Lael Collins -- What Are The Chances?

chet380 · May 4, 2015

His contract situation as per CBS.Sports --

Undrafted free agents who sign get a standard three-year contract that pays $435,000 in 2015, $525,000 in 2016 and $615,000 in 2017, provided he makes the 53-man roster each year. UDFA's can also renegotiate their deals after two seasons.

Since he can pick any team that wants him, it would seem to be most likely that he would go to a team that would project to have the cap space to afford the renegotiated contract after two years -- with the money that the Hawks have to spend to keep their elite players, it would appear that they would be out of the running.

IMO, this guy has Walter Jones potential -- 8-10 year Pro Bowler.

Obviously, everything is contingent on him being cleared

vonstout · May 4, 2015

If we let Okung and Irvin walk, I don't see why we wouldn't be in the running. Time will tell. Although we have some big names to resign, we have been successful in managing the cap and we can offer him a good chance at a Super Bowl his rookie year.

Basis4day · May 4, 2015

Is he a better fit for ZBS or Power scheme?

Uncle Si · May 4, 2015

vonstout":3ai057fs said:
If we let Okung and Irvin walk, I don't see why we wouldn't be in the running. Time will tell. Although we have some big names to resign, we have been successful in managing the cap and we can offer him a good chance at a Super Bowl his rookie year.

Why does Okung and Irvin play a role in this?

I think there is a max an undrafted player can make (and its really, really low)

kidhawk · May 4, 2015

Uncle Si":4zy2b3hb said:
vonstout":4zy2b3hb said:

If we let Okung and Irvin walk, I don't see why we wouldn't be in the running. Time will tell. Although we have some big names to resign, we have been successful in managing the cap and we can offer him a good chance at a Super Bowl his rookie year.

Click to expand...

Why does Okung and Irvin play a role in this?

I think there is a max an undrafted player can make (and its really, really low)

There is a cap for undrafted players, but they can renegotiate after 2 years, so a savvy agent will look into each team's cap projections to see what kind of room they'll have to pay the man when he's available to restructure that deal. If certain high dollar players drop off the cap, that would free up space to pay him at that point. I doubt he'd want to play the full 3 years under a rookie deal.

Pandion Haliaetus · May 4, 2015

If his big contract comes after 2 years. Year 3 would be a signing bonus contract. Meaning any significant cap hit would come in 2018.

If that is the case , Seahawks are fine in cap space.

Furthermore, this is all precedent that he actually becomes an elite LT within 2 years.

And honestly any team that signs him really hold rights over him for 4 years. The 3 year UDFA contract and then the erfa tender.

So, realistically I could see him make 5-7m per year 3-4, which is on par with a top 5 pick. Then 7-10 in year 5.

And Seahawks are definitely a candidate. There is a future opportunity for him here on a marquee team that has just shown that it is willing to risks on character red flags. Irvin, Harvin, Clark etc.

kidhawk · May 4, 2015

Pandion Haliaetus":vywr8nln said:
If his big contract comes after 2 years. Year 3 would be a signing bonus contract. Meaning any significant cap hit would come in 2018.

If that is the case , Seahawks are fine in cap space.

Furthermore, this is all precedent that he actually becomes an elite LT within 2 years.

And honestly any team that signs him really hold rights over him for 4 years. The 3 year UDFA contract and then the erfa tender.

So, realistically I could see him make 5-7m per year 3-4, which is on par with a top 5 pick. Then 7-10 in year 5.

And Seahawks are definitely a candidate. There is a future opportunity for him here on a marquee team that has just shown that it is willing to risks on character red flags. Irvin, Harvin, Clark etc.

Everything you state is true, but assuming he's cleared (which is still just an assumption at this point), a player with his level of talent is going to want to go to a team that is going to be up front with him, as I'm sure he will be with them, about future expectations. Obviously no matter where he goes he won't get the money if he doesn't earn it on the field, but as a player, I'm certain he expects to be able to prove it over the course of his first 2 seasons.

Part of the negotiations will entail each side asking for certain future concessions, and the team that gives him the best opportunities to earn that top dollar the quickest will likely get his services.

Donn2390 · May 4, 2015

He is saying he will forgo the NFL this year and enter the draft next year so that he can be paid the money he deserves.
Waiting a year will be worth millions to him, I don't expect him to settle for peanuts, unless for some reason he won't be allowed to sit out the year and enter the next draft.?????

Kamcussion · May 4, 2015

Seems to be a run first interior prospect or RT in the next level.. A liability is pass protection..

If the people who want him are the same people who are upset with Russell running for his life.. That would be pretty hilarious.

mikeak · May 4, 2015

Here is how the negotiation will go.

You promise to extend him after 2 years if he plays X percentage of snaps or other stats they come up with? The extension will be somewhere in the top 25% of pay for this position based on reaching these numbers.

Say yes or no

Any team can make cap space for one guy. I would certainly avoid teams in cap hell such as the Saints but in general teams can make room.

If I were him I focus on a place where I can have a big impact. I don't think Seattle will be a place he can get the numbers he wants to push for a big contract after 2 years...... I hope I am wrong

mikeak · May 4, 2015

Donn2390":1b4oce89 said:
He is saying he will forgo the NFL this year and enter the draft next year so that he can be paid the money he deserves.
Waiting a year will be worth millions to him, I don't expect him to settle for peanuts, unless for some reason he won't be allowed to sit out the year and enter the next draft.?????

1) NFL has already said he can't do it. If he got drafted and didn't sign he could do it

2) Going UDFA is probably better if he becomes a star / solid player. It allows an extension after year 2. The option would be as you say sit out a year (if he was allowed) then play under a rookie deal for a minimum of 3 years. Sure he would make more money under that first contract but under a UDFA he would be eligible for the big contracts after two years.

Overall he may make more money this way IF and only IF he stays healthy and pans out. Huge risk and I am going to maintain that this wasn't handled properly but that is a separate discussion

ctrcat · May 4, 2015

The Panthers will have an estimated $70 million in cap space next year, albeit before the Newton and Kuechly contracts. His best friend is OG Trai Turner and the opportunity to play LT is there. "Word" is there is still mutual interest. If another team overcomes these odds then they deserve kudos and the Panthers deserve a kick in the nuts. All hypothetical at this point.

DavidSeven · May 4, 2015

I think too many things can change with each team's cap projections in 2-3 years for that to be the primary basis of his decision. He would probably be wise to choose a team where (A) he's fairly assured of starting, and (B) they run the ball enough to highlight his strengths as a finisher.

Seattle obviously has an opening at LG, but OT is where the money is made, so he may prefer to go to a team with an obvious opening there.

Donn2390 · May 4, 2015

mikeak":bmkxjer7 said:
Donn2390":bmkxjer7 said:

He is saying he will forgo the NFL this year and enter the draft next year so that he can be paid the money he deserves.
Waiting a year will be worth millions to him, I don't expect him to settle for peanuts, unless for some reason he won't be allowed to sit out the year and enter the next draft.?????

Click to expand...

1) NFL has already said he can't do it. If he got drafted and didn't sign he could do it

2) Going UDFA is probably better if he becomes a star / solid player. It allows an extension after year 2. The option would be as you say sit out a year (if he was allowed) then play under a rookie deal for a minimum of 3 years. Sure he would make more money under that first contract but under a UDFA he would be eligible for the big contracts after two years.

Overall he may make more money this way IF and only IF he stays healthy and pans out. Huge risk and I am going to maintain that this wasn't handled properly but that is a separate discussion

Yes, I just saw that he can't enter the draft next year. I'm all for going after him now....

chet380 · May 4, 2015

The kid's agent is the key -- since the money is the same wherever he goes, if he can be persuaded that the Hawks offer the best prospects for the kid's future - OL coaching (Cable!!), a productive offensive scheme (2 SB appearances), lots of TV exposure and most importantly, that the Hawks can be trusted to renegotiate after two years on the basis of their pre-signing assurances, then the Hawks might be in the running.

What are the chances that some of the other teams make some kind of under-the-table deal with the agent personally?

Basis4day · May 4, 2015

chet380":dpz91cy3 said:
What are the chances that some of the other teams make some kind of under-the-table deal with the agent personally?

Like what? I don't really see a reason for that. Whatever contract this guy potentially gets will be extra scrutinized as it's an unprecedented situation.

ctrcat · May 4, 2015

http://m.fox8live.com/wvuefox8/db_34466 ... d=tVlYtlsX

Met with Rex Ryan tonight. Gotta say pretty slick and an A for effort for Rex. Agent has talked to all 32 teams. Multiple visits may happen as well. I still say the Panthers depth chart and playing with his best friend will be tough to beat, as will the hometown Saints.

Scottemojo · May 4, 2015

Why some team didn't just throw a 7th rounder at him I have no idea.

Cyrus12 · May 4, 2015

...or he might be on the bottom bunk of Rae Caruth's cell....

Hawkfan77 · May 4, 2015

Scottemojo":2nsd433z said:
Why some team didn't just throw a 7th rounder at him I have no idea.

This. I don't get it either. Basically no risk and you call his bluff.

Lael Collins -- What Are The Chances?

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