Report: Patriots will not likely franchise Wes Welker

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/2964/wes-welker

Someone with "intimate knowledge of the team’s thinking" tells Boston Herald columnist Ron Borges the Patriots won't use the franchise tag on free agent Wes Welker.

It means there's a strong chance Welker will walk, as it's highly doubtful the frugal Pats would be Welker's top bidder on the open market. Welker would be due $11.4 if franchise tagged for the second consecutive season. That's hardly a burdensome sum for a player with Welker's track record, but steep for a team with a top-heavy cap situation. The Pats have two weeks to change their mind, but there's little reason to believe they will.

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You cant fault Bill, yet, but he gets kinda Harbaugh-ey with the games he plays with players. He began this treatment w/Welker in the beginning of last year. Rodney Harrison slipped and let out of the bag that Welker's early-season lack of targets we're pseudo-intentional with Bill playing his Bill game(s). If Bill coached the Hawks Lynch would be getting this treatment for his postseason fumbles. No doubt in my mind.

In Seattle we've learned 1st hand Brady makes the WR in most instances. Welker is still good, but he's not really the WR his numbers say they are while in NE.

They tried to let Welker know they didn't need him early in the season, but Edelman wasn't cutting it.

However, Pe is right, Brady's uber quick thinking and release mesh with Welker's uber quick get off and target presentation. Welker is unlikely to find another QB who has that quick decision making, and his numbers will suffer unfairly.

Scottemojo":2qi8cqrr said:

They tried to let Welker know they didn't need him early in the season, but Edelman wasn't cutting it.

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But, Bill would NEVER admit or concede that. All the great coaches are stubborn assholes. Goes with the territory.

Bill's a fascinating study. Brady's brilliance and nature allow Bill to get away with these passive-aggressive games. I have a feeling we'll see Pete display some of his stubbornness within the next few years too. It'll never be as blatant or odd, but Wilson bought Pete some leeway.

Scottemojo":3eztsjot said:

Welker is unlikely to find another QB who has that quick decision making, and his numbers will suffer unfairly.

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Granted, Brady is obviously in the upper echelon of QBs in the game right now, but I could see Welker producing similar (or better) numbers with a team like Denver or New Orleans. Those are the only two QBs I think that could propel Welker to even higher numbers, though I am unsure of how much of play they would make for him. It wouldn't surprise me though, to see Welker seek out either of those two situations.

HawksFTW":1z8mw7c6 said:

Scottemojo":1z8mw7c6 said:

Welker is unlikely to find another QB who has that quick decision making, and his numbers will suffer unfairly.

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Granted, Brady is obviously in the upper echelon of QBs in the game right now, but I could see Welker producing similar (or better) numbers with a team like Denver or New Orleans. Those are the only two QBs I think that could propel Welker to even higher numbers, though I am unsure of how much of play they would make for him. It wouldn't surprise me though, to see Welker seek out either of those two situations.

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I would put Green Bay and Seattle in there as far as the QB being able to handle it. Green Bay (and NO also) spread the ball around a lot though and he might see reduced targets. Seattle is not pass happy and isn't likely to spend money on a Welker type guy. I think in Denver he would get a lot of targets from Manning. With Thomas, Decker and Welker Manning would have a heyday.

Something tells me New England will sign Amendola for less anyway, then forget Welker's phone number.

JesterHawk":29x5hqck said:

I would put Green Bay and Seattle in there as far as the QB being able to handle it. Green Bay (and NO also) spread the ball around a lot though and he might see reduced targets. Seattle is not pass happy and isn't likely to spend money on a Welker type guy. I think in Denver he would get a lot of targets from Manning. With Thomas, Decker and Welker Manning would have a heyday.

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I thought about both Seattle and Green Bay, and I agree they are quite capable of fitting a guy like Welker into their system. I think in fact they both already have players on their squad in similar roles. I didn't put them down for a few reasons, though you wouldn't have to twist my arm too much to include them. In Seattle, I just have a hard time believing Russell will ever throw the 40-50 times a game Welker would need to keep those stats up (not that he couldn't). And then for GB, Scott specifically said a quick decision QB, which I don't really think Rodgers is, at least nothing comparable to the rest of the names in this thread. He holds the ball a TON, and is one of the most sacked QBs. But, outside of that I think Welker would be great there, as well.

New Orleans has the propensity to spread the ball around, but have also produced some skill players with eye popping numbers over the past few years. Jimmy Graham, Colston, Sproles, have all had years where they racked up stats, because even though they spread the ball around, Brees is still throwing damn near 50 times a game. You look at their skill positions today, and it isn't as full of talent as it used to be. I could see Welker being a great fit there, seeing how they have used Lance Moore a lot like Welker over the years. Unfortunately, I think New Orleans is in no position to sign him; they are pretty hard up against the cap.

I agree with you on Denver, it just makes too much sense. Denver will be in contention for the immediate future, and it would give Welker a shot at playing against NE in the playoffs (if he at all has resentment towards BB).

Scottemojo":29x5hqck said:

Something tells me New England will sign Amendola for less anyway, then forget Welker's phone number.

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I have read some rumors that Amendola is supposedly asking for a salary near $10mil. Granted, they are just rumors, but I could see Amendola having an inflated sense of worth. That, and the little bit of leverage STL tried to get (Young) they already showed the door, so he might be trying to press his luck with STL. I don't see the Patriots overpaying Amendola, especially with his injury history, if he is asking for that much, though.

I wouldn't be surprised to see NE make a play for Harvin if they let Welker walk, that is probably a stretch though. There are also people saying Lloyd could be on his way out, and Edelman is a FA I believe. So, trade for a known quantity and draft a WR. I think in all likely hood, they let Welker walk, re-sign Edelman, and draft someone to stretch the field. Give Hernandez and Edelman the Welker routes, the combo could pick up any slack.

Welker may not find the same success elsewhere but that isn't what the Patriots should care one bit about.

The patriots should care about if THEY are going to find the same success with someone else.

Sign Amendola and get get 6 games / season ..........

Get someone else and they may or may not work. I understand why they wouldn't want to spend $11 million on Welker but this is a risk for them and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Bill wanted to prove the point that they don't need Welker and ended up proving the opposite. Now he needs to solve the problem

From a Seahawks perspective I think we have bigger needs for the $10 million alternatively if we spent it on a WR it would be on someone like Bowe

Welker should be a target of the new San Diego regime...quick receivers that get themselves separation can also thrive catching balls from Phillip Rivers...see the numbers he put up with Sproles, Gates (when he was in his prime and could get open), and Vincent Jackson. Too bad the Chargers haven't had a receiver worth a darn in two years, or Rivers would still be elite. They get Welker and watch out,

HawksFTW":39hxlwh7 said:

New Orleans has the propensity to spread the ball around, but have also produced some skill players with eye popping numbers over the past few years. Jimmy Graham, Colston, Sproles, have all had years where they racked up stats, because even though they spread the ball around, Brees is still throwing damn near 50 times a game. You look at their skill positions today, and it isn't as full of talent as it used to be. I could see Welker being a great fit there, seeing how they have used Lance Moore a lot like Welker over the years. Unfortunately, I think New Orleans is in no position to sign him; they are pretty hard up against the cap.

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Well hot damn. You pretty much just said everything I was coming in here to say. LOL. I'd LOVE him, but as you stated, we're pretty pinned with the cap. If I'm not mistaken, after releasing David Thomas and waiving Johnny Patrick, we're sitting at $14M over the cap. But if there's anything I've ever learned as a Saints fan, is never doubt the powers of Mickey Loomis. That man is a genius when it comes to working the cap in our favor.

:mrgreen:

IronSaint":37g121lg said:

HawksFTW":37g121lg said:

New Orleans has the propensity to spread the ball around, but have also produced some skill players with eye popping numbers over the past few years. Jimmy Graham, Colston, Sproles, have all had years where they racked up stats, because even though they spread the ball around, Brees is still throwing damn near 50 times a game. You look at their skill positions today, and it isn't as full of talent as it used to be. I could see Welker being a great fit there, seeing how they have used Lance Moore a lot like Welker over the years. Unfortunately, I think New Orleans is in no position to sign him; they are pretty hard up against the cap.

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Well hot damn. You pretty much just said everything I was coming in here to say. LOL. I'd LOVE him, but as you stated, we're pretty pinned with the cap. If I'm not mistaken, after releasing David Thomas and waiving Johnny Patrick, we're sitting at $14M over the cap. But if there's anything I've ever learned as a Saints fan, is never doubt the powers of Mickey Loomis. That man is a genius when it comes to working the cap in our favor.

:mrgreen:

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Keep digging the hole deeper and buying a taller ladder every year. Eventually you won't be able to find a tall enough ladder to climb out.

Bitter":2ekppd6l said:

Keep digging the hole deeper and buying a taller ladder every year. Eventually you won't be able to find a tall enough ladder to climb out.

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I understand your skepticism kind sir, hell I even catch myself looking at the cap and thinking, "how in the hell is he going to fix this?" But he just does. From what I've read is he's planning around the cap 4-5 years ahead. Next year I believe the cap is supposed to rise considerably.