I wrote this for a betting website last month. It was to be part of a series focusing on select teams this season. They decided to go another direction so I never submitted it. I'm updating it now with the Vegas odds.
THE BETTING MAN'S GUIDE TO THE 2014 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
First off, why should you read a betting strategy guide that only looks at the Seattle Seahawks? Since the emergence of the Legion of Boom in 2011, the Seattle Seahawks have been one of the most consistent teams against the spread in the NFL, going 31-15-2 over that span. They have been the best or tied with the best team ATS for the past three years. A closer look reveals a team that is a sure fire bet to beat the spread at home, but only 50-50 on the road...until last year, when they went 6-2 on the road ATS. This oddly, was the same year they only went 5-3 at home. A closer look at the games they've won and lost, the betting lines and the perceptions that create those betting lines tell us why. Going into 2013, the perception of the Hawks was that the Legion of Boom was unbeatable at home and that they were a team that could not win on the road. These misconceptions caused the line to shift, making the point spread greater for the Hawks at home and for their opponents on the road. This season, being defending Super Bowl Champions should have the effect of pushing the line even further in the Hawks favor at home, but the impression still exists on all media outlets and amongst fans that the Hawks are not a good road team, despite their 6-2 record both real and ATS in 2013. Remember, the spread isn't what Vegas thinks one team is likely to beat the other by, it's what Vegas thinks will bring them in the most money based on the average fans perceptions of each team. So there is an opportunity here for the smart bettor to take advantage of a betting populace that doesn't really understand why the Seahawks are successful and how they can be beaten.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the upcoming season:
This is meant as a template for your betting strategy. Injuries will take their toll (more of which I'll touch on later), teams that were not good one year will be surprising this year and vice versa. So use this as a baseline and adjust your betting strategy accordingly.
The early part of the season is where the best money can be made betting for the Seahawks the beat the spread, despite the fact that early on they'll be more highly favored simply because of their Super Bowl championship. Mid season is where they will falter and late season, when the perception is they aren't the same team they were in 2013, is when they'll start beating the spread again. Here's how I see it panning out:
Week 1 vs Green Bay. Rematch of the infamous Wail Mary match that saw Rodgers get sacked 8 times in the first half and the Pack only mount one serious scoring drive. These are not the same two teams this time around. Green Bay has no defense to keep Seattle in check. The acquisition of an aging Julius Peppers is not going to shore up what Football Outsiders deemed the 2nd worst defense in the NFL. Meanwhile, the team that sacked Rodgers 8 times in 2012 developed into a legitimate pass rushing defense last season with the addition of Bennett and Avril. Green Bay is a national fan favorite and therefore they tend to attract a lot of betting money which gets reflected in the spread in their favor. That's why they do so poorly against it each year. Expect the hype from this game to counter any effect Seattle's SB championship might garner. If the Hawks are favored by less than 6, take the Hawks.
Hawks favored by 5. Take the money and run.
Week 2 @ San Diego. Whatever points gained for being the champs will be lost on the Seahawks perceived weakness on the road. They'll still be favored heavily, however. Don't let that worry you. San Diego was rated by Football Outsiders as having the only defense worse than Green Bays. Seattle should be able to move the ball, their defense will keep the Chargers in check and the Hawks will continue their recent trend of beating the spread on the road.
Hawks only favored by 2.5. Easy money.
Week 3 vs Denver. Super Bowl XLVIII was a classic example of how the betting line doesn't reflect what the oddsmakers think is the likely outcome, it reflects what odds Vegas thinks will bring them in the most money. It started with the Hawks favored and quickly moved to favoring Denver when the media hypefest over Peyton Manning and the most prolific offense in NFL history started the betting money to roll Denvers way. Few bettors read Cold, Hard Football Facts or study DVOA analysis from Football Outsiders. They're impressed by raw stats. CHFF understood that Seattle was the more balanced team, with the greatest Big Play/Turnover ratio differential - otherwise known as Toxic Differential - in the NFL. Denver was a one trick pony. History showed that the best offenses in the NFL don't win Super Bowls, the best defenses coupled with a good offense wins in a rout. Their analysis forecast a Seattle rout and the stats held true. This time around, the game will favor Seattle. It'll be in Seattle, where the 12th man helps the defense. The Broncos will be motivated, certainly, but if motivation to win the Super Bowl didn't make any difference, motivation to avenge the Super Bowl won't help them in Seattle, where I'd take any point spread Vegas puts out and tack on 14 more and still bet Seattle. Don't let the Broncos defensive acquisitions fool you. Seattle won't put up as many points this time around, but they'll still have another defensive gem, especially at home. Denver simply does not match up well against Seattle.
Think about this: Hawks favored by 3.5 is like saying on a neutral field it's an even matchup. KA-CHING!!!!
Week 4 Bye. Take the Bye, they never lose.
Week 5 @ Washington. The Skins should be an improved team offensively and defensively this year. But their defense, which was ranked in the bottom 10 by Football Outsiders last season, won't suddenly become a top 10 defense, even with their offseason acquisitions. Seattle, for reasons not known to man, seem to be unbeatable ATS on Monday Night Football, going 6-1-1 in their last 8 contests. That said, if RGIII is healthy, mobile QB's have had success vs the Hawks. Andrew Luck caused the Hawks to lose on the road last season despite not having a decent defense to back him up. It was the most points scored against Seattle all season. If the Hawks are favored by more than 4, I'd take a pass on this one. If they're favored by 7 or more, I'd take a long look at betting for the Skins.
Hawks by 4.5 Pass on this one.
Week 6 vs Dallas. Only Green Bay and San Diego had worse defense than Dallas did last season, but even they had a better pass rush. Take Seattle, whatever the spread.
Which happens to be 7.5 We'll beat that spread easily.
Week 7 @ St. Louis. By this point, Seattle's offense will have faced the 3 worst defenses of last year in their first 5 games. It will have given people the impression that this year the Hawks are unstoppable. Fans will be thinking their woeful pass protection issues are a thing of the past. St. Louis will remind people of just how awful that offensive line was at protecting Russell Wilson last season. The Rams offense is too predictable under Marty Schottenheimer to ever become feared, but their young corps of wide receivers showed improvement as the season progressed. You've got a west coast team starting at 10 AM which historically has meant they start slow on defense. Add to that Seattle will be heavily favored going into this game and I don't like their chances against the spread. Your best bet will probably be St. Louis.
Seattle favored by 6. Not a good bet. Bet Rams to beat the spread. Better yet, wait till the game gets closer and see if you can eke a few more points out of Vegas because the Hawks will have started out so hot.
Week 8 @ Carolina. Carolina was 7-1 at home last year. Their only loss? Seattle. Another 10 AM game, this time on the east coast. I've not seen Vegas take that into account when calculating point spreads, but it will negatively impact Seattle's chances. They barely beat the spread last year in Carolina. If they're favored by more than 3.5, take the Panthers. If the Panthers are favored, take the Hawks, otherwise, this one is too close to call. Take the under.
Save your money, don't bet on this one.
Week 9 vs Oakland. Seattle should be heavily favored this game. This is exactly the kind of game the Hawks tend to beat the spread on. Sure, last year Tennessee was a fluke, but overall, this is one of the safest bets all year, no matter what the points. Take Seattle.
Having said that, 14.5 pts makes me cringe. Still, if it were MY money I'd stand by my words, but it's YOURS.
Week 10 vs New York Giants. Seattle shut the Giants out last year on the road. The Giants have a top 10 defense, but Eli was having a bad year. Seattle will probably be heavily favored and rightly so. This should be another safe bet.
Seahawks by 10. At home, take the Hawks.
Week 11 @ Kansas City. Last year, KC was one of the most over-rated teams in the NFL. They have an excellent defense, but the easy schedule played more into their success. Still, good teams are supposed to beat bad teams. At this point, how you bet depends on how KC is perceived. Barring upsets, they'll be hovering around 5-3 or 4-4. Homefield advantage will give them about a half a point boost. Still, Seattle will probably be favored. This is where Seattle's perceived weakness on the road may help with the point spread however. If Seattle is favored by 5 or more, take a pass on this one. But if they're favored by under 5, this is a good time to put the money on Seattle to beat the spread. KC's offense will struggle vs. the Legion of Boom. Turnovers should heavily favor Seattle.
Seattle only favored by 2.5 This is one of those games where Seattle wins you money. Bet Hawks.
Week 12 vs Arizona. The betting line will move in the Cardinals favor because of their late season win in Seattle last year. However, the loss of Dansby could cause Arizona to take a step back this year. I think they'll be a playoff contender. If they are, this game will be too tight to risk money on. Bet the under. If the Cardinals have struggled, however, then the Hawks are a safe bet to take. I expect two elite defenses to battle it out for a playoff berth and give a slight edge to Seattle at home.
Surprisingly, Seattle favored by 10.5. I'd stay away from this one until the season pans out and we see what the Cardinals have going on this year.
Week 13 @ San Francisco. Thanksgiving Day. With only a short week to prepare for a road game, the travelling team generally only wins about one in five. After getting beat up by Arizona the week before, Seattle is almost assured of a loss in San Francisco on Turkey Day. FUN FACT: Since Marshawn Lynch joined Seattle, whoever rushed for more yards between Gore and Lynch saw their team win every Niner-Hawk match. Gore has been declining steadily for two years now. I expect him to drop off precipitously in 2014. Nonetheless, I think the Niners win this game due to the reasons I listed above. Bet Niners.
Niners favored by 2.5. Short week, Thursday on the road. Bet Niners.
Week 14 @ Philadelphia. This one is the toughest call of the season. Factors favoring Philly: Seattle struggles ATS vs mobile QB's. Philly's offense is something the Legion of Boom hasn't gone up against. It's in Philly. Factor favoring Seattle: Philadelphia has a mediocre defense. Or, as Richard Sherman would say, me-di-o-cre. I think those factors mean that this will most likely be the highest scoring game of the season for Seattle. Don't bet either say, bet the over.
Seattle favored by 1. Why? Because even Vegas doesn't have a clue how this matchup will pan out.
Week 15 vs San Francisco. Kaepernick looked like a deer in the headlights his first two games in Seattle. In the NFCCG, he looked like he'd finally found his confidence. Now he knows not to be overconfident and throw deep at Richard Sherman. So there should be no blow outs this time around. However, by this point, Seattle will have been struggling for some time against tough defenses and a brutal stretch of road games. This will bring down the point spread, but it should still favor Seattle at home. San Francisco is a team that does great ATS, especially on the road. Seattle will win this one, but beating the spread is a risky bet. Unless injury is a factor, stay away from this one.
Seattle favored by 3.5. Far too close a game and way too far down the road to call this one.
Week 16 @ Arizona. If Seattle has dominated up to this point, the spread will be exaggeratedly tilted in their favor. Should Arizona prove that last years run at a playoff berth was the real deal, I'd take the Cardinals. That said, I think by this point Seattle has struggled against a slew of really good defenses, had a shoot out against Philly and is not looking at all like the team they were to start off the season. The perception will be that they're beatable. If Arizona is the real deal, then maybe they will be, but the points will be tilted too far in Arizona's favor most likely and this will be an excellent time to take Seattle and any points you can get. If the Cardinals have regressed and the spread favors Seattle, then by all means take Seattle, because the perception they are a weak road team will still be a factor they'll not be favored by enough.
Seahawks favored by 3.5 Vegas obviously agrees that the loss of Dansby means AZ isn't going to improve or even remain as good as they were. I'd wait and see before betting this game.
Week 17 vs St. Louis. By this point the predictable Schottenheimer offense will have no chance on the road vs Seattle with the 12th man backing up the Legion of Boom. The playoffs will most definitely be on the line for Seattle and unlikely for the Rams. Take Seattle.
If we're favored by 6 in St. Louis, I can't imagine how much we'd be favored by had Vegas set the line for this game.
Injuries. They're a part of the game. Some injuries affect a team more than others and some injuries affect the betting line more (or less) than they should. With that in mind, let's consider the impact injuries will have on Seattle for some of their key players.
Russell Wilson. If Wilson goes down, Tavaris Jackson steps in. In 2011, Jackson led Seattle to a 7-9 record. With the exact same team in 2012, Wilson led Seattle to within seconds of the NFCCG and an 11-5 regular season record. If Wilson goes down, so does Seattle. That said, this is still an elite defense that should keep the Hawks close in every game. The line will drop dramatically away from Seattle and towards their opponents. If that opponent has a top 10 defense of its own, stay away from betting on Seattle. If they don't, there's easy money to be made betting on the Hawks. Under Tavaris Jackson, the Hawks were 10-5-1 ATS. Don't expect that when Vegas and the rest of America knows this is a playoff contender, unlike in 2011. However, they'll still be good enough to handle teams that can't put pressure on Jackson.
Marshawn Lynch. Denver shut Lynch down and still got shellacked. Unlike the loss of Wilson, losing Lynch doesn't necessarily knock Seattle out of the playoffs. They still have Robert Turbin and Christian Michael, though, until the latter can learn to pass block, he's not going to see a lot of playing time regardless. What losing Lynch DOES do is make Seattle a little more one dimentional. Wilson is quite capable of carrying the team on his shoulders, but the play action pass will suffer and teams won't respect the run anymore. This will result in a lot more closer games. Take that into account when referring to the above template to decide if the Hawks are a good bet or not.
Percy Harvin. Losing Percy Harvin in the preseason won't affect the betting line at all and will have no impact on what I've written above. Seattle lost Harvin all of last season and still went 13-3. Had he not played in the Super Bowl, Seattle still routs Denver, just by 7-10 pts less. Losing Harvin midway through the season, however, could have a dramatic impact on the betting line and offer the shrewd bettor an opportunity to make some good money. Why? Because Seattle faces a lot of weak defenses early on in the season. Expect their offense to start off clicking. Many will remember how the Hawks struggled offensively at times last year and attribute their sudden offensive productivity to the impact of Harvin. The reality is that the Hawks faced more elite defenses last year than any team in the NFL and that's why they struggled offensively. If by struggling, you mean scored in the 20's. Against average or weak defenses, their offense did just fine. If Harvin goes down mid season the line will shift by at least a point or two to reflect the impression that the Seahawks will begin to struggle again. Harvin is an elite playmaker and he WILL tilt the playing field, but Seattle will still be Seattle without him and elite defenses will still slow them down while average defenses will not. Baldwin, Kearse and Rice will still be out there. Take advantage of the line shifting away from the Hawks to bet in their favor.
