Russell #1 again

12thManNorth

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Barnwell is awesome. Somebody who finally recognizes RW's overall value & importance. Another great article
 

ManBunts

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To be fair to the article's intent, it's trying to say he's essentially the least tradeable (from our team's perspective) player in the NFL because he's so awesome for so cheap. Not necessarily THE BEST in the NFL.

However, the article as a whole does shine a light on how smart our front office is. So damn good with getting the talent for the money
 

rideaducati

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Kaepernick is going to make all these guys look foolish for putting him so high on these lists. Dude just isn't a good QB.
 

kearly

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Mostly a very good read. It's a rare thing to see people put thought into things the way he does.

A few quibbles. I know Manning is a short window player who isn't cheap, but no player in the game makes his team better than Manning does. He doesn't have to be the #1 asset, but putting a couple of pass rushers ahead of him is silly, IMO. Think the Broncos would trade Manning for Quinn straight up? I think Fisher and Snead would quite possibly injure themselves in celebration if that offer were made.

Also, for all the smart things he says, he still cites QBR. C'mon Man!
 

Smelly McUgly

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I think if Elway tried to trade Manning for Quinn and Snead made that trade, I would laugh at the Rams yet again. I'm sorry, but trading for a 37-year-old elite QB two years removed from neck surgery by giving up your 24-year-old elite pass rusher is insane. If we pretend that cap acceleration issues don't exist as this exercise wants us to do, you are trading two more cheap years of Quinn + first dibs on his prime years for two years of elite/very good play at QB. That's an awful way to build a team.

I guess the counter-argument is that if the Rams win a Super Bowl because of the trade, it is worth it, but that's about the only argument for that trade that doesn't get terrible value otherwise. Elway would rightly be hailed as a genius even if he had to start Brock Osweiler for this year.

He has to cite QBR since he works for the Mothership, probably. Barnwell isn't perfect, but this is a really good exercise that I think he is spot on with this year.
 

jdemps

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rideaducati":2b2fh0zt said:
Kaepernick is going to make all these guys look foolish for putting him so high on these lists. Dude just isn't a good QB.

We really need to take off the homer glasses here and take a deep breath. Kaep with his ability to run and one read passing ability makes him a middle of the pack QB in the NFL. I would take him on my team over any of the following QBs:

Bradford
Geno Smith
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Schaub
Terrell Pryor
Chad Henne
E.J. Manuel
Carson Palmer
Whoever's playing for Minnestoa

As the list was trade value which approximates to ability per cost, he's still making 2nd round money for this season (plus signing bonus money is like a $4 mill cap hit). He's cheap and moderately affective.

That being said, we've got the best situation is the league and I wouldn't trade it for the world. I have to give credit (albeit not much) where credit is due.
 

Scottemojo

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I like Barnwell, but...
He is resolute in his nerdery. He posts weekly inseason lists of coaches who violate his narrow protocols on end of half and 4th down percentages, stuff like that.

I guarantee, even with the money, at least 3/4 of the GMs would take Luck and his first pick salary over Russ. Which makes Barnwell's value list immaterial.
 

BlueTalon

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kearly":1iwu82vo said:
Mostly a very good read. It's a rare thing to see people put thought into things the way he does.

A few quibbles. I know Manning is a short window player who isn't cheap, but no player in the game makes his team better than Manning does. He doesn't have to be the #1 asset, but putting a couple of pass rushers ahead of him is silly, IMO. Think the Broncos would trade Manning for Quinn straight up? I think Fisher and Snead would quite possibly injure themselves in celebration if that offer were made.
In fairness, he did say that Peyton is an anomaly with factors that made him hard to place. The scenario was a team with a bit more cap room than it would take to make the trade and a below average starter at the position.

I agree with your assessment of how the Rams would react if made the offer, but the main reason they would is that they have an embarrassment of riches on the D-line. If their situation was different, say more like Houston's situation with one clear star there, they'd have to think a lot harder about it. And then they would still have to manage their cap, and that trade would basically stagnate them at every other position. That's why I think Barnwell placed him where he did on the list.

Regardless, it was an enjoyable read.
 

Smelly McUgly

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Scottemojo":3rkjgoad said:
I guarantee, even with the money, at least 3/4 of the GMs would take Luck and his first pick salary over Russ. Which makes Barnwell's value list immaterial.

I think so too, but since GMs are not completely efficient with their resources all the time, I think that says more about the judgment of the GMs that would take Luck over Wilson than it does about Barnwell's value list.

Of course, this is a much harder exercise for football because in real life, besides cap issues that would come into play, there are system issues, etc.
 

rideaducati

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jdemps":gwvaukm0 said:
rideaducati":gwvaukm0 said:
Kaepernick is going to make all these guys look foolish for putting him so high on these lists. Dude just isn't a good QB.

We really need to take off the homer glasses here and take a deep breath. Kaep with his ability to run and one read passing ability makes him a middle of the pack QB in the NFL. I would take him on my team over any of the following QBs:

Bradford
Geno Smith
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Schaub
Terrell Pryor
Chad Henne
E.J. Manuel
Carson Palmer
Whoever's playing for Minnestoa

As the list was trade value which approximates to ability per cost, he's still making 2nd round money for this season (plus signing bonus money is like a $4 mill cap hit). He's cheap and moderately affective.

That being said, we've got the best situation is the league and I wouldn't trade it for the world. I have to give credit (albeit not much) where credit is due.

That's fine. You're not winning it all with Kaepernick. You listed several QBs that are better than Kaepernick at being QBs. Give them the team Kaepernick has had and several of them would have won the Superbowl.
 

kearly

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Smelly McUgly":nvffka5n said:
I think if Elway tried to trade Manning for Quinn and Snead made that trade, I would laugh at the Rams yet again. I'm sorry, but trading for a 37-year-old elite QB two years removed from neck surgery by giving up your 24-year-old elite pass rusher is insane. If we pretend that cap acceleration issues don't exist as this exercise wants us to do, you are trading two more cheap years of Quinn + first dibs on his prime years for two years of elite/very good play at QB. That's an awful way to build a team.

I guess the counter-argument is that if the Rams win a Super Bowl because of the trade, it is worth it, but that's about the only argument for that trade that doesn't get terrible value otherwise. Elway would rightly be hailed as a genius even if he had to start Brock Osweiler for this year.

I look at it this way. How many games does Denver win without Manning last year? Probably 3 or 4.

How many games do they win last year without Von Miller? 13.

A great pass rusher is still just one guy. He can be the difference in a close game, but over the course of a season he's not going to add multiple wins by himself. Manning on the other hand...

Denver's passing DVOA last year had a better score than Seattle's entire defense. Even if it's only for 3 years, you couldn't match Manning's value with a single defensive player. No non-QB player would even come close.

Quinn will have more value for a few years after Manning retires, but Manning will probably add roughly as much to his team's win total in one season than Quinn will in the rest of his career.
 

Cartire

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kearly":155ew3dr said:
Smelly McUgly":155ew3dr said:
I think if Elway tried to trade Manning for Quinn and Snead made that trade, I would laugh at the Rams yet again. I'm sorry, but trading for a 37-year-old elite QB two years removed from neck surgery by giving up your 24-year-old elite pass rusher is insane. If we pretend that cap acceleration issues don't exist as this exercise wants us to do, you are trading two more cheap years of Quinn + first dibs on his prime years for two years of elite/very good play at QB. That's an awful way to build a team.

I guess the counter-argument is that if the Rams win a Super Bowl because of the trade, it is worth it, but that's about the only argument for that trade that doesn't get terrible value otherwise. Elway would rightly be hailed as a genius even if he had to start Brock Osweiler for this year.

I look at it this way. How many games does Denver win without Manning last year? Probably 3 or 4.

How many games do they win last year without Von Miller? 13.

A great pass rusher is still just one guy. He can be the difference in a close game, but over the course of a season he's not going to add multiple wins by himself. Manning on the other hand...

Denver's passing DVOA last year had a better score than Seattle's entire defense. Even if it's only for 3 years, you couldn't match Manning's value with a single defensive player. No non-QB player would even come close.

Quinn will have more value for a few years after Manning retires, but Manning will probably add roughly as much to his team's win total in one season than Quinn will in the rest of his career.

No, im sorry. That denver team without manning wins more then 3-4 games. Thats a complete undersale. I think if you just look 3 seasons ago, you can see a very good example of that with Denver. How quickly we forget a young Tim Tebow running the show there and having a playoff win.

And on top of that. The talent in Denver is far superior to what it was with Tebow.
 

RolandDeschain

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Really not a fan of Barnwell not mentioning during his Luck praise that there is literally zero chance he brings the Colts back for that win if Kansas City didn't lose starters every five minutes throughout the whole game.

The Luck legend continues to grow.....
 

HuskerHawk

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Cartire":1sqa4tkt said:
kearly":1sqa4tkt said:
Smelly McUgly":1sqa4tkt said:
I think if Elway tried to trade Manning for Quinn and Snead made that trade, I would laugh at the Rams yet again. I'm sorry, but trading for a 37-year-old elite QB two years removed from neck surgery by giving up your 24-year-old elite pass rusher is insane. If we pretend that cap acceleration issues don't exist as this exercise wants us to do, you are trading two more cheap years of Quinn + first dibs on his prime years for two years of elite/very good play at QB. That's an awful way to build a team.

I guess the counter-argument is that if the Rams win a Super Bowl because of the trade, it is worth it, but that's about the only argument for that trade that doesn't get terrible value otherwise. Elway would rightly be hailed as a genius even if he had to start Brock Osweiler for this year.

I look at it this way. How many games does Denver win without Manning last year? Probably 3 or 4.

How many games do they win last year without Von Miller? 13.

A great pass rusher is still just one guy. He can be the difference in a close game, but over the course of a season he's not going to add multiple wins by himself. Manning on the other hand...

Denver's passing DVOA last year had a better score than Seattle's entire defense. Even if it's only for 3 years, you couldn't match Manning's value with a single defensive player. No non-QB player would even come close.

Quinn will have more value for a few years after Manning retires, but Manning will probably add roughly as much to his team's win total in one season than Quinn will in the rest of his career.

No, im sorry. That denver team without manning wins more then 3-4 games. Thats a complete undersale. I think if you just look 3 seasons ago, you can see a very good example of that with Denver. How quickly we forget a young Tim Tebow running the show there and having a playoff win.

And on top of that. The talent in Denver is far superior to what it was with Tebow.
Ya they were probably an 8-10 win team with average qb play. They had an excellent offensive line, two surefire pro bowlers and another on the fringe at WR, and a decent to good defense by AFC standards. Top to bottom they were arguably the most talented AFC squad, with Cincy up there as well.
 

Anthony!

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Scottemojo":u6nqrzo2 said:
I like Barnwell, but...
He is resolute in his nerdery. He posts weekly inseason lists of coaches who violate his narrow protocols on end of half and 4th down percentages, stuff like that.

I guarantee, even with the money, at least 3/4 of the GMs would take Luck and his first pick salary over Russ. Which makes Barnwell's value list immaterial.


you would be wrong, the word is out and people are starting to see it, RW is being rated ahead of luck by some, people are seeing that Luck has more around him then they thought, and that Rw has performed at a higher level. You might be right had you said half but not 3/4 any more, and even the half might change soon.
 

Scottemojo

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Anthony!":2cdbva22 said:
Scottemojo":2cdbva22 said:
I like Barnwell, but...
He is resolute in his nerdery. He posts weekly inseason lists of coaches who violate his narrow protocols on end of half and 4th down percentages, stuff like that.

I guarantee, even with the money, at least 3/4 of the GMs would take Luck and his first pick salary over Russ. Which makes Barnwell's value list immaterial.


you would be wrong, the word is out and people are starting to see it, RW is being rated ahead of luck by some, people are seeing that Luv has more around him then the thought, and that Rw has performed at a higher level. You might be right had you said half but not 3/4 any more, and even the half might change soon.
The following is not a personal attack: You are a dedicated Wilson sycophant. I am sure it is a glorious feeling. Sometimes I wish I were more capable of idolizing a player.

But reality is this (dated July 2)http://www.fieldgulls.com/nfl-offse...ings-continue-to-go-over-well-on-the-internet which included
Eight general managers, two former GMs, four pro personnel evaluators, seven coordinators, two head coaches, two position coaches and a top executive
 

Cartire

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Scottemojo":g8jwjajo said:
Anthony!":g8jwjajo said:
Scottemojo":g8jwjajo said:
I like Barnwell, but...
He is resolute in his nerdery. He posts weekly inseason lists of coaches who violate his narrow protocols on end of half and 4th down percentages, stuff like that.

I guarantee, even with the money, at least 3/4 of the GMs would take Luck and his first pick salary over Russ. Which makes Barnwell's value list immaterial.


you would be wrong, the word is out and people are starting to see it, RW is being rated ahead of luck by some, people are seeing that Luv has more around him then the thought, and that Rw has performed at a higher level. You might be right had you said half but not 3/4 any more, and even the half might change soon.
The following is not a personal attack: You are a dedicated Wilson sycophant. I am sure it is a glorious feeling. Sometimes I wish I were more capable of idolizing a player.

But reality is this (dated July 2)http://www.fieldgulls.com/nfl-offse...ings-continue-to-go-over-well-on-the-internet which included
Eight general managers, two former GMs, four pro personnel evaluators, seven coordinators, two head coaches, two position coaches and a top executive

The 2 list are quite different. Barnwells list is not ranking QB's. Its ranking trade Value. $7 million difference is a pretty big thing. And heres the thing. Luck is still 2nd with that much of a money gap. But the logic is sound. I would completely get it if they were making the same salary and luck was ahead of Wilson. I would get that. But $7 million difference is huge when you see the overall production difference (which isnt much different)
 
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