Tokadub's Power Rankings including Total Wins for every team

Tokadub

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NOTICE: Good news guys! I don't think I can possibly do any more of these until the end of the season unless I think of some strange math equation but I don't think it will be possible since I'm not gonna do fractions... So for all the haters pretty sure you won't have to see this again till the end of the season.

MY MOST RECENT POST AT BOTTOM IS FOR WEEK 8, LOOK AT THE GREEN NUMBERS IF YOU WANT TO SEE WHAT EACH TEAM IS MATHEMATICALLY ON PACE FOR BASED ON THEIR CURRENT RECORDS.



So seeing that all the Week 1 Power Rankings are coming out today I thought it'd be fun to do my own and then at the end of the season I can come back and see how right or wrong I was. Unlike the lazy media I'm also including the win totals because I think that makes it a lot more meaningful.

It'd be cool if some other people did their own lists so at the end of the season we can see how people did. We could probably even do some kinda scoring system but that's a long ways off after week 17 so I don't wanna think about those details yet.

You'd probably wanna just copy/paste the format I have below and put your name in there and rearrange all the teams for your predictions so you don't have to type all of it from scratch. And then AFTER you do your list you can count up your win totals to see how close you came to the 256 total possible wins, no cheaters please ;)

Not sure if anyone else will want to do this since it's kinda a lot of work, but I think it's interesting to try to predict something like this so far in advance since there's like an infinite amount of variables that need to unfold for each team during the course of the regular season. Anyways here's my list:


Tokadub’s Power Rankings (after Week 1)

14 Wins
1) Seahawks


13 Wins


12 Wins
2) Broncos
3) Saints


11 Wins
4) Packers
5) Eagles
6) Lions


10 Wins
7) Patriots
8 Colts


9 Wins
9) 49ers
10) Dolphins
11) Cardinals


8 Wins
12) Falcons
13) Panthers
14) Chiefs
15) Steelers
16) Chargers
17) Bengals


7 Wins
18) Titans
19) Bears
20) Cowboys
21) Jets
22) Bills


6 Wins
23) Texans
24) Vikings
25) Ravens


5 Wins
26) Rams
27) Redskins
28) Giants
29) Jaguars


4 Wins
30) Browns
31) Buccaneers


3 Wins
32) Raiders


There are 256 games in the regular season. My prediction comes out to a total of 250 wins. I didn’t check how many wins I had until AFTER I completed my list. So I am just six wins short of the real total of 256 games. This means that I very slightly under-rated a few teams compared to the teams I over-rated.

I wish the media’s power rankings included win totals since that’s a much more accurate way to measure things. Judging by how wrong the media seems to be on a regular basis I doubt the majority of their lists would come within 6 wins from the 256 possible if they did the list first and then counted their totals.
 

Scottemojo

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There are 256 NFL games.

Your list does not add up.

Carry on.
 
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Tokadub

Tokadub

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Scottemojo":1tp95axv said:
There are 256 NFL games.

Your list does not add up.

Carry on.

Ya I know it doesn't add up to 256, that's the whole purpose of this exercise to predict the win totals of every team from mental scratch. Not running any kind of tallies or doing any kind of math. Simply look at each team and predict how many games they are going to win based on their schedule and how good you think they are.

For the teams that have the same win totals I ranked them in order of who I think is best.

So it's a Power Ranking + Win Total mental challenge not a "I'm gonna cheat and make sure it adds up to exactly 256". You're supposed to do it based on pure instinct and schedule analysis.
 
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Tokadub

Tokadub

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Pandion Haliaetus":35u3ep0t said:
What about the Cowboys makes you believe they can win 7 games?

Overall this is more of just a gut feeling type of pick when I looked at their schedule, but there is a little bit of rational thought behind it.

I think they woulda beat the 49ers if they had 1 interception not 3. They had 382 total yards even though they had 4 turnovers, that's pretty good. Now the 49ers are weak right now but I still have them as a 9 win team so if the Cowboys had a shot to win but just self imploded it shows they are at least somewhat capable.

I also didn't follow the Cowboys closely enough this off season to know how bad their defense really is. I kinda just have a feeling that this is another case of the media looking for a story and saying they are worst than they really are. I mean the 49ers only scored 28 on them even though they benefited from 4 turnovers. The 49ers Offense isn't really decimated compared to their defense so if they can only put up 28 the Cowboy's defense may not be as bad as all the "experts" are spouting non-stop.

Then I'm looking at the Cowboys schedule:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/dal/dallas-cowboys

And I think they could very possibly win the following games:

1) Week 3 St Louis
2) Week 5 Houston
3) Week 7 New York
4) Week 8 Redskins
5) Week 10 Jacksonville
6) Week 12 New York
7) Week 14 Chicago
8) Week 17 Washington

Seems like 8 winnable games. Plus I just had a gut feeling for them and how their defense might not be as bad as the media is saying, made me pick them at 7 wins total.
 

Subzero717

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Tokadub":3kscx1di said:
Scottemojo":3kscx1di said:
There are 256 NFL games.

Your list does not add up.

Carry on.

Ya I know it doesn't add up to 256, that's the whole purpose of this exercise to predict the win totals of every team from mental scratch. Not running any kind of tallies or doing any kind of math. Simply look at each team and predict how many games they are going to win based on their schedule and how good you think they are.

For the teams that have the same win totals I ranked them in order of who I think is best.

So it's a Power Ranking + Win Total mental challenge not a "I'm gonna cheat and make sure it adds up to exactly 256". You're supposed to do it based on pure instinct and schedule analysis.


What the ???????
 

hawksfansinceday1

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Appreciate your efforts and if it doesn't add to 256 I don't give a shit. Supposed to be for fun.

Cowboys, no more than 5 wins IMO.
 

Ad Hawk

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MizzouHawkGal":3u6crfs8 said:
The_Z_Man":3u6crfs8 said:
I absolutely cannot find 7 losses on the 49ers schedule... I can find 5, if we are lucky...
Agreed but more likely 4 would be the reality.

I can see two, for sure. :th2thumbs:
 
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CALIHAWK1":q73x92ed said:
Tokadub":q73x92ed said:
Scottemojo":q73x92ed said:
There are 256 NFL games.

Your list does not add up.

Carry on.

Ya I know it doesn't add up to 256, that's the whole purpose of this exercise to predict the win totals of every team from mental scratch. Not running any kind of tallies or doing any kind of math. Simply look at each team and predict how many games they are going to win based on their schedule and how good you think they are.

For the teams that have the same win totals I ranked them in order of who I think is best.

So it's a Power Ranking + Win Total mental challenge not a "I'm gonna cheat and make sure it adds up to exactly 256". You're supposed to do it based on pure instinct and schedule analysis.


What the ???????

Haha seems like a lot of people don't understand what I was doing here. This is not a scientific exercise, all I was doing was looking at each team one by one and predicting how many games they would win using nothing more than their schedule.

It doesn't add up to exactly 256 because I wasn't making my win estimations by "they will win that game for sure!". I made the win totals by looking at the entire season schedule and making my best prediction of how many games they would win.

The only way it would add up to exactly 256 was if I literally kept track of every single pick I made for every team to make sure that no games conflicted. That would take FOREVER and require me to make definitive picks for who would win ALL 256 GAMES....

So instead what I did was take like 10-15 seconds on each team that I didn't already have a strong opinion of how many games they would win. So a quick look at the schedule and predict their total wins.

I could of tried to adjust the win totals after I completed my list so it would add up to 256 but that wouldn't even make my predictions any more accurate necessarily. I think if I counted up the win totals for each team at the end of the season and saw how close I was this would be as close as I can get even though it doesn't add up to 256. Just because you have exactly 256 wins doesn't mean the total prediction would be more accurate, if I put those 6 missing wins to the wrong teams the prediction would be worst.

Hopefully this makes sense now haha, it's just a fun little prediction excercise because I want to look back at this at the end of the season and be able to say either "DAMN IM GOOD!" or "Wow... what was I thinking?!" :D
 
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Tokadub

Tokadub

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The_Z_Man":27tw3nnb said:
I absolutely cannot find 7 losses on the 49ers schedule... I can find 5, if we are lucky...

These are the games I think the 49ers could lose:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-49ers

1) Week 2 VS Bears
2) Week 3 VS Cardinals
3) Week 4 VS Eagles
4) Week 7 VS Broncos
5) Week 10 VS Saints
6) Week 13 VS Seahawks
7) Week 15 VS Seahawks
8) Week 17 VS Cardinals

So that's 8 games right there I think 9 wins is about right, they could win even less in my opinion. Have you guys not seen how bad their defense is right now? I'm not sold on their offense either whenever Kaepernick is in charge.

The Bears and Eagles could be tough matchups for the 49ers right now because their defense can't stop anyone.

I think all the other games I listed are self explanatory since they are against good teams.

I just can't see them only losing 4 of those games, not with their defense decimated like this and Kaepernick who is very capable of losing on any given Sunday.
 

MizzouHawkGal

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Tokadub":jzq7l8kb said:
The_Z_Man":jzq7l8kb said:
I absolutely cannot find 7 losses on the 49ers schedule... I can find 5, if we are lucky...

These are the games I think the 49ers could lose:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-49ers

1) Week 2 VS Bears
2) Week 3 VS Cardinals
3) Week 4 VS Eagles
4) Week 7 VS Broncos
5) Week 10 VS Saints
6) Week 13 VS Seahawks
7) Week 15 VS Seahawks
8) Week 17 VS Cardinals

So that's 8 games right there I think 9 wins is about right, they could win even less in my opinion. Have you guys not seen how bad their defense is right now? I'm not sold on their offense either whenever Kaepernick is in charge.

The Bears and Eagles could be tough matchups for the 49ers right now because their defense can't stop anyone.

I think all the other games I listed are self explanatory since they are against good teams.

I just can't see them only losing 4 of those games, not with their defense decimated like this and Kaepernick who is very capable of losing on any given Sunday.
Love you Tokabub but c'mon!

They aren't losing against the Bears and no way do the Cardinals sweep them. Philadelphia has a decent shot and MAYBE we sweep them... maybe.
 

Aerik

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Tokadub":fqh9u0ax said:
Haha seems like a lot of people don't understand what I was doing here. This is not a scientific exercise, all I was doing was looking at each team one by one and predicting how many games they would win using nothing more than their schedule.

It doesn't add up to exactly 256 because I wasn't making my win estimations by "they will win that game for sure!". I made the win totals by looking at the entire season schedule and making my best prediction of how many games they would win.

The only way it would add up to exactly 256 was if I literally kept track of every single pick I made for every team to make sure that no games conflicted. That would take FOREVER and require me to make definitive picks for who would win ALL 256 GAMES....

So instead what I did was take like 10-15 seconds on each team that I didn't already have a strong opinion of how many games they would win. So a quick look at the schedule and predict their total wins.

I could of tried to adjust the win totals after I completed my list so it would add up to 256 but that wouldn't even make my predictions any more accurate necessarily. I think if I counted up the win totals for each team at the end of the season and saw how close I was this would be as close as I can get even though it doesn't add up to 256. Just because you have exactly 256 wins doesn't mean the total prediction would be more accurate, if I put those 6 missing wins to the wrong teams the prediction would be worst.

Hopefully this makes sense now haha, it's just a fun little prediction excercise because I want to look back at this at the end of the season and be able to say either "DAMN IM GOOD!" or "Wow... what was I thinking?!" :D

Reread all this, but in the voice of Cosmos' Carl Sagan, then it makes sense
 

hawksfansinceday1

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The_Z_Man":37i2lc7m said:
Ad Hawk":37i2lc7m said:
I can see two, for sure. :th2thumbs:


Seahawks have to prove they can win in San Fran before I count that game against SF... all homerism aside, when you lose at a place 8 times in a row you forfeit any right to suggest otherwise.
Agree 100% Z_Man. And of course the NFL screwed us on the Thurs. night game yet again by putting us on the road for the 3rd year in a row with 2 of those being @ Frisco so that doesn't help.
 
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Tokadub

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So I'm gonna give the current projected win totals of all the teams compared to my original list.

In this case I am just going to multiply all the team's current win totals by 5 which accounts for 15 of the games. I probably should wait till after next week so I could multiply their win totals by 4 to simulate a total of exactly 16 games but whatever.

I understand if nobody else is interested in my list specifically, I wouldn't really expect you too be haha (but hopefully I'm not wasting too much forum space). Maybe by the end of the season it will be a bit more interesting, but I just have way too much time on my hands today so this post is mainly for my personal analysis.

In this case you could potentially add 1 win to certain teams due to this only covering 15/16 games.


Projected Totals (each team's current win total multiplied by 5) VS Original Predictions:

14 Wins
1) Seahawks 10 Wins


13 Wins


12 Wins
2) Broncos 10 Wins
3) Saints 5 Wins


11 Wins
4) Packers 5 Wins
5) Eagles 15 Wins
6) Lions 10 Wins


10 Wins
7) Patriots 10 Wins
8 Colts 5 Wins


9 Wins
9) 49ers 5 Wins
10) Dolphins 5 Wins
11) Cardinals 15 Wins


8 Wins
12) Falcons 10 Wins
13) Panthers 10 Wins
14) Chiefs 5 Wins
15) Steelers 10 Wins
16) Chargers 10 Wins
17) Bengals 15 Wins


7 Wins
18) Titans 5 Wins
19) Bears 10 Wins
20) Cowboys 10 Wins
21) Jets 5 Wins
22) Bills 10 Wins


6 Wins
23) Texans 10 Wins
24) Vikings 5 Wins
25) Ravens 10 Wins


5 Wins
26) Rams 5 Wins
27) Redskins 5 Wins
28) Giants 5 Wins
29) Jaguars 0 Wins


4 Wins
30) Browns 5 Wins
31) Buccaneers 0 Wins


3 Wins
32) Raiders 0 Wins


Kinda a worthless excercise I really should of waited till after next week oh well :thirishdrinkers:

At least so far my 49ers prediction (9 wins) and my Cowboys (7 wins) seems to be pretty good, those are the only predictions I've really been called out for ;)
 

hawksfansinceday1

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Cardinals ain't winning 15 my friend. Bungles might actually win 15 in the AFC but it wouldn't matter cuz the Ginger would just gag in the playoffs like he always does.
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Oh, and the Hawks ain't winning just 10 either nor are the Raiders winning zero. I said Hawks would win 13 in the season prediction thread and I'm standing by that. As for Oakland, probably 3ish.
 

Hasselbeck

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I.... I don't even know what your new list is hoping to accomplish. Is this a minimum/maximum? Or revised win totals?
 
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Tokadub

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It seems like over 50% of the people have a serious lack of reading comprehension when it comes to this thread. I explained how everything works and it's simple... :lol:

The green numbers are simply a projection without going into fractions of wins based on how the season has gone so far. Obviously after just 3 games it's very innaccurate at this point, I was just bored :D
 
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