Kaep Agent's take: 49ers face challenges in any new deal

Laloosh · Feb 28, 2014

Kaepernick will likely seek more than $18 million a year and in excess of $50 million in guarantees on a long-term extension despite a need to continue developing as a pocket passer and having an inconsistent 2013 regular season. The latest salary benchmark in the quarterback market is the seven-year, $126.7 million contract Jay Cutler received from the Chicago Bears within days of the regular season ending. Some $54 million of Cutler's contract is guaranteed and $54 million is in the first three years. The six-year, $108 million contract extension (including $55 million in guarantees) that Tony Romo signed with the Dallas Cowboys last year could also be an important data point in negotiations.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-foo ... kaepernick

mikeak · Feb 28, 2014

That is what he wants. Then you may as well let him play out his final year without a new contract and then follow that with 1-2 franchise deals in a row (after that it gets expensive).

Now Kaep - would you consider something less to ensure you get money in the long run or are you willing to roll the dice 3 years in a row?.....

Marvin49 · Feb 28, 2014

mikeak":10l1rjy6 said:
That is what he wants. Then you may as well let him play out his final year without a new contract and then follow that with 1-2 franchise deals in a row (after that it gets expensive).

Now Kaep - would you consider something less to ensure you get money in the long run or are you willing to roll the dice 3 years in a row?.....

I've always kinda thought they would make him play out his rookie deal and then franchise him next year.

Now that the cap is larger than expected and expected to jump about 10 mil per year...

...Niners may try to secure a cheaper deal now than he may command later. I gotta think though that it will be backloaded.

Popeyejones · Feb 28, 2014

Edit: ^^^ Agreed w/ your first thought Marvin. I don't think the cap comes into play too much for Kaep, though. The offers this summer are lowballed and purely symbolic, IMO (that extra wiggle room on the cap is changing their thinking about Whitner, not Kaep, IMO).

What I had originally posted:

Not really any reporting in there, but a very good piece IMO, and I think the logic is very sound. My guess is the 9ers are currently trying to do the same thing with him that they do with everyone*, but that it probably won't work.** As the cat is already well out of the bag on Kaepernick, my guess is his agent will turn this down, and they'll let him play out the contract and then franchise him after next season. This will allow them to extend their window of the team mostly-as-is for one more year, and to have a bit more time to see if he continues progressing or not.*** If not they then have to later decide if they want to roll the dice on QB again or over-pay for above-average play a la the Bears.

Oddly, this game will probably be a bit harder to play for the Hawks b/c Wilson has already won a Super Bowl, meaning for the 9ers and Hawks the chickens of paying a starting QB what he’s worth might end up coming home to roost in the same year despite Wilson getting drafted a year after Kaep.

---
*Get a year early on the extension w/ a big discount, as they just did again with Kilgore.
**The strategy works because they lock up players up before the league really takes notice of their ability (e.g. Bowman, Boone, Staley, Brock, Anthony Davis, Ian Williams, and to a lesser extent Vernon Davis all worked this way), which just isn't possible w/ a starting QB, for which there isn't a mess of information asymmetry between the team and other potential suitors. From a cap perspective in an ideal world Alex Smith would have never gotten injured, and would have played out last year and this year while they signed Kaep to a very under-market five year extension b/c he was hidden behind Alex and nobody outside of the org had seen him yet (which is exactly what they did with Boone and Williams, and are now doing with Kilgore). Oh well.
***The assumption that players ALWAYS progress being a tragically flawed one.

Largent80 · Feb 28, 2014

I hope they give him an 80 year contract. :twisted:

Subzero717 · Feb 28, 2014

Im not a Kap fan but he should easily make equal or more than Stafford, Romo, Eli or Ryan.

Brahn · Feb 28, 2014

Popeyejones":2wefd0bp said:
Edit: ^^^ Agreed w/ your first thought Marvin. I don't think the cap comes into play too much for Kaep, though. The offers this summer are lowballed and purely symbolic, IMO (that extra wiggle room on the cap is changing their thinking about Whitner, not Kaep, IMO).

What I had originally posted:

Not really any reporting in there, but a very good piece IMO, and I think the logic is very sound. My guess is the 9ers are currently trying to do the same thing with him that they do with everyone*, but that it probably won't work.** As the cat is already well out of the bag on Kaepernick, my guess is his agent will turn this down, and they'll let him play out the contract and then franchise him after next season. This will allow them to extend their window of the team mostly-as-is for one more year, and to have a bit more time to see if he continues progressing or not.*** If not they then have to later decide if they want to roll the dice on QB again or over-pay for above-average play a la the Bears.

Oddly, this game will probably be a bit harder to play for the Hawks b/c Wilson has already won a Super Bowl, meaning for the 9ers and Hawks the chickens of paying a starting QB what he’s worth might end up coming home to roost in the same year despite Wilson getting drafted a year after Kaep.

---
*Get a year early on the extension w/ a big discount, as they just did again with Kilgore.
**The strategy works because they lock up players up before the league really takes notice of their ability (e.g. Bowman, Boone, Staley, Brock, Anthony Davis, Ian Williams, and to a lesser extent Vernon Davis all worked this way), which just isn't possible w/ a starting QB, for which there isn't a mess of information asymmetry between the team and other potential suitors. From a cap perspective in an ideal world Alex Smith would have never gotten injured, and would have played out last year and this year while they signed Kaep to a very under-market five year extension b/c he was hidden behind Alex and nobody outside of the org had seen him yet (which is exactly what they did with Boone and Williams, and are now doing with Kilgore). Oh well.
***The assumption that players ALWAYS progress being a tragically flawed one.

Wouldn't the Hawks be in a better situation considering they could just franchise Wilson 2 times like you theorized the Niners doing? Neither team will do that but if anything the Hawks could push the QB salary 1 year farther then the Niners could. The Niners are already currently paying Kaep more then the Hawks pay Wilson based on draft position.

mikeak · Feb 28, 2014

Popeyejones":bo59b4sf said:
Oddly, this game will probably be a bit harder to play for the Hawks b/c Wilson has already won a Super Bowl, meaning for the 9ers and Hawks the chickens of paying a starting QB what he’s worth might end up coming home to roost in the same year despite Wilson getting drafted a year after Kaep.

---
.

What I am going to write below 100% speculative and I understand that I may simply be duped by personalities shown on TV and my Seahawks glasses - got it

I see the 49ers and Kaep handling quite a bit as adversaries. Partially because of the "lack" of superbowl win where 49ers don't want to sell everything and Kaep feeling he shown he is capable of taking them there. The other part is a feeling that this is how these two parties will do business.

In regards to the Seahawks and RW I think it will be quietly done. There are other examples in the world of sports such as Durant's latest resigning where the team and the player simply works it out. I truly believe the player tells the agent what to do more in those situations than the reverse situation. RW's agent has been with him for a long time and been a part of giving back baseball money (large chunk for a college kid) and understands what RW wants vs what other clients may want / need.

I firmly believe the Seahawks will pay RW for the Superbowl win. They will value him at a reasonable rate such as $16-$20 million / year.

RW will not maximize the deal. I don't know if he takes a discount but I truly don't believe he will maximize it.

In other words Seahawks says $16-$20, RW says $16-$20 and they agree based on the big picture and we "simply" hear it announced next year that he has been re-signed to a new deal.

I don't see any chance whatsoever that the team franchises RW. They are not going to make either him or Sherman play out the last year of the contract. It will be bad business as it will create a demand from the player for every dollar they can get and make it a negative relationship.

rlkats · Feb 28, 2014

Brahn":2oquawrh said:
Popeyejones":2oquawrh said:

Edit: ^^^ Agreed w/ your first thought Marvin. I don't think the cap comes into play too much for Kaep, though. The offers this summer are lowballed and purely symbolic, IMO (that extra wiggle room on the cap is changing their thinking about Whitner, not Kaep, IMO).

What I had originally posted:

Not really any reporting in there, but a very good piece IMO, and I think the logic is very sound. My guess is the 9ers are currently trying to do the same thing with him that they do with everyone*, but that it probably won't work.** As the cat is already well out of the bag on Kaepernick, my guess is his agent will turn this down, and they'll let him play out the contract and then franchise him after next season. This will allow them to extend their window of the team mostly-as-is for one more year, and to have a bit more time to see if he continues progressing or not.*** If not they then have to later decide if they want to roll the dice on QB again or over-pay for above-average play a la the Bears.

Oddly, this game will probably be a bit harder to play for the Hawks b/c Wilson has already won a Super Bowl, meaning for the 9ers and Hawks the chickens of paying a starting QB what he’s worth might end up coming home to roost in the same year despite Wilson getting drafted a year after Kaep.

Question if Wilson was franchised tagged couldn't another team scoop him up
---
*Get a year early on the extension w/ a big discount, as they just did again with Kilgore.
**The strategy works because they lock up players up before the league really takes notice of their ability (e.g. Bowman, Boone, Staley, Brock, Anthony Davis, Ian Williams, and to a lesser extent Vernon Davis all worked this way), which just isn't possible w/ a starting QB, for which there isn't a mess of information asymmetry between the team and other potential suitors. From a cap perspective in an ideal world Alex Smith would have never gotten injured, and would have played out last year and this year while they signed Kaep to a very under-market five year extension b/c he was hidden behind Alex and nobody outside of the org had seen him yet (which is exactly what they did with Boone and Williams, and are now doing with Kilgore). Oh well.
***The assumption that players ALWAYS progress being a tragically flawed one.

Click to expand...

Wouldn't the Hawks be in a better situation considering they could just franchise Wilson 2 times like you theorized the Niners doing? Neither team will do that but if anything the Hawks could push the QB salary 1 year farther then the Niners could. The Niners are already currently paying Kaep more then the Hawks pay Wilson based on draft position.

Jac · Feb 28, 2014

I've read on boards the premise that the 49ers franchise Kaepernick to buy time on the decision. I don't see how that's a possibility. He has way too much pride--and would have a massive amount of leverage--preventing that. Any kind of holdout by a starting QB would be massively distracting. Best/worst alternative scenario is the bridge contract idea mentioned in that link.

Marvin49 · Feb 28, 2014

Jac":3kp03ixx said:
I've read on boards the premise that the 49ers franchise Kaepernick to buy time on the decision. I don't see how that's a possibility. He has way too much pride--and would have a massive amount of leverage--preventing that. Any kind of holdout by a starting QB would be massively distracting. Best/worst alternative scenario is the bridge contract idea mentioned in that link.

?

Franchise tag would pay him HUGE and tagging him a second time would result in a 20% raise from the first tag. The Franchise # for QBs THIS year is 16.912M.

I can't imagine him holding out over the tag.

Marvin49 · Feb 28, 2014

Brahn":1ltolm0s said:
Popeyejones":1ltolm0s said:

Edit: ^^^ Agreed w/ your first thought Marvin. I don't think the cap comes into play too much for Kaep, though. The offers this summer are lowballed and purely symbolic, IMO (that extra wiggle room on the cap is changing their thinking about Whitner, not Kaep, IMO).

What I had originally posted:

Not really any reporting in there, but a very good piece IMO, and I think the logic is very sound. My guess is the 9ers are currently trying to do the same thing with him that they do with everyone*, but that it probably won't work.** As the cat is already well out of the bag on Kaepernick, my guess is his agent will turn this down, and they'll let him play out the contract and then franchise him after next season. This will allow them to extend their window of the team mostly-as-is for one more year, and to have a bit more time to see if he continues progressing or not.*** If not they then have to later decide if they want to roll the dice on QB again or over-pay for above-average play a la the Bears.

Oddly, this game will probably be a bit harder to play for the Hawks b/c Wilson has already won a Super Bowl, meaning for the 9ers and Hawks the chickens of paying a starting QB what he’s worth might end up coming home to roost in the same year despite Wilson getting drafted a year after Kaep.

---
*Get a year early on the extension w/ a big discount, as they just did again with Kilgore.
**The strategy works because they lock up players up before the league really takes notice of their ability (e.g. Bowman, Boone, Staley, Brock, Anthony Davis, Ian Williams, and to a lesser extent Vernon Davis all worked this way), which just isn't possible w/ a starting QB, for which there isn't a mess of information asymmetry between the team and other potential suitors. From a cap perspective in an ideal world Alex Smith would have never gotten injured, and would have played out last year and this year while they signed Kaep to a very under-market five year extension b/c he was hidden behind Alex and nobody outside of the org had seen him yet (which is exactly what they did with Boone and Williams, and are now doing with Kilgore). Oh well.
***The assumption that players ALWAYS progress being a tragically flawed one.

Click to expand...

Wouldn't the Hawks be in a better situation considering they could just franchise Wilson 2 times like you theorized the Niners doing? Neither team will do that but if anything the Hawks could push the QB salary 1 year farther then the Niners could. The Niners are already currently paying Kaep more then the Hawks pay Wilson based on draft position.

Assuming that the Seahawks let him play out his rookie deal and then franchise him, then yes.

I think the point he was making is that Wilson already has a ring. In negotiations with Kap they can say you don't have a ring.

He's saying barring Kap winning one this year, Wilson will likely be a more expensive signing even though they don't HAVE to sign him next year.

rlkats · Feb 28, 2014

Question. If either Wilson or Kap tagged (which I do not see happening) could some other team scoop them up? If so I think that is way to much risk.

Marvin49 · Feb 28, 2014

rlkats":3gw7n1sd said:
Question. If either Wilson or Kap tagged (which I do not see happening) could some other team scoop them up? If so I think that is way to much risk.

Was wondering the exact rules myself...from Wikipedia...

An "exclusive" franchise player must be offered a one-year contract for an amount no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player's position as of a date in April of the current year in which the tag will apply, or 120 percent of the player's previous year's salary, whichever is greater. Exclusive franchise players cannot negotiate with other teams. The player's team has all the negotiating rights to the exclusive player.

A "non-exclusive" franchise player must be offered a one-year contract for an amount no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player's position for the previous year, or 120 percent of the player's previous year's salary, whichever is greater. A non-exclusive franchise player may negotiate with other NFL teams, but if he signs an offer sheet from another team, the original team has a right to match the terms of that offer, or if it does not match the offer and thus loses the player, is entitled to receive two first-round draft picks as compensation

Jac · Feb 28, 2014

Marvin49":23aycfsn said:
Jac":23aycfsn said:

I've read on boards the premise that the 49ers franchise Kaepernick to buy time on the decision. I don't see how that's a possibility. He has way too much pride--and would have a massive amount of leverage--preventing that. Any kind of holdout by a starting QB would be massively distracting. Best/worst alternative scenario is the bridge contract idea mentioned in that link.

Click to expand...

?

Franchise tag would pay him HUGE and tagging his a second time would result in a 20% raise from teh first tag.

I can't imagine him holding out over the tag.

We'll see then. I have no direct skin in that game. Unless he implodes next year, he would be deserving (or would argue that he deserves) that same bridge contract that Stafford took (three-year, $53 million extension with $41.5 million guaranteed).

MizzouHawkGal · Feb 28, 2014

No the franchise tag locks them up a year at a time.

Marvin49 · Feb 28, 2014

MizzouHawkGal":2vbs053c said:
No the franchise tag locks them up a year at a time.

Depends on the tag...Exclusive or non-exculsive.

Not sure why you would use the Non exclusive though...

Popeyejones · Feb 28, 2014

Brahn":1rpm3cux said:
Wouldn't the Hawks be in a better situation considering they could just franchise Wilson 2 times like you theorized the Niners doing? Neither team will do that but if anything the Hawks could push the QB salary 1 year farther then the Niners could. The Niners are already currently paying Kaep more then the Hawks pay Wilson based on draft position.

Sorry, I'm realizing my post was unclear. Two points of clarification:

1) Conventional wisdom is that the Hawks will have to deal with paying Wilson what he deserves a year after the 9ers have to deal with paying Kaep what he deserves* because Wilson was drafted a year after. My post was a thought experiment about if they might have to deal with it in the same year, rather than it being staggered. Not suggesting this IS what will happen, just thinking through the thought experiment of if there is a scenario in which it could happen.

2) I'm talking about letting either guy play out his contract and then franchising him for one year, not franchising either of them for two years.

This post could get really long from this point forward, or be summed up in three sentences. I'm going with the three sentence version.

Sentence 1 & 2: Politically it's considerably harder to use the franchise tag for players that there aren't questions about, and for players that are unarguably worth a long term contract. It's what the Saints and Packers had to deal with for Brees and Rodgers, and what the Saints are now dealing with for Graham.

Sentence 2 : Because there are less questions about Wilson's game and because he won the Super Bowl, it will be politically harder for the Hawks to franchise Wilson than for the 9ers to franchise Kaepernick, meaning a scenario is possible in which both teams will have to deal with paying their quarterbacks at around the same time (basically sometime between after the Super Bowl and Week 8 of the year after the next).

Hope that makes more sense.

*Not debating what the differential, if any, in what they'll get is, although as of right now I think we have to assume Wilson will get more due to the reaons in "sentence 2."

Popeyejones · Feb 28, 2014

Mikeak --

Yeah, a Seahawks colored glasses version of the same scenario.

(and just messing around, I think what you're saying is possible too, and gets us to the same place).

mikeak · Feb 28, 2014

Popeyejones":10mxaw5c said:
Mikeak --

Yeah, a Seahawks colored glasses version of the same scenario.

(and just messing around, I think what you're saying is possible too, and gets us to the same place).

Yes my final point is exactly your point which I understand now when it has been elaborated on in two sentences

Politically both with the fans and the player it would be dumb to franchise RW and most likely even making him play out a contract when he has been playing for peanuts compared to other players and won 1-2 superbowls at that time.....

Kaep Agent's take: 49ers face challenges in any new deal

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