Everyone,
This is my final AFC Playoff Picture for the final week (week 17). If you are interested in the NFC picture and how it relates to the Seahawks, you can find my NFC thread in Net Nation or go HERE.
Well that was an interesting game on Monday Night and of course Denver won which means that very little was wrapped up. Just like my NFC threads, I use the following symbols: * means that home field has been clinched, z means a first round bye as been clinched, y means the division has been clinched, x means a playoff berth of any sort has been clinched, and finally e means the team is eliminated. You will sometimes see a number by a symbol. That number means a specific numeric seed has been clinched, and sometimes you see a "locked" notation which means that the playoff berth can not be improved in any way. So with that, here we go division by division starting with the AFC East (perhaps the easiest division to analyze)
AFC East
New England (z) 12-3 (9-2 conf) Remaining Game: @Miami
NY Jets 10-5 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: @Buffalo
Buffalo (e) 7-8 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: NY Jets
Miami (e) 5-10 (3-8 conf) Remaining Game: New England
New England is pretty easy to read and given who the play it would take a near miracle for them *not* to get home field as we shall see. The team of interest is the New York Jets who currently have the #6 seed and finally (thanks to a Steelers loss) control their own destiny.
Clinching Scenarios: There are three clinching scenarios, one for the Patriots and two for the Jets.
The Patriots clinch home field with:
A win (or tie) OR A Denver loss (or tie) Denver is the only team that can catch New England and have the tiebreak against the Patriots. This scenario stops that from happening.
The New York Jets can clinch a playoff berth but to do so they have to prevent Pittsburgh from muscling them out. If the Jets go make it, it will almost certainly be as the sixth seed unless Denver is the other wildcard with the same record. That seems unlikely.
The NY Jets can clinch the number five seed with:
A win AND A Denver loss AND A Kansas City win Why? This combination would insure that KC (and not Denver) wins the AFC West forcing Denver with an 11-5 record into the wildcard hunt with an 11-5 NY Jets Team. The Jets would win the tiebreak based on conference record, 8-4 vs 7-5. No other teams would reach 11 wins and enter the WC picture.
The Jets can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win (or tie) OR A Pittsburgh loss (or tie) The only team that can knock the Jets out of the playoffs at this stage is Pittsburgh, and this insures that the Jets have a better record than Pittsburgh elevating them to the number six seed (except in the one case above) and eliminating Pittsburgh. Because Denver beat Cincy, Pittsburgh and the NY Jets can no longer co-exist in the playoffs.
Elimination Scenarios: There are three and they really are the simple inverses of the clinching scenarios (i.e. if the clinching scenario doesn't happen next week, it can't happen. Thus I see no point in writing them out.
Now let's move onto a more interesting division, the AFC North:
AFC North
Cincinnati (y-3) 11-4 (8-3 conf) Remaining Game: Baltimore
Pittsburgh 9-6 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: @Cleveland
Baltimore (e) 5-10 (4-7 conf) Remaining Game: @Cincinnati
Cleveland (e) 3-12 (2-9 conf) Remaining Game: Pittsburgh
This division is interesting not only because of it's direct ties with the AFC West and East in terms of playoff pictures, but that it also even has an effect on the AFC South which one might not expect (and I'll explain later in the AFC South). The picture for the AFC North teams themselves is fairly clear cut, and that picture is fairly positive for Cincinnati and pretty grim for Pittsburgh. It is worth noting that Cincy has already clinched the division and easily at least the number three seed (look at the AFC South and you'll see why). Cincy can not catch New England for home field any longer, but does have an outside shot at a first week bye. Pittsburgh has to win just to make the playoffs and even then will need help.
Clinching Scenarios: There are only two in this division, one for Cincinnati and one for Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati can cinch a first round bye with any ONE of the following:
1. A win + Denver loss (or tie) This insures CIN has a better record than DEN
2. A tie + Denver loss see above
3. A Denver loss + Kansas City win In this case Kansas City wins the AFC West and Kansas City can at best TIE Cincinnati's record, and Cincinnati wins the tiebreak on KC. This would result in Cincinnati getting the #2 seed and the first week bye.
Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff spot (it can ONLY be the #6 seed) with:
A win AND A NY Jets loss This would put Pittsburgh and the NY Jets back into a 10-6 tie, and Pittsburgh has the tiebreak on the NY Jets in that case. This would eliminate the Jets and is inverse scenario of the Jets clinching a playoff spot. That is if the Jets make the playoffs, the Steelers are eliminated and vice versa.
Elimination Scenarios: There are two. As already discussed, Pittsburgh and the Jets have mutually exclusive (and indeed inverse) clinching scenarios and doesn't really need to be discussed further. The one for Cincinnati boils down surprisingly neatly:
Cincinnati is eliminated from a first round bye with:
A Denver win If you look at the clinching scenario for Cincinnati above, you see that ALL of the become impossible if Denver wins. If Denver wins, Cincinnati can at best maintain a tie, and Denver wins the head to head tiebreak.
Speaking of Denver, let's move on to the AFC West.
AFC West
Denver (x) 11-4 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: San Diego
Kansas City (x) 10-5 (9-2 conf) Remaining Game: Oakland
Oakland (e) 7-8 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: @Kansas City
San Diego (e) 4-11 (3-8 conf) Remaining Game: @Denver
I wouldn't have thought so a month ago, but this division is going to come down to the wire, and Kansas City is one of three teams (Seattle and Pittsburgh being the other two) that no one wants to face right now [this last week not withstanding]. In fact KC in on a massive 9 game winning streak tear and if Denver stumbles even a little, they could lose what was once thought to be a shoo-in for the division crown. Denver is still very much in the driver's seat, though, as we shall see. It is worth noting that while Denver has a better record, Kansas City is assured of a higher seed (no worse than the fifth seed). That's because if KC doesn't win the division, they win tiebreaks with both the NY Jets AND Pittsburgh assuring them of the higher seed.
Clinching Scenarios: There are five clinching scenarios, three for Denver and two for KC (and at least two of them are mutual inverses for what should be obvious reasons). Here they are:
Denver clinches a first week bye (and obviously the division) with any ONE of the following:
1. A win This puts Denver out of reach of both KC and Cincinnati
2. A tie + Cincinnati loss (or tie) see above
3. A KC loss (or tie) + Cincinnati loss This insures a division win by the back door with a better record than Cincinnati
Denver clinches the division with:
A win (or tie) OR A KC loss (or tie) This prevents Kansas city from catching Denver.
Denver clinches no worse than the #5 seed with:
A NY Jets loss or tie If Denver were to fail to win the division, this would insure that Denver would have a better record than either the Jets or Steelers thus insuring the top wildcard spot
Kansas City Clinches the division with:
A win AND A Denver loss This is the inverse of the Denver division clinching scenario
Kansas City Clinches no worse than the #5 seed with:
A Win OR A NY Jets loss KC wins head to head tiebreaks with either the Jets or Steelers and this insures that neither can finish with a better record than KC
Elimination Scenarios: As before the elimination scenarios are really just inverses of the clinching scenarios and thus already explained above.
Now onto perhaps the most 'interesting' of the AFC Divisions, the AFC South:
AFC South
Houston 8-7 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: Jacksonville
Indianapolis 7-8 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: Tennessee
Jacksonville (e) 5-10 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: @Houston
Tennessee (e) 3-12 (1-10 conf) Remaining Game: @Indianapolis
It actually looks like this division may well be won by a team with an actual winning record, or at the very least it will take an 8-8 record to win this. I wouldn't have thought so a month ago. While the race looks close, it really isn't. It would take a minor miracle for Houston not to win this division (and the #4 seed) and indeed had Denver lost this last night, Houston would have clinched. Obviously there will only be one scenario here and it will decide which team (Houston or Indianapolis) wins the division, so if one clinches the other is obviously eliminated.
Clinching Scenario: Since it is far more likely and easy to write down, I will only cover the scenario that covers Houston winning the division. I leave as an exercise to write out (if you like) what the Indy clinch would be [it would be the EXACT inverse of the scenario I am about to lay out]. I think you'll see why I say that Houston just about has this sewn up baring an act of a deity.
Houston clinches the AFC South (and eliminates Indy) if ANY ONE of the following happen:
1. A win or tie Gives Houston the best record
2. An Indy loss or tie see above
3. Any ONE of the following teams win: New England, New Orleans, Cincinnati, NY Jets, or San Diego This would guarantee that Houston wins any tiebreak against Indy by Strength of Victory
4. KC Win (or tie) OR Baltimore Win (or tie) as long as both don't tie. This guarantees Houston wins any possible Strength of Schedule tiebreak over Indy
I think it's pretty clear what I meant when I said that Houston has this virtually sewn up. Yes Indy has a chance. You also could win the lottery.
*whew* I hope this helped.
This is my final AFC Playoff Picture for the final week (week 17). If you are interested in the NFC picture and how it relates to the Seahawks, you can find my NFC thread in Net Nation or go HERE.
Well that was an interesting game on Monday Night and of course Denver won which means that very little was wrapped up. Just like my NFC threads, I use the following symbols: * means that home field has been clinched, z means a first round bye as been clinched, y means the division has been clinched, x means a playoff berth of any sort has been clinched, and finally e means the team is eliminated. You will sometimes see a number by a symbol. That number means a specific numeric seed has been clinched, and sometimes you see a "locked" notation which means that the playoff berth can not be improved in any way. So with that, here we go division by division starting with the AFC East (perhaps the easiest division to analyze)
AFC East
New England (z) 12-3 (9-2 conf) Remaining Game: @Miami
NY Jets 10-5 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: @Buffalo
Buffalo (e) 7-8 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: NY Jets
Miami (e) 5-10 (3-8 conf) Remaining Game: New England
New England is pretty easy to read and given who the play it would take a near miracle for them *not* to get home field as we shall see. The team of interest is the New York Jets who currently have the #6 seed and finally (thanks to a Steelers loss) control their own destiny.
Clinching Scenarios: There are three clinching scenarios, one for the Patriots and two for the Jets.
The Patriots clinch home field with:
A win (or tie) OR A Denver loss (or tie) Denver is the only team that can catch New England and have the tiebreak against the Patriots. This scenario stops that from happening.
The New York Jets can clinch a playoff berth but to do so they have to prevent Pittsburgh from muscling them out. If the Jets go make it, it will almost certainly be as the sixth seed unless Denver is the other wildcard with the same record. That seems unlikely.
The NY Jets can clinch the number five seed with:
A win AND A Denver loss AND A Kansas City win Why? This combination would insure that KC (and not Denver) wins the AFC West forcing Denver with an 11-5 record into the wildcard hunt with an 11-5 NY Jets Team. The Jets would win the tiebreak based on conference record, 8-4 vs 7-5. No other teams would reach 11 wins and enter the WC picture.
The Jets can clinch a playoff spot with:
A win (or tie) OR A Pittsburgh loss (or tie) The only team that can knock the Jets out of the playoffs at this stage is Pittsburgh, and this insures that the Jets have a better record than Pittsburgh elevating them to the number six seed (except in the one case above) and eliminating Pittsburgh. Because Denver beat Cincy, Pittsburgh and the NY Jets can no longer co-exist in the playoffs.
Elimination Scenarios: There are three and they really are the simple inverses of the clinching scenarios (i.e. if the clinching scenario doesn't happen next week, it can't happen. Thus I see no point in writing them out.
Now let's move onto a more interesting division, the AFC North:
AFC North
Cincinnati (y-3) 11-4 (8-3 conf) Remaining Game: Baltimore
Pittsburgh 9-6 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: @Cleveland
Baltimore (e) 5-10 (4-7 conf) Remaining Game: @Cincinnati
Cleveland (e) 3-12 (2-9 conf) Remaining Game: Pittsburgh
This division is interesting not only because of it's direct ties with the AFC West and East in terms of playoff pictures, but that it also even has an effect on the AFC South which one might not expect (and I'll explain later in the AFC South). The picture for the AFC North teams themselves is fairly clear cut, and that picture is fairly positive for Cincinnati and pretty grim for Pittsburgh. It is worth noting that Cincy has already clinched the division and easily at least the number three seed (look at the AFC South and you'll see why). Cincy can not catch New England for home field any longer, but does have an outside shot at a first week bye. Pittsburgh has to win just to make the playoffs and even then will need help.
Clinching Scenarios: There are only two in this division, one for Cincinnati and one for Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati can cinch a first round bye with any ONE of the following:
1. A win + Denver loss (or tie) This insures CIN has a better record than DEN
2. A tie + Denver loss see above
3. A Denver loss + Kansas City win In this case Kansas City wins the AFC West and Kansas City can at best TIE Cincinnati's record, and Cincinnati wins the tiebreak on KC. This would result in Cincinnati getting the #2 seed and the first week bye.
Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff spot (it can ONLY be the #6 seed) with:
A win AND A NY Jets loss This would put Pittsburgh and the NY Jets back into a 10-6 tie, and Pittsburgh has the tiebreak on the NY Jets in that case. This would eliminate the Jets and is inverse scenario of the Jets clinching a playoff spot. That is if the Jets make the playoffs, the Steelers are eliminated and vice versa.
Elimination Scenarios: There are two. As already discussed, Pittsburgh and the Jets have mutually exclusive (and indeed inverse) clinching scenarios and doesn't really need to be discussed further. The one for Cincinnati boils down surprisingly neatly:
Cincinnati is eliminated from a first round bye with:
A Denver win If you look at the clinching scenario for Cincinnati above, you see that ALL of the become impossible if Denver wins. If Denver wins, Cincinnati can at best maintain a tie, and Denver wins the head to head tiebreak.
Speaking of Denver, let's move on to the AFC West.
AFC West
Denver (x) 11-4 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: San Diego
Kansas City (x) 10-5 (9-2 conf) Remaining Game: Oakland
Oakland (e) 7-8 (7-4 conf) Remaining Game: @Kansas City
San Diego (e) 4-11 (3-8 conf) Remaining Game: @Denver
I wouldn't have thought so a month ago, but this division is going to come down to the wire, and Kansas City is one of three teams (Seattle and Pittsburgh being the other two) that no one wants to face right now [this last week not withstanding]. In fact KC in on a massive 9 game winning streak tear and if Denver stumbles even a little, they could lose what was once thought to be a shoo-in for the division crown. Denver is still very much in the driver's seat, though, as we shall see. It is worth noting that while Denver has a better record, Kansas City is assured of a higher seed (no worse than the fifth seed). That's because if KC doesn't win the division, they win tiebreaks with both the NY Jets AND Pittsburgh assuring them of the higher seed.
Clinching Scenarios: There are five clinching scenarios, three for Denver and two for KC (and at least two of them are mutual inverses for what should be obvious reasons). Here they are:
Denver clinches a first week bye (and obviously the division) with any ONE of the following:
1. A win This puts Denver out of reach of both KC and Cincinnati
2. A tie + Cincinnati loss (or tie) see above
3. A KC loss (or tie) + Cincinnati loss This insures a division win by the back door with a better record than Cincinnati
Denver clinches the division with:
A win (or tie) OR A KC loss (or tie) This prevents Kansas city from catching Denver.
Denver clinches no worse than the #5 seed with:
A NY Jets loss or tie If Denver were to fail to win the division, this would insure that Denver would have a better record than either the Jets or Steelers thus insuring the top wildcard spot
Kansas City Clinches the division with:
A win AND A Denver loss This is the inverse of the Denver division clinching scenario
Kansas City Clinches no worse than the #5 seed with:
A Win OR A NY Jets loss KC wins head to head tiebreaks with either the Jets or Steelers and this insures that neither can finish with a better record than KC
Elimination Scenarios: As before the elimination scenarios are really just inverses of the clinching scenarios and thus already explained above.
Now onto perhaps the most 'interesting' of the AFC Divisions, the AFC South:
AFC South
Houston 8-7 (6-5 conf) Remaining Game: Jacksonville
Indianapolis 7-8 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: Tennessee
Jacksonville (e) 5-10 (5-6 conf) Remaining Game: @Houston
Tennessee (e) 3-12 (1-10 conf) Remaining Game: @Indianapolis
It actually looks like this division may well be won by a team with an actual winning record, or at the very least it will take an 8-8 record to win this. I wouldn't have thought so a month ago. While the race looks close, it really isn't. It would take a minor miracle for Houston not to win this division (and the #4 seed) and indeed had Denver lost this last night, Houston would have clinched. Obviously there will only be one scenario here and it will decide which team (Houston or Indianapolis) wins the division, so if one clinches the other is obviously eliminated.
Clinching Scenario: Since it is far more likely and easy to write down, I will only cover the scenario that covers Houston winning the division. I leave as an exercise to write out (if you like) what the Indy clinch would be [it would be the EXACT inverse of the scenario I am about to lay out]. I think you'll see why I say that Houston just about has this sewn up baring an act of a deity.
Houston clinches the AFC South (and eliminates Indy) if ANY ONE of the following happen:
1. A win or tie Gives Houston the best record
2. An Indy loss or tie see above
3. Any ONE of the following teams win: New England, New Orleans, Cincinnati, NY Jets, or San Diego This would guarantee that Houston wins any tiebreak against Indy by Strength of Victory
4. KC Win (or tie) OR Baltimore Win (or tie) as long as both don't tie. This guarantees Houston wins any possible Strength of Schedule tiebreak over Indy
I think it's pretty clear what I meant when I said that Houston has this virtually sewn up. Yes Indy has a chance. You also could win the lottery.
*whew* I hope this helped.
