OK here's the percentage of our Wide Receiver targets in comparison to their snap count.
Player's Receiving Targets / Player's Total Offensive Snaps = Player's Target % Rate
1) Walters = 18.87%
2) Harvin = 14.36%
3) Lockette = 11.76%
4) Baldwin = 8.89%
5) Kearse = 7.33%
6) Richardson = 2.63%
So Walters is our most targeted player when he's in there... which either means he is getting a ton of designed plays or he is actually better than all of our other guys at getting open which is frightening :shock:
What I don't like here is that our two most targeted receivers are averaging very little yards per catch...
Harvin is averaging just 6 yards per catch.
Walters is averaging 8.8 yards per catch.
But for some reason these guys are getting way more targets than our guys who are averaging WAY more yards per catch.
Lockette has 21.3 yards per catch.
Kearse has 15.3 yards per catch.
Baldwin has 11.7 yards per catch.
Statistically it does make sense that shorter catches would be targeted a bit more, but with the way our offense is running it seems that any intelligent coordinator could take one look at this data and know we aren't gonna go deep very often, and if we were they'd know who we are going to with just one glance of the field...
And I feel sorry for Paul Richardson, he was probably so excited to get drafted by the Seahawks and he is targetted on less than 3% of his snaps? Well at least he is getting on the field unlike the guy I thought who'd be even better this year Norwood...
AND FINALLY...
If you include Harvin and Walters Rushing Attempts COMBINED with their Passing Targets to get their total plays / snap you get:
1) Walters = 20.75%
2) Harvin = 20.44%
It seems like Harvin and Walters have IDENTICAL roles in our Offense or this is one heck of a coincidence...
Compared to Lynch:
Lynch = 38.73% (Rushing Attempts)
Lynch = 47.55% (Rushing Attempts + Passing Targets)
Conclusion:
If Lynch is on the field there's about a 50% chance we go to him (that seems a little too low since he's only in on 67% of plays to begin with... and it seems like it should be about 50% for Rushing Attempts not Rushing AND Passing... but otherwise 50% seems like a smart and unpredictable rate to defend against). If Lynch is on the field with either Walters or Harvin than there's on average about a 70% chance that we go to either Lynch or Harvin/Walters.
I'm not sure how often Lynch is on the field at the same time as Harvin or Walters, but it seems like in that configuration the Defense would have a pretty dang easy time knowing what we are going to do. They can stack the box and focus on those 2 players in very short passing plays or for predictable runs.
The X factor is that Russell Wilson is also a crazy good play maker not just a game manager (DUH!) so he is really the key ingredient for getting this kind of predictable offense focused on only two other players to run correctly.
It'd be nice to see Baldwin and Kearse have at least around 10-15% rates, they are so much lower than Walters and Harvin which seems like a flaw in our Offense to me but I'm no expert.
