#1 Defense vs #1 Offense in the Super Bowl

Defense has prevailed over Offense 4 to 1

SB 1 - Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10
SB 13 - Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31
SB 19 - San Francisco 38, Miami 16
SB 24 - San Francisco 55, Denver 10 **
SB 25 - New York Giants 20, Buffalo 19
SB 47 - Seattle 43, Denver 8

** - #1 Offense prevailed

Concerning for Atlanta.....

NINEster":188wm6nh said:

Concerning for Atlanta.....

Click to expand...

Not when you consider the level of competition the Patriots played this season to get that #1 scoring defense.



Best QB they faced was Russell Wilson... and they lost.

Look at DVOA...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Atlanta beat #1 and #3... lost to #4 and #5... then beat #5 in the playoffs.

New England is 16th.

New England is a good football team... but their defense isn't even close to the 2015 Broncos or the 2013 Seahawks.

LOL @ NE's defense. Pisses me off they got #1 scoring defense over Seattle. This would have been a 5th straight season. Look at the QBs we Played. Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, etc, etc.

NINEster":g8hr7784 said:

SB 47 - Seattle 43, Denver 8

Click to expand...

Seattle won 48, not 47.

I'll chalk this up to you wanting to forget the 49ers LOST Super Bowl 47. :stirthepot:

Considering the cupcakes the NE defense faced, I'm really not thinking the trend will matter much for this particular match-up.

I absolutely agree with the premise, Nine, but this is a terrible example of it. However, usually the more balanced team wins the Super Bowl.

That San Francisco team didn't have a bad offense either. They were pretty balanced iirc.

RolandDeschain":2fqqsqiu said:

Considering the cupcakes the NE defense faced, I'm really not thinking the trend will matter much for this particular match-up.

I absolutely agree with the premise, Nine, but this is a terrible example of it. However, usually the more balanced team wins the Super Bowl.

Click to expand...

NE is #1 in total DVOA. Atlanta is #3. NE has the #2 offensive DVOA, and ATL has the #27 defensive DVOA. ATL has the #1 offensive DVOA, and NE has the #16 defensive DVOA.

Toss up?

Eh, DVOA is something I do put a lot of stock in. What's got me concerned more is the fact that there's a larger discrepancy between weighted DVOA.

I hope the Falcons win, but if I were forced to bet a month's salary on it, I'd have to put the $ on New England.

RolandDeschain":1cjf04rd said:

Eh, DVOA is something I do put a lot of stock in. What's got me concerned more is the fact that there's a larger discrepancy between weighted DVOA.

I hope the Falcons win, but if I were forced to bet a month's salary on it, I'd have to put the $ on New England.

Click to expand...

Nothing wrong with that. My roommate back in 2007 was a Pats fan and he lost a bundle.

:mrgreen:

NINEster":oj8nkqnu said:

Concerning for Atlanta.....

Click to expand...

More reason for optimism...

Fun with perception: Atlanta's offense played the No. 2 hardest schedule of defenses this year. NE's D played the easiest sched of offenses.

https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/8 ... 4866327552

Picks are starting to come in over at nflpickwatch... and some might be surprised.

The_Z_Man":292mx4bl said:

Forget all of that, it's BB.

He will take JJ out of the game completely... that is the trick to beating the Patriots, being just fine with them eliminating the strength of your offense and going in a different direction. But if Julio gets fussy, and Ryan tries to force it into him, that's when things go sideways.

Click to expand...

I'm sure they will be fine with it if taking Julio out is the way the Pats go... Falcons are 7-0 this year in games Julio was held to less than 60 yards (5 games) or DNP (2 games).

It's not like Atlanta doesn't have guys named Gabriel, Sanu, Hooper, Freeman, Coleman, Hardy that can score.

Belichick said it pretty good in his presser yesterday...

"They're explosive... any guy that touches the ball can score... from 80 yards away."

... and he's 100% right.

P.S. Despite the lack of production I just mentioned... Julio still ended up with 1400 yards over his 14 games.

ivotuk":1tanss0o said:

LOL @ NE's defense. Pisses me off they got #1 scoring defense over Seattle. This would have been a 5th straight season. Look at the QBs we Played. Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, etc, etc.

Click to expand...

Here are the QBs we played in order

Tannehill
Keenum
Gabbert
Fitzpatrick
Matt Ryan
Carson Palmer (in ARZ)
Drew Brees (in NO)
Tyrod Taylor
Tom Brady (in NE)
Wentz
Winston
Cam Newton
Rodgers (in GB)
Goff
Palmer
Kaepernick

We had to freaking face Brees, Brady and Rodgers all on the road. In addition faced Palmer twice(once on the road), Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton. Almost half the games we played were against TOP 10 QB talents and you could argue 1/4 of our Games were against TOP 5 QBs (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan)

WilsonMVP":2ibppfei said:

We had to freaking face Brees, Brady and Rodgers all on the road.

Click to expand...

Someone had to give Brady a challenge during the regular season right?

We know that the Patriots yielded the fewest points among NFL teams. But that doesn’t mean New England had the No. 1 defense. Going by yards against, it was No. 8. Using Outsiders’ DVOA (defense-adjusted value above average), Mr. Stuart notes that the Pats were No. 16 — mediocre, in sum — in that metric. He also writes:

“The Patriots faced by far the easiest schedule of any defense in the NFL. New England’s strength of schedule was -7.1%, while Tennessee was 31st at -4.2% and the Bills were 30th at -3.0%. The Patriots would be tied for eighth in DVOA if that metric was not adjusted for strength of schedule, which is why the defense falls to 16th with those adjustments.

Also: The best quarterback the Patriots faced in the regular season was Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who threw for 348 yards and administered New England’s only loss with Tom Brady starting. Mr. Stuart’s conclusion: “As far as ‘No. 1 scoring defenses’ go, this is a pretty non-threatening defense to face for the top quarterback in the NFL in 2016.”


http://markbradley.blog.myajc.com/2017/ ... ally-no-1/

Atlanta's regular season record: 11-5

In terms of scoring defense, the Falcons vaunted offense played against top 12 ranked defenses 4 times: Seattle, Denver, KC and Philly. They went 1-3 (beating Denver).

Atlanta played the bottom 12 defenses (not including their own) 8 times, winning 7 of those games. Must be nice considering somehow they played the 2nd toughest schedule against defenses?

The opponent records in games they lost: 43-38-1
in games they won: 56-64-1

Atlanta has reaped the benefit of a fairly soft schedule just as much as New England has.

Left out of the above post is that Atlanta has REALLY come on offensively LATE (when it counts, in the playoffs). Not like Denver when we played them.

And N.E. does not even come close to the Hawks 2013 defense.

Atlanta is going to win.

Largent80":3b67rbly said:

Left out of the above post is that Atlanta has REALLY come on offensively LATE (when it counts, in the playoffs). Not like Denver when we played them.

And N.E. does not even come close to the Hawks 2013 defense.

Atlanta is going to win.

Click to expand...

Left out in the above post is...


NE defense has done a pretty admirable job, giving up 17 and 16 points (mostly garbage), while scoring plus 30 in both games.

I honestly will pull for Atlanta. just adding some non-"Atlanta is going to win" data from our one resident Falcons fan.

Atlanta IS going to win. add me to the list. NOT impressed with the N.E. defense, after all, our crap offense beat them IN Foxboro.

Uncle Si":29okngdy said:

Atlanta's regular season record: 11-5

In terms of scoring defense, the Falcons vaunted offense played against top 12 ranked defenses 4 times: Seattle, Denver, KC and Philly. They went 1-3 (beating Denver).

Atlanta has reaped the benefit of a fairly soft schedule just as much as New England has.

Click to expand...

Are you using "vaunted" seriously or sarcastically?

TBH I'm tired of debating it. New England fans are humping the leg of the #1 scoring defense animal to no end... it was much more fun debating with Seattle fans.

We'll find out in 6 more days.

As for the defensive rankings I guess it depends on how you are compiling the ranking. New England is #1 in scoring... 8th in YPG and 16th in DVOA.

Atlanta beat #1 in DVOA (Denver), #3 (Arizona), and lost to #4 (Philly) and #5 (Seattle). New England is 16th. So in case you're wondering... nobody here is terrified on how we are gonna score on New England.

Rather than repeat what was said... watch this video if you haven't yet. Rich Eisen and I pretty much share the same opinion.

[youtube]p6UM0pUGTM8[/youtube]

Largent80":29okngdy said:

Left out of the above post is that Atlanta has REALLY come on offensively LATE (when it counts, in the playoffs). Not like Denver when we played them.

And N.E. does not even come close to the Hawks 2013 defense.

Atlanta is going to win.

Click to expand...

Yeah, in case anyone is wondering I actually pulled these stats this morning while arguing with a Pats fan claiming their D was like the 2013 Seahawks.

2016 Pats 5223 yards 23 TO
2013 Seahawks 4378 yards 39 TO

So yeah... not even close other than the Pats 250 pts allowed vs 231... that was inflated(no pun intended) by a schedule full of mediocre offenses of which Atlanta is miles above.

Largent80":qddttwkh said:

Atlanta IS going to win. add me to the list. NOT impressed with the N.E. defense, after all, our crap offense beat them IN Foxboro.

Click to expand...

Hahah... that makes 3 of us not impressed with the Pats D. You, me, and Rich Eisen. LOL Atlanta's D went from 27 PPG to 19 PPG over the last 6 weeks and has looked great in the playoffs as well... and the offense has put up 40 a game.

I have too much respect for B & B to guarantee victory... but I will say that I've never been more confident in an Atlanta victory. As long as they do what they've done all season which is protect the football, run a balanced offensive attack and make some stops on D while scoring 30+... that should be enough to bring home the Lombardi.

Anyone see the interview with Brady today?

[youtube]zrGeIWwia3M[/youtube]

He gives props while being completely honest at the same time. :mrgreen:

One thing I REALLY like about this matchup is the fact we haven't played each other since 2013.