What kind of compensatory picks are we looking at?

seabowl · Mar 12, 2014

With all of the losses of players can anyone shed some light on compensatory picks we could get back?

McGruff · Mar 12, 2014

Well first of all, it won't be until next off season that we get compensated.

Second of all, not all players signed count. Of the ones signed recently Tate, Giacomini, Maragos, McDonald and Schofield (if signed) count. Bryant and Clemons do not. Thurmond will when/if he signs elsewhere.

Finally, we won't know until free agency ends. If we end up signing more than we lose, we get nothing.

sutz · Mar 12, 2014

The formula for this is more arcane and secretive than the QBR formula. Nobody knows. Personally, I think the Commish just sort of pulls numbers out of a hat.

Coug_Hawk08 · Mar 12, 2014

sutz":ftnax5s2 said:
The formula for this is more arcane and secretive than the QBR formula. Nobody knows. Personally, I think the Commish just sort of pulls numbers out of a hat.

Probably with the help of Dilfer. Someone has to hold the hat.

TDOTSEAHAWK · Mar 12, 2014

We will probably get like a 5th for Tate and then like 3 7ths.

oasis · Mar 12, 2014

TDOTSEAHAWK":k9g54ihu said:
We will probably get like a 5th for Tate and then like 3 7ths.

Which for us is a gold mine :twisted:

FargoHawk · Mar 12, 2014

There is a formula and some internet guy is usually pretty good about predicting teams picks.

Erebus · Mar 12, 2014

I don't know the formula, but I'm pretty sure it's based on the amount of money our free agents get from other teams compared to the amount of money we give free agents from other teams.

Clemons and Bryant don't count because we cut them. Only players with expired contracts count.

kearly · Mar 12, 2014

As Austin Powers would say, all sixes and sevens.

lukerguy · Mar 12, 2014

The process for awarding compensatory picks is rather bewildering, but here they are for the process-oriented among you:

1. Lost players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs do not qualify.

2. Lost players that were picked up during the season the year before do not qualify.

3. Signed players that are released before midseason do not qualify.

4. Players earning low minimum salaries do not qualify.

5. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

We will not receive comps for Bryant or Clemons because they were released. We will not receive compensation for OBS because he was acquired a year ago. Had McDaniel or Bennett walked we wouldn't have received anything for them. We will have compensatory consideration for Tate, McDonald, Breno, Browner, and Thurmond ( and whoever else leaves that's been on the team for at least 2 yrs). If we sign someone like hatcher, Allen, peppers, our Tate deal gets wiped. My guess is we get like 2 6s and 3 7s.

Seafan · Mar 13, 2014

Maragos, Browner, Tate, Breno, Thurmond, McDonald. Haushka possibly.

Attyla the Hawk · Mar 13, 2014

I had posted a synopsis on the process on the pro draft forum:

Attyla the Hawk":3jtkmp1w said:
Picks aren't allotted for individual players. Overall, the formula has never been publicized. However some outsiders have been able to get the math very close to correct.

First and foremost, you have a few global rules:

There are only 32 compensatory picks awarded in a single year. No more. No less.

No team can have more than 4 compensatory picks.

Veterans of 10+ years lost cannot grade higher than 5th round comp grade.

While not a known global rule -- no team who has signed more UFAs than they lost has ever been awarded a comp pick. Comp picks have always been net loss of 0 players or more.

In general, the formula goes:

Avg. yearly salary * playing time adjustment * postseason honors adj. = qualifying round value

The average salary is by far the biggest factor in determining the round value.

In terms of how the selections are awarded overall it goes:

1. Determine qualifying round for all signed free agents lost and gained
2. Gained qualifiers cancel out the highest rated loss of the same round or less.

So for example. If you lose three UFAs

(a) graded a 3rd round pick
(b) graded a fifth round pick
(c) graded a 7th round pick

and you signed

(d) graded a 4th
(e) graded a 7th

The cancellation would work D cancels B, E cancels C. The team would be left with a 3rd round pick.

This is the formula where there is a net loss. If we added a (f) gain graded a 7th round qualifier then the rules change.

The team would be left with a single 7th round selection. And that 7th round comp pick would come after all 7th round comp picks awarded to teams where a net loss occurred. If you gain what you lose, you only get a 7th and the worst of the batch at that. Although the order appears to be set by the highest grade loss.

Not all years have 32 comp picks awarded by UFA losses. In those years, there are as many comp picks added at the end of the 7th round to equal 32. Those picks are awarded to teams as if there were an 8th round in the draft.

I should also add, that lukerguy is correct, you do not qualify if you were signed the year before. So far, here's the expectation based on the expected comps for 2014's draft

1. Tate (6.25M) 4th round qualifier
2. McDonald (4m) 6th round qualifier
3. Maragos (1.3m) 7th round qualifier
4. Giacomini (??) Probable 7th

The cut off projections are estimated for 2015 to be the following:

1m to 3.4m avg = 7th
3.5 to 4.8m avg = 6th
4.9 to 6m avg = 5th
6.1 to 8.5 avg = 4th
8.6+ = 3rd

These are rough. Tate could be a 5th rounder as he's right on the edge. Firmly though a 5th round qualifier if so and likely near the top of the heap. He could be close enough that if he plays significant snaps and gets some postseason honors -- he could set the cutoff.

McGruff · Mar 13, 2014

Have we got a final word yet on Schofield? Is he a Giant or not?

NorthDallas40oz · Mar 13, 2014

Also, the max number of comp picks that a team can be awarded in a given draft is 4.

Attyla the Hawk · Mar 13, 2014

McGruff":5un3k20b said:
Have we got a final word yet on Schofield? Is he a Giant or not?

No word yet. Although he doesn't factor in to the comp pick equation having just been signed last year.

RolandDeschain · Mar 13, 2014

sutz":180gs2br said:
The formula for this is more arcane and secretive than the QBR formula. Nobody knows. Personally, I think the Commish just sort of pulls numbers out of a hat.

Possibly, but I doubt it. I'm sure they keep it secret so organizations can't game the system to improve their comp picks.

Hawk-A-Loogie · Mar 13, 2014

Why don't Red Bryant and Clemens count?

norcalhawk · Mar 13, 2014

Hawk-A-Loogie":2uhew7b9 said:
Why don't Red Bryant and Clemens count?

players who have been released don't count. Just unrestricted FAs

Bigpumpkin · Mar 13, 2014

sutz":1n74pc8x said:
The formula for this is more arcane and secretive than the QBR formula. Nobody knows. Personally, I think the Commish just sort of pulls numbers out of a hat.

...and here I thought that you were going to say that he pulled those numbers out of a certain body part! :roll:

chrispy · Mar 13, 2014

With Browner's suspension, assuming he gets a low salary and a relatively high signing bonus (because he'll lose 8 game checks I think) will that factor into the comp pick? ... or the low salary will mean the comp pick is negated?

What kind of compensatory picks are we looking at?

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