Week 15 - Pick your dogs

drdiags · Dec 10, 2013

Here are this week's underdogs (Cowboys vs Packers is a Pick-em)

Favorite	Underdog	Point Spread
@Broncos	Chargers	10.5
Patriots	@Dolphins	2.0
Bills	@Jaguars	2.0
@Colts	Texans	6.0
Eagles	@Vikings	4.5
Seahawks	@NY Giants	7.0
9ers	@Tampa Bay	4.5
@Browns	Bears	1.5
@Falcons	Washington	6.0
@Panthers	Jets	11.0
Chiefs	@Raiders	4.5
Cardinals	@Titans	3.0
Saints	@Rams	5.5
Bengals	@Steelers	3.0
@Lions	Ravens	6.0
@Cowboys	Packers	Pick-Em

The following is only for those seeking bragging rights:

Week 14 winner
------------------

.NET handicapper	# of Picks	Beat the Spread	Lost to the Spread	Won Outright	Lost Outright	RD Factor
rsm650	4	1	0	1	2	1.00

This week's players
----------------------

.NET handicapper	# of Picks	Beat the Spread	Lost to the Spread	Won Outright	Lost Outright	RD Factor
aawolf	6	3	0	3	0	6.75
Cartire	5	3	0	2	0	5.25
DrDiags	4	0	0	3	1	5.00
Scottemojo	4	0	0	3	1	5.00
HFSD1	4	1	0	2	1	4.00
davidonmi	5	1	1	3	0	3.75
RolandDeschain	4	2	0	1	1	3.00
ClumsyLurk	3	0	0	2	1	3.00
ivotuk	8	0	0	4	4	3.00
KCHawkGirl	9	3	1	3	2	2.50
Polaris	6	2	1	2	1	2.25
AbsolutNET	5	2	1	1	1	0.75
Seahawkfan80	7	5	2	0	0	0.75
rsm650	1	0	0	0	1	-1.00
OkieHawk	6	2	2	1	1	-1.25

LEGEND
---------

Pick Total
----------
Pick outright winner - 2 pts
Pick spread winner - 1 pt
Miss outright winner - (-1pt)
Miss cover - (-2pts)

Scale Factor (used as multiplier of Pick Total)
--------------------------------------------
1 -4 picks = use multiplier of 1 times total value
5 -8 picks = 0.75 (if positive) or 1.25 (if negative)
9-12 picks = 0.50 (if positive) or 1.50 (if negative)
13-16 picks = 0.25 (if positive) or 1.75 (if negative)

drdiags · Dec 10, 2013

I have 4 outright winners:

Jags - Gus has his team on a roll. MJD missing would hurt but Buffalo is scaling back offense for Manuel so I think the game is close.

Bears - Not sure why the pt spread is as close as it is but I think the Bears can score with the Browns and have more to lose.

Steelers - I don't trust Andy Dalton. I am going with the home team on this one.

Ravens - I also don't trust the Lions. They probably play out of their minds at home but it is hard for me to take new blood over old until they prove solid.

OkieHawk · Dec 10, 2013

Man, these are some ugly choices this week, but here goes.

Cover: Jets, Ravens, TB, Texans

Outright: Bears, Jags

As far as the pick 'em...can I choose elimination by meteor strike on the field? No? Ok, the Cowgirls then, Rodgers is still out and even in December Romo is better than Flynn.

Polaris · Dec 10, 2013

Not a good week for me last week but here goes:

Win Outright: Jags, Bears, Steelers
Cover: Tampa, Jets, Rams

hawksfansinceday1 · Dec 10, 2013

Cover: Seahawks, Eagles

Outright: Jags, Dolphins

(Pats have been doing it with smoke and mirrors.....the smoke clears this week. Plus, that win in the snow in Pissburgh impressed me. That's the type of game Miami has lost since the inception of the franchise in 1966).

AbsolutNET · Dec 10, 2013

Beat the spread:
Chargers
Jets
Giants (I'd take the Hawks to cover at 6.5)

To win:
Bears
Cowboys
Jags

I just realized that I've been picking underdogs to beat the spread but I've been saying "cover the spread.'

drdiags · Dec 10, 2013

Once again this shows I should not try to act like I am familiar to the betting lingo. I was looking at the underdog and was using cover to mean the underdog loses by less than the spread. Looking at the semantics of "beat the spread" vs "cover" in my feeble mind it was always from the underdog's perspective. I now see that for our case, I should have not used cover, since that is from the winning team's perspective.

So in our case, pick the underdog to "beat the spread" or win outright. If you used cover with an underdog, I will assume you are thinking along the same lines as I am.

With all that said, HFSD1 you picked two favorites (Seahawks/Eagles) and said they would cover. I need underdogs only.

Cartire · Dec 10, 2013

bears and rams win outright

jets and ravens and skins beat the spread

hawksfansinceday1 · Dec 10, 2013

drdiags":37gx8f5p said:
Once again this shows I should not try to act like I am familiar to the betting lingo. I was looking at the underdog and was using cover to mean the underdog loses by less than the spread. Looking at the semantics of "beat the spread" vs "cover" in my feeble mind it was always from the underdog's perspective. I now see that for our case, I should have not used cover, since that is from the winning team's perspective.

So in our case, pick the underdog to "beat the spread" or win outright. If you used cover with an underdog, I will assume you are thinking along the same lines as I am.

With all that said, HFSD1 you picked two favorites (Seahawks/Eagles) and said they would cover. I need underdogs only.

:34853_doh:

OK, starting over.............

Win outright: Jags, Dolphins, Bears

Cover: Chargers

Scottemojo · Dec 10, 2013

Win: Jags, Fins, Bears, Rams.

rsm650 · Dec 10, 2013

Giants win :229031_shrug:

ClumsyLurk · Dec 10, 2013

Texans
Bears
Ravens

Let it roll!

MizzouHawkGal · Dec 10, 2013

This week is ugly so my question is can you pick the favorite to beat the spread? If so give me until tomorrow for my picks. If not the Jags to win and I will think on if anything else is worth the bother.

RolandDeschain · Dec 10, 2013

Lol, I was doing so well, now the last two weeks have been an absolute slaughter for me. For shame.

Spread: Chargers, Jets

Win: Jaguars, Bears

MizzouHawkGal · Dec 10, 2013

My Captain Insano picks are Dolphins, Bears and Ravens to win and Jets, Raiders to beat the spread. Plus the Jags to win.

aawolf · Dec 11, 2013

I'll play this week:

Outright Winners: Bears; Steelers; Dolphins

Beat the Spread: Chargers, Jets, Ravens

Cartire · Dec 11, 2013

I see cousins is starting. I'm adding skins to beat the spread. I'll put it in my original post

drdiags · Dec 11, 2013

Cartire":2374ppjc said:
I see cousins is starting. I'm adding skins to beat the spread. I'll put it in my original post

Thanks! I will update my offline file I use to calculate the RD factor.

drdiags · Dec 11, 2013

KCHawkGirl":3joje9x0 said:
This week is ugly so my question is can you pick the favorite to beat the spread? If so give me until tomorrow for my picks. If not the Jags to win and I will think on if anything else is worth the bother.

My thinking is we only pick underdogs to either beat the spread or win outright. Favorites will not count in the RD Factoring. I also will not count any "Pick-em" selections for the "I am the man/woman" weekly calculations.

hawksfansinceday1 · Dec 11, 2013

drdiags":1e5u37d5 said:
KCHawkGirl":1e5u37d5 said:

This week is ugly so my question is can you pick the favorite to beat the spread? If so give me until tomorrow for my picks. If not the Jags to win and I will think on if anything else is worth the bother.

Click to expand...

My thinking is we only pick underdogs to either beat the spread or win outright. Favorites will not count in the RD Factoring. I also will not count any "Pick-em" selections for the "I am the man/woman" weekly calculations.

Yeah I tried to take the Hawks and give the 7 this week and got spanked by the Doc

So no go KCHawkGirl.

Week 15 - Pick your dogs

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