Hello Everyone,
As I promised earlier today with my NFC Playoff Picture post, I will now go over the AFC Playoff picture and scenarios for week 14 now that all AFC games for week 13 have been played. Since this obviously doesn't (directly) affect the Seahawks, I am posting this in the NFL Nation section. If you are interested in the NFC playoff picture for week 14, you can find it here. Like the NFC picture, I will use the following letters:
*--Team has clinched homefield advantage
z--Team has clinched no worse than the #2 seed (and a bye week)
y--Team has clinched its division (sometimes followed by a number to reflect specific seed)
x--Team has clinched a playoff spot of any kind
e--Team has been eliminated from any playoff consideration
With all that said let's dig in starting with the AFC East:
Patriots 10-2 7-1 Conf 3-0 Div Remaining Games: @Dolphins, @Steelers, Bills, Jets
Bills 6-6 4-4 Conf 1-2 Div Remaining Games: Colts, Dolphins, @Patriots, @Dolphins
Jets 5-7 5-4 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining Games: @Broncos, @Saints, Chargers, @Patriots
Dolphins 5-7 4-4 Conf 1-2 Div Remaining Games: Patriots, @Bills, @Chiefs, Bills
Clinching Scenarios: The Patriots have the #2 seed currently but control their own destiny since they play the team that currently is ahead of them (Steelers). They also have the obvious inside track to the AFC East. In fact the Patriots clinch the AFC East with either a Win/Tie *OR* a Bills loss/tie. Even if the Patriots somehow lose this Sunday and Bills win, they still clinch a playoff spot if both the Titans lose *AND* Jax loses. Surprisingly the AFC West teams don't factor in since they will play each other twice and only one will win the AFC West and thus any survivor will be worse than 10-6. If Jax loses and the Titans do, then it insures that the team that doesn't win the AFC South can't be any better than 9-6-1 (because Jax and Titans play each other in week 17). The Bills don't factor in this since the only way that New England can be forced into a wildcard is for the Bills to win out and the Patriots to lose out.
Elimination Scenarios: Obviously the Jets and Dolphins can't win the AFC East. If the Bills lose/tie OR Patriots win, they are eliminated as well (see above). I don't see any obvious way that any AFC East team is eliminated from playoff contention in week 14.
Let's move onto the AFC North:
Steelers 10-2 7-1 Conf 4-0 Div Remaining Games: Ravens, Patriots, @Texans, Browns
Ravens 7-5 5-3 Conf 2-1 Div Remaining Games: @Steelers, @Browns, Colts, Bengals
Bengals 5-7 5-6 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining Games: Bears, @Vikings, Lions, @Ravens
Browns (e) 0-12 0-10 Conf 0-4 Div Remaining Games: Packers, Ravens, @Bears, @Steelers
Clinching Scenarios: This division is actually very much like the AFC East except the Steelers are in the driver's seat here. The Clinching Scenario for the AFC East is absurdly simple. If the Steelers win/tie, then win the division. It so happens that they play in week 14 the only possible team that could catch them. Also note that the Steelers play the Patriots which means they clinch any playoff spot (even if they lose) if Jax AND the Titans lose [since both the Steelers and the Patriots can't finish 10-6 since they play each other]. Other than the Steelers no other team can clinch near as I can tell.
Elimination Scenarios: The Browns have (obviously) long since been eliminated. The Bengals because they lost tonight on MNF are eliminated from the AFC North. If the Ravens lose or tie ANY of their remaining games (starting with the Steelers), they are eliminated as well giving the crown to the Steelers (see above). I do not believe that either the Raven or Bengals can be eliminated altogether in week 14.
Let's move onto the AFC South:
Titans 8-4 7-4 Conf 4-1 Div Remaining Games: @Cardinals, @Niners, Rams, Jax
Jax 8-4 8-2 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining Games: Seahawks, Texans, @Niners, @Titans
Texans 4-8 3-6 Conf 1-3 Div Remaining Games: Niners, @Jax, Steelers, @Colts
Colts 3-9 2-6 Conf 1-4 Div Remaining Games: @Bills, Broncos, @Ravens, Texans
Clinching Scenarios: None (at least none I can see).
Elimination Scenarios: Neither the Titans nor Jax can be eliminated in week 14. If the Colts lose/tie, they are eliminated. That is the only overt elimination scenario I see (the AFC is really bad this year).
Finally let's move onto the AFC West:
Chiefs 6-6 4-4 Conf 2-1 Div Remaining Games: Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, @Broncos
Chargers 6-6 4-5 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining Games: Redskins, @Chiefs, @Jets, Raiders
Raiders 6-6 5-5 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining Games: @Chiefs, Cowboys, @Eagles, @Chargers
Broncos 3-9 2-7 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining Games: Jets, @Titans, @Redskins, Chiefs
Clinching Scenarios: I think pretty obviously not. That said, the Raiders did beat KC earlier this year so the Raiders would be on the cusp of an AFC West Crown if they beat the Chiefs and the Chargers lose. Note that the top three teams play at least two of their fellow 6-6 teams in the home stretch which means if one of them runs the table, two others have to endure a loss (it's why the Patriots and Steelers can clinch a playoff spot even if they lose). I don't see this log jam being resolved prior to week 16.
Elimination Scenario: The only one I see is the obvious one. If the Broncos lose or tie another game, they're out.
I hope this was useful to everyone.
As I promised earlier today with my NFC Playoff Picture post, I will now go over the AFC Playoff picture and scenarios for week 14 now that all AFC games for week 13 have been played. Since this obviously doesn't (directly) affect the Seahawks, I am posting this in the NFL Nation section. If you are interested in the NFC playoff picture for week 14, you can find it here. Like the NFC picture, I will use the following letters:
*--Team has clinched homefield advantage
z--Team has clinched no worse than the #2 seed (and a bye week)
y--Team has clinched its division (sometimes followed by a number to reflect specific seed)
x--Team has clinched a playoff spot of any kind
e--Team has been eliminated from any playoff consideration
With all that said let's dig in starting with the AFC East:
Patriots 10-2 7-1 Conf 3-0 Div Remaining Games: @Dolphins, @Steelers, Bills, Jets
Bills 6-6 4-4 Conf 1-2 Div Remaining Games: Colts, Dolphins, @Patriots, @Dolphins
Jets 5-7 5-4 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining Games: @Broncos, @Saints, Chargers, @Patriots
Dolphins 5-7 4-4 Conf 1-2 Div Remaining Games: Patriots, @Bills, @Chiefs, Bills
Clinching Scenarios: The Patriots have the #2 seed currently but control their own destiny since they play the team that currently is ahead of them (Steelers). They also have the obvious inside track to the AFC East. In fact the Patriots clinch the AFC East with either a Win/Tie *OR* a Bills loss/tie. Even if the Patriots somehow lose this Sunday and Bills win, they still clinch a playoff spot if both the Titans lose *AND* Jax loses. Surprisingly the AFC West teams don't factor in since they will play each other twice and only one will win the AFC West and thus any survivor will be worse than 10-6. If Jax loses and the Titans do, then it insures that the team that doesn't win the AFC South can't be any better than 9-6-1 (because Jax and Titans play each other in week 17). The Bills don't factor in this since the only way that New England can be forced into a wildcard is for the Bills to win out and the Patriots to lose out.
Elimination Scenarios: Obviously the Jets and Dolphins can't win the AFC East. If the Bills lose/tie OR Patriots win, they are eliminated as well (see above). I don't see any obvious way that any AFC East team is eliminated from playoff contention in week 14.
Let's move onto the AFC North:
Steelers 10-2 7-1 Conf 4-0 Div Remaining Games: Ravens, Patriots, @Texans, Browns
Ravens 7-5 5-3 Conf 2-1 Div Remaining Games: @Steelers, @Browns, Colts, Bengals
Bengals 5-7 5-6 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining Games: Bears, @Vikings, Lions, @Ravens
Browns (e) 0-12 0-10 Conf 0-4 Div Remaining Games: Packers, Ravens, @Bears, @Steelers
Clinching Scenarios: This division is actually very much like the AFC East except the Steelers are in the driver's seat here. The Clinching Scenario for the AFC East is absurdly simple. If the Steelers win/tie, then win the division. It so happens that they play in week 14 the only possible team that could catch them. Also note that the Steelers play the Patriots which means they clinch any playoff spot (even if they lose) if Jax AND the Titans lose [since both the Steelers and the Patriots can't finish 10-6 since they play each other]. Other than the Steelers no other team can clinch near as I can tell.
Elimination Scenarios: The Browns have (obviously) long since been eliminated. The Bengals because they lost tonight on MNF are eliminated from the AFC North. If the Ravens lose or tie ANY of their remaining games (starting with the Steelers), they are eliminated as well giving the crown to the Steelers (see above). I do not believe that either the Raven or Bengals can be eliminated altogether in week 14.
Let's move onto the AFC South:
Titans 8-4 7-4 Conf 4-1 Div Remaining Games: @Cardinals, @Niners, Rams, Jax
Jax 8-4 8-2 Conf 3-1 Div Remaining Games: Seahawks, Texans, @Niners, @Titans
Texans 4-8 3-6 Conf 1-3 Div Remaining Games: Niners, @Jax, Steelers, @Colts
Colts 3-9 2-6 Conf 1-4 Div Remaining Games: @Bills, Broncos, @Ravens, Texans
Clinching Scenarios: None (at least none I can see).
Elimination Scenarios: Neither the Titans nor Jax can be eliminated in week 14. If the Colts lose/tie, they are eliminated. That is the only overt elimination scenario I see (the AFC is really bad this year).
Finally let's move onto the AFC West:
Chiefs 6-6 4-4 Conf 2-1 Div Remaining Games: Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, @Broncos
Chargers 6-6 4-5 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining Games: Redskins, @Chiefs, @Jets, Raiders
Raiders 6-6 5-5 Conf 2-2 Div Remaining Games: @Chiefs, Cowboys, @Eagles, @Chargers
Broncos 3-9 2-7 Conf 2-3 Div Remaining Games: Jets, @Titans, @Redskins, Chiefs
Clinching Scenarios: I think pretty obviously not. That said, the Raiders did beat KC earlier this year so the Raiders would be on the cusp of an AFC West Crown if they beat the Chiefs and the Chargers lose. Note that the top three teams play at least two of their fellow 6-6 teams in the home stretch which means if one of them runs the table, two others have to endure a loss (it's why the Patriots and Steelers can clinch a playoff spot even if they lose). I don't see this log jam being resolved prior to week 16.
Elimination Scenario: The only one I see is the obvious one. If the Broncos lose or tie another game, they're out.
I hope this was useful to everyone.
