The myth of overpaying for a QB

There's been a myth going on around here that Russell Wilson getting a huge contract would hurt the team because they couldn't sign other players. I thought now would be a good time to point out that the facts don't back that claim. Quite the opposite in fact.

Not going to concern myself with QB's who just recently got paid. I'm looking at the highest paid QB's who've played for a few years since their big payday. What did getting paid so much do to their teams chances to win?

Peyton Manning. Manning has always been one of the most highly paid QB's in the league. What did paying hims so much get the Colts and Broncos in return? In the 10 years before drafting Manning, the Colts were in the playoffs 2 years, going 2-2. With Manning at the helm, the Colts went to the playoffs 11 of the next 13 years with Manning. After signing him to a $98M contract, they never missed the playoffs again. The went 1-1 in Super Bowl appearances. when he got to Denver, they had been to the playoffs once in 6 years. Since Manning arrived, they've been to the playoffs all three years, going 2-3 with one Super Bowl ass whooping.

Paying Manning a butt ton of money spelled huge success for both franchises.

Tom Brady. Brady's success with the Pats early on doesn't count as he wasn't being highly paid. Even after all those rings and MVP honors, he wasn't being paid an elite QB salary. Not until 2010 did he finally get a big payday. What happened then? Over the next 4 years, the Pats went to the playoffs every single year, going 7-3 and went 1-1 in two Super Bowl appearances. In the 4 years prior, when Brady wasn't getting top dollar, they went to the playoffs 3 of 4 years, going 2-3 with 1 Super Bowl loss. In Brady's first four years, under a 6th round contract for the most part, the Patriots went to the playoffs 2 out of those 4 years, going 6-0 with 2 Super Bowl wins.

Paying Brady big bucks did nothing to stop the Patriots winning ways.

Aaron Rodgers. In 2013 Rodgers became the highest paid player in the NFL. Did it hamstring the Packers? No. they've been a perennial playoff team since 1993. Whle paying Rodgers a huge chunk of their salary cap the Packers still went to the playoffs both years, going 1-2 and coming within a miracle win by Seattle of being in the Super Bowl.

And prior to Rodgers, the Packers were paying Bret Favre. In 2001 Favre became the first $100 Million Dollar Man. How did the Packers do after they "wrecked their cap" as some would argue, paying Favre so much money they "couldn't afford to keep their best players"? They went to the playoffs 5 of the next 7 years, going 3-5, coming within an overtime loss of the Super Bowl.

Paying any ole QB a butt ton of money can crush a franchise if the QB's play isn't worth elite money. But paying elite QB's a butt ton of money doesn't crush a franchise, it guarantees years of success.

You just picked out the 3-4 QB's that make a lot and play on good teams. For context, here's the top paid QB's of 2014

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/02/nfl-qu ... att-schaub

5 of the top 10 didn't even make the playoffs last year, another 3 got bounced in the first round. Only Rodgers made it to the conference championship.

Don't get me wrong, I do think if you have an elite/franchise QB you have to pay him. But that doesn't guarantee anything other than you'll be more competitive than the teams that don't.

Sgt. Largent":2nxrdpc9 said:

You just picked out the 3-4 QB's that make a lot and play on good teams. For context, here's the top paid QB's of 2014

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/02/nfl-qu ... att-schaub

5 of the top 10 didn't even make the playoffs last year, another 3 got bounced in the first round. Only Rodgers made it to the conference championship.

Don't get me wrong, I do think if you have an elite/franchise QB you have to pay him. But that doesn't guarantee anything other than you'll be more competitive than the teams that don't.

Click to expand...

No, you just contradicted the entire argument. The argument is that if you pay a QB a huge amount of money you can't afford to field a good team.

The fact you just admitted those players have good teams just proved my point. Paying them big bucks doesn't mean you can't win.

You seem to be making the mistake of defining a QB by his salary. If he doesn't make his team win, he's either not elite or he's saddled with a crap front office that can't build a team around him.

Since I've just shown you that good FO's can and DO build good teams around QB's whom they pay a butt ton of money to, it's irrelevant how many QB's you point to that aren't on winning teams. The argument is that the very act of making RW the highest paid player on the team will wreck the Seahawks, that's he's "not worth more than the team".

When the truth is, actually, he IS.

Those teams above didn't "have good teams" until they signed their elite QB. Whether they went on to pay those players a butt ton of money or not, it didn't suddenly stop them from "having a good team".

Having an elite QB is what MADE THEM A GOOD TEAM.

SalishHawkFan":3vxw3wfm said:

Sgt. Largent":3vxw3wfm said:

You just picked out the 3-4 QB's that make a lot and play on good teams. For context, here's the top paid QB's of 2014

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/02/nfl-qu ... att-schaub

5 of the top 10 didn't even make the playoffs last year, another 3 got bounced in the first round. Only Rodgers made it to the conference championship.

Don't get me wrong, I do think if you have an elite/franchise QB you have to pay him. But that doesn't guarantee anything other than you'll be more competitive than the teams that don't.

Click to expand...

No, you just contradicted the entire argument. The argument is that if you pay a QB a huge amount of money you can't afford to field a good team.

The fact you just admitted those players have good teams just proved my point. Paying them big bucks doesn't mean you can't win.

You seem to be making the mistake of defining a QB by his salary. If he doesn't make his team win, he's either not elite or he's saddled with a crap front office that can't build a team around him.

Since I've just shown you that good FO's can and DO build good teams around QB's whom they pay a butt ton of money to, it's irrelevant how many QB's you point to that aren't on winning teams. The argument is that the very act of making RW the highest paid player on the team will wreck the Seahawks, that's he's "not worth more than the team".

When the truth is, actually, he IS.

Those teams above didn't "have good teams" until they signed their elite QB. Whether they went on to pay those players a butt ton of money or not, it didn't suddenly stop them from "having a good team".

Having an elite QB is what MADE THEM A GOOD TEAM.

Click to expand...

Having an elite QB is NOT what makes a good team. Sure, they are great building blocks, but other pieces are needed in order for the team to be successful. The fact is when you sign a QB to a large contract you lose some flexibility, and you have to make some painful decisions to keep "your guy". Only 5 of the top 10 paid QB's had a winning record this season, that is not exactly a ringing endorsement. In the end the 16th highest paid QB in the NFL (Brady), and Wilson, one of the lowest paid starting QB's were battling for the Lombardi. Brady's relatively low salary this season allowed the Patriots to go out and sign Brandon Browner, and Darrelle Revis. The end result was a revamped defense, and a balanced team that ended up winning the Super Bowl.

Wilson is ultimately not an elite QB. He's a good QB that makes smart decisions. He has a unique skillset, but he is also very limited in critical areas in the passing game. He is not Brady, nor is he Brees, nor is he Manning despite what some Seahawk fans may think. This team, unlike the Broncos, Packers, etc does not have their identity wrapped in their QB, or their passing game. We are a team that is famous for defense, and a running game that will grind opponents down. Wilson, while an important component was not the defining identity of the Seahawks.

Spin Doctor":2n0njjp1 said:

SalishHawkFan":2n0njjp1 said:

Sgt. Largent":2n0njjp1 said:

You just picked out the 3-4 QB's that make a lot and play on good teams. For context, here's the top paid QB's of 2014

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/02/nfl-qu ... att-schaub

5 of the top 10 didn't even make the playoffs last year, another 3 got bounced in the first round. Only Rodgers made it to the conference championship.

Don't get me wrong, I do think if you have an elite/franchise QB you have to pay him. But that doesn't guarantee anything other than you'll be more competitive than the teams that don't.

Click to expand...

No, you just contradicted the entire argument. The argument is that if you pay a QB a huge amount of money you can't afford to field a good team.

The fact you just admitted those players have good teams just proved my point. Paying them big bucks doesn't mean you can't win.

You seem to be making the mistake of defining a QB by his salary. If he doesn't make his team win, he's either not elite or he's saddled with a crap front office that can't build a team around him.

Since I've just shown you that good FO's can and DO build good teams around QB's whom they pay a butt ton of money to, it's irrelevant how many QB's you point to that aren't on winning teams. The argument is that the very act of making RW the highest paid player on the team will wreck the Seahawks, that's he's "not worth more than the team".

When the truth is, actually, he IS.

Those teams above didn't "have good teams" until they signed their elite QB. Whether they went on to pay those players a butt ton of money or not, it didn't suddenly stop them from "having a good team".

Having an elite QB is what MADE THEM A GOOD TEAM.

Click to expand...

Having an elite QB is NOT what makes a good team. Sure, they are great building blocks, but other pieces are needed in order for the team to be successful. The fact is when you sign a QB to a large contract you lose some flexibility, and you have to make some painful decisions to keep "your guy". Only 5 of the top 10 paid QB's had a winning record this season, that is not exactly a ringing endorsement. In the end the 16th highest paid QB in the NFL (Brady), and Wilson, one of the lowest paid starting QB's were battling for the Lombardi. Brady's relatively low salary this season allowed the Patriots to go out and sign Brandon Browner, and Darrelle Revis. The end result was a revamped defense, and a balanced team that ended up winning the Super Bowl.

Wilson is ultimately not an elite QB. He's a good QB that makes smart decisions. He has a unique skillset, but he is also very limited in critical areas in the passing game. He is not Brady, nor is he Brees, nor is he Manning despite what some Seahawk fans may think. This team, unlike the Broncos, Packers, etc does not have their identity wrapped in their QB, or their passing game. We are a team that is famous for defense, and a running game that will grind opponents down. Wilson, while an important component was not the defining identity of the Seahawks.

Click to expand...

I have to admit you troll at an elite level. Color me impressed sir.


When does training camp start already? My eyes are bleeding from all the doom and gloom concerning Wilson, his contract, eliteness or lack of. And all the Chicken Little ' s up in here like mushrooms after a good rain.

Spin Doctor":105w99jl said:

He is not Brady, nor is he Brees, nor is he Manning despite what some Seahawk fans may think.

Click to expand...

Wilson is not a 12 year vet (Brady), a 14 year vet (Brees), or a 17 year vet(Manning)?

Good detective work, Sherlock.

MizzouHawkGal":3he7sujc said:

Spin Doctor":3he7sujc said:

SalishHawkFan":3he7sujc said:

Sgt. Largent":3he7sujc said:

You just picked out the 3-4 QB's that make a lot and play on good teams. For context, here's the top paid QB's of 2014

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/02/nfl-qu ... att-schaub

5 of the top 10 didn't even make the playoffs last year, another 3 got bounced in the first round. Only Rodgers made it to the conference championship.

Don't get me wrong, I do think if you have an elite/franchise QB you have to pay him. But that doesn't guarantee anything other than you'll be more competitive than the teams that don't.

Click to expand...

No, you just contradicted the entire argument. The argument is that if you pay a QB a huge amount of money you can't afford to field a good team.

The fact you just admitted those players have good teams just proved my point. Paying them big bucks doesn't mean you can't win.

You seem to be making the mistake of defining a QB by his salary. If he doesn't make his team win, he's either not elite or he's saddled with a crap front office that can't build a team around him.

Since I've just shown you that good FO's can and DO build good teams around QB's whom they pay a butt ton of money to, it's irrelevant how many QB's you point to that aren't on winning teams. The argument is that the very act of making RW the highest paid player on the team will wreck the Seahawks, that's he's "not worth more than the team".

When the truth is, actually, he IS.

Those teams above didn't "have good teams" until they signed their elite QB. Whether they went on to pay those players a butt ton of money or not, it didn't suddenly stop them from "having a good team".

Having an elite QB is what MADE THEM A GOOD TEAM.

Click to expand...

Having an elite QB is NOT what makes a good team. Sure, they are great building blocks, but other pieces are needed in order for the team to be successful. The fact is when you sign a QB to a large contract you lose some flexibility, and you have to make some painful decisions to keep "your guy". Only 5 of the top 10 paid QB's had a winning record this season, that is not exactly a ringing endorsement. In the end the 16th highest paid QB in the NFL (Brady), and Wilson, one of the lowest paid starting QB's were battling for the Lombardi. Brady's relatively low salary this season allowed the Patriots to go out and sign Brandon Browner, and Darrelle Revis. The end result was a revamped defense, and a balanced team that ended up winning the Super Bowl.

Wilson is ultimately not an elite QB. He's a good QB that makes smart decisions. He has a unique skillset, but he is also very limited in critical areas in the passing game. He is not Brady, nor is he Brees, nor is he Manning despite what some Seahawk fans may think. This team, unlike the Broncos, Packers, etc does not have their identity wrapped in their QB, or their passing game. We are a team that is famous for defense, and a running game that will grind opponents down. Wilson, while an important component was not the defining identity of the Seahawks.

Click to expand...

I have to admit you troll at an elite level. Color me impressed sir.


When does training camp start already? My eyes are bleeding from all the doom and gloom concerning Wilson, his contract, eliteness or lack of. And all the Chicken Little ' s up in here like mushrooms after a good rain.

Click to expand...

THIS! :th2thumbs:

That's a lot of nice work lately salish
Thanks for the viewpoint

If we pay RW too much, it becomes more difficult to win a championship via retaining fewer players (but certainly not impossible). If we offer him too little, he walks or receives up to several franchise tags while being a distraction of sorts. Thus, it's about striking that balance and that's what this ongoing negotiation is attempting to determine.

What alarms me about those who are disregarding this balance in their willingness to pay him more to get him under contract sooner is what that mindset encourages. Football under the scope of Western culture and free of financial incentive is based upon building teamwork, heightening the level of competition, and ultimately winning. However, in the NFL a championship is more of a luxury because it doesn't matter how many titles a team hoists or how well they play if no one attends their games, watches the televised events, or buys merchandise. No championship team will ever experience this problem but the system itself does allow for it to happen. As a result, the ultimate sell to us fans isn't actual victory, or the optimal chance for victory, but the perception of hope for victory.

A team could pay Russell Wilson an absolutely ridiculous contract and regardless of whether or not that salary makes him beneficial or damaging to a team, it will provide a substantial amount of hope for victory to a significant number of fans and for several years at a minimum. What scares me is that some fans seem to be asking for PC and JS to sell this very same hope to us instead of a greater chance to win more championships. To have that optimal chance, we have to get the single largest player contract we're going to doll out at least mostly right, and doing so might just continue to take a lengthy negotiation full of threats, bluffs, and so much else. There's no reward without risk and surely we would all prefer to continue to experience real wins over the hope for them.

I look at it this way....

We know NOTHING of what's going on in negotiations.
Speculation has turned into rumors, rumors have turned to outrage and handwringing.

I'm going to wait and see what happens before throwing the remote control thru the TV.

Just my 2 cents worth. 8)

So let's write a long winded op that ignores recent facts. Cool story.

Pretty much.

hawxfreak":5u3b2ze6 said:

That's a lot of nice work lately salish
Thanks for the viewpoint

Click to expand...

Thanks. I feel I owe it to the community after my melt down last year. Doing my best.

Teams that paid their QBs the money that RW (supposedly) wants to be paid cannot afford to:
-pay their RBs , what we have committed to ML
-pay their Corners, what we have committed to our corners
-pay their safeties, what we have committed to our safeties (Earl + Kam)
-pay their MLB, what we need to pay one of the top LB in the game ...

Yes, there has been time when RW has help us win games. But, let's be very honest, more often than, we have relied on Lynch, our Defense to keep us in the game, while the offense was struggling.

The bottom line is simple math. We don't have enough money under the cap to pay all these players elite money. Something's got to give.
If RW doesn't get it (again, supposedly), then I have no problem calling him selfish.

joeseahawks":1i7ek45k said:

Teams that paid their QBs the money that RW (supposedly) wants to be paid cannot afford to:
-pay their RBs , what we have committed to ML
-pay their Corners, what we have committed to our corners
-pay their safeties, what we have committed to our safeties (Earl + Kam)
-pay their MLB, what we need to pay one of the top LB in the game ...

Yes, there has been time when RW has help us win games. But, let's be very honest, more often than, we have relied on Lynch, our Defense to keep us in the game, while the offense was struggling.

The bottom line is simple math. We don't have enough money under the cap to pay all these players elite money. Something's got to give.
If RW doesn't get it (again, supposedly), then I have no problem calling him selfish.

Click to expand...

Wilson isn't "selfish" he's just your average, ordinary NFL player. Despite his larger than life persona, he is very much human. He wants to be paid what he thinks he is worth, that not only is bettering your own circumstances, but it is also a sign of respect. Wilson believes in himself, and has a high opinion of himself. He wants to be respected, and to him I get the impression that anything underneath a certain dollar amount is a sign of disrespect. It's a sign that he has proven his doubters wrong, and has carved out a place in the NFL. That contract means more than just dollar signs to Wilson in my opinion.

Spin Doctor":1b3n2x5h said:

Having an elite QB is NOT what makes a good team. Sure, they are great building blocks, but other pieces are needed in order for the team to be successful.

Click to expand...

An elite QB really does make a good team. That's because the truly elite QBs don't really make much more than the simply good QBs. There are two ways in the NFL to have players massively outplaying their contracts. One is drafting well and having productive players on rookie contracts. The other is having an elite QB on a "franchise QB contract" (ie about 15% of the cap). That is the reason the only teams that are perennial championship contenders for a decade or longer have been the teams with elite QBs. Rookie contracts run out after four years; elite QBs don't stop outperforming their contracts until they get old/injured/retired.

joeseahawks":1b3n2x5h said:

Teams that paid their QBs the money that RW (supposedly) wants to be paid cannot afford to:
-pay their RBs , what we have committed to ML
-pay their Corners, what we have committed to our corners
-pay their safeties, what we have committed to our safeties (Earl + Kam)
-pay their MLB, what we need to pay one of the top LB in the game ...

Click to expand...

You're over-estimating how much we would lose by paying Wilson top QB money. A top QB contract is worth about three mid-tier player contracts. Since December, the Seahawks paid KJ Wright, Cliff Avril, and Cary Williams contracts with combined average values just short of $22 million. If we were to lose those three players, it would hurt our defense a bit but we would still be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. If we were to keep those players and let Wilson walk, we'd be the Texans.

It's also much easier to find reasonable cheap options at other positions than at QB. Average QBs like Andy Dalton and Alex Smith who are good enough to lead talented teams to the playoffs but not really be a Super Bowl threat get contracts averaging over $15M per. The journeyman veteran backups (Hoyer, McCown, Cassel, etc.) whose types are available every year and capable of not being complete dumpster fires are making about $5M per, and those guys certainly aren't leading a championship team no matter how loaded the roster might be. It's also nearly impossible to have a championship caliber QB on a rookie contract. Most QBs in the draft need a couple years to develop, and by the time they do, they will be eligible for a new contract. Seahawks fans have been spoiled the last three years as RW is the exception, not the rule for young QBs. Hoping to strike gold with another Wilson in the draft is just not a reasonable expectation. Finding a franchise QB is the hard part; paying him should be the easy part.

Spin Doctor":1b3n2x5h said:

Wilson is ultimately not an elite QB. He's a good QB that makes smart decisions. He has a unique skillset, but he is also very limited in critical areas in the passing game. He is not Brady, nor is he Brees, nor is he Manning despite what some Seahawk fans may think. This team, unlike the Broncos, Packers, etc does not have their identity wrapped in their QB, or their passing game. We are a team that is famous for defense, and a running game that will grind opponents down. Wilson, while an important component was not the defining identity of the Seahawks.

Click to expand...

I disagree with this. Wilson is and has been by far the most important player on the Seahawks. His effect on the running game is far greater than Lynch's effect on the passing game. Lynch is a guy who averaged under 4 YPC for his career before Wilson was drafted. And you can't use the Buffalo excuse because his YPC in Buffalo was actually higher than his YPC in his 1.5 pre-Wilson years in Seattle. Having a QB defenses have to account for gives Lynch a lot of 1-on-1 matchups with defenders who can't tackle him 1-on-1. Put an average QB behind center and defenses will sell out to stop Lynch.

It's also selling RW short to not expect him to continue improving as he has each year in the league. You know who else was not Brady, Brees, or Manning as we know them? Brady, Brees, and Manning in their first three seasons. You can downplay RW's ability all you want, but even his biggest critics would have to admit he's one of the two best QBs under 30 in the league. That's the kind of guy who can lead a championship contender for the next decade.

joeseahawks":1b3n2x5h said:

The bottom line is simple math. We don't have enough money under the cap to pay all these players elite money. Something's got to give.
If RW doesn't get it (again, supposedly), then I have no problem calling him selfish.

Click to expand...

Why would it be selfish for RW to demand a contract worthy of his performance? He is better and younger than guys like Flacco and Cutler. There's a reason that QBs make the most money: it's by far the most important position on the field and you can't realistically contend for championships without one.

No myth involved. It is indeed possible to pay certain Qb's more than they deserve. It is damn near impossible to overpay "elite" Qb's. The real problem is identifying the "elite".

Look, haven't we recently learned that what you pay your players isn't all that important intoday's NFL? Keeping your equipment guys well-compensated is what wins you Super Bowls. Jeez, c'mon people. :roll:

VivaEfrenHerrera":1re33wqn said:

Look, haven't we recently learned that what you pay your players isn't all that important intoday's NFL? Keeping your equipment guys well-compensated is what wins you Super Bowls. Jeez, c'mon people. :roll:

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LOL. Thanks for the humor. This thread needed it. :th2thumbs:

I'm honestly asking you hawk fans this not trying to troll or anything: do you really think wilson has been crucial to your success these past few years? if so, why? (by crucial i mean like REALLY, REALLY important not just important because obviously he's been important)