Group thinking

As the many who are interested in the draft find like sourced material about players. i.e.: seahawksdraftblog.com , CBSsports.com , their version of the reliable NFLdraftscout.com , and of course Walterfootball.com , for example here; there was a strong tendency this season for a lot of group thinking on our draft picks. As ever the FO surprised us some although a few got quite a few right many of us were surprised by some of the picks the team made. Many here, self included, developed group thinking and failed to read the tea leaves as accurately as we might have with more open mindedness.

Sadly if you are not regarded as a guru here, many take a point of pointing out how superior their knowledge is leading to a form of intimidation to the less obviously historically proven capable. It was demonstrably the case that, although there are several here where in some cases that may be true, in the end as a result conflicting views of needs and players are greeted with less than the welcoming discussion this board should try to engender. I'm not saying you can't be called out for patent nonsense but after all the time has passed since 2010 and this present capable in the FO and with our coaching even though a much stronger idea of what the team wants or needs should be. Trying to identify what PnJ's views of needs or wants is often intentionally obsfucated in order to create a false trail to prevent the predation of the guy or guys they actually want or wanted.

A few things have become clear, these guys value measureables (bigger, stronger, faster &/or SPARQ) and a sense of a chip on the shoulder or a deeply seated desire to be more than the publicly held perception of the player by an also like thinking media group who very early determine the value of a player and are hard to acknowledge they may have either overestimated that player's ability or equally that they have significantly underestimated the same. There also appears to be a factor of strong mindedness developing as the team's depth improves so a young player need to have that strong mindedness so he can be secure in his fight for roster slot despite significant competition for that spot. There are many unknown variables of unreported character issues and injuries both pro and con that can make or break a player's draft position leaving genuinely talented players undrafted and allowing less talented players to be be over selected.

Grading draft picks is a hugely subjective endeavour, height, weight, speed, strength, arm length, hand size all go into the hopper with the mostly unknown depth or strength of character or mental toughness (not necessarily the Ruskellesque goodie two shoes choir boy type assessments either). Many viewpoints as a result offer a broader perception to base those valuations.

This year's draft was notable for being a bit surprising to the few guru's here and those who are are known by us and respected. Let us hope going forward the board will be more inclusive to divergent thinking from those willing to discuss some rational bias for the upsides or downsides of prospects. I hope the group here does not think this is whining but several of us here were quite wrong for the Hawks this draft after being more right than wrong in the past and it is just that group thought that may be the basis. Interestingly as a positive many of the players we all identified by SPARQ or otherwise came to the team even though they may not have been drafted.

Let us hope this year we can be respectful of a broader viewpoint and and accept this is a very subjective endeavour.

That's, like, your opinion, man.



j/k

Well stated.

For the record, I don't think our franchise is actually great at drafting. Let's not forget that every scout in the room disagreed with JS over Russell Wilson. We are probably an average to slightly above average drafting team with a generational coach who might be the most brilliant talent developer the game of football has ever seen. You look at what this team has done in the first two rounds since 2010 and our track record is pretty close to middle of the pack. It's what they've done in the later rounds that really separates them, and most of that is on Pete and his talented coaching staff.

This year they surprised me only because I figured they wanted size and speed, instead of just speed, at WR. I know that after the 3rd round they generally go for prospects that are way off the radar, which is exactly why they have been so amazingly productive in the late rounds. That they make "who?!" picks in the second half of the draft is a good thing, IMO.

I hate argue with you Kearly but seriously PC/JS are in their 5th draft.

2010:

They drafted a top 10 LT in Okung (that's even your opinion, not mine, I consider him middle of the pack). Yet, do the Seahawks defeat SFO in the NFC CG without him and with McQuistan?

They also drafted the best Safety in the game, Earl Thomas, he's not only the best S but one of the best defensive players, period. Carroll's scheme doesn't work without him and all those late round DBs likely don't play as well either.

They also drafted one of the best all-around WRs in the game today in terms of catching ability, YAC, breaking tackles, deep routes, jump balls, blocking plus Special Teams.

2011:

Obviously, Carpenter has been a dissapointment but you really can't put that on Carroll. Who knows what Carp would be if he hadn't had huge injury setbacks? Also, this is really more on Cable than it is PC/JS. But Carp still has potential and he could very well turn his career around this year and become a dominant LG now that he's finally healthy.

John Moffitt, I'll say is a bust since he's out of the league but at least the Seahawks were able to trade down and get more draft ammo in the later rounds.

2012:

Jury is still out on Bruce Irvin. He led his class in sacks and ranked in the top ten in pressures per snap that year as well. Seahawks were able to obtain a surplus of pass-rushers in 2013, that, plus being suspended, and perhaps for developmental reasons pushed the Seahawks to play Irvin at SAM. And despite being incredibly raw, he wasn't bad nor was he good... he was solid and should improve with more experience. Irvin also possesess the all-around athleticism to dominate in coverage, and the skills to be a superb pass-rusher at the position. If he can improve his block shedding and run defending instincts he has the tools to be a special player at SAM or as a LEO.

Bobby Wagner: one of the best all-around MLBs in the game

Russell Wilson: enough said.

2013:

Percy Harvin: the trade doesn't look good now but if he stays healthy and helps spread out defenses, carries a good share of the offensive weight and take pressure off Wilson and Lynch... he's going to be worth it.

Christine Michael- You even called this pick, jury is still out but has the capabilities to be a big, time RB. He's explosive and athletic and many believe he could be one of the best RBs in the NFL once Lynch hangs it up.

Jordan Hill- Jury is also still out on him, but I project him to take over for Mebane in a year or two.

2014:

Paul Richardson: we'll see how he holds up and what his speed can do for this offense
Justin Britt: Obviously many still hate this pick but even though the jury is still out, I feel he'll be better than Giacomini and become the cornerstone RT we've been seeking.

I hate argue with you Kearly but seriously PC/JS are in their 5th draft.

2010:

They drafted a top 10 LT in Okung (that's even your opinion, not mine, I consider him middle of the pack). Yet, do the Seahawks defeat SFO in the NFC CG without him and with McQuistan?

They also drafted the best Safety in the game, Earl Thomas, he's not only the best S but one of the best defensive players, period. Carroll's scheme doesn't work without him and all those late round DBs likely don't play as well either.

They also drafted one of the best all-around WRs in the game today in terms of catching ability, YAC, breaking tackles, deep routes, jump balls, blocking plus Special Teams.

2011:

Obviously, Carpenter has been a dissapointment but you really can't put that on Carroll. Who knows what Carp would be if he hadn't had huge injury setbacks? Also, this is really more on Cable than it is PC/JS. But Carp still has potential and he could very well turn his career around this year and become a dominant LG now that he's finally healthy.

John Moffitt, I'll say is a bust since he's out of the league but at least the Seahawks were able to trade down and get more draft ammo in the later rounds.

2012:

Jury is still out on Bruce Irvin. He led his class in sacks and ranked in the top ten in pressures per snap that year as well. Seahawks were able to obtain a surplus of pass-rushers in 2013, that, plus being suspended, and perhaps for developmental reasons pushed the Seahawks to play Irvin at SAM. And despite being incredibly raw, he wasn't bad nor was he good... he was solid and should improve with more experience. Irvin also possesess the all-around athleticism to dominate in coverage, and the skills to be a superb pass-rusher at the position. If he can improve his block shedding and run defending instincts he has the tools to be a special player at SAM or as a LEO.

Bobby Wagner: one of the best all-around MLBs in the game

Russell Wilson: enough said.

2013:

Percy Harvin: the trade doesn't look good now but if he stays healthy and helps spread out defenses, carries a good share of the offensive weight and take pressure off Wilson and Lynch... he's going to be worth it.

Christine Michael- You even called this pick, jury is still out but has the capabilities to be a big, time RB. He's explosive and athletic and many believe he could be one of the best RBs in the NFL once Lynch hangs it up.

Jordan Hill- Jury is also still out on him, but I project him to take over for Mebane in a year or two.

2014:

Paul Richardson: we'll see how he holds up and what his speed can do for this offense
Justin Britt: Obviously many still hate this pick but even though the jury is still out, I feel he'll be better than Giacomini and become the cornerstone RT we've been seeking.

I dont know whst Kearlys point but Kipers point is that for the amount of late round success they've had and the lack of early round talent they have found, a lot of the credit needs to go to the coaching.

When you draft an LT 6th overall he should be elite. Being top ten is okay but thats just a par. Outside of landing Walter Jones you can really only get a pass/fail.

Thomas for the Hawks to have gotten at 14 was extremely lucky. Retaining Milloy to guide him through his rookie season was in hindsight brilliant. Not to mention Carroll is known for secondary coaching and Richard and Seto have helped. Thats on top of Earls natural abilities.

Tate was okay. Better ST than reciever.

Carpenter has been lackluster.

Moffit bust.

Irvin would be considered a disapointment. That you IMO can put on the coaches. Carroll called him the prototype Leo and it so far hasnt panned out.

Harvin doesnt count either way. He was a known commidity and we paid for it.

Michael its too early. He is behind a top five back and we had the luxury of red shirting him.

And with all that said he drafted Russel Wilson in the third. Even if I believed everything I just posted this would erase any and all mistakes he has ever made. Yes, even Charlie Whitehurst. He brought Russ to Seattle. He can do whatever he wants.

I consider Russell Wilson to be in the later-round category. He was a guy that was off many draft boards completely, and was talked about as a 5th round guy a couple months before the draft. Like Sherman and Kam, he needed to go to the perfect situation, a coach who would let him be who he is and support him instead of trying to force him to be something he's not.

My point about the earlier rounds (1-2) is that this is the area of the draft where scouts are in relative consensus, and Seattle's results there have been pretty much middle of the pack. Its after those first couple waves of talent fade away that the coaching staff really shows it's worth. It's not like we have this amazing team because JS can see the future on day three of the draft.

Regarding Okung and Thomas, who are both terrific, it's worth remembering that those two were PC/JS's "plan B" guys. The safety they wanted was Eric Berry, and the tackle they wanted was Trent Williams. All four of those players have been as advertised (though Okung has had injuries). But it kind of goes to show that when you pick early, in a year like 2010 that was really strong at the top, it doesn't make you exceptional to get good players. JS joked after the draft that his grandma would have drafted Okung and Thomas.

The key to evaluating Seahawks' draft picks is to read the Strengths and stop there. Simply ignore the Weaknesses. Not all players can overcome those weaknesses, but that's the idea of selecting lots of players - you keep the ones who work.

Look at speed, for example. If you select fast players with some weaknesses, you can potentially work off the weaknesses. If you take a guy who is NFL-ready but lacks the speed you are looking for, you will never get that speed.

We may pick a faster guy with a glaring weakness over a slower guy who's NFL-ready and look pretty silly doing so on draft day. The secret to Schneider's success is drafting players who have the capacity and will to work off those weaknesses more often than not.

So it's useless to look at the weaknesses - they don't define the player's potential. You only see that potential in the "Strengths" part.

The other part of the equation is we have a head coach who is willing to give guys game time based on their ability to play instead of their draft position or salary number. Once acquired, a player is a player, and they all complete to see who earns the field time.

Our 5th-rounders and UDFAs have a greater success rate because the fact that they are 5th-rounders or UDFAs doesn't keep them on the sideline. There's no sense of looking foolish for making a bad trade or overpaying a player or drafting someone to high, because none of that matters in the start/sit decision making - it all comes down to who can perform the best on Sunday, not draft day.

kearly":3085pr4v said:

I consider Russell Wilson to be in the later-round category. He was a guy that was off many draft boards completely, and was talked about as a 5th round guy a couple months before the draft. Like Sherman and Kam, he needed to go to the perfect situation, a coach who would let him be who he is and support him instead of trying to force him to be something he's not.

My point about the earlier rounds (1-2) is that this is the area of the draft where scouts are in relative consensus, and Seattle's results there have been pretty much middle of the pack. Its after those first couple waves of talent fade away that the coaching staff really shows it's worth. It's not like we have this amazing team because JS can see the future on day three of the draft.

Regarding Okung and Thomas, who are both terrific, it's worth remembering that those two were PC/JS's "plan B" guys. The safety they wanted was Eric Berry, and the tackle they wanted was Trent Williams. All four of those players have been as advertised (though Okung has had injuries). But it kind of goes to show that when you pick early, in a year like 2010 that was really strong at the top, it doesn't make you exceptional to get good players. JS joked after the draft that his grandma would have drafted Okung and Thomas.

Click to expand...

Totally agree about the early round question marks. Remove our late rd guys and this team would not be champions today. Our early rd woes is the stuff that hobbles most franchises...sometimes for decades.

I think it's a sign of how damaging mediocrity can be to a franchise. If we were flat out crap, we would be better positioned to draft future stars and if we were real good..well, we'd be real good and this wouldn't be an issue. But to be average and pick mid rd year after year? Without researching the subject and / or it's impact on other teams, I have to think picking a stud mid rd is harder than one might believe.

I am with Kip on this one, and have been for a while.

Our coaching staff doesn't draft hidden gems, they are just better diamond cutters than everyone else.

Well I can see both points on the drafting issue.

SF hasn't exactly tore it up in the 1st round either, but they've hit on the mid rounders (they've feasted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, and their 1st round OL picks always pan out).

I'd disagree on Carpenter. As of right now, he's a bust. Why ? Because we're the only team that would've drafted him in the 1st round. We get a lot of "what? who?" picks in the mid rounds, but your margin of error is greater there. No one rips you for a 5th round bust. If you pick a guy 2 rounds before the consensus grade on him, then you better get that right, or the pick will be critisized. Now, if you drafted him in the 3rd, or even the 2nd...well if he washes out at RT, then goes to Guard and is mediocre....what did we expect ? He was a 3rd rounder.

I agree we're middle of the pack in the 1st round so far, but with only 4 drafts, that's hard to escape. Incidentally, most of the GM's in the league hit at about a 50% rate....strangely enough if you're below that you suck and if you're above that you're world beaters. NE hasn't been that great at drafting; I would be surprised if they were higher than 50%. SF's last 4 draft picks in the 1st are a 2/4 split (and they're considered the elite in the NFL at drafting according to the pundits).

What I disagree on is that it's all Carroll. I can agree it's a big part of it, but if we drafted a guy like Sherman, and we were that confident that we could keep getting late round guys and develop them that well....why give out a max contract ?

Wouldn't Simon be the next stud ? Maxwell wouldn't have cost that much. Shead, etc. the list goes on. At some point, it's not just player development, but you realize you have a special player. I also disagree about Thomas. I know the Hawks wanted Berry, and he's great, but he hasn't developed like Thomas has. Thomas is a generationally special player. Berry is nowhere near as good in coverage and probably slightly better in run support.

If it is all Carroll and player development, then we all better hope he stays young at heart for a lot longer and sticks around. As soon as he's gone, we're gone. We can't lean on the FO at that point.

Okung at the point of the draft was one of the best tackles available, it's who we took for better or worse, elite or not, we needed a tackle.