LOL @ Jets

ivotuk

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Jets owner Woody Johnson laments not drafting Russell Wilson

Johnson was referring to the infamous 2012 draft, when the Jets whiffed on everybody, not just Wilson. They made eight picks that year, none of which remain on the roster. Just brutal.

"Probably not our best effort," Johnson said in a rather stinging indictment of the old scouting department.

That was two regimes ago, when Mike Tannenbaum was the general manager and Terry Bradway was the personnel guru.

Bradway lobbied hard for Wilson, but the Jets already had set their path at quarterback. A month before the draft, they signed Mark Sanchez to a contract extension and traded for Tim Tebow -- two moves that contributed to Tannenbaum's demise.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/ ... ell-wilson
 

Seahawk_Dan

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Just to be sure I did look up their 2012 draft and I am still shocked that not one of those players remain on their roster today. That is just... Pathetic and sad doesn't even describe it.
 

Hawks46

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That's a brutal draft, but to be fair, there's probably about 25 or so other teams that are lamenting not drafting Wilson in the 2nd round right now. Hind sight is 20/20.
 

pehawk

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Jets are in the right direction now though. Bowles is legit.

I even believe he could turn Geno around.
 

hawksfansinceday1

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pehawk":2u7xgmnd said:
Jets are in the right direction now though. Bowles is legit.

I even believe he could turn Geno around.
Agree about Bowles though not sure he can turn Geno into a real NFL QB. We may soon find out if he can though.
 

Popeyejones

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Hawks46":1vs3s6z6 said:
That's a brutal draft, but to be fair, there's probably about 25 or so other teams that are lamenting not drafting Wilson in the 2nd round right now. Hind sight is 20/20.

100% agreed.

It's easy to laugh now, but the Seahawks didn't take Wilson in the 2nd round either. Schneider wanted to but Carroll didn't like Wilson enough for that.

Wagner is a good player and Irvin is decent, but if the Hawks actually knew more than everyone else they obviously wouldn't have taken these guys before Wilson.

Heck, as the story goes the only reason the Broncos picked Osweiler instead of Wilson was because Wilson was two years older and they knew the QB they'd be taking would have to sit on the bench behind Manning for awhile. The Eagles were also trying to swing a trade to get ahead of the Hawks to take him, but couldn't find a partner. I mean heck, Wilson was texting with the Eagles throughout the draft.

Point being there's a ton of chance at work in all of this. Laughing at the Jets after the fact when the Seahawks were a trade partner away from still relying on Matt Flynn and Clipboard Jesus doesn't make much sense IMO.
 

pehawk

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(bi)Curious to see back up for the Eagles attempting to trade up over the Seahawks. Not sure why/how Eagles would know Hawks wanted Wilson. Flynn masked their desire, well.

And you're story is wrong. They both wanted Wilson, Pete knew he'd still be there in the 3Rd. Schneider didn’t want to risk it. That was the discussion.
 

Popeyejones

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pehawk":2ad2fb62 said:
(bi)Curious to see back up for the Eagles attempting to trade up over the Seahawks. Not sure why/how Eagles would know Hawks wanted Wilson. Flynn masked their desire, well.

Oh, yeah, thanks for the correction. Just checked and the trade story was that they pulled out of a trade for Kaepernick when he was Alex Smith's backup because they planned to draft Wllson, not that they tried to trade up for Wilson. Duly noted.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-foo ... mpionships

pehawk":2ad2fb62 said:
And you're story is wrong. They both wanted Wilson, Pete knew he'd still be there in the 3Rd. Schneider didn’t want to risk it. That was the discussion.

As for this one, any story that involves a person knowing what 31 other people are privately thinking is just a load of hooey. I don't buy that for a second, nor should anyone else.

If PC passed on a franchise changing QB because he believed he knew what 31 other people were privately thinking then he's an idiot, and I don't think he's an idiot.

If you really think this is possible try saddling up to a poker table with 31 professional poker players and repeatedly going all in based on the belief that you know exactly what they're all thinking, and you'll be disabused of the idea really quickly.

Heck, bet your life on even knowing what your wife is always thinking, who you spend every day with, and you'll be dead in 48 hours.

No way, no how. PC isn't that stupid.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... ell-wilson
 

Sterling Archer

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Popeyejones":1czd8ltz said:
As for this one, any story that involves a person knowing what 31 other people are privately thinking is just a load of hooey. I don't buy that for a second, nor should anyone else.

If PC passed on a franchise changing QB because he believed he knew what 31 other people were privately thinking then he's an idiot, and I don't think he's an idiot.

If you really think this is possible try saddling up to a poker table with 31 professional poker players and repeatedly going all in based on the belief that you know exactly what they're all thinking, and you'll be disabused of the idea really quickly.

Heck, bet your life on even knowing what your wife is always thinking, who you spend every day with, and you'll be dead in 48 hours.

No way, no how. PC isn't that stupid.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... ell-wilson

Except that this is what happens literally every draft. The whole thing is about speculation regarding when a particular player is going to go. And all the information that came after that draft confirmed that Wilson would have gone late in the third regardless of which team was the one to grab him. That was his value. Seattle accurately gauged that and their gamble paid off. It was a gamble of course, as is all drafting.

You're basically completely arguing Schneider's point here, which is why he was willing to select him higher to ensure they could get him. I highly doubt even Schneider knew he would become as good as he is, just that he was a legitimate potential starter.

Keep thinking the Seahawks lucked into Wilson if it makes you feel better. Although, I don't see why it really matters to you because in this reality, the Seahawks did draft him and he's going to be playing the niners for the next 10 years.
 

Popeyejones

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^^^^ I don't even remotely think the Seahawks lucked into Wilson. That "there's a ton of chance involved in all of this" (as I said earlier) absolutely doesn't mean they lucked into him.

I think we have clear evidence that they valued him more highly than 31 other teams and for that correct prediction they deserve 100% of the spoils.

That said, based on the exact same logic that I'd use to argue that they didn't luck into Wilson, we also must dispel any silly notion that they valued Wilson at a level higher than when they picked him.

For somebody to truly believe that they can get inside the minds of 31 other people and to risk a franchise changing QB on that belief would just be incredibly stupid. To take that risk means that you didn't actually value that guy at a point before when you picked him.

Through this logic, like everone else the Hawks (and PC in particular) was wrong about Wilson. The Hawks were just LESS wrong about him than 31 other teams, and at the end of the day, that's all that matters.
 

pehawk

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Even really, really great contributors have their weaknesses. And we just found Popeyejones' weakness.

The Hawks, and all teams, have a ball park idea of how other teams draft. As well an idea of teams specific needs and an understanding of where in the draft Wilson was going to be selected(it's their job). They also understood which teams would not select Wilson (be it via need or schematic fit). Those two factors alone removed most likely 2/3's of potential competition for Wilson.

It was just a well orchestrated gamble. Ones they lose and win, reguarly. For whatever reason you can only identify the former. And that is your blindspot...your weakness.

It's all good. You're still an outstanding poster. But on such topics you're simply ill equipped to offer analysis.
 

Popeyejones

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^^^^ :lol:

Good point that it's not 31 teams they had to think about. From reports we know it was the Eagles, Redskins, Jets, Packers, and Colts, as well as handful of other teams looking at him as a backup. To that maybe we add in a couple other teams for whom no leaks got out, but that still keeps us down below 10 rather than at 31. Duly noted.

As for the casual condescension of the rest of your post (which is taken in the good spirit it was intended), no, the blind spot is not mine.

Sticking with the poker example, OF COURSE you can have some knowledge and hunches that allow you to guess what 8 (or whatever) other players at the table are thinking (e.g. that guy tends to bluff a lot), but that doesn't change anything.

BY DEFINITION: If you are willing to risk being wrong about what 8 other teams are thinking who are picking between your current pick and your next pick, then no, at the end of the day you do not value a player more than the player you select at your current pick.

We have reports that tell us that John Schneider thought Russell Wilson was more deserving of the 2nd round pick than Wagner, just as we have reports that Carroll disagreed. By taking the risk of another team taking him the Seahawks definitively proved how they valued Wilson.

It's only really funny because Seahawks fans loooooooooove to talk about how Schneider and Carroll buck the trend and don't take players based on common consensus about draft ranking, and instead take guys where they value them, regardless of what everyone else thinks. That this is some magical exception to that insistence strains credulity past the point of taking seriously.
 

JustTheTip

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Popeyejones":s3xqkds5 said:
^^^^ :lol:

Good point that it's not 31 teams they had to think about. From reports we know it was the Eagles, Redskins, Jets, Packers, and Colts, as well as handful of other teams looking at him as a backup. To that maybe we add in a couple other teams for whom no leaks got out, but that still keeps us down below 10 rather than at 31. Duly noted.

As for the casual condescension of the rest of your post (which is taken in the good spirit it was intended), no, the blind spot is not mine.

Sticking with the poker example, OF COURSE you can have some knowledge and hunches that allow you to guess what 8 (or whatever) other players at the table are thinking (e.g. that guy tends to bluff a lot), but that doesn't change anything.

BY DEFINITION: If you are willing to risk being wrong about what 8 other teams are thinking who are picking between your current pick and your next pick, then no, at the end of the day you do not value a player more than the player you select at your current pick.

We have reports that tell us that John Schneider thought Russell Wilson was more deserving of the 2nd round pick than Wagner, just as we have reports that Carroll disagreed. By taking the risk of another team taking him the Seahawks definitively proved how they valued Wilson.

It's only really funny because Seahawks fans loooooooooove to talk about how Schneider and Carroll buck the trend and don't take players based on common consensus about draft ranking, and instead take guys where they value them, regardless of what everyone else thinks. That this is some magical exception to that insistence strains credulity past the point of taking seriously.

This isn't necessarily true as there are at least two major factors you have to consider:
1) How much you value each player
2) How likely it is that each player will be there when you next pick (where that player is on other people's draft boards)

You could have a much higher value on Wilson than Wagner, but know that there is less than 5% chance Wagner will be there at the next pick and better than 90% chance Wilson will be there at the next pick and arrive at a solid decision that Wagner is the better second round pick.
 

pehawk

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Asking Popeyejones to see reason on this is like asking a blind man to describe the color mauve.

Still better than 99% of our Seahawk posters though.
 

Popeyejones

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Bitter --

I see where you're going, but this is a theory of action that only a hardcore rational choice economist could actually believe in, as it presupposes that information asymmetry doesn't regularly and usually intervene. It's funny because even from the artificiality of game theory we know that people are actually smart enough to recognize that they don't live in other people's minds, even when they occasionally try to.

I only alluded to it at the end of the last post, but I think the below is a point worth making again:

When the Seahawks are accused of "reaching" in the draft (which they regularly are) Seahawks fans (rightly IMO) say 1) it doesn't matter where everyone else ranked the player and 2) there's no way to know where everyone else had ranked the player.

I think both of this things are absolutely true, and it's why I've never once chided the Seahawks for "reaching." If that's all true though than this "one time" theory for Russell Wilson doesn't make a damn lick of sense, though.

The Seahawks brass are either hyper-reactive to what they believe other people are thinking (a bad strategy) and willing to risk a franchise changing QB on thinking they know something they can't actually know, or their unreactive to what they believe other people are thinking (a good strategy) and they take players based where they fall in relation to other players on their draft board and sometimes in relation to positional need.

It simply can't be both at once, or the more favorable version in the preferable cases.

I mean, look, the Seahawks were definitively already more correct about Wilson's draft value than any other team in the NFL.

Trying to guild the lily beyond that and insisting they were even more correct than they were is just silly IMO.

It contradicts everything we know about how the Seahawks draft, and unwittingly in the process characterizes JS and PC as being much dumber than they actually are.
 
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