^^^ Yep. I feel the same way. Feeling cocksure about any single game is a path toward disappointment, IMO.
For whatever reason I always think about games in blocks. I slice out a section of the schedule and then think about what's reasonable, and what would have me concerned on one end or happy on the other.
For instance (talked about this a couple times here in Week 9) like most people I had sectioned weeks 10-14 as an important "block" for the 9ers (Panthers, @ Saints, @ Redskins, Rams, Hawks). Looking at that block I figured 3-2 was pretty reasonable, and my thinking worked like this:
0-5 Major problem (I absolutely need to re-evaluate what I think about this team)
1-4 Big problem (I probably should re-evaluate what I think about this team)
2-3 2nd most likely, a tad disappointing, and a small problem (no re-evaluation needed)
3-2 Most Likely (no re-evaluation needed)
4-1 Unlikely but pretty big (I probably should re-evaluate what I think about this team)
5-0 Majorly big (I absolutely need to re-evaluate what I think about this team)
The 9ers did go 3-2 in this stretch, but If I had been picking individual games I'd have picked the 9ers to beat the Panthers but lose to the Hawks. It's just too unpredictable (e.g. they lost to the Panthers by 1 point and beat the Hawks by 2 points). Oddly they were closer to 4-1 than 2-3 (two losses by a FG or less, one win by a FG or less; these are coin flip games), but 3-2 was about right.
For these next two games (Falcons, @ Cards) I'd say 2-0 is likely, 1-1 a little less so but not a problem/no re-evaluation needed, and 0-2 a problem and in need of re-evaluation.
