off of scrambles.
2) Harvin wont be the MVP, but he probably should be. I was surprised how much we keyed on him in his half vs. the Saints. I doubt that will continue except in individual series. But his effect is obvious. Go back to the Saints game, watch the end run to Harvin. Now, watch the next play. He doesnt get it. But compare where the safety lines up. Hes now moved to counter the Harvin threat. Denver doesnt have the defense to just line up and play their game. Honestly, with the injuries theyve had, I dont know what "their game" is other than "allow less than 35 points so Manning will win it for us". Harvin will get maybe 6 catches and 2 carries, but will move their safeties all over the place, and possibly DRC, though I doubt that. I dont expect, but would like to see Harvin line up in the backfield a couple of times.
3) Our WRs arent world class. Lets admit it. But they have their strengths and I think there is little chance the #3 and #4 CBs for Denver are going to be able to cover Baldwin and Kearse if Wilson scrambles. Baldwin will lead our receivers in yardage I believe. Earlier in the season Denver seemed to use a lot of man to man..lately they use 8 man zones because of injury. Baldwin in particulary is going to find the seams there, and our TEs could be key too.
4) Manning.. Manning, Manning, Manning. Hes the best. Or one of. He is very smart and even self aware that he throws some ducks. And yet..and yet.. he is a prideful man. I dont think he will be content to just take the underneath crosses all day. Some have said he has nothing to prove, but I sense this season he does. With all the records he broke, all the TDs he threw.. how hollow will it feel if he doesnt just win, but win with his signature throws? And for all the things he says right in public, he does care about his records. ANd thats not a bad thing. I just think that his pride, which has fueled his career may morph into hubris here. Thomas and Maxwell are going to get Ints, I dont think he will really challenge Sherman. Manning is going to get his yards..but the match up gets even worse in the Red Zone.
5) The key to the match, for me, is our LB. They arent the flashy part of our D. Manning will take some chances deep as I said, but will mostly throw those middle field crossers that he has relied on of late. Our D line is a mismatch but the quick throw will mitigate that. So its our Linebackers that could well decide the game. if they make the middle of the field a no go zone for Welker and Thomas, the Broncos have nothing left except Moreno..who in my opinion isnt nearly as good as his stats say..he too benefits from playing with Manning.
So..their elite, maybe once in history offense against our elite D.. they will score 19.. 4 FGs and a TD.
So..our better than average offense against their talent poor but hot of late D.. I think we can get 3 tds and a FG. 24-19 Seahawks. I think a defender will get the MVP, and it will be one of those games where it wouldnt be obvious who to give it to on Offense.. Lynch will get his 100 but I dont think he'll get any long long runs. The Broncos are good enough to choose one thing to take away , and that will be Lynch through 3 quarters.
