Give Me Your Playoff Five

Hawk-Lock

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18 of the past 19 seasons, at least five new teams have made the playoffs. Who are your new five? And on the reverse side, which five teams that made it last year won't make the playoffs this year?

New Playoff Teams:

Bills
Giants
Vikings
Chiefs
Saints
Rams

Not Making It This Year:

Bengals
Ravens
Cowboys
Panthers
Lions
Cardinals

EDIT: I came up with 6. Even more change!
 

Hasselbeck

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In: Falcons, Eagles, Dolphins, Vikings, Rams

Out: Panthers, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bengals, Lions
 

SuperMan28

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I got the Giants, Falcons, Rams, Chargers and Chiefs.

Out: Cowboys, Panthers, Cards, Broncos, Bengals
 

Maulbert

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I do not necessarily think this WILL happen, just that if that much turnover occurs, this is what I might expect.

Out: Cardinals, Panthers, Lions, Broncos, Steelers

In: Saints, Falcons, Vikings, Chargers, Dolphins
 

Scottemojo

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In: Jets, Bills, Chiefs, Saints, Chargers

Out :Steelers, Pats, Broncos, Panthers, Bengals.

I don't think the NFC picture changes very much at all.
 

Maulbert

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ctrcat":3uyl12uo said:
For those putting the Saints IN, please read Grantland/Barnwell today. They've won one division title since their stained 2009 season and if this doesn't reek circling the toilet bowl I don't know what to tell you. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-i ... w-orleans/

I just have to say, you're a Panther fan. Not exactly an unbiased observer.
 

Scottemojo

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Maulbert

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ctrcat":1wqcyoa2 said:
The truth hurts sometimes. In this case, if you're a Saints fan.

Not a Saints fan. If I like any team in that division when the Hawks aren't playing them, it's the Falcons. I really pulled for them the year they played Denver in the Super Bowl with Chris Chandler at QB.
 

Seafan

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Not a Panthers fan but kind of shocked at so many dumping them from the playoffs. I know their record wasn't good last year but they seem like a talented team on the rise and they were the best in their division.
 

ctrcat

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^ JMHO but I think many play fantasy and/or overlook defense in the analysis. Only time will tell but the Panthers may have a top 5 D while the rest of the division may not have a top 20.
 

SalishHawkFan

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Looking at every playoff team the past three seasons, this is what I am guessing:
Seattle has been #1 DVOA three years running. Not sustainable, but they're making the playoffs.
Denver has been right on Seattles heels all three years. They're going to the playoffs.
Carolina had one good season squeezed between two poor ones. They're gone.
Dallas just had its fluke good year. They're gone.
Baltimore was back in after one off year. They're going to make the playoffs.
Arizona was crap 2012. Was 10th, but not great 2013. Was crap 2014 even before losing Palmer. They are not going to the playoffs.
Detroit barely had crawled out of mediocrity when they lost Suh. No playoffs.
Pittsburgh squeaked out three more wins than their previous two years. They had an easy schedule. No playoffs for them.
Cincinatti, winning records three years straight. Meh DVOA. I think this is the year they miss the playoffs.
Indy In that division? Playoffs.
New England We're so used to the Pats making the playoffs, but I think this becomes a down year for them. Haha, in that division? Playoffs.
Green Bay These guys are like the Terminator. They'll be back.

Who's new? well let's see, I've got six teams not making it. Buffalo is always supposed to be good and they always are not good. Did they get a QB? Nope.
Miami has a QB and Suh. They've been steadily improving in small baby steps. This is their year.
KC was the worst team three years back, but was impressive the last two years. They'll be back in the playoffs.
Philly hasn't shown they can take the next step, but they have been consistent. They should squeak in from the NFC Least.
New Orleans has Brees. Somebody has to win that division and I think Atlanta's one great year was a fluke.
Everyone seems to think this is the Vikings year. I guess I'll jump on their bandwagon for no good reason.
And because every year they seem like they've got to be able to win, but every year they are the best team per DVOA with a losing record in the NFL, I'm going with the St. Louis Rams to make the playoffs right before they skip town to L.A. It's my upset special.
 

rideaducati

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SalishHawkFan":1emgcfly said:
Looking at every playoff team the past three seasons, this is what I am guessing:
Seattle has been #1 DVOA three years running. Not sustainable, but they're making the playoffs.
Denver has been right on Seattles heels all three years. They're going to the playoffs.
Carolina had one good season squeezed between two poor ones. They're gone.
Dallas just had its fluke good year. They're gone.
Baltimore was back in after one off year. They're going to make the playoffs.
Arizona was crap 2012. Was 10th, but not great 2013. Was crap 2014 even before losing Palmer. They are not going to the playoffs.
Detroit barely had crawled out of mediocrity when they lost Suh. No playoffs.
Pittsburgh squeaked out three more wins than their previous two years. They had an easy schedule. No playoffs for them.
Cincinatti, winning records three years straight. Meh DVOA. I think this is the year they miss the playoffs.
Indy In that division? Playoffs.
New England We're so used to the Pats making the playoffs, but I think this becomes a down year for them. Haha, in that division? Playoffs.
Green Bay These guys are like the Terminator. They'll be back.

Who's new? well let's see, I've got six teams not making it. Buffalo is always supposed to be good and they always are not good. Did they get a QB? Nope.
Miami has a QB and Suh. They've been steadily improving in small baby steps. This is their year.
KC was the worst team three years back, but was impressive the last two years. They'll be back in the playoffs.
Philly hasn't shown they can take the next step, but they have been consistent. They should squeak in from the NFC Least.
New Orleans has Brees. Somebody has to win that division and I think Atlanta's one great year was a fluke.
Everyone seems to think this is the Vikings year. I guess I'll jump on their bandwagon for no good reason.
And because every year they seem like they've got to be able to win, but every year they are the best team per DVOA with a losing record in the NFL, I'm going with the St. Louis Rams to make the playoffs right before they skip town to L.A. It's my upset special.

I don't see how you can say that KC was "impressive", but the Bills are "not good" when both teams finished with the same record and Buffalo had a much tougher schedule last year. The Chiefs had one good year and in that year they didn't beat a single team that finished the year over .500. They have a tough schedule of AFC and NFC North opponents. KC is not making the playoffs. I think San Diego will take their place.

NFC...............................................AFC
1. Seattle.......................................1. Indianapolis
2. Green Bay.................................2. San Diego
3. Carolina.....................................3. Baltimore
4. Dallas.........................................4. Buffalo
5. Minnesota...................................5. New England
6. Philadelphia................................6. Miami

I guess that would put the Cards and Lions out in the NFC and the Broncos, Bengals and Stealers out of the AFC.
 

Maulbert

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rideaducati":1uvwf7x9 said:
SalishHawkFan":1uvwf7x9 said:
Looking at every playoff team the past three seasons, this is what I am guessing:
Seattle has been #1 DVOA three years running. Not sustainable, but they're making the playoffs.
Denver has been right on Seattles heels all three years. They're going to the playoffs.
Carolina had one good season squeezed between two poor ones. They're gone.
Dallas just had its fluke good year. They're gone.
Baltimore was back in after one off year. They're going to make the playoffs.
Arizona was crap 2012. Was 10th, but not great 2013. Was crap 2014 even before losing Palmer. They are not going to the playoffs.
Detroit barely had crawled out of mediocrity when they lost Suh. No playoffs.
Pittsburgh squeaked out three more wins than their previous two years. They had an easy schedule. No playoffs for them.
Cincinatti, winning records three years straight. Meh DVOA. I think this is the year they miss the playoffs.
Indy In that division? Playoffs.
New England We're so used to the Pats making the playoffs, but I think this becomes a down year for them. Haha, in that division? Playoffs.
Green Bay These guys are like the Terminator. They'll be back.

Who's new? well let's see, I've got six teams not making it. Buffalo is always supposed to be good and they always are not good. Did they get a QB? Nope.
Miami has a QB and Suh. They've been steadily improving in small baby steps. This is their year.
KC was the worst team three years back, but was impressive the last two years. They'll be back in the playoffs.
Philly hasn't shown they can take the next step, but they have been consistent. They should squeak in from the NFC Least.
New Orleans has Brees. Somebody has to win that division and I think Atlanta's one great year was a fluke.
Everyone seems to think this is the Vikings year. I guess I'll jump on their bandwagon for no good reason.
And because every year they seem like they've got to be able to win, but every year they are the best team per DVOA with a losing record in the NFL, I'm going with the St. Louis Rams to make the playoffs right before they skip town to L.A. It's my upset special.

I don't see how you can say that KC was "impressive", but the Bills are "not good" when both teams finished with the same record and Buffalo had a much tougher schedule last year. The Chiefs had one good year and in that year they didn't beat a single team that finished the year over .500. They have a tough schedule of AFC and NFC North opponents. KC is not making the playoffs. I think San Diego will take their place.

NFC...............................................AFC
1. Seattle.......................................1. Indianapolis
2. Green Bay.................................2. San Diego
3. Carolina.....................................3. Baltimore
4. Dallas.........................................4. Buffalo
5. Minnesota...................................5. New England
6. Philadelphia................................6. Miami

I guess that would put the Cards and Lions out in the NFC and the Broncos, Bengals and Stealers out of the AFC.

Plus, KC lost to both Oakland and Tennessee. Who would define that as 'impressive'?
 

kearly

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Risers: Falcons, Minnesota, Rams, Dolphins, Bills, Saints, Texans, Chiefs

Fallers: Panthers, Cowboys, Bengals, Broncos, 49ers

Teams on the move, but not sure which direction: Lions, Eagles, Bucs, Titans, Giants, Chargers, Steelers, Cardinals, Rams

----

2015 makes: Falcons, Saints, Miami, Eagles, Rams

2015 misses: Panthers, Lions, Bengals, Cowboys, Cardinals

I did five because the OP said so, but I think the deck is stacked against having five teams again this year. The top of the AFC feels set in stone to me. The Pats will falter early and the Broncos will falter late, but both should end with 10 wins in bad divisions. Indy is in a terrible division. And the AFC North will be returning THREE playoff teams. I could see a rising team like the Chiefs or Dolphins knocking out the Bengals by a hair, but a team like the Chargers or Texans probably won't have enough to knock off Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

The NFC feels a bit more open outside of Seattle and Green Bay. I feel dirty putting the Rams in the 'make' category, but I think 9 wins probably punches your ticket in the NFC this year. The Rams have more talent than the Cardinals right now and probably equal talent at QB. The Cardinals chances of getting back are resting heavily on the investment they've put in the running game. And even if the Cardinals do run the ball, I suspect it could all be for naught if that defense has them chasing points. That defense completely imploded late in 2014. And this all assumes Palmer stays healthy, which is hardly a given.

The Cowboys O-line + Dez + Romo makes their offense dangerous, but I think they will sorely miss Murray's 2014 performance. Their defense overachieved massively in 2014. If their D regresses, then they are likely doomed to mediocrity just like they were pre-2014.

We might see 3 new playoff teams on the NFC half, but I doubt we'll see five total.
 

Rex

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kearly":141dwst8 said:
I feel dirty putting the Rams in the 'make' category, but I think 9 wins probably punches your ticket in the NFC this year. The Rams have more talent than the Cardinals right now and probably equal talent at QB.

Dirty is good. :th2thumbs:
 

SalishHawkFan

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rideaducati":352pqt99 said:
I don't see how you can say that KC was "impressive", but the Bills are "not good" when both teams finished with the same record and Buffalo had a much tougher schedule last year. The Chiefs had one good year and in that year they didn't beat a single team that finished the year over .500. They have a tough schedule of AFC and NFC North opponents. KC is not making the playoffs. I think San Diego will take their place.
My feeling about the Chiefs vs the Bills was based on looking at DVOA over that period. Last year both teams finished 9-7. Buffalo had a 10.5 DVOA. KC had a 10.4 DVOA. But the year before Buffalo went 6-10 with a -3.3% dvoa while KC was 11-5 with a 17.5% dvoa.

KC has added some weapons, but what had Buffalo done? I see KC as being a more consistent team than Buffalo. Ultimately, the Bills will lose at KC and that gives the nod to the Chiefs IMO.
 

Sarlacc83

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SalishHawkFan":2ragy4r3 said:
rideaducati":2ragy4r3 said:
I don't see how you can say that KC was "impressive", but the Bills are "not good" when both teams finished with the same record and Buffalo had a much tougher schedule last year. The Chiefs had one good year and in that year they didn't beat a single team that finished the year over .500. They have a tough schedule of AFC and NFC North opponents. KC is not making the playoffs. I think San Diego will take their place.
My feeling about the Chiefs vs the Bills was based on looking at DVOA over that period. Last year both teams finished 9-7. Buffalo had a 10.5 DVOA. KC had a 10.4 DVOA. But the year before Buffalo went 6-10 with a -3.3% dvoa while KC was 11-5 with a 17.5% dvoa.

KC has added some weapons, but what had Buffalo done? I see KC as being a more consistent team than Buffalo. Ultimately, the Bills will lose at KC and that gives the nod to the Chiefs IMO.

Bills added Rex Ryan. Potentially huge upgrade for an already dangerous defense. I am not sold on either team but that's the argument you can make.
 
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