Pandion Haliaetus
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(Again, posted via smartphone so don't get mad if there are many grammatical errors)
In the 2013, per DVOA:
The SEA O faced a top 15 D: 13/18 times
The DEN O faced a top 15 D: 4/18 times
SEA O vs top 10 D: 8/18 times
DEN O vs top 10 D: 4 18 times
SEA O vs top 5 D: 3/18 times
DEN D vs a top 5 D: 0/18 times
Specifically,and certainly I'm cherry picking, those top 10 Ds, Denver faced were
#7 BAL (wk 1 @ Den)
#6 NYG (wk 2 @ NYG)
#9 KC (twice)
The Broncos got to face a Ravens D that not only was going through a transitory phase and growing pains from losing leaders Ray Lewis and Ed Reed...the NFL forced the Superbowl Champions to travel to Denver in their first game of the season.
In week 2, the Broncos traveled to New York and the Giants kept the game close at Half-Time down only 13-10 until baby Manning threw 4 interceptions. This was also a point in the season where the Giants was playing some bad football.
In the 2 games vs the Chiefs, whom btw way are the third youngest team in the NFL who were facing the 5th oldest team in the Broncos. The Chiefs were a paper tiger and had the easiest SOS in the NFL. In both games, the Chiefs played the Broncos tough and didn't allow themselves to get blown out like some other teams.
The point is the Denver Broncos haven't faced a Defense quite like Seattle's and the thing is if the Seahawks D could have been much better statistically if you removed the block punts, the blocked FGs, the turnovers that led to easy points, the games where the Seahawks put their B squad in, and had a more efficient offense that could consistently sustain longer drives keeping the defense off the field at times. I'm talking about a Defense that could have kept opponents under 12.0 points per game in a year where teams were breaking scoring records on a weekly basis.
As much as the Broncos Offense is Legit, so is the Seahawks Defense.
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The SEA D faced a top 15 O: 9/18 times
The DEN D faced a top 15 O: 10/18 times
SEA D vs a top 10 O: 6/18 times
DEN D vs a top 10 O: 6/18 times
SEA D vs a top 5 O: 2/18 times
DEN D vs a top 5 O: 6/18 times
Those top 6 offenses Denver faced were PHI, NE x2, SD x3,
DEN faced a PHI team led by Michael Vick. Enough said.
And they got Jekyl and Hyde SD three times and for what it was worth they also like DEN face only a fraction of top defense while pulverizing the worst defenses in the league. The telling point here is the Seahawks scored more points than the Charger while facing better defenses
Then there is New England, who actually faced a lot of legit defenses, but also had to scrape out a lot of close games. However, their team offensively is stiched together by experience and coaching philosphy rather than elite talent.
Seahawks Offense ranked 7th in the NFL per DVOA. If you would have gave them a healthy O-Line and a healthy Rice and Harvin for the whole season, you are looking at an offense that probably would have ranked in the Top 5 in DVOA as well as scored closer to 500 points, imo, than 400 points. Yet through all that struggle they still ended up as one of the best offenses in the NFL.
And as of late, the Seahawks O-Line has been healthy and rolling and getting better familarity with each new week of practice.
The Seahawks won't get Rice back but Harvin will suit up and after what the Saints did to him, he's going to be all about that action, boss.
But here's the kicker, out of all the top offenses the Broncos have faced, they haven't faced one quite like Seattle's.
Sure the Broncos have faced dual threat QBs but Wilson is unique in the sense that'll scramble to set up more explosive pass plays while wearing down defenses in the process. Wilson is smart, dedicated, as much as he is extraordinary because he doesn't care about the stat-line, he does what it takes to win even if its just managing and trying to run out the clock.
The Broncos have faced great RBs this season like McCoy, Mathews, and Charles but they haven't faced a dog quite like Marshawn Lynch because he's one of a kind. And right now he's full Beast Mode and pissed off.
And here's the controversy even without Harvin and Rice, Seahawks WR unit in terms of EFFECIENCY PER TARGET have better WR Corps than the Eagles, Chargers, and Patriots.
There is a group think the Seahawks Offense will get shutdown by Denver's D but the Broncos aren't prepared for the physicality or the explosive style the Seahawks bring.
---------------------------
DVOA MATCHUP:
DEN O #1 vs SEA D #1
Denver's Offense more than less has overachieved exploiting the worst defenses in the NFL
Seattle's Defense is already league best in a list of categories and it could be much better statistically in a vacuum considering non defensive circumstances... the #1 Defense hasn't allowed an opponent to score over 20 points on them since Week 9.
SEA O #7 vs DEN D #15
Seattle O might not be dialed in but its definitely on the brink of an offensive explosion. Remember, the Broncos mighty O scored 50 points vs bottom feeder Ds while the Seahawks put up 46 against much better Defenses. Add in Lynch going Super Saiyan Beast Mode, Harvin rejoining the cause with a chip on his shoulder and they type of Defense Russell Wilson can exploit... it looks good for Seattle.
Denver may stop Lynch but they won't be able to stop Wilson as well. And remember Seattle as its own arsenal of legit Weapons: Harvin, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse, Miller, Luke Willson, Turbin, Michael Robinson, and Wilson's Legs. All can make plays and move the ball
Denver's D is also lacking in depth, their best chance is to do what most team have done and force Wilson to take over the game but they are lacking some of their best play-makers defensively.
10 of their 41 sack production is currently sitting on I.R... as well as 6 of their 17 interception production. Broncos D faced 613 Pass Attempts.
We are a talking about facing a current D that had 31 sacks in 603 attempts.
11 INTs in 607 attempts.
That production, certainly doesn't have the Seahawks Offense shaking in their conservative play-calling boots.
Last but not least could be the real key to the game again ranking per DVOA:
SEA #5 ST vs DEN #22 ST
Honestly, the only weakness in Seattle's game was Kick-Off return game. But I'm sure if you take the averages of current Kick Off Returners, Doug Baldwin and Percy Harvin, you'll likely get a ST unit that is probably #1 in the NFL. Seahawks have some of the best coverage and ST tacklers in the NFL.
DEN's ST unit mostly consists of Matt Praeter's leg but take him out of Denver and into the dense Northeast air, he's a little more human and the Seahawks should be able to expliot a poor coverage unit if the Seahawks can force the Broncos to punt and Praeter is not booming them out of the endzone.
----------------------
All in all... the Seahawks and Denver is Great Match-Up and I hope the Referees allow both teams to play their game because both teams kind of push the limits of the rules and what is allowed. Both teams play on that edge.
I don't have a prediction other than at best I think the Seahawks Defense will keep the Broncos Offense to 23-24 points and at worst 33-34 points.
Its up to the Seahawks Offense and STs to put up enough points to beat that. And I believe the Seahawks can easily put up the needed 35+ if they are all rolling on the same page and every player is maxing out their performance potential.
But if I had to pinpoint and label it put me in the Kenny Easley camp of prediction. 8)
In the 2013, per DVOA:
The SEA O faced a top 15 D: 13/18 times
The DEN O faced a top 15 D: 4/18 times
SEA O vs top 10 D: 8/18 times
DEN O vs top 10 D: 4 18 times
SEA O vs top 5 D: 3/18 times
DEN D vs a top 5 D: 0/18 times
Specifically,and certainly I'm cherry picking, those top 10 Ds, Denver faced were
#7 BAL (wk 1 @ Den)
#6 NYG (wk 2 @ NYG)
#9 KC (twice)
The Broncos got to face a Ravens D that not only was going through a transitory phase and growing pains from losing leaders Ray Lewis and Ed Reed...the NFL forced the Superbowl Champions to travel to Denver in their first game of the season.
In week 2, the Broncos traveled to New York and the Giants kept the game close at Half-Time down only 13-10 until baby Manning threw 4 interceptions. This was also a point in the season where the Giants was playing some bad football.
In the 2 games vs the Chiefs, whom btw way are the third youngest team in the NFL who were facing the 5th oldest team in the Broncos. The Chiefs were a paper tiger and had the easiest SOS in the NFL. In both games, the Chiefs played the Broncos tough and didn't allow themselves to get blown out like some other teams.
The point is the Denver Broncos haven't faced a Defense quite like Seattle's and the thing is if the Seahawks D could have been much better statistically if you removed the block punts, the blocked FGs, the turnovers that led to easy points, the games where the Seahawks put their B squad in, and had a more efficient offense that could consistently sustain longer drives keeping the defense off the field at times. I'm talking about a Defense that could have kept opponents under 12.0 points per game in a year where teams were breaking scoring records on a weekly basis.
As much as the Broncos Offense is Legit, so is the Seahawks Defense.
--------------------------
The SEA D faced a top 15 O: 9/18 times
The DEN D faced a top 15 O: 10/18 times
SEA D vs a top 10 O: 6/18 times
DEN D vs a top 10 O: 6/18 times
SEA D vs a top 5 O: 2/18 times
DEN D vs a top 5 O: 6/18 times
Those top 6 offenses Denver faced were PHI, NE x2, SD x3,
DEN faced a PHI team led by Michael Vick. Enough said.
And they got Jekyl and Hyde SD three times and for what it was worth they also like DEN face only a fraction of top defense while pulverizing the worst defenses in the league. The telling point here is the Seahawks scored more points than the Charger while facing better defenses
Then there is New England, who actually faced a lot of legit defenses, but also had to scrape out a lot of close games. However, their team offensively is stiched together by experience and coaching philosphy rather than elite talent.
Seahawks Offense ranked 7th in the NFL per DVOA. If you would have gave them a healthy O-Line and a healthy Rice and Harvin for the whole season, you are looking at an offense that probably would have ranked in the Top 5 in DVOA as well as scored closer to 500 points, imo, than 400 points. Yet through all that struggle they still ended up as one of the best offenses in the NFL.
And as of late, the Seahawks O-Line has been healthy and rolling and getting better familarity with each new week of practice.
The Seahawks won't get Rice back but Harvin will suit up and after what the Saints did to him, he's going to be all about that action, boss.
But here's the kicker, out of all the top offenses the Broncos have faced, they haven't faced one quite like Seattle's.
Sure the Broncos have faced dual threat QBs but Wilson is unique in the sense that'll scramble to set up more explosive pass plays while wearing down defenses in the process. Wilson is smart, dedicated, as much as he is extraordinary because he doesn't care about the stat-line, he does what it takes to win even if its just managing and trying to run out the clock.
The Broncos have faced great RBs this season like McCoy, Mathews, and Charles but they haven't faced a dog quite like Marshawn Lynch because he's one of a kind. And right now he's full Beast Mode and pissed off.
And here's the controversy even without Harvin and Rice, Seahawks WR unit in terms of EFFECIENCY PER TARGET have better WR Corps than the Eagles, Chargers, and Patriots.
There is a group think the Seahawks Offense will get shutdown by Denver's D but the Broncos aren't prepared for the physicality or the explosive style the Seahawks bring.
---------------------------
DVOA MATCHUP:
DEN O #1 vs SEA D #1
Denver's Offense more than less has overachieved exploiting the worst defenses in the NFL
Seattle's Defense is already league best in a list of categories and it could be much better statistically in a vacuum considering non defensive circumstances... the #1 Defense hasn't allowed an opponent to score over 20 points on them since Week 9.
SEA O #7 vs DEN D #15
Seattle O might not be dialed in but its definitely on the brink of an offensive explosion. Remember, the Broncos mighty O scored 50 points vs bottom feeder Ds while the Seahawks put up 46 against much better Defenses. Add in Lynch going Super Saiyan Beast Mode, Harvin rejoining the cause with a chip on his shoulder and they type of Defense Russell Wilson can exploit... it looks good for Seattle.
Denver may stop Lynch but they won't be able to stop Wilson as well. And remember Seattle as its own arsenal of legit Weapons: Harvin, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse, Miller, Luke Willson, Turbin, Michael Robinson, and Wilson's Legs. All can make plays and move the ball
Denver's D is also lacking in depth, their best chance is to do what most team have done and force Wilson to take over the game but they are lacking some of their best play-makers defensively.
10 of their 41 sack production is currently sitting on I.R... as well as 6 of their 17 interception production. Broncos D faced 613 Pass Attempts.
We are a talking about facing a current D that had 31 sacks in 603 attempts.
11 INTs in 607 attempts.
That production, certainly doesn't have the Seahawks Offense shaking in their conservative play-calling boots.
Last but not least could be the real key to the game again ranking per DVOA:
SEA #5 ST vs DEN #22 ST
Honestly, the only weakness in Seattle's game was Kick-Off return game. But I'm sure if you take the averages of current Kick Off Returners, Doug Baldwin and Percy Harvin, you'll likely get a ST unit that is probably #1 in the NFL. Seahawks have some of the best coverage and ST tacklers in the NFL.
DEN's ST unit mostly consists of Matt Praeter's leg but take him out of Denver and into the dense Northeast air, he's a little more human and the Seahawks should be able to expliot a poor coverage unit if the Seahawks can force the Broncos to punt and Praeter is not booming them out of the endzone.
----------------------
All in all... the Seahawks and Denver is Great Match-Up and I hope the Referees allow both teams to play their game because both teams kind of push the limits of the rules and what is allowed. Both teams play on that edge.
I don't have a prediction other than at best I think the Seahawks Defense will keep the Broncos Offense to 23-24 points and at worst 33-34 points.
Its up to the Seahawks Offense and STs to put up enough points to beat that. And I believe the Seahawks can easily put up the needed 35+ if they are all rolling on the same page and every player is maxing out their performance potential.
But if I had to pinpoint and label it put me in the Kenny Easley camp of prediction. 8)
