All Things Betting For NFL

All things betting in here. Post whatever plays you like (whether you are actually betting or not). Honestly, without betting, sports would be so boring to me. I love it. Live it. Need it.

Here are my thoughts on the week 3 card:

Cincinnati will be a big play for me most likely. Just comes down to whether I take the moneyline or lay the 3 points. Denver will be more than happy starting the season 2-1 with Simien. Cinci is always tough at home. Also revenge from last years game where Denver won in OT.

I like Carolina -7. I think they beat-down the Vikings. As good as Minnesota has looked, I feel like they are a bit overrated, especially with no AP. People are acting like their defense is the Seahawks defense. They've played a horrible Titans team and a Packers team that struggled against the Jags in week 1. Like Denver, Minnesota will be more than happy to start their season 2-1.

Buffalo +3.5 looks good. Major trap line here. Public is all over Arizona. Buffalo is on 10 days rest. Buffalo is desperate for a win. Westcoast team going out east to play a 1PM EST game. If I make this bet, it has nothing to do with talent, it's a spot play, all factors point towards Buffalo.

Jags +1. Jags badly need a win, Baltimore is due for a loss. Baltimore should have lost last week but only won because McCown was playing hurt for the entire second half.

Tennessee -1 is definitely the biggest trap line Vegas has put out. Public is all over Oakland, but sharps are on Tennessee. The fact that the Titans are favored pretty much tells you who Vegas likes in this game. Everyone and their mom will be on Oakland, and they will likely lose on Oakland too. Tbh, Oakland just isn't that good. Oakland won last year in Tennessee, they aren't good enough to do it two times in a row.

Small leans to Chicago +7, Seattle -9.5, GB -7 and Miami -10. I love taking teams off of losses. More times than not, they bounce back. I think Chicago and the points seems like the right side, but not sure I trust them with all the injuries and how bad they are. Chicago typically plays well in Dallas, and Dallas loves to make things more interesting than they should be on primetime. Seattle should bounce-back against an awful SF team. Miami should smack the Browns, but I can definitely see the Dolphins letting down here. Pack should bounce back from last weeks loss. Also revenge from last year when Detroit went into GB and beat them.

Thanks for all this nice imfo,wish I had it for my pick the winners pool ..I had to turn it in yesterday afternoon.I have picked the wrong team for the last 3 Thursdays btw..Ha unreal

I picked the under in the Denver game. Two really good defenses

I did pick Oakland as well. Will see if trap or not

Over in Atl-Saints game

Really like the Giants against skins. I would take them -7 so free points IMHO
Didn't touch either Miami, Seahawks or Carolina. If anything I would bet 49ers on the spread like I did in the Sea-Miami game

I disagree with the Raiders - Titans pick, not that I'm that enthusiastic on Oakland's playoff hopes but Tennessee fill me with even less confidence. I'm surprised Oakland are underdogs here, good value for the win.

Like the Giants to get the win but can only take moneyline and not such a large handicap.

Miami look set to trash the Browns.

Hawk-Lock":3k78lj09 said:

The fact that the Titans are favored pretty much tells you who Vegas likes in this game.

Click to expand...

You mean it isn't true that Vegas only sets the line based on their best guess about what the 'rubes' think, in order to get 50% of the money laid down on each team? And then adjusts the line through the week to fine-tune this guess?

Here's what I have for the early games:

Cincinatti -3 BIG
Cinci ML/Seattle ML parlay (pays almost even)
Tennessee +2
Buffalo +5 (small bet, I honestly think there is a chance Buffalo gets ran, but we'll see)
Jacksonville +2.5

GeekHawk":1114pqxa said:

Hawk-Lock":1114pqxa said:

The fact that the Titans are favored pretty much tells you who Vegas likes in this game.

Click to expand...

You mean it isn't true that Vegas only sets the line based on their best guess about what the 'rubes' think, in order to get 50% of the money laid down on each team? And then adjusts the line through the week to fine-tune this guess?

Click to expand...

IMO, a lot of the times they set lines for even action. In the case of the Titans/Oakland game, the public is hammering Oakland, but sharps (big money bettors) are betting Tennessee which is why at one point Tennessee was favored. Sharps are keeping that line from moving in Oakland's favor.

A lot of people think Vegas only sets lines for even action, but I do believe at times sportsbooks and vegas bets. Pinnacle, the main book that sets most offshore lines for all books, is known to bet against their own players. A lot of times they hang "favorable" lines with high juice, in order to bait bettors and collect juice. For instance, lets say all sportsbooks have Seahawks -10 with standard -110 juice. Pinacle may offer Seattle at -9.5 with juice of -120.

These are just my opinion, but I do think some sportsbooks take risks. But lets be honest, they can afford tot take risks. Books may a ton of money. Lets forget the times when the public cashes and Vegas takes a so-called hit. Think of all the juice they collect, they collect 10% extra on all losing bets. Not to mention all the people who buy points for extra juice, all the parlays and teasers that go up in flames, etc. Vegas wins....a lot.

BTW, a ton of late money just came in on Jacksnville. Sharps bet early and late on games, the most important line movement is early and late. Jacksonville just went from +2.5 to +1 in a matter of minutes right before the game started.