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49ers don't think they can afford to re-sign Armistead

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  • https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/1 ... ce-report/

    The San Francisco 49ers would like to re-sign defensive end Arik Armstead but don't feel that they will be able to, according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN. The fifth-year defender racked up a team-leading 10 sacks this season, not including the two he had in the postseason. He is one of several players scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the start of the new league year on March 18.

    "A 49ers source said the team wants to re-sign Armstead," writes Fowler, "but believes he has played himself into big, big money."

    ...

    San Francisco is projected to have about $12 million in salary-cap space (sixth-least in the NFL), according to ESPN, and have contract extensions for players like tight end George Kittle and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to consider.
    SantaClaraHawk
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  • Their window is closing already.
    Sprfunk
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  • IMO we should consider Armistead and JS probably will.
    TreeRon
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  • Sprfunk wrote:Their window is closing already.

    And it begins. < insert evil laugh track here >. 8)
    Sports Hernia
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  • This isn't a shock. They have 5 starters hitting free agency and (technically, although 12M is probably more realistic) about $20M in cap space. Armstead is likely looking at a contract north of $15M/Year.

    He's kind of a 1 year wonder, and he plays the only position on the DL where the Seahawk's have reasonable depth/potential. Kind of feels like our cap space would be better spent elsewhere.
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  • Sports Hernia wrote:
    Sprfunk wrote:Their window is closing already.

    And it begins. < insert evil laugh track here >. 8)


    Better yet.....

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  • knownone wrote:This isn't a shock. They have 5 starters hitting free agency and (technically, although 12M is probably more realistic) about $20M in cap space. Armstead is likely looking at a contract north of $15M/Year.

    He's kind of a 1 year wonder, and he plays the only position on the DL where the Seahawk's have reasonable depth/potential. Kind of feels like our cap space would be better spent elsewhere.


    Curious why you think the Hawks don't need help on the DL while many of us, me included, think the opposite. Even if we sign Clowney, it's basically Poona and him. All the rest are woulda, coulda, shoulda.
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  • Seahawkfan80 wrote:
    Sports Hernia wrote:
    Sprfunk wrote:Their window is closing already.

    And it begins. < insert evil laugh track here >. 8)


    Better yet.....


    Well played sir, well played! :2thumbs:
    Sports Hernia
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  • Sports Hernia wrote:
    Sprfunk wrote:Their window is closing already.

    And it begins. < insert evil laugh track here >. 8)



    He is the one hit wonder that the hawks will sign and ince he sucks (like he did his whole career in SF) you all will cry about it. The guy was good THIS YEAR because of Ford, Bosa and Buckner. To many pass rushers to watch. Before this season Armstead was a bust prospect.
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  • rlkats wrote:
    Sports Hernia wrote:
    Sprfunk wrote:Their window is closing already.

    And it begins. < insert evil laugh track here >. 8)



    He is the one hit wonder that the hawks will sign and ince he sucks (like he did his whole career in SF) you all will cry about it. The guy was good THIS YEAR because of Ford, Bosa and Buckner. To many pass rushers to watch. Before this season Armstead was a bust prospect.

    It wouldn’t shock me if Seattle signed him, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he sucked.
    I wouldn’t cry about it though. 8)
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  • TreeRon wrote:
    knownone wrote:This isn't a shock. They have 5 starters hitting free agency and (technically, although 12M is probably more realistic) about $20M in cap space. Armstead is likely looking at a contract north of $15M/Year.

    He's kind of a 1 year wonder, and he plays the only position on the DL where the Seahawk's have reasonable depth/potential. Kind of feels like our cap space would be better spent elsewhere.


    Curious why you think the Hawks don't need help on the DL while many of us, me included, think the opposite. Even if we sign Clowney, it's basically Poona and him. All the rest are woulda, coulda, shoulda.

    Where did I say they didn't need help on the DL? Armstead fills the same role as Green, Collier, and Jefferson. If he gets what he's expected to get in free agency (15-20 million/year), then I don't think he's worth the risk considering what they've already invested into that spot. That doesn't mean I don't think we need help on the DL. I just don't trust that level of investment in a guy who had 9 sacks in his first 4 seasons and suddenly puts up 10 sacks in a contract year.
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  • They could absolutely franchise tag Armstead if they want to: it just means letting Ward and Sanders walk.

    Most likely I think is what happened with both Frank Clark and Dee Ford last year, in that they franchise him and then trade him. They need the picks, and they're not going to give 18-22 APY to three people on their d-line. It's just not going to happen.

    As for this being a sign of the "decline", LOL.

    The 9ers won't go back to the Super Bowl next year because they'll regress to the mean, just as Armstead likely will too.

    Anyone who think the 49ers will regress to the mean next year BECAUSE they don't have Armstead next year is delusional.
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  • Popeyejones wrote:They could absolutely franchise tag Armstead if they want to: it just means letting Ward and Sanders walk.

    I'm genuinely curious, can they tag him if it puts them over the cap? The tag is technically more than the cap space they have.
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  • "Armstead fills the same role as Green, Collier, and Jefferson." Like I said Green Collier and Jefferson....woulda, coulda and shoulda.

    WE need as close certain compliment to Clowney as we can find. Hoping that someone who's never performed at a high level before will do it in the future doesn't cut it.
    If one of those guys steps up next year great, as depth is always important.
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  • knownone wrote:
    Popeyejones wrote:They could absolutely franchise tag Armstead if they want to: it just means letting Ward and Sanders walk.

    I'm genuinely curious, can they tag him if it puts them over the cap? The tag is technically more than the cap space they have.


    The franchise tag is 18 million.

    They have a low first round pick and no second or third round pick, so they really only need about 3.5-4 million for their rookie pool.


    They currently have 14 million in cap space.

    They have another 9 million in cap space from this year that they can roll over to next year.

    Cutting McKinnon and Goodwin (both of whom absolutely aren't coming back) saves them another 9 million.

    That alone gets them up to 32 million, minus 4 million for draft picks and 18 million for armstead, still leaving 10 million under the cap.

    Just to be very clear though, I'm not saying they WILL do this or SHOULD do this, I'm simply saying the COULD do this if they wanted to.

    As far as that goes, I don't think they will do this, nor do I think they should do this.

    Even if they franchise and keep Armstead it's incredibly unlikely they'll be keeping him long term. The only way they'd do it is if they cut Dee Ford, which I don't they're going to do (even if I think the idea of it is more interesting than the reality of it actually happening). The play, I think, is to franchise and trade Armstead rather than having him for one year. This is still overall a very young team and they're on the low end of the spectrum on "win now" mode (which every team that finishes at .500 or above is in to some degree). They're much better off getting draft picks for long term cost control than getting a one year rental from Armstead IMO, and I think they know that too.


    EDIT: And if anyone cares, just saw another take on this, although by the figures being cited it sounds like the idea here is to keep Armstead long term (warning that there is a SERIOUS mismatch between the title of the article and it's actual contents -- if you read the article and what he's proposing the "very different" 9ers team is substantively the exact same 9ers team minus Emannuel Sanders :lol: -- from where I sit the development of Deebo Samuels and Kendrick Bourne, the return of Taylor and Hurd and the chance that Pettis returns to form really, really, really means they don't need to resign a 33 year old Emmanuel Sanders).

    https://www.ninersnation.com/2020/2/5/2 ... eam-in-202
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  • I don't get all the rhetoric that they're gonna cut Sanders given that he saved their 2019 season. No one knows how Taylor/Hurd is coming back. Last year, the same things were said about McKinnon. Why not attempt to sign Sanders to a team-friendly deal and have him go through camp?
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  • SantaClaraHawk wrote:I don't get all the rhetoric that they're gonna cut Sanders given that he saved their 2019 season. No one knows how Taylor/Hurd is coming back. Last year, the same things were said about McKinnon. Why not attempt to sign Sanders to a team-friendly deal and have him go through camp?


    That's the rub.

    1) They won't cut him...he's a free agent.
    2) While he was a boon this year, he's on the wrong side of 30 and is slowing down.
    3) I think they would look to sign him to team friendly deal, but I have no idea what he wants to do as this is likely his last free agency.

    WR is a position they need to improve. Samuel looks like a keeper and I like what we saw in very limited action from Hurd, but I don't think they'll bank everything on Sanders being the #1 WR.

    As for all of it falling apart already...lol. You guys are funny. :)

    Arik had like 4 or 5 CAREER sacks before this season and so many were calling him a bust. Now its like "OMG, they will lose Armstead...its falling apart!".

    I'd like to keep him, but my guess is they won't. I DON'T want them to sign him to big dollars because he has a history of injuries and of so-so play. If he leaves, they still have Bosa, Buckner and Ford. I'm good.
    Last edited by Marvin49 on Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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  • SantaClaraHawk wrote:I don't get all the rhetoric that they're gonna cut Sanders given that he saved their 2019 season. No one knows how Taylor/Hurd is coming back. Last year, the same things were said about McKinnon. Why not attempt to sign Sanders to a team-friendly deal and have him go through camp?


    It's definitely possible and I agree that he played a very big role in a very tough stretch for them, but I think he's likely a luxury they can't afford.

    Deebo and Bourne both ate into some of his role as the season progressed, and they have a whole bunch of resources tied into the position that they'd be paying for him to stand in front of.

    It's entirely possible that Taylor + Hurd + Pettis collectively don't equal what they get from Sanders, but I think that has to be the dice they're rolling on this one, and in some ways it's dice they've already rolled (if Hurd and Taylor didn't end up on IR they wouldn't have ever had Sanders to begin with, IMO).
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  • Popeyejones wrote:
    SantaClaraHawk wrote:I don't get all the rhetoric that they're gonna cut Sanders given that he saved their 2019 season. No one knows how Taylor/Hurd is coming back. Last year, the same things were said about McKinnon. Why not attempt to sign Sanders to a team-friendly deal and have him go through camp?


    It's definitely possible and I agree that he played a very big role in a very tough stretch for them, but I think he's likely a luxury they can't afford.

    Deebo and Bourne both ate into some of his role as the season progressed, and they have a whole bunch of resources tied into the position that they'd be paying for him to stand in front of.

    It's entirely possible that Taylor + Hurd + Pettis collectively don't equal what they get from Sanders, but I think that has to be the dice they're rolling on this one, and in some ways it's dice they've already rolled (if Hurd and Taylor didn't end up on IR they wouldn't have ever had Sanders to begin with, IMO).


    I think that's accurate.
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  • TreeRon wrote:"Armstead fills the same role as Green, Collier, and Jefferson." Like I said Green Collier and Jefferson....woulda, coulda and shoulda.

    WE need as close certain compliment to Clowney as we can find. Hoping that someone who's never performed at a high level before will do it in the future doesn't cut it.
    If one of those guys steps up next year great, as depth is always important.


    If you guys go after him, more power to ya.

    Armstead is a big dude with power, but he's not exactly a great edge rusher. He got a HUGE benefit from getting singled up all year with Bosa on the other side and rushed from inside quite a bit.

    I don't want to make out like he sucks, because he doesn't. He's good. He just isn't irreplaceable and he isn't worth the contract he'll be offered.
    Marvin49
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  • Marvin49 wrote:
    TreeRon wrote:"Armstead fills the same role as Green, Collier, and Jefferson." Like I said Green Collier and Jefferson....woulda, coulda and shoulda.

    WE need as close certain compliment to Clowney as we can find. Hoping that someone who's never performed at a high level before will do it in the future doesn't cut it.
    If one of those guys steps up next year great, as depth is always important.


    If you guys go after him, more power to ya.

    Armstead is a big dude with power, but he's not exactly a great edge rusher. He got a HUGE benefit from getting singled up all year with Bosa on the other side and rushed from inside quite a bit.

    I don't want to make out like he sucks, because he doesn't. He's good. He just isn't irreplaceable and he isn't worth the contract he'll be offered.


    Both in terms of how to use him and in terms of ability, I think his ceiling is Michael Bennett. He has been injured so much that the floor is basically a much less reliable Michael Bennett.

    Someone who signs him hoping for an edge rusher is going to be disappointed, though.
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  • I think that Armstead finally found a role in a system that worked for him and the hiring of Kris Kocurek and the wide 9 alignment allowed a role.

    Regarding our window closing, I think that is wishful thinking. Ronald Blair (IR and FA) and DJ Jones (IR) would be starting DL on any team. Trent Taylor WR is Jimmys biggest target and was tearing up camp before he broke his foot. We may not win the NFC west next year but we stand to be a thorn in the Seahawks side for the foreseeable future.
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  • 94Smith wrote:I think that Armstead finally found a role in a system that worked for him and the hiring of Kris Kocurek and the wide 9 alignment allowed a role.

    Regarding our window closing, I think that is wishful thinking. Ronald Blair (IR and FA) and DJ Jones (IR) would be starting DL on any team. Trent Taylor WR is Jimmys biggest target and was tearing up camp before he broke his foot. We may not win the NFC west next year but we stand to be a thorn in the Seahawks side for the foreseeable future.


    I think you're overrating our own guys (I like Blair, Jones, and Taylor too, but I mean... :lol: ), but fully agreed that (barring major, major injuries) I'd be surprised if the 49ers aren't at least back in the playoff hunt next year.

    Probably not nearly as surprised as I was about them being in the Super Bowl this year, but still surprised. :lol:
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  • Popeyejones wrote:
    94Smith wrote:I think that Armstead finally found a role in a system that worked for him and the hiring of Kris Kocurek and the wide 9 alignment allowed a role.

    Regarding our window closing, I think that is wishful thinking. Ronald Blair (IR and FA) and DJ Jones (IR) would be starting DL on any team. Trent Taylor WR is Jimmys biggest target and was tearing up camp before he broke his foot. We may not win the NFC west next year but we stand to be a thorn in the Seahawks side for the foreseeable future.


    I think you're overrating our own guys (I like Blair, Jones, and Taylor too, but I mean... :lol: ), but fully agreed that (barring major, major injuries) I'd be surprised if the 49ers aren't at least back in the playoff hunt next year.

    Probably not nearly as surprised as I was about them being in the Super Bowl this year, but still surprised. :lol:



    I'd be surprised if they weren't in the playoff hunt too.

    I expect under Shanahan for the offense to be fine.

    But that defense could easily fall apart. For one thing, the sum of the whole was much greater than the individual parts - this is what you want obviously and a great nod to Saleh. But when you break it down, you see how it could easily go wrong:

    first, the run d was bad. 4.5 YPC allowed was 10th worst in the NFL.

    second, we saw games where the pass rush was contained and the D looked bad - most of this was due to injury - Falcons and Rams games come to mind. But losing Armstead could be comparable to that.

    third, we saw it with the Bears this year: it's nearly impossible to duplicate historically good defensive performances, and the Niners had that this year with their pass D.

    When you add these up with the Super Bowl loss, I'd be surprised if the Niners didn't have the same experience that the Rams had this year.
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  • ^^^^Yeah, defensive performance is really volatile, which we already even saw across the season (they went from one of the best defenses all time in the first half of the year to just one of the best defenses of the year by the end).

    IIRC top defenses usually stay in the top 3rd of defenses the next year, but rarely at the actual top again.

    There's a real chance that there's not a bad team in the NFCW next year, and the division is wide open.
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  • Armstead has already said he is open to the franchise tag. I think the priority of Armstead, Ward and Sanders is Armstead in my opinion.

    I think the key missing piece here and the anchor in the run game that most of you are not thinking about is DJ jones. This guy is really good as well
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  • 94Smith wrote:Armstead has already said he is open to the franchise tag. I think the priority of Armstead, Ward and Sanders is Armstead in my opinion.

    I think the key missing piece here and the anchor in the run game that most of you are not thinking about is DJ jones. This guy is really good as well


    I don't expect the 9ers to shed Jones as he's still cheaply signed through 2020.

    Despite his injury history, Ward had a mostly healthy and productive 2019 showing KS/JL that he could live up to the "swiss army knife" rep they wanted him to. He's said he wants to stay in SF, SF doesn't have someone they like better at FS, and they can likely get him on a team friendly deal.

    If Armstead leaves, the market might well mean Seattle won't get him either.

    I'm fairly sure they will try to trade Thomas, but I think they'll try to hold onto the rest.
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