2017 Seattle Mariners regular season thread

Bobblehead":23hhfmbq said:

I remember the same crap was said of Bob Melvin when he started here.. Didn't he win Manager of the year a couple of years later?

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West TX Hawk":3u7k3j86 said:

Motter sent down to Tacoma. The club signed 2b Danny Espinosa to take his spot. Espinosa had 24 hr last year with Washington but was hitting .162 with the Angels before his release.
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/ml ... 87533.html

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Threedee":2ly5xec0 said:

Bobblehead":2ly5xec0 said:

I remember the same crap was said of Bob Melvin when he started here.. Didn't he win Manager of the year a couple of years later?

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In hindsight, Melvin was easily the best we've had since Lou left. Hard to say for sure, though, because Bavasi was progressively gutting the team each season, and then Z came along and caused a systemic failure in player development.

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getnasty":3kdu72ut said:

M's rumored to be in the running for Sonny Grey according to espn. Paxton and Grey would be a nice 1-2 punch, highly doubt it happens but one can dream.

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sutz":1c47xrbt said:

Pax was dealing tonight. 7 scoreless, 10 k's no BB's :2thumbs:

Even Segura got a hit, too. Gamel with a triple and 2 runs scored. Seags homered.

Good win for the M's. Would love to see them get on a roll.

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Bobblehead":3hrczwx8 said:

getnasty":3hrczwx8 said:

M's rumored to be in the running for Sonny Grey according to espn. Paxton and Grey would be a nice 1-2 punch, highly doubt it happens but one can dream.

Click to expand...

Do we want to get rid of Kyle Lewis?

Although, I want us to make the playoffs, I don't necessarily want just to make the playoffs, a playoff without championship is of little comfort and I don't want to lose our scarce pieces just for the sake of making the playoff.

The Adam Jones trade still infuriates me.

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Bobblehead":2ebr18o7 said:

getnasty":2ebr18o7 said:

M's rumored to be in the running for Sonny Grey according to espn. Paxton and Grey would be a nice 1-2 punch, highly doubt it happens but one can dream.

Click to expand...

Do we want to get rid of Kyle Lewis?

Although, I want us to make the playoffs, I don't necessarily want just to make the playoffs, a playoff without championship is of little comfort and I don't want to lose our scarce pieces just for the sake of making the playoff.

The Adam Jones trade still infuriates me.

Click to expand...

West TX Hawk":1v3hucwn said:

sutz":1v3hucwn said:

Pax was dealing tonight. 7 scoreless, 10 k's no BB's :2thumbs:

Even Segura got a hit, too. Gamel with a triple and 2 runs scored. Seags homered.

Good win for the M's. Would love to see them get on a roll.

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No doubt. Great win tonight makes things hopeful but it's the next few that will be telling. We really need to win this series.

Pax is pitching at such a high level it's really a joy to watch. Hit 99 in the 1st inning and the 3rd time through the order he broke off his knickle curve which has really developed into a plus pitch. And yep, Segura broke out of his mini slump too.

Phelps looked outstanding again-he's got such a loose arm swing and great stuff. Love that trade. Still questioning the Gonzales one though but we'll see. Let's see if Felix can keep it going tomorrow.

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sutz":3b6c8nip said:

West TX Hawk":3b6c8nip said:

sutz":3b6c8nip said:

Pax was dealing tonight. 7 scoreless, 10 k's no BB's :2thumbs:

Even Segura got a hit, too. Gamel with a triple and 2 runs scored. Seags homered.

Good win for the M's. Would love to see them get on a roll.

Click to expand...

No doubt. Great win tonight makes things hopeful but it's the next few that will be telling. We really need to win this series.

Pax is pitching at such a high level it's really a joy to watch. Hit 99 in the 1st inning and the 3rd time through the order he broke off his knickle curve which has really developed into a plus pitch. And yep, Segura broke out of his mini slump too.

Phelps looked outstanding again-he's got such a loose arm swing and great stuff. Love that trade. Still questioning the Gonzales one though but we'll see. Let's see if Felix can keep it going tomorrow.

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Yeah, Phelps has been solid in a couple of outings. I wonder if he has starter potential?

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Thepeelsessions":3nf10hhg said:

Bobblehead":3nf10hhg said:

getnasty":3nf10hhg said:

M's rumored to be in the running for Sonny Grey according to espn. Paxton and Grey would be a nice 1-2 punch, highly doubt it happens but one can dream.

Click to expand...

Do we want to get rid of Kyle Lewis?

Although, I want us to make the playoffs, I don't necessarily want just to make the playoffs, a playoff without championship is of little comfort and I don't want to lose our scarce pieces just for the sake of making the playoff.

The Adam Jones trade still infuriates me.

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Heck no you don't get rid of Lewis! Especially not to a division rival. I'm tired of all the years of acquiring starting pitching and getting crap results. The O'neill for Gonzales swap was a bad trade. DiPoto could've been able to package O'Neill to Oakland for Gray. There's absolutely no way you can justify trading Lewis to Oakland.

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Bobblehead":1min8kx2 said:

getnasty":1min8kx2 said:

M's rumored to be in the running for Sonny Grey according to espn. Paxton and Grey would be a nice 1-2 punch, highly doubt it happens but one can dream.

Click to expand...

Do we want to get rid of Kyle Lewis?

Although, I want us to make the playoffs, I don't necessarily want just to make the playoffs, a playoff without championship is of little comfort and I don't want to lose our scarce pieces just for the sake of making the playoff.

The Adam Jones trade still infuriates me.

Click to expand...

Total Picks = 30,139
% Made it to Majors = 3,776 out of 30,139 Picks (12.53%)
% Decently Productive Career = 1,129 out of 30,139 Picks (3.75%)
% Became Major League Stars = 357 out of 30,139 Picks (1.18%)

Thomas Malthus was a 19th Century philosopher who contended that limited resources would cause competition for them as the population continued to grow. His ideas, in turn, significantly influenced Charles Darwin, who (of course) contended that only the strongest individuals of a species would end up with those needed resources and be able to survive. Well Malthus and Darwin certainly didn't know anything about baseball … but from the statistics noted above I think you can easily see why a Darwinian fight for survival exists within the National Pastime today.

Out of all the myriad of youngsters who are drafted every year … roughly only 13% of them will ever have even 1 Major League At-Bat … or stare down even 1 Major League Hitter in their career from the mound. A whopping 87% of those guys will never even get the chance to become Moonlight Graham.

Less than 4% of all draft picks will ever go on to have what we might term a "decent" career … and less than 1.25% of all draft picks will truly become Major League Stars.

Click to expand...

1977 – Dave Henderson
1979 – Al Chambers
1980 – Darnell Coles
1981 – Mike Moore
1982 – Spike Owen
1983 – Darrel Akerfelds
1983 – Terry Bell
1984 – Billy Swift
1985 – Mike Campbell
1985 – Bill McGuire
1986 – Patrick Lennon
1987 – Ken Griffey, Jr.
1988 – Tino Martinez
1989 – Roger Salkeld
1990 – Marc Newfield
1991 – Shawn Estes
1992 – Ron Villone
1993 – Alex Rodriguez
1994 – Jason Varitek
1995 – Jose Cruz, Jr.
1996 – Gil Meche
1998 – Matt Thornton
2002 – John Mayberry, Jr. (failed to sign)
2003 – Adam Jones
2005 – Jeff Clement
2006 – Brandon Morrow

Of those 33 First Round Draft Choices, 26 ended up making it to the Major Leagues and playing in some capacity (even if it was for 1 inning). John Mayberry, Jr. didn’t sign his contract in 2002 and has become an average to below average player. The Mariners also failed to sign Scott Burrell in 1989 (though he never played the majors).

Of the 33 picks that Mariners made from 1977 to 2006 … only 15 had (what I would call) any appreciable sense of a Major League Career. And of those 15 picks … it can be argued that only 6 of them (Dave Henderson, Billy Swift, Ken Griffey, Jr., Tino Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, and Jason Varitek) ever truly became stars. So given all that, let’s look at a breakdown of the numbers …

Mariners 1st Round Draft Choices (1977-2006) – 33 Total Picks

% of picks that made it to the Major Leagues … 26 of 33 (78.78%)
% of picks that had a decently productive Major League Career … 15 of 33 (45.45%)
% of picks that actually became Major League Stars … 6 of 33 (18.18%)

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Hawkscanner":1b5xc6p6 said:

Bobblehead":1b5xc6p6 said:

getnasty":1b5xc6p6 said:

M's rumored to be in the running for Sonny Grey according to espn. Paxton and Grey would be a nice 1-2 punch, highly doubt it happens but one can dream.

Click to expand...

Do we want to get rid of Kyle Lewis?

Although, I want us to make the playoffs, I don't necessarily want just to make the playoffs, a playoff without championship is of little comfort and I don't want to lose our scarce pieces just for the sake of making the playoff.

The Adam Jones trade still infuriates me.

Click to expand...

I understand what you're saying ... and there's a part of me that agrees. The Adam Jones trade is one that still sticks in my craw to this day (as does the Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb. Oof!!). That said, if the M's can get Sonny Gray (a good SP that would cost effective and under club control for the next couple of years at least), then I tentatively say -- you absolutely trade Kyle Lewis. And I say that with a fairly good deal of certainty.

Why do I say that? Earlier (back on Pg. 17), I referenced a meta study that I conducted several years ago on MLB Draft Picks. I was curious to know exactly what the success and failure rate was for draft picks. So, I began a process of taking a look at every single draft pick for every single MLB team over a 20 year span. Months of work went into researching that question and then writing that piece. In the end, I had my answer. Here again is my conclusion to that piece ...

Total Picks = 30,139
% Made it to Majors = 3,776 out of 30,139 Picks (12.53%)
% Decently Productive Career = 1,129 out of 30,139 Picks (3.75%)
% Became Major League Stars = 357 out of 30,139 Picks (1.18%)

Thomas Malthus was a 19th Century philosopher who contended that limited resources would cause competition for them as the population continued to grow. His ideas, in turn, significantly influenced Charles Darwin, who (of course) contended that only the strongest individuals of a species would end up with those needed resources and be able to survive. Well Malthus and Darwin certainly didn't know anything about baseball … but from the statistics noted above I think you can easily see why a Darwinian fight for survival exists within the National Pastime today.

Out of all the myriad of youngsters who are drafted every year … roughly only 13% of them will ever have even 1 Major League At-Bat … or stare down even 1 Major League Hitter in their career from the mound. A whopping 87% of those guys will never even get the chance to become Moonlight Graham.

Less than 4% of all draft picks will ever go on to have what we might term a "decent" career … and less than 1.25% of all draft picks will truly become Major League Stars.

Click to expand...

Source:
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum...ers-and-the-dark-side-of-moneyball-episode-i/

Let's narrow the focus even further though and ask the question, "How many 1st Round Draft Choices truly pan out? Let me answer that question by narrowing the focus and looking just at the Mariners 1st round draft picks throughout the years. As part of that study, I took a look at M's draft choices from 1977 to 2006 ...

1977 – Dave Henderson
1979 – Al Chambers
1980 – Darnell Coles
1981 – Mike Moore
1982 – Spike Owen
1983 – Darrel Akerfelds
1983 – Terry Bell
1984 – Billy Swift
1985 – Mike Campbell
1985 – Bill McGuire
1986 – Patrick Lennon
1987 – Ken Griffey, Jr.
1988 – Tino Martinez
1989 – Roger Salkeld
1990 – Marc Newfield
1991 – Shawn Estes
1992 – Ron Villone
1993 – Alex Rodriguez
1994 – Jason Varitek
1995 – Jose Cruz, Jr.
1996 – Gil Meche
1998 – Matt Thornton
2002 – John Mayberry, Jr. (failed to sign)
2003 – Adam Jones
2005 – Jeff Clement
2006 – Brandon Morrow

Of those 33 First Round Draft Choices, 26 ended up making it to the Major Leagues and playing in some capacity (even if it was for 1 inning). John Mayberry, Jr. didn’t sign his contract in 2002 and has become an average to below average player. The Mariners also failed to sign Scott Burrell in 1989 (though he never played the majors).

Of the 33 picks that Mariners made from 1977 to 2006 … only 15 had (what I would call) any appreciable sense of a Major League Career. And of those 15 picks … it can be argued that only 6 of them (Dave Henderson, Billy Swift, Ken Griffey, Jr., Tino Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, and Jason Varitek) ever truly became stars. So given all that, let’s look at a breakdown of the numbers …

Mariners 1st Round Draft Choices (1977-2006) – 33 Total Picks

% of picks that made it to the Major Leagues … 26 of 33 (78.78%)
% of picks that had a decently productive Major League Career … 15 of 33 (45.45%)
% of picks that actually became Major League Stars … 6 of 33 (18.18%)

Click to expand...

So, history says that the vast majority of the prospects who fans so highly covet ... either never work out or never work out quite the way you envision they will. As far as prospects go, I've found that in the vast majority of cases that a bird in the hand is usually better than 2 (or more) in the bush.

Click to expand...

getnasty":3acydtdr said:

Hawkscanner":3acydtdr said:

Bobblehead":3acydtdr said:

getnasty":3acydtdr said:

M's rumored to be in the running for Sonny Grey according to espn. Paxton and Grey would be a nice 1-2 punch, highly doubt it happens but one can dream.

Click to expand...

Do we want to get rid of Kyle Lewis?

Although, I want us to make the playoffs, I don't necessarily want just to make the playoffs, a playoff without championship is of little comfort and I don't want to lose our scarce pieces just for the sake of making the playoff.

The Adam Jones trade still infuriates me.

Click to expand...

I understand what you're saying ... and there's a part of me that agrees. The Adam Jones trade is one that still sticks in my craw to this day (as does the Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb. Oof!!). That said, if the M's can get Sonny Gray (a good SP that would cost effective and under club control for the next couple of years at least), then I tentatively say -- you absolutely trade Kyle Lewis. And I say that with a fairly good deal of certainty.

Why do I say that? Earlier (back on Pg. 17), I referenced a meta study that I conducted several years ago on MLB Draft Picks. I was curious to know exactly what the success and failure rate was for draft picks. So, I began a process of taking a look at every single draft pick for every single MLB team over a 20 year span. Months of work went into researching that question and then writing that piece. In the end, I had my answer. Here again is my conclusion to that piece ...

Total Picks = 30,139
% Made it to Majors = 3,776 out of 30,139 Picks (12.53%)
% Decently Productive Career = 1,129 out of 30,139 Picks (3.75%)
% Became Major League Stars = 357 out of 30,139 Picks (1.18%)

Thomas Malthus was a 19th Century philosopher who contended that limited resources would cause competition for them as the population continued to grow. His ideas, in turn, significantly influenced Charles Darwin, who (of course) contended that only the strongest individuals of a species would end up with those needed resources and be able to survive. Well Malthus and Darwin certainly didn't know anything about baseball … but from the statistics noted above I think you can easily see why a Darwinian fight for survival exists within the National Pastime today.

Out of all the myriad of youngsters who are drafted every year … roughly only 13% of them will ever have even 1 Major League At-Bat … or stare down even 1 Major League Hitter in their career from the mound. A whopping 87% of those guys will never even get the chance to become Moonlight Graham.

Less than 4% of all draft picks will ever go on to have what we might term a "decent" career … and less than 1.25% of all draft picks will truly become Major League Stars.

Click to expand...

Source:
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum...ers-and-the-dark-side-of-moneyball-episode-i/

Let's narrow the focus even further though and ask the question, "How many 1st Round Draft Choices truly pan out? Let me answer that question by narrowing the focus and looking just at the Mariners 1st round draft picks throughout the years. As part of that study, I took a look at M's draft choices from 1977 to 2006 ...

1977 – Dave Henderson
1979 – Al Chambers
1980 – Darnell Coles
1981 – Mike Moore
1982 – Spike Owen
1983 – Darrel Akerfelds
1983 – Terry Bell
1984 – Billy Swift
1985 – Mike Campbell
1985 – Bill McGuire
1986 – Patrick Lennon
1987 – Ken Griffey, Jr.
1988 – Tino Martinez
1989 – Roger Salkeld
1990 – Marc Newfield
1991 – Shawn Estes
1992 – Ron Villone
1993 – Alex Rodriguez
1994 – Jason Varitek
1995 – Jose Cruz, Jr.
1996 – Gil Meche
1998 – Matt Thornton
2002 – John Mayberry, Jr. (failed to sign)
2003 – Adam Jones
2005 – Jeff Clement
2006 – Brandon Morrow

Of those 33 First Round Draft Choices, 26 ended up making it to the Major Leagues and playing in some capacity (even if it was for 1 inning). John Mayberry, Jr. didn’t sign his contract in 2002 and has become an average to below average player. The Mariners also failed to sign Scott Burrell in 1989 (though he never played the majors).

Of the 33 picks that Mariners made from 1977 to 2006 … only 15 had (what I would call) any appreciable sense of a Major League Career. And of those 15 picks … it can be argued that only 6 of them (Dave Henderson, Billy Swift, Ken Griffey, Jr., Tino Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, and Jason Varitek) ever truly became stars. So given all that, let’s look at a breakdown of the numbers …

Mariners 1st Round Draft Choices (1977-2006) – 33 Total Picks

% of picks that made it to the Major Leagues … 26 of 33 (78.78%)
% of picks that had a decently productive Major League Career … 15 of 33 (45.45%)
% of picks that actually became Major League Stars … 6 of 33 (18.18%)

Click to expand...

So, history says that the vast majority of the prospects who fans so highly covet ... either never work out or never work out quite the way you envision they will. As far as prospects go, I've found that in the vast majority of cases that a bird in the hand is usually better than 2 (or more) in the bush.

Click to expand...

Good stuff! Ok I'm back in on Sonny Gray

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Bobblehead":1vt626fl said:

getnasty":1vt626fl said:

Hawkscanner":1vt626fl said:

Bobblehead":1vt626fl said:

Do we want to get rid of Kyle Lewis?

Although, I want us to make the playoffs, I don't necessarily want just to make the playoffs, a playoff without championship is of little comfort and I don't want to lose our scarce pieces just for the sake of making the playoff.

The Adam Jones trade still infuriates me.

Click to expand...

I understand what you're saying ... and there's a part of me that agrees. The Adam Jones trade is one that still sticks in my craw to this day (as does the Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb. Oof!!). That said, if the M's can get Sonny Gray (a good SP that would cost effective and under club control for the next couple of years at least), then I tentatively say -- you absolutely trade Kyle Lewis. And I say that with a fairly good deal of certainty.

Why do I say that? Earlier (back on Pg. 17), I referenced a meta study that I conducted several years ago on MLB Draft Picks. I was curious to know exactly what the success and failure rate was for draft picks. So, I began a process of taking a look at every single draft pick for every single MLB team over a 20 year span. Months of work went into researching that question and then writing that piece. In the end, I had my answer. Here again is my conclusion to that piece ...

Total Picks = 30,139
% Made it to Majors = 3,776 out of 30,139 Picks (12.53%)
% Decently Productive Career = 1,129 out of 30,139 Picks (3.75%)
% Became Major League Stars = 357 out of 30,139 Picks (1.18%)

Thomas Malthus was a 19th Century philosopher who contended that limited resources would cause competition for them as the population continued to grow. His ideas, in turn, significantly influenced Charles Darwin, who (of course) contended that only the strongest individuals of a species would end up with those needed resources and be able to survive. Well Malthus and Darwin certainly didn't know anything about baseball … but from the statistics noted above I think you can easily see why a Darwinian fight for survival exists within the National Pastime today.

Out of all the myriad of youngsters who are drafted every year … roughly only 13% of them will ever have even 1 Major League At-Bat … or stare down even 1 Major League Hitter in their career from the mound. A whopping 87% of those guys will never even get the chance to become Moonlight Graham.

Less than 4% of all draft picks will ever go on to have what we might term a "decent" career … and less than 1.25% of all draft picks will truly become Major League Stars.

Click to expand...

Source:
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum...ers-and-the-dark-side-of-moneyball-episode-i/

Let's narrow the focus even further though and ask the question, "How many 1st Round Draft Choices truly pan out? Let me answer that question by narrowing the focus and looking just at the Mariners 1st round draft picks throughout the years. As part of that study, I took a look at M's draft choices from 1977 to 2006 ...

1977 – Dave Henderson
1979 – Al Chambers
1980 – Darnell Coles
1981 – Mike Moore
1982 – Spike Owen
1983 – Darrel Akerfelds
1983 – Terry Bell
1984 – Billy Swift
1985 – Mike Campbell
1985 – Bill McGuire
1986 – Patrick Lennon
1987 – Ken Griffey, Jr.
1988 – Tino Martinez
1989 – Roger Salkeld
1990 – Marc Newfield
1991 – Shawn Estes
1992 – Ron Villone
1993 – Alex Rodriguez
1994 – Jason Varitek
1995 – Jose Cruz, Jr.
1996 – Gil Meche
1998 – Matt Thornton
2002 – John Mayberry, Jr. (failed to sign)
2003 – Adam Jones
2005 – Jeff Clement
2006 – Brandon Morrow

Of those 33 First Round Draft Choices, 26 ended up making it to the Major Leagues and playing in some capacity (even if it was for 1 inning). John Mayberry, Jr. didn’t sign his contract in 2002 and has become an average to below average player. The Mariners also failed to sign Scott Burrell in 1989 (though he never played the majors).

Of the 33 picks that Mariners made from 1977 to 2006 … only 15 had (what I would call) any appreciable sense of a Major League Career. And of those 15 picks … it can be argued that only 6 of them (Dave Henderson, Billy Swift, Ken Griffey, Jr., Tino Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, and Jason Varitek) ever truly became stars. So given all that, let’s look at a breakdown of the numbers …

Mariners 1st Round Draft Choices (1977-2006) – 33 Total Picks

% of picks that made it to the Major Leagues … 26 of 33 (78.78%)
% of picks that had a decently productive Major League Career … 15 of 33 (45.45%)
% of picks that actually became Major League Stars … 6 of 33 (18.18%)

Click to expand...

So, history says that the vast majority of the prospects who fans so highly covet ... either never work out or never work out quite the way you envision they will. As far as prospects go, I've found that in the vast majority of cases that a bird in the hand is usually better than 2 (or more) in the bush.

Click to expand...

Good stuff! Ok I'm back in on Sonny Gray

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Well, listening to Clayton this morning.. he laughed at that Gray Rumor.. saying that no one would give up a player like Gray for a perpetually injured Lewis.

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