Stat Predictor

The off-season is a bit slow at the moment. Training Camp starts in a few weeks though! Predict each offensive players regular season stats for 2014. Feedback is welcome as well!

Russell Wilson:

Passing Yards: 4004
Completion Percentage: 66.2%
Touchdowns: 37
Interceptions: 6
QB Rating: 116.3



Marshawn Lynch:

ATT: 254
YDS: 1095
AVG: 4.3
TD: 10
REC: 35

Christine Michael:

ATT: 116
YDS: 565
AVG: 4.8
TD: 4
REC: 18
LNG: 57



Doug Baldwin:

YDS: 812
AVG: 15.4
TD: 8
REC: 75
LNG: 68

Percy Harvin:

YDS: 932
AVG: 14.7
TD: 10
REC: 84
LNG: 80

Paul Richardson:

YDS: 514
AVG: 15.1
TD: 5
REC: 34
LNG: 99

Jermaine Kearse:

YDS: 311
AVG: 15.4
TD: 3
REC: 31
LNG: 45



Zach Miller:

YDS: 428
AVG: 11.2
TD: 3
REC: 38
LNG: 41

Luke Willson:

YDS: 372
AVG: 13.1
TD: 4
REC: 30
LNG: 35

Anthony McCoy:

YDS: 291
AVG: 16.2
TD: 1
REC: 18
LNG: 73



5th Wildcard receiver:
(S. Rice, K. Norwood, R. Lockette etc.)

Kevin Norwood:

YDS: 344
AVG: 13.8
TD: 3
REC: 25
LNG: 37

Sorry, very little chance of Wilson throwing for 4000 yards. We'll still be running around 60 plays a game, if we're leading in most like we should be over 50% of those are going to be rushing plays.

I'd say even 3500 would be pushing it. Maybe 4000 is possible, but he'd have a lot fewer rushing yards if that were the case. I could see 28-30 TDs.

Outside of a major injury, I can't see both of the rookies outperforming Kearse. Harvin's presence will help him and Baldwin, and there simply won't be much playing time available for the rookies.

SacHawk2.0":3vhlr86f said:

Sorry, very little chance of Wilson throwing for 4000 yards. We'll still be running around 60 plays a game, if we're leading in most like we should be over 50% of those are going to be rushing plays.

I'd say even 3500 would be pushing it. Maybe 4000 is possible, but he'd have a lot fewer rushing yards if that were the case. I could see 28-30 TDs.

Click to expand...

If you take his YPA from last year he'd need ~486 pass attempts to hit 4000 yards. That's a pretty big increase. He did take 40+ sacks, and scrambled a lot, so maybe he could increase to 425-450 attempts without really altering the game plan. That would give him 35-3700 yds. Now if we were to shift the offense just a little bit from 49/51 pass/run to 51/49 pass/run, I could see him getting near 450-500 pass attempts and putting up the numbers shown above.

f he were to do that though, he would absolutely shut up all of the game manager comments. That would be a truly epic season from him.

In 2013, Seattle scored a total of 45 TDs... which included 14 rushing TDs, 27 passing TDs, 4 defensive TDs and no TDs by special teams.

In 2014, I predict that we'll score a total of 52 TDs... that will include 13 rushing TDs (Marshawn 10, Michael/Turbin 3), 32 passing TDs, 5 defensive TDs and 2 TDs by special teams (Harvin kickoff returns for TD).

Add in Hauschka's 35 FGs (33 last year) made and no missed extra points (one last year), I predict we''ll score a total of 469 points, which averages to 29.3 points/game. In 2013, we averaged 26.1 points/game... an improvement of a FG per game. A scoring average of 29.3 points/game in 2013 would have finished #2 overall in the league behind the Donkeys.

My prediction for Russell's passing stats are 3700 yards total, 300/450 (66.7%) for 32 TDs and only 6 INTs... averaging 28 attempts and 231 yards/game.

Last year he compiled.................................. 3357 yards total, 257/407 (63.1%) for 26 TDs and with 9 INTs.... averaging 25 attempts and 210 yards/game.

Last year Russell was sacked 44 times. I'm predicting Pete's focus on the o-line will result in him being sacked only 34 times in 2014.

I like Percy picking up Tate's 5 receiving TDs but adding 2 more to it, in addition to Percy rushing the ball for 3 TDs... which will give Harvin a total of 10 TDs in 2014.

And I like Luke Willson to score 4 TDs this year (last year, 1)... and for Paul Richardson to pickup Rice's 3 receiving TDs and adding one to it for a total of 4 in his rookie year.

On the defensive side of the ball, I expect Seattle will continue to be the #1 team in the league for points against... staying in the 14-point region... I'll say 13.8 points/game.

First, I love that Richardson gets a 99-yard TD. That highlight would likely make #1 on next off-season's Top 100 plays.

Second, I appreciate this prediction idea, but I gotta check some math. Let me know if I botch any figures.

skater18000":pemwktpk said:

Russell Wilson:
Passing Yards: 4004
Completion Percentage: 66.2%
Touchdowns: 37
Interceptions: 6
QB Rating: 116.3

Click to expand...

For RW to hit that rating, with that yardage and completion %, he would have to go 297/449. That's up 115%/110%, with an AVG of 8.9, up 110%. Those aren't crazy numbers, historically, and with a healthy Harvin and improved o-line play, perhaps attainable.

Just for fun speculation: If RW maintains his current AVG of 8.1, getting 4004 YDS would mean he has to throw it 494 times, up 122% from last year. If he stays with his average attempts, 400, then at 66.2%, that would put his completions at 265, (up only 8 from last season, so reasonable) but his AVG would go up 123% to 10 (5th best all-time, and highest in 14 years) and his rating would be 123.6 (1st all-time, besting Aaron Rodgers' mark of 122.5).

The RB numbers look fine, mathematically speaking.

skater18000":pemwktpk said:

Doug Baldwin:
YDS: 812
AVG: 15.4
REC: 75

Click to expand...

A 15.4 avg on 75 catches = 1,155 yards. Given the yds & rec numbers above, his avg would be 10.83.

skater18000":pemwktpk said:

Percy Harvin:
YDS: 932
AVG: 14.7
REC: 84

Click to expand...

A 14.7 avg on 84 catches = 1,235 yards. With the above numbers, his avg would be 11.1

skater18000":pemwktpk said:

Jermaine Kearse:
YDS: 311
AVG: 15.4
REC: 31

Click to expand...

A 15.4 avg on 31 catches = 477 yds. With the numbers provided, his avg would be 10.

skater18000":pemwktpk said:

Luke Willson:
YDS: 372
AVG: 13.1
REC: 30

Click to expand...

A 13.1 avg on 30 catches = 393 yds. With the numbers above, his avg would be 12.4.


The numbers for Richardson, Miller, McCoy, and Norwood compute.

If Wilson finishes with a 116 passer rating, I wouldn't rule out 4k. Any offense with a QB in that kind of zone is not going to punt often, which means longer drives and more plays per game. And at a 116 rating, Wilson would be having one of the better QB performances ever, so I could see Pete playing the hot hand some too.

I think Harvin will finish with 700 yard receiving and maybe 200 yards rushing. And he'll still be the most valuable member of our offense other than Wilson. Nobody on the team, not even Lynch, opens up the offense like Harvin does.

An

SacHawk2.0":2oyp7kuv said:

Sorry, very little chance of Wilson throwing for 4000 yards. We'll still be running around 60 plays a game, if we're leading in most like we should be over 50% of those are going to be rushing plays.

I'd say even 3500 would be pushing it. Maybe 4000 is possible, but he'd have a lot fewer rushing yards if that were the case. I could see 28-30 TDs.

Click to expand...

Not necessarily, let's say our schedule is more competitive than it was the year before, teams bring their A game vs the champs, whatever of the means, its very plausible.

Now let's cap Wilson's throw attempts at 425 max.

Let's say with a better offensive line he's able to complete 65% of his passes, and with better WRs his Y/C improves from 13.1 to 14.0.

65% of 425 = 277 x 14.0 = 3878
66% of 425 = 281 x 14.0 = 3934

And it wouldn't be out of the question especially if Harvin and Richardson stay healthy plus Baldwin, Kearse, and Willson taking another step up in their games.

Wilson's Comp% have been 64.1% completing 252/393 passes. And 63.1 last year completing 257/407.

Yet his Yard per Attempt improved from 7.9 to 8.2.
And the Yard per Catch improved from 12.4 to 13.1.

Like you said maybe he doesn't pass for 4000 but if everything goes right
and teams put the Seahawks offense in a position where Wilson might need to throw it 20-30 times more than last year. But his accuracy and effenciency takes another step up.... he definately can throw for 4000 yards.

Pandion Haliaetus":2os807c8 said:

An

SacHawk2.0":2os807c8 said:

Sorry, very little chance of Wilson throwing for 4000 yards. We'll still be running around 60 plays a game, if we're leading in most like we should be over 50% of those are going to be rushing plays.

I'd say even 3500 would be pushing it. Maybe 4000 is possible, but he'd have a lot fewer rushing yards if that were the case. I could see 28-30 TDs.

Click to expand...

Not necessarily, let's say our schedule is more competitive than it was the year before, teams bring their A game vs the champs, whatever of the means, its very plausible.

Now let's cap Wilson's throw attempts at 425 max.

Let's say with a better offensive line he's able to complete 65% of his passes, and with better WRs his Y/C improves from 13.1 to 14.0.

65% of 425 = 277 x 14.0 = 3878
66% of 425 = 281 x 14.0 = 3934

And it wouldn't be out of the question especially if Harvin and Richardson stay healthy plus Baldwin, Kearse, and Willson taking another step up in their games.

Click to expand...

Um, those numbers aren't really plausible. 14.0*65% is 9.1 yards per attempt. There are only four QBs in NFL history with even 9 YPA and at least 400 passes: 1984 Marino, 2004 Manning, 2011 Rodgers and 1983 Lynn Dickey (this was unexpected, but he also had 29 interceptions), and I don't think Wilson is at that level yet. Also, YPC is not really about receiver quality, but about offensive scheme; a team that takes a lot of downfield shots is going to have a high YPC, but a lower completion percentage. Denver's record-setting offense last year only had 12.1 YPC.

Wilson - 3,700 yds, 30 tds, 10 ints, 400 yds rushing
Lynch - 1,200 yds, 12 tds
Michael & turbin - 750 yds 5 tds
Willson - 500 yds 5 tds
Harvin - 700 yds, 6 tds
Baldwin - 800 yds 6 tds
Rookie wrs - 600 yds, 6 tds

RW is going to have a few rushing TDs himself methinks. . . . just something to consider

SacHawk2.0":25byfuky said:

Sorry, very little chance of Wilson throwing for 4000 yards. We'll still be running around 60 plays a game, if we're leading in most like we should be over 50% of those are going to be rushing plays.

I'd say even 3500 would be pushing it. Maybe 4000 is possible, but he'd have a lot fewer rushing yards if that were the case. I could see 28-30 TDs.

Click to expand...

Heck if we just cut the sacks down form 44+ to 24 that is 20 more passes, PC did say he wants to throw more and be more balanced, so if we just go 50/50 that is another 44 passes and then add the 20 more form sacks and that is 64 more passes, to get 4k yards at 8.2 ypa he would need at least 540 attempts, that would be an increase of 130 with 64 taken by less sacks, and increase to 50/50 that still leaves 66, that's only 4 more per game, for a total of 33 per game so its possible who knows.

Anthony!":3nw3s8jp said:

SacHawk2.0":3nw3s8jp said:

Sorry, very little chance of Wilson throwing for 4000 yards. We'll still be running around 60 plays a game, if we're leading in most like we should be over 50% of those are going to be rushing plays.

I'd say even 3500 would be pushing it. Maybe 4000 is possible, but he'd have a lot fewer rushing yards if that were the case. I could see 28-30 TDs.

Click to expand...

Heck if we just cut the sacks down form 44+ to 24 that is 20 more passes, PC did say he wants to throw more and be more balanced, so if we just go 50/50 that is another 44 passes and then add the 20 more form sacks and that is 64 more passes, to get 4k yards at 8.2 ypa he would need at least 540 attempts, that would be an increase of 130 with 64 taken by less sacks, and increase to 50/50 that still leaves 66, that's only 4 more per game, for a total of 33 per game so its possible who knows.

Click to expand...

If the sacks get cut down by 20 that probably equates to closer to 50 more passes. Sacks kill drives. You don't just gain back the passes you'd have seen from the play the sack occurred on, you also gain the subsequent passing plays that never occurred at all because of the sack.