Hello Everyone,
Nothing says it's the holidays quite like seeing the Minnesota Vikings being trod into the turf of Century Link Field by a relentless swarm of radioactive army ants. At least that's how it seemed to me before garbage time. In other news, we have the new playoff scenarios for week 15 and thinks are looking very well indeed. As always I will discuss the AFC scenarios here and discuss the corresponding NFC scenarios in a companion article in the main forum under NFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 15]. As before, I will use the following symbols:
*--Home Field Advantage
z--First Round Bye
y--Division Winner
x--Playoff Spot
(e)--Eliminated
As before I will sometimes follow such a symbol with a number to reflect a specific seed if applicable. With all that said, let's dig in.
AFC East
The Miami miracle prevented the New England Patriots from locking up the division in week 14, but I don't expect the reprieve to last long. Miami is still alive but the rest can't be said for Buffalo or the NY Jets.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Patriots 9-4 6-3 3-1 @Pittsburgh, Buffalo, NY Jets
Miami 7-6 6-4 4-1 @Minnesota, Jacksonville, Buffalo
Buffalo (e) 4-9 3-7 1-3 Detroit, @New England, Miami
NY Jets(e) 4-9 3-7 1-4 Houston, Green Bay, @New England
Clinching Scenario: New England can clinch the division with a win AND a Miami loss.
Elimination Scenarios: Miami can be eliminated from the AFC East race with a loss and New England win. (see above)
AFC North
Pittsburgh is leading the division right now but only just and there are critical games for both Pittsburgh and Baltimore (the runner up) this weekend.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Pittsburgh 7-5-1 4-5-1 3-1-1 New England, @New Orleans, Cincinnati
Baltimore 7-6 6-4 2-3 Tampa Bay, @LA Chargers, Cleveland
Cleveland 5-7-1 3-5-1 2-1-1 @Denver, Cincinnati, @Baltimore
Cincinnati 5-8 3-6 1-3 Oakland, @Cleveland, @Pittsburgh
Clinching Scenarios: NONE (for what should be obvious reasons)
Elimination Scenarios: Cleveland is eliminated from the AFC North race with a loss or a Pittsburgh win. Cleveland is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, and a win by EITHER Indy or Tennessee. Cincinnati is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. Cincinnati is also eliminated with a win by EITHER Indy or Tennessee AND a win by either Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Cincinnati is eliminated from the AFC North race with a win by either Pittsburgh or Baltimore.
AFC South
The Houston Texans are still firmly in control of this division, but my feelings of 'fraud' regarding them were reinforced this past week. IMHO Indy is probably a better team right now, but sheer momentum is very likely to give the Texans the division. Indy and Tenn are vying with Baltimore for wildcard spots and have easier schedules than many. Keep tuned.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Houston 9-4 7-3 3-2 @NY Jets, @Philadelphia, Jacksonville
Indy 7-6 6-5 3-2 Dallas, NY Giants, @Tenn
Tenn 7-6 5-6 3-2 @NY Giants, Washington, Indy
Jax (e) 4-9 3-7 1-4 Washington, @Miami, @Houston
Clinching Scenario: Houston can clinch the division with a win and Indy loss and Tenn loss.
Elimination Scenarios: Per above, Indy is eliminated from the AFC North race with a loss and Houston win. Likewise Tenn is eliminated from the AFC North race with a loss and Houston win.
AFC West
This division is coming down to a dogfight between the division leading Kansas City Chiefs and the runner up LA Chargers. Denver is still alive (just) but Oakland is reduced to being a spoiler while planning for 2019.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Chiefs-x 11-2 9-1 4-0 LA Chargers, @Seattle, Oakland
LA Chargers 10-3 7-2 2-2 @Kansas City, Baltimore, @Denver
Denver 6-7 4-5 2-2 Cleveland, @Oakland, LA Chargers
Oakland (e) 3-10 2-7 0-4 @Cincinnati, Denver, @Kansas City
Clinching Scenarios: There are several. Edit: Because Houston has three conference loses and if Kansas City wins, they could have at most two, Houston would lose to Kansas City on any 1-1 tiebreak. This changes my scenarios slightly.
1) Kansas City can clinch home field advantage with a WIN + New England Loss+ Houston loss
2) Kansas City can clinch a first round bye with a WIN+ {New England Loss OR Houston Loss}
3) Kansas City can clinch the AFC West with a WIN
4) LA Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a WIN
5) LA Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a Miami loss, Baltimore Loss, Indy Loss, and Tenn Loss
Elimination Scenarios: LA Chargers are eliminated from the AFC West race with a LOSS. There are no other elimination scenarios in week 15. Oakland is already eliminated.
*whew* I hope you find this useful!
Nothing says it's the holidays quite like seeing the Minnesota Vikings being trod into the turf of Century Link Field by a relentless swarm of radioactive army ants. At least that's how it seemed to me before garbage time. In other news, we have the new playoff scenarios for week 15 and thinks are looking very well indeed. As always I will discuss the AFC scenarios here and discuss the corresponding NFC scenarios in a companion article in the main forum under NFC Playoff Scenarios [Week 15]. As before, I will use the following symbols:
*--Home Field Advantage
z--First Round Bye
y--Division Winner
x--Playoff Spot
(e)--Eliminated
As before I will sometimes follow such a symbol with a number to reflect a specific seed if applicable. With all that said, let's dig in.
AFC East
The Miami miracle prevented the New England Patriots from locking up the division in week 14, but I don't expect the reprieve to last long. Miami is still alive but the rest can't be said for Buffalo or the NY Jets.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Patriots 9-4 6-3 3-1 @Pittsburgh, Buffalo, NY Jets
Miami 7-6 6-4 4-1 @Minnesota, Jacksonville, Buffalo
Buffalo (e) 4-9 3-7 1-3 Detroit, @New England, Miami
NY Jets(e) 4-9 3-7 1-4 Houston, Green Bay, @New England
Clinching Scenario: New England can clinch the division with a win AND a Miami loss.
Elimination Scenarios: Miami can be eliminated from the AFC East race with a loss and New England win. (see above)
AFC North
Pittsburgh is leading the division right now but only just and there are critical games for both Pittsburgh and Baltimore (the runner up) this weekend.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Pittsburgh 7-5-1 4-5-1 3-1-1 New England, @New Orleans, Cincinnati
Baltimore 7-6 6-4 2-3 Tampa Bay, @LA Chargers, Cleveland
Cleveland 5-7-1 3-5-1 2-1-1 @Denver, Cincinnati, @Baltimore
Cincinnati 5-8 3-6 1-3 Oakland, @Cleveland, @Pittsburgh
Clinching Scenarios: NONE (for what should be obvious reasons)
Elimination Scenarios: Cleveland is eliminated from the AFC North race with a loss or a Pittsburgh win. Cleveland is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, and a win by EITHER Indy or Tennessee. Cincinnati is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss. Cincinnati is also eliminated with a win by EITHER Indy or Tennessee AND a win by either Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Cincinnati is eliminated from the AFC North race with a win by either Pittsburgh or Baltimore.
AFC South
The Houston Texans are still firmly in control of this division, but my feelings of 'fraud' regarding them were reinforced this past week. IMHO Indy is probably a better team right now, but sheer momentum is very likely to give the Texans the division. Indy and Tenn are vying with Baltimore for wildcard spots and have easier schedules than many. Keep tuned.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Houston 9-4 7-3 3-2 @NY Jets, @Philadelphia, Jacksonville
Indy 7-6 6-5 3-2 Dallas, NY Giants, @Tenn
Tenn 7-6 5-6 3-2 @NY Giants, Washington, Indy
Jax (e) 4-9 3-7 1-4 Washington, @Miami, @Houston
Clinching Scenario: Houston can clinch the division with a win and Indy loss and Tenn loss.
Elimination Scenarios: Per above, Indy is eliminated from the AFC North race with a loss and Houston win. Likewise Tenn is eliminated from the AFC North race with a loss and Houston win.
AFC West
This division is coming down to a dogfight between the division leading Kansas City Chiefs and the runner up LA Chargers. Denver is still alive (just) but Oakland is reduced to being a spoiler while planning for 2019.
Name Record Conf. Div. Last Three
Chiefs-x 11-2 9-1 4-0 LA Chargers, @Seattle, Oakland
LA Chargers 10-3 7-2 2-2 @Kansas City, Baltimore, @Denver
Denver 6-7 4-5 2-2 Cleveland, @Oakland, LA Chargers
Oakland (e) 3-10 2-7 0-4 @Cincinnati, Denver, @Kansas City
Clinching Scenarios: There are several. Edit: Because Houston has three conference loses and if Kansas City wins, they could have at most two, Houston would lose to Kansas City on any 1-1 tiebreak. This changes my scenarios slightly.
1) Kansas City can clinch home field advantage with a WIN + New England Loss
2) Kansas City can clinch a first round bye with a WIN
4) LA Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a WIN
5) LA Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a Miami loss, Baltimore Loss, Indy Loss, and Tenn Loss
Elimination Scenarios: LA Chargers are eliminated from the AFC West race with a LOSS. There are no other elimination scenarios in week 15. Oakland is already eliminated.
*whew* I hope you find this useful!
