SalishHawkFan
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When many people talk about how much a QB is worth, they talk about Super Bowl wins. But that is a stupid metric. Only one QB can win a SB each year. What really defines a QB is how many more wins he brings your team each season, thus enhancing your chances to get to the Super Bowl.
For example:the 49ers had gone 10 straight seasons without winning 10+ games in one year. QB's like Deberg, Snead, Plunkett (who despite his Raider mystique was a career 8-8 QB) led to a steady diet of mediocrity.
Then came Joe Montana.
He became the full time starter in 1981 and the 9ers went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl. Other than the 82 strike shortened season, the 9ers were to never win less than 10 games in any season with Montana at the helm. He was replaced by Steve Young and 49er success continued. In all, not counting the strike season, the 49ers won 10+ games a year for 17 consecutive seasons.
It ended the moment Steve Young stopped being the 9er QB.
The 49ers then went 10 of 12 seasons without a 10+ win year, led by QB's such as Garcia, Smith and Dilfer.
With this in mind, I decided to analyze the current QB's in the league based upon how many wins they average per year and comparing that to the teams they were with and how many wins they averaged in the three seasons before/after said QB joined/left the team. I began my study with the highest paid QBs based on cap hit this year. (salary figures via Football Outsiders)
The information is given in the following format. The Qb. His career average win loss record per season. His average W/L record with his current team. His current teams average W/L record in the 3 seasons before he joined the team. His previous teams avg. W/L record in the three seasons after he left the team.
I made the exception of not including Indianapolis's Suck for Luck season as there was something fishy about that year. They've been 11-5 with Luck. They were 11-5 with Manning.
I also included Bret Favre's stats with Aaron Rodgers. Much like Montana/Young, Rodgers represents a continuation of Green Bays success since signing Favre.
Top 10 QB's By Cap Hit:
Rodgers: 10.87-5.13 entirely with GB. GB preRodgers: 10.67-5.33
(Bret Favre: 9.99-6.01 avg record with GB: 10.24-5.76 GB preFavre: 6.66-9.33)
Matt Ryan: 9.6-6.4 entirely with ATL. ATL pre Ryan: 6.33-9.67
Joe Flacco: 10.29-5.71 entirely with BALT. BALT preFlacco: 8-8
Drew Brees: 9.31-6.69 Avg with NO: 9.73-6.27. NO preBrees: 6.33-9.67 Avg with SD: 8.28-7.72 SD preBrees: 4.67-11.33
Manning 11.19-4.81 Average record with Denver: 12.67-3.33. Denver preManning: 6.67-9.33 Avg record with Indy: 10.85-5.15 Indy preManning: 7-9 Indy post Manning: 11-5 (not counting suck for luck)
Kaepernick: 10.26-5.74 entirely with SF. SF preKap: 9.67-6.33
Cutler: 8.2-7.8 avg with CHI: 8.59-7.41 CHI preCutler: 9.67-6.33 Avg. with Denver: 7.35-8.65 Denver preCutler: 11-5 Denver Post Cutler: 6.67-9.33
Romo: 9.76-6.24 entirely with Dallas. Dallas preRomo: 8.33-7.67
Stafford: 7.27-8.73 entirely with Detroit. Detroit preStafford: 3.33-12.67
Smith 8.69-7.31 Average record with KC: 9.5-6.5 KC preSmith: 6.33-9.67 Avg with SF: 8.11-7.89 SF preSmith: 4.33-11.67 SF postSmith: 10.26-5.74
What we see here (besides that Cutler really does not deserve his money) is that the elite QB's raise their teams win loss record by 4-6 games. Farve was good for 4 extra wins a year and Rodgers has maintained that level. Those two have been the highest paid QBs in the league for most of those years. So it cannot be said that paying a huge salary to a franchise QB will hamstring a teams chances. Franchise QB's are worth every dollar. Identifying a franchise QB is the key, however. Obviously, paying Cutler to bring DOWN the win total for your team is not a good idea.
Meanwhile we see that Peyton Manning was good for an extra 6 wins per year since joining Denver. He was worth about 4 extra wins per year to Indianapolis. Career he is a +5 win QB. Kap is barely a half win extra, but in all fairness to Kap, Smith raised the bar for SF by about 4 wins per year and Kap inched it up a little more. Smith also raises KC's average win total by about 3 games so all in all, he's a +3.5 win QB. Which would seem to put Kap at about a +4, but time will tell. Romo really only elevates Dallas by about 1 win per season. Whereas Stafford elevates Detroit by about 4 wins per season. If only Detroit knew how to build around him. Brees is worth about 4 wins. Flacco, meanwhile has only been worth a couple of extra wins.
all of which tends to agree with the eyeball test.
For those who are curious:
Wilson 12-4 entirely with Seattle. Seattle preWilson: 6.33-9.67
that puts Wilson as about +6 wins per season. Upper elite so far, but small sample size.
Tom Brady is a +5.
worthlessburger is only a +1-2 win QB.
If I had time, I could do a complete analysis for every QB. What this says to me, however, is that the QB really is the most responsible player on the team for the teams success and if you want to be in the playoffs, you judge your QB not by how many Super Bowls he wins, but by how many times he leads you to the playoffs and how much better your team is with him than without him.
For example:the 49ers had gone 10 straight seasons without winning 10+ games in one year. QB's like Deberg, Snead, Plunkett (who despite his Raider mystique was a career 8-8 QB) led to a steady diet of mediocrity.
Then came Joe Montana.
He became the full time starter in 1981 and the 9ers went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl. Other than the 82 strike shortened season, the 9ers were to never win less than 10 games in any season with Montana at the helm. He was replaced by Steve Young and 49er success continued. In all, not counting the strike season, the 49ers won 10+ games a year for 17 consecutive seasons.
It ended the moment Steve Young stopped being the 9er QB.
The 49ers then went 10 of 12 seasons without a 10+ win year, led by QB's such as Garcia, Smith and Dilfer.
With this in mind, I decided to analyze the current QB's in the league based upon how many wins they average per year and comparing that to the teams they were with and how many wins they averaged in the three seasons before/after said QB joined/left the team. I began my study with the highest paid QBs based on cap hit this year. (salary figures via Football Outsiders)
The information is given in the following format. The Qb. His career average win loss record per season. His average W/L record with his current team. His current teams average W/L record in the 3 seasons before he joined the team. His previous teams avg. W/L record in the three seasons after he left the team.
I made the exception of not including Indianapolis's Suck for Luck season as there was something fishy about that year. They've been 11-5 with Luck. They were 11-5 with Manning.
I also included Bret Favre's stats with Aaron Rodgers. Much like Montana/Young, Rodgers represents a continuation of Green Bays success since signing Favre.
Top 10 QB's By Cap Hit:
Rodgers: 10.87-5.13 entirely with GB. GB preRodgers: 10.67-5.33
(Bret Favre: 9.99-6.01 avg record with GB: 10.24-5.76 GB preFavre: 6.66-9.33)
Matt Ryan: 9.6-6.4 entirely with ATL. ATL pre Ryan: 6.33-9.67
Joe Flacco: 10.29-5.71 entirely with BALT. BALT preFlacco: 8-8
Drew Brees: 9.31-6.69 Avg with NO: 9.73-6.27. NO preBrees: 6.33-9.67 Avg with SD: 8.28-7.72 SD preBrees: 4.67-11.33
Manning 11.19-4.81 Average record with Denver: 12.67-3.33. Denver preManning: 6.67-9.33 Avg record with Indy: 10.85-5.15 Indy preManning: 7-9 Indy post Manning: 11-5 (not counting suck for luck)
Kaepernick: 10.26-5.74 entirely with SF. SF preKap: 9.67-6.33
Cutler: 8.2-7.8 avg with CHI: 8.59-7.41 CHI preCutler: 9.67-6.33 Avg. with Denver: 7.35-8.65 Denver preCutler: 11-5 Denver Post Cutler: 6.67-9.33
Romo: 9.76-6.24 entirely with Dallas. Dallas preRomo: 8.33-7.67
Stafford: 7.27-8.73 entirely with Detroit. Detroit preStafford: 3.33-12.67
Smith 8.69-7.31 Average record with KC: 9.5-6.5 KC preSmith: 6.33-9.67 Avg with SF: 8.11-7.89 SF preSmith: 4.33-11.67 SF postSmith: 10.26-5.74
What we see here (besides that Cutler really does not deserve his money) is that the elite QB's raise their teams win loss record by 4-6 games. Farve was good for 4 extra wins a year and Rodgers has maintained that level. Those two have been the highest paid QBs in the league for most of those years. So it cannot be said that paying a huge salary to a franchise QB will hamstring a teams chances. Franchise QB's are worth every dollar. Identifying a franchise QB is the key, however. Obviously, paying Cutler to bring DOWN the win total for your team is not a good idea.
Meanwhile we see that Peyton Manning was good for an extra 6 wins per year since joining Denver. He was worth about 4 extra wins per year to Indianapolis. Career he is a +5 win QB. Kap is barely a half win extra, but in all fairness to Kap, Smith raised the bar for SF by about 4 wins per year and Kap inched it up a little more. Smith also raises KC's average win total by about 3 games so all in all, he's a +3.5 win QB. Which would seem to put Kap at about a +4, but time will tell. Romo really only elevates Dallas by about 1 win per season. Whereas Stafford elevates Detroit by about 4 wins per season. If only Detroit knew how to build around him. Brees is worth about 4 wins. Flacco, meanwhile has only been worth a couple of extra wins.
all of which tends to agree with the eyeball test.
For those who are curious:
Wilson 12-4 entirely with Seattle. Seattle preWilson: 6.33-9.67
that puts Wilson as about +6 wins per season. Upper elite so far, but small sample size.
Tom Brady is a +5.
worthlessburger is only a +1-2 win QB.
If I had time, I could do a complete analysis for every QB. What this says to me, however, is that the QB really is the most responsible player on the team for the teams success and if you want to be in the playoffs, you judge your QB not by how many Super Bowls he wins, but by how many times he leads you to the playoffs and how much better your team is with him than without him.
