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NFL cuts preseason in half

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NFL cuts preseason in half
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:32 pm
  • https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2 ... n-in-half/

    So week one and four of preseason are now eliminated.

    Personally I am starting to question if and esp how games can go forward.

    They're talking about resurrecting a field hospital where the Texans play. Where the Cards play is running out of ICU beds. LA County has the largest rate increase in state of California and now Newsom has put down more restrictions on it. Santa Clara is now on the state watchlist.

    All those plans about having a bubble in safe areas have kinda gone out the window. I guess we'll see if the NBA pulls it off but the hopes are increasingly dimming here.
    SantaClaraHawk
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Re: NFL cuts preseason in half
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:03 am
  • I think a lot of this will be determined in the next 1 to 2 weeks. Despite the logarithmic rise in confirmed cases, the absolute number of deaths continues to drop. One could argue the inflection point for the start of the logarithmic rise occurred on the 8th of June, but the latest date one could argue for an inflection point is the 15th.


    14 days from the 15th was 3 days ago. If the number of deaths doesn't start to rise this week, we will have to rethink what the rising case count represents. There are clearly regions who are experiencing a higher load of acute cases, requiring hospitalization, and regions with minimal impact. IMHO, this thing will continue to move through the population in a regional fashion, just like the flu does. Think waves moving through in an ocean, with peaks and troughs, rather than the slow, uniform rise of a river flood. It is not unheard of to have hospitals completely overwhelmed by flu. If you go back and read some of the stories of hallways lined with patients, and overflow tents for the sick, you would probably think you are reading about Covid.

    What does this mean for football? I honestly believe that the most likely scenario for salvaging a football season is a continued increase in total cases, combined with a continued drop in deaths followed by stabilization at a lower level. If we get to the point that a IFR of less than 0.3 is undeniable, and we have a better sense of who is at risk, football may still happen.

    I don't think it is risk to the players themselves that will result in changes to the season. Rather, it is risk to the coaches with comorbidities (think Andy Reid and Bruce Arians) that will make it difficult to pull off a season.

    I still believe there will be a season, but the next 2 weeks could change my opinion.
    bigskydoc
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Re: NFL cuts preseason in half
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:24 am
  • Well, Pete and Belichick are among other coaches at high risk due to age.

    We'll have to see like you said. The signs from MLB are not good however with the labor negotiations and with now players walking away from their millions. And that's baseball, which is a lot less risk than say a scrum pile.
    SantaClaraHawk
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Re: NFL cuts preseason in half
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:09 pm
  • Age isn't really considered an independent risk factor anymore. It's just a marker for the likelihood of the presence of comorbidities, that are independent risk factors.

    As one of the more fit coaches in the league, Pete is likely not at significantly elevated risk. He is slightly more likely to have a minor comorbidity, like hypertension or diabetes, than the average head coach.

    I'm more worried about all the morbidly obese position coaches. There are a lot of those guys, and that is one of the biggest risk factors for severe disease.
    bigskydoc
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Re: NFL cuts preseason in half
Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:13 pm
  • Clinical obesity is built into some positions in the league, like OL. I can't remember the last time I saw a skinny lineman, they are encouraged to put on a lot of weight very quickly. You know, moving force meets immovable object.

    And now we're hearing that most of those in hospitals now are younger people. If just one of the 2300 or thereabouts NFL players is among them, that will raise the alarm ratio significantly.
    SantaClaraHawk
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Re: NFL cuts preseason in half
Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:20 pm
  • The 41 year old actor that passed away changes some of the statistics. I agree with Doc tho. As this virus actually goes thru the country and people do get infected, there will be those like my ninie friend that has the antibodies.

    A friend of mine that does not drink but does Bike as in mountain bike caught this in January. He said that at the end of it he felt like he had gone up a large hill about 26 miles and back down that hill and was still trying to catch his breath. He is in very great shape...better than me by a long shot. He is also about 10 year younger too. He coughed a lot of mucus and blood out of his lungs.

    Stay safe Seahawk familly.
    Seahawkfan80
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