FBO rushing by # of backs

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/2013-rushing-success-number-backs

Interesting analysis. The Seahawks had the largest gap by DVOA in rushing sets between 1 RB and 2+ RB's. Lynch only was a 9.7% DVOA and Lynch + FB was -15.1% DVOA.

It's almost like there's a correlation between run success and not telegraphing to the defense that you're guaranteed to run on that particular down.

What a fascinating concept.

(My smartassery is absolutely not directed at you, Everyday; nor at Football Outsiders, whom I love.)

RolandDeschain":12bh0okw said:

It's almost like there's a correlation between run success and not telegraphing to the defense that you're guaranteed to run on that particular down.

What a fascinating concept.

(My smartassery is absolutely not directed at you, Everyday; nor at Football Outsiders, whom I love.)

Click to expand...

Well according to the article, the entire leagues DVOA difference is 5.0% between a single back and multiple backs.

This is a potentially significant finding. The differences in y/a and dvoa are so large that it *seemingly* implies that the Hawks should substantially decrease their use of a fullback, but before jumping to such a conclusion, deeper analysis should be done.

For example, I wonder how much is explained by 3rd or 4th and very short; or when they running out the clock with a lead late in the game and everyone is pretty sure they are going to run it.

Seattle had 4.3 y/a with one RB, whch decreased to 3.7 y/a with a fullback.

Taking an example with hypothetical numbers, suppose with a fullback that 20% of the plays were 3rd or 4th and very short, and that regular plays with a FB averaged 4.4 y/a and short yardage averaged 1 y/a. Then .8(4.4) + (.2)(1.0) = 3.7 y/a with a fullback...again, those are hypothtical numbers to illustrate a potential effect.

It would be interesting to filter out these situations and then see the effect of the fullback, doing this analysis on only first and 10 situations, for example.

Also, the Seahawks running game is best at the start of a game and in the first quarter when they often run with a 2-back set, which implies using a fullback is beneficial.

There are also additional benefits from a fullback. If the defense is really biased to defend the run, then it might make your play action more effective, or the fullback might be a more effective blocker on passing plays.

...can't wait for this year's almanac to be released.

Personally I want to see more of Alvin Bailey lining up as a TE. I would be interested to see what kind of YPA they managed out of that formation because if I recall correctly almost every time they did it, it was very successful.

EverydayImRusselin":2ou2dcfx said:

Well according to the article, the entire leagues DVOA difference is 5.0% between a single back and multiple backs.

Click to expand...

That's not what the -5.0% number on the yellow line at the bottom means at all, that's just the average rating for RB1 performance; has nothing to do with the difference or correlation between single and multiple-back sets.

The Seahawks had the largest differential in performance between single-back sets and multiple-back sets in the entire NFL. I think a good part of the reason behind this is our simplistic offensive formations, (simplistic defensive formations work in our favor, but it's a different story on offense, IMO) but I could be wrong if any of the resident experts want to chime in.

Look, if you're ahead and everybody in the stadium knows you're going to run, taking the FB off of the field isn't going to help you at all. You're going to find really tough sledding against any team that hasn't thrown in the towel in that circumstance. If I had Marshawn Lynch. the best defense in the NFL, and the lead, I would bring a fullback on the field and keep pounding. If that makes me an idiot and unimaginative, so be it.

There are benefits to using a FB that go beyond their per-play effectiveness.

"Circle of toughness." Seattle, San Francisco and Baltimore have yet to abandon the fullback whereas most of the rest of the NFL has. These three teams share something in common in terms of identity and in terms of their ability to wear out opponents on both sides of the ball. This is an instance where using analytics can be short-sighted.