Sports Hernia":wdrnb9ar said:
I remember a world beater last year that went 13-3, a beat up Seattle defense made him look like crap today. Once teams get film on a guy and start gameplanning around said players weaknesses sometimes success slows down. Doesn’t matter if it’s Shady Brady, Russell Wilson, last years golden boy Dak Prescott, or this year’s golden boy Jimmy G
Small sample sizes.
These kind of blanket statements always bother me because they ignore highly relevant details.
Let's start with Kaepernick. How did defenses figure him out? Was it the zone-read? Nope. It was his long release and his lack of anticipatory throwing ability.
Defenses began to realize that with Kap's long release and his tendency to need to see the WR open, they could play off the WR and then break as soon as he cocked his arm, knowing they'd get there in time. His four interception game against Arizona is what did it. From then on, Kaepernick was spooked into hesitating constantly, which only made his problems worse. It took an entire year and the right coaching staff to get him functional again.
So what happened? Defenses found a
predictable and reliable physical weakness he had (long release) along with a
predictable and reliable action (needing to see WRs open before throwing, resulting in his eyes betraying where he wanted to go with the ball). That's when he was "figured out." Now with his passing ability neutralized, defenses could stuff the box and limit his other attributes.
Shady Brady? Dude defenses
have not actually figured him out. He is still routinely competing for MVP, and no scheming has yet to predictably and reliably stop him. Why? Because he has no physical or other weakness that is predictably reliable. You can say Brady can't move much, but that isn't a physical handicap for a pocket quarterback. The fact is Brady has no predictable weaknesses. Neither does Drew Brees (other than his height, but his vision neutralizes that weakness), or many other great pocket quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson: Russell has a
predictable physical weakness (his height); it will be there every game, and the result is he is not very great at rhythm passing, in particular on the shorter routes. This is, however, rendered irrelevant by his athletic ability. What Russell Wilson presents is a predictable weakness TO THE DEFENSE weak in and weak out. The defense must always be careful in their pass rush every time they play Seattle, and must often spy him. Wilson has not been neutralized by NFL defenses. Even when he's playing badly he makes plays. So yeah, put Wilson in a similar category with Brady. No one has "figured him out" yet because even though defenses know what is coming, by its very nature what he does is unpredictable. No one knows which way he's going to dart, or when he's going to see the WR breaking open, or where on the field. You know it's coming, but it's still unpredictable.
Dak Prescott: His weaknesses have always been known, and they are mechanical and mental. (1) He has poor pocket comfort, (2) he does what Kaepernick does; throws when he sees the WR open rather than anticipating, and throwing to the target rather than leading the target. Defenses didn't suddenly have an epiphany regarding Prescott. This is just what happens when an extremely talented supporting cast carries a mediocre quarterback- unless the crew around him always performs, at some point the lack of ability of the quarterback is going to shine through. Losing Elliot for several games hurt, but nothing really changed in what was known about him.
How about Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl against Seattle? He had a PREDICTABLE physical weakness, and as a result a predictable scheme weakness: declining arm strength. Most of his passes were stretching the defense horizontally close to the line of scrimmage. Seattle exploited this to the full extent. The other weakness he had in that game was that he played against a top 10 all time defense. But the defense knew they had reliable intel about Manning. All his deep passes were within seconds of the snap and only 15-20 yards down field when caught. Using their press defense and cover 3 looks, the Seahawks were easily able to remove this weapon from Manning. Combined with the elite pass rush, the results were as predictable as Manning was.
That post has been all about
predictable weaknesses, so far. Those are what defenses need to scheme to exploit a weakness. Here is a guy who had a weakness that defenses could NOT scheme against, but rather had to just stand ready to take advantage of when it occurred:
Brett Favre. He had a huge weakness: he would throw the ball in any window no matter what because he felt he could fit it in. This led to him being the all time interception leader. But it wasn't something a defense could SCHEME for to take advantage of, because no one ever knew when he was going to do something stupid with the ball. But Favre had zero physical weaknesses, or weaknesses that were predictable.
Now, take a look at Garoppolo: He likewise has no
predictable physical weaknesses. His arm is adequate. His release is lightning fast, maybe the fastest in the NFL. He doesn't need to set his feet to throw, and he's very quick at going from recognizing the time to throw and making the throw. So, there is nothing physical that a defense can key on (unlike with Kaepernick). That leaves only the possibility of finding some tendency for him regarding throwing the ball, but he's thrown it all over the field his entire career and in college. He is not predictable in where he throws, in particular because he doesn't need to see the WR open before he throws it.
He HAS a weakness, however, which was obvious from the beginning, and it's a potentially crippling one: he takes chances with the ball, just like Favre, except his arm isn't nearly as strong. This weakness will haunt him in the future. However, the key here is that it is an
UNPREDICTABLE weakness. No one can anticipate when Jimmy G is going to try to thread the needle into a place he has no business attempting a pass.
The only other possibility for your post to be accurate is if Jimmy G somehow telegraphs where he's going to go with the ball based on a certain coverage or read. However, because of his absurdly fast release, even if he did, defenses will not be able to capitalize on it.
Instead, the only predictable weakness defenses will be able to exploit are SCHEME weaknesses (like what the Patriots did to Seattle in the Super Bowl based on the formation at the goal line on the INT to Butler). Say, for example, if the 49ers always run a slant out of stacked/staggered formations (something Shanahan has always liked doing). Then a defender could anticipate the throw before his arm is even cocked, and then get an INT. But all that would result in is an offensive adjustment by Shanahan.
Bottom line: if there isn't a predictable and reliable weakness, and in particular a physical weakness or tendencies caused by a predictable physical weakness or lack of quarterback fundamentals (e.g. anticipatory throwing), defenses aren't able to scheme effectively against the quarterback on a reliable and predictable basis.
