Hawks46":c1sanaw3 said:
ZagHawk":c1sanaw3 said:
What are better odds? a Super Bowl Losing team returning the Super Bowl? or the winning team returning?
I think the odds favor the SB winning team returning.
The Superbowl loser's curse is for real; there were only 3 teams in the last 12 years that even made the playoffs after losing the SB: the 2006 Seahawks, last year's Niners, and I honestly don't remember the other one. But usually, the team that loses the SB doesn't even make the playoffs the next year.
Well, the super bowl loser hasn't made it back to the super bowl since 1972. Super bowl winner hasn't repeated since '03/'04 Patriots. In that regard it's better to be a winner than loser.
However, interestingly enough no super bowl winner since those Patriots has won a playoff game the following season. Either missed playoffs or lost in wildcard/divisional game.
There were different reasons each time, but the general gist is the same -- a team loses a bit of hunger and/or key talent following a Lombardi. It is extremely difficult to repeat in general, but apparently its pretty difficult just winning a playoff game.
Going back to the start of the salary cap (1994), here are the fates of the last twenty super bowl winners' following season:
'13 Ravens missed playoffs
'12 Giants missed playoffs
'11 Packers lost divisional round
'10 Saints lost wildcard
'09 Steelers - missed playoffs
'08 Giants lost divisional round
'07 Colts - lost divisional round
'06 Steelers - missed playoffs
'05 Patriots - won wildcard, lost divisional
'04 Patriots - WON SUPER BOWL
'03 Bucs - did not make playoffs
'02 Rams - did not make playoffs.
'01 Ravens won wildcard game lost divisional.
'00 Rams - lost wildcard game
'99 Broncos - missed playoffs
'98 Broncos - WON SUPER BOWL
'97 Packers lost super bowl.
'96 Cowboys won one playoff game.
'95 49ers lost divisional playoff game.
'94 Cowboys won divisional, lost conference championship
In the last twenty years, these are the percentages:
Repeat as super bowl champs: 10%
Win two or more playoff games: 5%
Win one playoff game: 15%
Win zero playoff games: 35%
Miss playoffs: 35%
If you want to extend back a few more years to 1989 two include the 49ers and Cowboys repeating as champs, you repeat percentage only goes up to 16%. The '91 Giants missed playoffs and '92 Redskins only one won playoff game.
Historic all time repeat percentage back to SB 1, is 15%.
Those are the numbers, without bias. 70% of champs have not made a playoff dent in the last twenty seasons.
So the trend has been, repeat as SB champs or win one playoff game max. Only one team actually won more than 1 playoff game ('97 Packers). In twenty years, that is the streak.
The NFC on paper looks to be weaker this year than last. Outside the NFC West, I'd say the top teams got worse (Panthers, Saints) or stayed the same (Packers). There might be some upstarts in the NFC South (Bucs) but that won't be enough to make a serious post season dent. Falcons might bounce back but don't think they are a top team anymore. NFC East is an afterthought.
I may be biased but I see the 49ers winning the division. More hunger + 2nd place schedule will be enough to get it done.
Also, Seattle has tougher home games this year than last, and they'll waste their HFA on teams like the Giants, Raiders. So their schedule will be a lot more balanced than last year when they had maybe 2 to 4 tough games to prepare for at home (division plus Saints). This year will be division plus Packers, Broncos. On the road for Kansas City, San Diego, Philly, Washington and Carolina.
The big wildcard is the actual schedule, and how teams change this year.
If they make it back to the super bowl and win it, with everything I've mentioned thus far it will be more impressive than this year, hands down.
ray:
