Key Difference (Seahawks vs 49ers)

kearly":1z2rjfv0 said:

themunn":1z2rjfv0 said:

Whilst it's true that Wilson held onto the ball longer than anyone else in the league last year, your statement is nonsense - seeing as Colin Kaepernick was 2nd behind him.
It's also a completely useless stat, Christian Ponder got the ball out faster than Aaron Rodgers last year, for example. It tells you absolutely nothing, apart from the fact that if Rodgers' line was better his time would be EVEN HIGHER.

Both QBs have that "time holding on to the ball" inflated because they can avoid pressure.
If PFF and all these other nonsense statmongers were to look at it properly, they would calculate the time held onto the ball before passing without a QB hurry, the time held onto the ball until the first QB hurry, the time held onto the ball AFTER the hurry on completed passes and the time held onto the ball when that hurry results in a sack.

Those are the 4 things you need to know. Take the famous run by Wilson against the 49ers last year where he made Brooks miss twice and outran Smith before eventually rushing. From the moment the ball is snapped until Wilson crossed the line of scrimmage was 13 seconds.
With 30 dropbacks, that 13 second run adds 0.433 seconds per dropback to the length of time he held onto the ball for the entire game. He did that all season long, extended plays with his legs and inflated the length of time he held onto the ball.
In the same game, in the redzone he threw 2 touchdowns to Doug Baldwin in under 2 seconds TOTAL after the snap.

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What I am curious about is the frequency, not the duration. How often does Wilson hold the ball 4 seconds or more compared to the rest of the league? Because watching him play, it feels like he'd lead the league in that number.

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I'd have to agree with you. Its a blessing and a curse. If you can keep him upright that long its almost impossible to keep recievers covered that long. They key of course is keeping him upright. He of course has alot to do with that as well.

Marvin49":djapkj5g said:

Everything isn't black and white.

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What if you watch on a black and white TV?

TwistedHusky":1fujnzwk said:

The big difference is that SF has better lines, on both sides of the ball. They also have a better LB group.

We have a much better secondary and we have a better (deeper) WR group.

But if you watched both the Seahawks and the 49ers objectively, it is clear the better team is the 49ers.

We have an advantage because we are home but that is it.

This is the first game, they are not firing on all cylinders and they look like the SB favorite by far. Wilson looked better than Kap by leagues last year, if you compare this game he is matching Rogers on every shot. That disadvantage is gone.

Also, Boldin is paying huge dividends for them. Boldin might actually be the difference between a win and loss in Seattle for them.

SF is playing a much higher quality opponent, but they are playing at home. Still, if this Seattle team had showed up in SF today they would have been run out of the stadium - at least a 17 point loss.

The Seahawks have their work cut out for them.

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Great post (unfortunately).... I was looking at both games subjectively and came away with the same feeling actually. Basically, we will need our A game Sunday if we hope to get the W, and that's taking into account that the game is at our place... Here's hoping...

Kaepernick was matching Rodgers blow for blow through the air which I was definitely not expecting. I wonder if that was the Niners gameplan, knowing that GB would basically sell out to stop the run, which they obviously did?

13thMan":3eyb7cwn said:

TwistedHusky":3eyb7cwn said:

The big difference is that SF has better lines, on both sides of the ball. They also have a better LB group.

We have a much better secondary and we have a better (deeper) WR group.

But if you watched both the Seahawks and the 49ers objectively, it is clear the better team is the 49ers.

We have an advantage because we are home but that is it.

This is the first game, they are not firing on all cylinders and they look like the SB favorite by far. Wilson looked better than Kap by leagues last year, if you compare this game he is matching Rogers on every shot. That disadvantage is gone.

Also, Boldin is paying huge dividends for them. Boldin might actually be the difference between a win and loss in Seattle for them.

SF is playing a much higher quality opponent, but they are playing at home. Still, if this Seattle team had showed up in SF today they would have been run out of the stadium - at least a 17 point loss.

The Seahawks have their work cut out for them.

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Great post (unfortunately).... I was looking at both games subjectively and came away with the same feeling actually. Basically, we will need our A game Sunday if we hope to get the W, and that's taking into account that the game is at our place... Here's hoping...

Kaepernick was matching Rodgers blow for blow through the air which I was definitely not expecting. I wonder if that was the Niners gameplan, knowing that GB would basically sell out to stop the run, which they obviously did?

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Yes.

I will say one thing tho...Kaep did what he did vs a team that was selling out to stop the run and exposing its safeties and not putting on much of a pass rush to stop Kaep from running.

Rodgers did what he did against largely a nickel defense most of the game.

What I take from that is that the 49ers run game is better than it showed in that game and that Kaep isn't Aaron Rodgers...yet.

Marvin49":2hc80jzx said:

13thMan":2hc80jzx said:

TwistedHusky":2hc80jzx said:

I will say one thing tho...Kaep did what he did vs a team that was selling out to stop the run and exposing its safeties and not putting on much of a pass rush to stop Kaep from running.

Rodgers did what he did against largely a nickel defense most of the game.

What I take from that is that the 49ers run game is better than it showed in that game and that Kaep isn't Aaron Rodgers...yet.

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This ^ . I watched that game entirely and was screaming at the TV, pleading for GB to play something, anything resembling an NFL level pass defense. They were absolutely horrid. I'd bet Alex Smith would have done at least as well as Kap if given the same circumstances. Yeah, some credit goes to Harbs for scheming a plan to get Boldin open, but sheesh, it was embarrassing... completely. Worst thing of it was that i knew we'd have to listen all week to the media going on and on about how great Kap is. Yesterday morning, Mike Greenberg claimed him to be every bit as good as Manning and Brady. The dude is good, but give me a break. He has flaws. As with A Smith, Harbaugh just does a masterful job of disguising them and putting the guy in the best possible position to succeed. We'll have to put a wrench in those plans Sunday night.
And I'd still give Russ the edge. He just doesnt have the security blanket that Kap does to support him (coaching / playcalling). As to the rest, i think that come the end of the season, the o-line comparison will be a push when it comes to run blocking, all we have to be is respectable in pass blocking. Our front WILL be as good as theirs come mid season, assuming we get all of our guys back. Our secondary is a huge advantage and mitigates to a degree the advantage they have at LB, simply because our CBs and safeties are so Gdamn huge and stout against the run. Running games - push.
Overall, when we get Clem, Irvin, Avril and Hill back, we're better on defense. Offensively, again, running game is a push and pass game, with Harvin.. maybe even without... big advantage - Hawks. The 12's just have to make up for the missing pieces Sunday and we'll be fine.

I honestly can't stand Aaron Rodgers, but he can drop his 300+ at will on anybody!!...... It was a little satisfying to see him in the post game presser after dropping a third straight to your team.... He is clearly pretty frustrated.

Sidenote: McCarthy seems like he is always 2 steps behind in the game-planning department, and then doesn't ever make in game adjustments!! (This may be masked by the fact that GB is usually leading whatever game they're playing, but you get the point)

Here's looking forward to an injury free Sunday night street fight! Go hawks!

hawkfan1975":13tvvyjd said:

JSeahawks":13tvvyjd said:

I expect a fairly convincing win.

Something like 34-24.

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After Sunday's game and then back home with 9'rs?...I predict a(nother) serious 9'r beat-down. It's going to be nuts there.

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Told ya.