Some random preseason thoughts, week 1

kearly

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Football is back! Yesterday I watched all of the Saints-Pats, all of the Broncos-Bears, and the first half of the Falcons-Redskins. Here are some random thoughts and observations.


Broncos-Bears


1. The Broncos still have an amazing defense. Even their backup unit was abusing the Bears O-line and making big plays.

2. Mark Sanchez looks more like the horrible Jets version than the competent Eagles version.

3. Trevor Siemian looks like a guy that could maybe develop into a Josh McCown type fringe starter years from now. He's decisive and has good zip, but still doesn't really know what he's doing.

4. DeMaryius Thomas can still horribly abuse average corners. I don't care if his QB sucks, I'll be targeting him in fantasy for sure. His situation isn't really all that different from DeAndre Hopkins IMO.

5. Paxton Lynch already looks like Denver's best QB, though he's essentially a poor man's Big Bird (Mike Glennon) at this point.

6. The Bears could easily threaten to be the NFL's worst team this year. Their running backs are terrible, other than maybe Jordan Howard who looks to be almost decent ala Robert Turbin. At receiver, Alshon is good, but Kevin White has yet to do anything and the rest are just flat bad. Their starting defense made Denver's offense look good. Their backup QBs are awful, other than Connor Shaw but even Shaw seems to generate most of his value from scrambling. They are just a mess and talent is very hard to find on that roster. Cutler isn't a great QB, but he deserves more sympathy for being trapped on a terrible roster.

7. The announcers would not stop gushing about rookie center Cody Whitehair for whatever reason. Cody Whitehair was the player I thought Seattle might target in round 2, instead they traded up with Chicago for Jarran Reed. Chicago, owning Seattle's original 2nd round pick, selected Whitehair.


Pats-Saints


1. Even though the Pats won the game, the Saints felt like the better pre-season roster. Which makes sense since Brady never played and Brady masks a lot of issues with that team.

2. All three of the Saints top receivers, (Cooks, Snead, and rookie Mike Thomas) looked very impressive. None of them are elite, but I would honestly take their WR trio over Arizona's trio. Thomas isn't going to dominate but he doesn't play like a rookie either. He will play like a vet even as a rookie similar to Tyler Lockett and Amari Cooper did last year. Snead is very under-rated, that guy is CRISP, quick, and good after the catch. Snead is almost like a blend between Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Cooks is the guy he's always been, awesome on deep routes and solid at everything else. Brees trusts him. I honestly think Tyler Lockett would be the #1 receiver if he were on the Saints roster, but Cooks would be a close 2nd.

3. The Pats defense has a recognizable big name at all 11 starter spots. It's not an elite defense, but it's a very tough defense to score 30+ on. It's preseason but Chris Long looked rejuvenated. Their run D is worth respecting. It appears that they have switched to a 4-3 defense.

4. Other than a lost fumble, Mark Ingram looked great and seemed to maximize the available yardage. Tim Hightower looked meh.

5. Pats rookie WR Malcolm Mitchell looked good. He has stuff to work on but the talent is there for him to become an upper tier #2 WR with time. It's too bad for them that he got injured in the game (out a month with an elbow injury).

6. QB Janeane Garofalo looked about as expected. There were parts of his game that are already NFL caliber, such as his zip and accuracy. But he was a bit wooden going through his progressions and he wasn't as good by the eyeball test as his final statline would suggest. In a vague sense, I would say his current level of performance is about the same as 2015 Brock Osweiler.


Falcons-Redskins


1. The Falcons looked like a 5-11 caliber team. Arthur Blank is not known for his patience. I expect Quinn's seat to be very warm by the end of this season.

2. Devonta Freeman looked awful. His OL blocking was actually pretty good at times but he never seemed to trust it and seemed to leave yards on the field every snap. He also dropped a gimme TD pass. Brandon Wilds was the best looking RB in this game for Atlanta. He averaged 2.6 YPC.

3. Falcons WR Aldrick Robinson had a monster game against his former team. He's a one dimensional player, but his deep ball skills are elite. It's probably just a fluke that he caught two of them in this game, but they were both very pretty.

4. Kirk Cousins playoff choke job aside, he's looked like an elite QB as of late. He looked elite in this game too, going 5-5 for 38 yards and looking incredibly sharp.

5. The Redskins 1st team defense looked elite, particularly their run defense and secondary. It's a bit like a poor man's version of Seattle's D. The Redskins 1st team units on both sides of the ball looked like something to be reckoned with. It felt like watching an 11 win team.

6. The Achilles heel of the Redskins was their running game. Matt Jones seems even fatter and slower than last year. Their backup RBs weren't any better. Chris Thompson could very well could take over as their starting RB at some point, even though he's clearly a receiving RB. He's talented enough to be a poor man's Dion Lewis if the Redskins decide to adopt a Patriots style of running game.

7. Colt McCoy looked surprisingly good as a backup. He would have had over a 100 passer rating if not for some silly drops, including an embarrassing long TD drop by TE Vernon Davis. Given the cozy relationship between the GMs of the Seahawks and Redskins, it wouldn't totally shock me if Seattle acquired McCoy in a trade later this month. McCoy is slowly growing into a good backup QB and he fits Seattle's mobile QB mold.
 

nanomoz

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Read every word. I enjoy your observations. The Colt McCoy observation is really intriguing. Thanks, Kip.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Joe Webb had a solid performance for the Panthers. He's currently their #3 QB, and given the durability of Cam and the dependability of Anderson, it seems likely that Webb is auditioning for another team right now. He could be a player to keep an eye on if Seattle wants to add a backup QB for free later.
 

ctrcat

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I'll simply have to say bravo for the effort and job well done with most of that, since I didn't watch a snap of those games. But I have to say zero chance on Webb. He had 9 special teams tackles and a fumble recovery, and is likely the most important special teamer period, and is an emergency WR and RB in addition to KR. If that wasn't enough, he plays an important scout team and practice player QB role and signed an extension this offseason.
 

NINEster

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Nice writeup, but a lot will change by the time week 1 in September rolls around.

Most of the 4-0/5-0 teams tend to suck, and vice versa for the 1-3 teams.
 

Fade

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Scot McCloughan is boss + Kirk Cousins is in the perfect system.

In another thread, I had the Redskins winning their division. And the same 6 teams in the NFC making the playoffs as last year.

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The Bears looked way worse on D then I anticipated. Vic Fangio has had another off season to get the personnel he wants to run his 3-4. Coach Fox looked like he is just going through the motions, happy to collect a paycheck. I have to agree with kearly at this point the Bears will be competing for the #1 pick, though I still favor the Browns to get it.

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Denver looked better because of the opponent, but that being said they will have a great home field advantage, a defense, and a good (not great) running game. Superbowl hangover & Mark Sanchez will drag them down still, and I actually expect Sanchez to be so bad that they bench him for Paxton Lynch come mid season.

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The Saints Defense is still bad, and Brees is still turnover prone. Same s*** different year.

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The Pats are going to be the team to beat again in the AFC, if Brady is still up to the task which he should be. I know it is just assumed he is still elite, but he could fade down the stretch. He is 39 after all. The 4 game suspension actually works in his favor.

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The Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff is a joke. Outside of trading away his entire draft for Julio Jones that one year, he has been a disaster. Take Matt Ryan off that team, and you are looking at the Cleveland Browns south. Julio Jones is Josh Gordon w/out the drug suspensions.

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The Raiders look loaded. The playoff drought is over. I love how Reggie McKenzie is frontloading the big contracts he is paying out. Taking advantage of their surplus cap space, while having lower cap numbers down the line. They are built to last if Carr is the real deal.

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The Cardinals looked like they had been basking in the glow of all the pundits telling them how great they are, and thought they would just show up and dominate. I know, I know ->Pre-season. BA is a good coach and will get them refocused, but it will be pretty damn funny if they play like they have a hangover for half the year when they haven't won anything.

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Carson Wentz is fools gold. He looks the part. Tall, athletic, NFL arm, good kid, but he is not a good decision maker, and the jump from FCS to the NFL seems like it is going to take him a few years. He was playing like a chicken with his head cutoff, and the speed of a pre-season game was overwhelming him. The best thing for him would be to have the Eagles lose a lot this year (which is likely). Then have him start 4-6 games at the end of the season in low pressure situations where it won't matter if he throws a ton of picks. If he is thrown into the fire in must win situations early, he will be ruined, and mentally I don't think he will recover.

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hawxfreak

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Thx Kearly and fade for some good observations as I only saw the tail end of az game but heard the fish comment
That was weird at best
The pack didn't look terrible but not very focused either but I didn't watch the entire game
I think Rodgers would have made them look entirely better , lots of bad tosses
Here's to a great barometer of how our oline looks in just 4 + hours
 

Jac

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Fade":2fv9px12 said:
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The Cardinals looked like they had been basking in the glow of all the pundits telling them how great they are, and thought they would just show up and dominate. I know, I know ->Pre-season. BA is a good coach and will get them refocused, but it will be pretty damn funny if they play like they have a hangover for half the year when they haven't won anything.

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Yeah, obviously just preseason, and they'll be tough this year. However, this is their third blowout loss in their last four games across regular season, postseason, and now preseason. And from a coach that likes to run up the score against the opposition.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Good thoughts Fade.

With regards to Denver, it's still very early but I think Lynch has the inside track to start in week 1. He's by far the best fit for Kubiak of the three QBs and he looks ready enough to start as a rookie. I could see him having a rookie Joe Flacco type of season this year, which would be an upgrade from what Denver had at QB last season.

I think Denver's running game is going to be brutal though. CJ Anderson is a decent back, but he won't have Peyton Manning there anymore using audibles to create favorable run situations for him, and the Broncos OL simply isn't good enough to lean on in the running game. I still think Denver makes the playoffs as a wildcard thanks to their defense, but it will be a close shave.

If they are stupid and start Sanchez for half the season, they will miss the playoffs.
 

Fade

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kearly":zsse5ig9 said:
Good thoughts Fade.

With regards to Denver, it's still very early but I think Lynch has the inside track to start in week 1. He's by far the best fit for Kubiak of the three QBs and he looks ready enough to start as a rookie. I could see him having a rookie Joe Flacco type of season this year, which would be an upgrade from what Denver had at QB last season.

I think Denver's running game is going to be brutal though. CJ Anderson is a decent back, but he won't have Peyton Manning there anymore using audibles to create favorable run situations for him, and the Broncos OL simply isn't good enough to lean on in the running game. I still think Denver makes the playoffs as a wildcard thanks to their defense, but it will be a close shave.

If they are stupid and start Sanchez for half the season, they will miss the playoffs.

Yeah. I think Elway, and the coaching staff would ideally want Sanchez to start early, and let Paxton Lynch develop, but if Lynch is too good in the pre-season, and Sanchez is Sanchez, then we may see Lynch in week 1. I need to see Lynch more in the pre-season before I hop on the start him in game 1 bandwagon. He looked good against the Bears 3rd stringers, and my eval on him coming out of college was that he was an even bigger project than Wentz, but it appears Lynch may have landed in the perfect spot.

My comment on Denver's running game was due to the system. Personnel wise they are barely avg.

Top ZBS coaches in the NFL
Kubiak & Cable.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Kubiak's the man, but remember he was there last year. The difference between 2015 and 2016 isn't Kubiak, it's Manning.

I just think that Peyton did a lot to help that running game with his ability to call plays on the field and audible into the run based on the looks he got. Manning is maybe the best QB in NFL history at doing this. It goes without saying there will be some level of dropoff from him to his successors in regards to the art of the audible.

To offset that loss they need to significantly improve their run game in some other way. Maybe Paxton Lynch adds a read option element or maybe a rookie steps up for them. But it seems unlikely to me that whatever positive surprises they get will compensate for Manning's impact on the run game.

It wouldn't shock me if they started Sanchez but I think they would only do it as a means to protect Lynch if they think he isn't ready. Teams have had a lot of success lately starting rookie QBs before they are quote-unquote ready, though it remains to be seen if Kubiak and Elway subscribe to that philosophy. Both are a bit on the old-school side of the spectrum, so maybe they keep the kid gloves on, go with Sanchez, and flush their season down the toilet.
 

El Caliente

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Pretty fair write up on the Saints Pats, but I wouldn't go so far in saying Locket would be our #1 war if he were here. Cooks would still be the #1 wr, and Locket would be used as a joker/ Darren Sproles.

Dude who said Saints defense is still trash, Brees still throws ints, etc. dude didn't even watch the game. There's the door.
 

5_Golden_Rings

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kearly":icpw7rme said:
Football is back! Yesterday I watched all of the Saints-Pats, all of the Broncos-Bears, and the first half of the Falcons-Redskins. Here are some random thoughts and observations.


Broncos-Bears


1. The Broncos still have an amazing defense. Even their backup unit was abusing the Bears O-line and making big plays.

2. Mark Sanchez looks more like the horrible Jets version than the competent Eagles version.

3. Trevor Siemian looks like a guy that could maybe develop into a Josh McCown type fringe starter years from now. He's decisive and has good zip, but still doesn't really know what he's doing.

4. DeMaryius Thomas can still horribly abuse average corners. I don't care if his QB sucks, I'll be targeting him in fantasy for sure. His situation isn't really all that different from DeAndre Hopkins IMO.

5. Paxton Lynch already looks like Denver's best QB, though he's essentially a poor man's Big Bird (Mike Glennon) at this point.

6. The Bears could easily threaten to be the NFL's worst team this year. Their running backs are terrible, other than maybe Jordan Howard who looks to be almost decent ala Robert Turbin. At receiver, Alshon is good, but Kevin White has yet to do anything and the rest are just flat bad. Their starting defense made Denver's offense look good. Their backup QBs are awful, other than Connor Shaw but even Shaw seems to generate most of his value from scrambling. They are just a mess and talent is very hard to find on that roster. Cutler isn't a great QB, but he deserves more sympathy for being trapped on a terrible roster.

7. The announcers would not stop gushing about rookie center Cody Whitehair for whatever reason. Cody Whitehair was the player I thought Seattle might target in round 2, instead they traded up with Chicago for Jarran Reed. Chicago, owning Seattle's original 2nd round pick, selected Whitehair.


Pats-Saints


1. Even though the Pats won the game, the Saints felt like the better pre-season roster. Which makes sense since Brady never played and Brady masks a lot of issues with that team.

2. All three of the Saints top receivers, (Cooks, Snead, and rookie Mike Thomas) looked very impressive. None of them are elite, but I would honestly take their WR trio over Arizona's trio. Thomas isn't going to dominate but he doesn't play like a rookie either. He will play like a vet even as a rookie similar to Tyler Lockett and Amari Cooper did last year. Snead is very under-rated, that guy is CRISP, quick, and good after the catch. Snead is almost like a blend between Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Cooks is the guy he's always been, awesome on deep routes and solid at everything else. Brees trusts him. I honestly think Tyler Lockett would be the #1 receiver if he were on the Saints roster, but Cooks would be a close 2nd.

3. The Pats defense has a recognizable big name at all 11 starter spots. It's not an elite defense, but it's a very tough defense to score 30+ on. It's preseason but Chris Long looked rejuvenated. Their run D is worth respecting. It appears that they have switched to a 4-3 defense.

4. Other than a lost fumble, Mark Ingram looked great and seemed to maximize the available yardage. Tim Hightower looked meh.

5. Pats rookie WR Malcolm Mitchell looked good. He has stuff to work on but the talent is there for him to become an upper tier #2 WR with time. It's too bad for them that he got injured in the game (out a month with an elbow injury).

6. QB Janeane Garofalo looked about as expected. There were parts of his game that are already NFL caliber, such as his zip and accuracy. But he was a bit wooden going through his progressions and he wasn't as good by the eyeball test as his final statline would suggest. In a vague sense, I would say his current level of performance is about the same as 2015 Brock Osweiler.


Falcons-Redskins


1. The Falcons looked like a 5-11 caliber team. Arthur Blank is not known for his patience. I expect Quinn's seat to be very warm by the end of this season.

2. Devonta Freeman looked awful. His OL blocking was actually pretty good at times but he never seemed to trust it and seemed to leave yards on the field every snap. He also dropped a gimme TD pass. Brandon Wilds was the best looking RB in this game for Atlanta. He averaged 2.6 YPC.

3. Falcons WR Aldrick Robinson had a monster game against his former team. He's a one dimensional player, but his deep ball skills are elite. It's probably just a fluke that he caught two of them in this game, but they were both very pretty.

4. Kirk Cousins playoff choke job aside, he's looked like an elite QB as of late. He looked elite in this game too, going 5-5 for 38 yards and looking incredibly sharp.

5. The Redskins 1st team defense looked elite, particularly their run defense and secondary. It's a bit like a poor man's version of Seattle's D. The Redskins 1st team units on both sides of the ball looked like something to be reckoned with. It felt like watching an 11 win team.

6. The Achilles heel of the Redskins was their running game. Matt Jones seems even fatter and slower than last year. Their backup RBs weren't any better. Chris Thompson could very well could take over as their starting RB at some point, even though he's clearly a receiving RB. He's talented enough to be a poor man's Dion Lewis if the Redskins decide to adopt a Patriots style of running game.

7. Colt McCoy looked surprisingly good as a backup. He would have had over a 100 passer rating if not for some silly drops, including an embarrassing long TD drop by TE Vernon Davis. Given the cozy relationship between the GMs of the Seahawks and Redskins, it wouldn't totally shock me if Seattle acquired McCoy in a trade later this month. McCoy is slowly growing into a good backup QB and he fits Seattle's mobile QB mold.


Do more! Excellent work. But you know you can get NFL Gamepass for free for seven days, so no excuse not to do the rest of the games! Plus if you get it today you can do all of next week too bby.
 
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