NFL Draft grades for the last 10 years

Ive recently been in a discussion with our fans on my board who think that we are one of the worst drafting teams in the NFL. So I found some articles which I can link upon request.

Basically history shows that out of all first round picks. 46% are busts. 2nd round picks. 50% are busts. Which means in the first two rounds you can really only expect your team to find 1 player to contribute. The draft is really a crapshoot a lot of the times. As a comparison I used the Jaguars who have only had 1 player in 20 years of drafting contribute and reach a pro bowl from the first round. The rest you could say are all busts. Anyways, here is an article I found interesting. Im sure you will as well. If you'd like the draft analytics I can post it as well

http://www.sportingnews.com/list/464041 ... ide/312688

I would say that if you take each team and then sort by GM's for them you will see a much clearer picture, teams that have bad Scouts and GM's will have a worst record, or teams that pick a player regardless of the type of system they have which is also a broken Front office since they don't know what the Coach wants to do.

ringless":377b1uws said:

Ive recently been in a discussion with our fans on my board who think that we are one of the worst drafting teams in the NFL. So I found some articles which I can link upon request.

Basically history shows that out of all first round picks. 46% are busts. 2nd round picks. 50% are busts. Which means in the first two rounds you can really only expect your team to find 1 player to contribute. The draft is really a crapshoot a lot of the times. As a comparison I used the Jaguars who have only had 1 player in 20 years of drafting contribute and reach a pro bowl from the first round. The rest you could say are all busts. Anyways, here is an article I found interesting. Im sure you will as well. If you'd like the draft analytics I can post it as well

http://www.sportingnews.com/list/464041 ... ide/312688

Click to expand...

Not making the pro bowl = bust to you? That seems like a high standard.

chris98251":1qu2mnec said:

I would say that if you take each team and then sort by GM's for them you will see a much clearer picture, teams that have bad Scouts and GM's will have a worst record, or teams that pick a player regardless of the type of system they have which is also a broken Front office since they don't know what the Coach wants to do.

Click to expand...

Disagree. I think what Ringless is touching on, which is correct, is that the draft is largely a crapshoot. I think we have a bad habit of confusing lucky and unlucky streaks with talent and magical insight.

It's not like just the Browns and Colts were wrong about Trent Richardson or just the Seahawks were wrong about Curry; EVERYONE was.

Same story with Sherman. If ANYONE had any idea he'd end up as the best CB in the NFL he'd have been a top 5 pick. Instead, he went around where he was projected to go, because nobody knew.

Popeyejones":2m7yyale said:

chris98251":2m7yyale said:

I would say that if you take each team and then sort by GM's for them you will see a much clearer picture, teams that have bad Scouts and GM's will have a worst record, or teams that pick a player regardless of the type of system they have which is also a broken Front office since they don't know what the Coach wants to do.

Click to expand...

Disagree. I think what Ringless is touching on, which is correct, is that the draft is largely a crapshoot. I think we have a bad habit of confusing lucky and unlucky streaks with talent and magical insight.

It's not like just the Browns and Colts were wrong about Trent Richardson or just the Seahawks were wrong about Curry; EVERYONE was.

Same story with Sherman. If ANYONE had any idea he'd end up as the best CB in the NFL he'd have been a top 5 pick. Instead, he went around where he was projected to go, because nobody knew.

Click to expand...

Thank you, that is what I was touching on.

Here are some draft analytics as well that show even show a 1st round pick is only a player who works out half the time. I think expectations vs reality are very different things. Its easy for fan bases to get upset about missing a first round pick. But about 15-16 teams do every year. A lot higher than people would think

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology408_1.php

Popeyejones":2ht68po0 said:

chris98251":2ht68po0 said:

I would say that if you take each team and then sort by GM's for them you will see a much clearer picture, teams that have bad Scouts and GM's will have a worst record, or teams that pick a player regardless of the type of system they have which is also a broken Front office since they don't know what the Coach wants to do.

Click to expand...

Disagree. I think what Ringless is touching on, which is correct, is that the draft is largely a crapshoot. I think we have a bad habit of confusing lucky and unlucky streaks with talent and magical insight.

It's not like just the Browns and Colts were wrong about Trent Richardson or just the Seahawks were wrong about Curry; EVERYONE was.

Same story with Sherman. If ANYONE had any idea he'd end up as the best CB in the NFL he'd have been a top 5 pick. Instead, he went around where he was projected to go, because nobody knew.

Click to expand...

It is gambling to an extent, but it seems like the front offices that do a better job of playing at the margins seem to do better overall. The teams that know what they want to do and find the players they think have a higher probability of fitting their way of doing things seem to get a little ahead. I've never gotten hyped about draft picks nor do I have strong opinions about players when they get drafted; all the potential in the world doesn't mean anything if the player doesn't fit in, can't process the NFL game, gets injured, etc. Potential is what defines draft position, and it's really a subjective thing in itself.

What might be interesting is to see an analysis of downs played (and maybe things like Pro Bowl/All Pro achievements and stats) by draft position. You'd probably have to break it down by position for it to be more meaningful. It's hard to quantify what makes a player a "success", but I'd say if a player is on the field most of the time year after year they were probably a success.

^^^ yeah, point taken. Downs played probably tips too far in the other direction though, just because first and second round picks generally get to keep getting downs even when they're not worth them. Richardson is a good example of that too: three years of starter carries whereas if he were a day three pick he probably would have never started a game in the first place.

IMO good GMs 1) maximize their chances by accumulating future picks and playing the comp game, and 2) only rarely participate at the top of the FA market (if ever) and fill in holes with folks who fell through at the end of the market. It's a much easier strategy to use for maintaining succes, but I think you can build with it too. Not that it always works, but all the stats seem to suggest it's the best way to improve one's odds.