Week 2 – Seahawks vs. 49ers Game Preview Notes …

Week 2 – Seahawks vs. 49ers Game Preview Notes …

With the 49ers coming in to town this week, NOW it’s time to really party. If you’re as geeked up as me, you’ve undoubtedly got a lot to say regarding this game. As I mentioned in last week, I planned on changing up the format of these previews, as I know there had been an overwhelming amount of information packed in to 1 shot … and there hadn’t been nearly as much discussion as I’d really like.

So, from here on out I’m going to try to hit on various topics related to the game. I’m planning on posting various insights, stats, reports, etc. on a daily basis and shooting to make these postings not nearly as long as they have been. I’ll try to be far briefer and to cut out a lot of the fluff.

My vision with these previews from here on out is to have these be more of a community effort (and not just the ramblings of one guy), so if you find pertinent info (cool stats, analysis, injury news, player or coach comments) related to this week’s game … by all means feel free to post that here guys.

With that said, let’s get to Tuesday’s Game Notes/Thoughts …

Tuesday’s Game Notes …
Run, Baby, Run …

[Page down for Wednesday's Game Notes -- "Necessary Roughness"]

[Page down to Bottom of Pg. 1 for Thursday's Game Notes -- "Flushing the Pheasant"]

[See Pg. 2 for Friday's Game Notes -- "Stopping a Juggernaut"]




As we all know, both the 49ers and the Seahawks are RUN FIRST, pass second teams.

2012 Seahawks …
405 Passing Attempts … 43% of Offense
536 Rushing Attempts … 57% of Offense

2012 SF 49ers …
436 Passing Attempts … 47% of Offense
492 Rushing Attempts … 53% of Offense

With that in mind, let’s spend this session of game notes by taking an in depth look at some of the numbers related to the 49ers Running Attack, seeing what we might possibly be able to glean …

In Week 7 last year …

the Seahawks came in to their matchup with the 49ers as the 3rd Best Rush Defense in the NFL, having given up an average of only 70 yards per game.

San Francisco trampled the Hawks at Candlestick by logging 175 yards on the ground … and Frank Gore gored the Seahawks for 131 yards on only 16 carries.

The 49ers had a total of 32 rushing attempts in that game. Adding up all the yardage from just those 11 plays … comes out to 140 yards. Interestingly, 140 of San Francisco’s 175 total rushing yards came on those 11 plays alone.

And we can break it down even further than that. Looking at those runs listed above … 115 of the 49ers 175 yards in the game (65.7% of their total rushing yardage) came on just 7 runs. On the rest of San Francisco’s 25 runs … they averaged just 2.4 yards/rush.

Looking at the distribution of runs from that game is also fairly informative. While San Francisco had its biggest play off the left side (Red Bryant’s side) for 37 yards, that’s only 1 play – it happens in the NFL. However, looking at the numbers I just laid out above the 49ers had 5 of their biggest runs of that night come from straight up the middle.


In their Week 16 (42-13 blowout of the Niners) last season …

the Hawks obviously made a lot of necessary adjustments in how they attacked the Niners. But what do the rushing numbers look like from that game?

The 49ers gained 82 yards on 19 carries (4.3 yards/carry).
Kaepernick gained 31 yards on 7 carries (4.4 yards/carry) …
Frank Gore gained 28 yards on 6 carries (4.7 yards/carry) …
LaMichael James gained 15 yards on 4 carries (3.8 yards/carry) …
Anthony Dixon gained 8 yards on 2 carries (4.0 yards/carry) …

So even though the Seahawks won big time … and greatly minimized the impact of San Fran’s running game, they still allowed the Niners to rumble for fairly sizeable gains per carry.

Here is the distribution of runs from that game …

Left End … 5 runs for 20 yards
Left Tackle … 1 run for 0 gain and a fumble on the play.
Middle/Guard … 7 runs for 38 yards (18 of those on a run by Gore in the 3rd Q)
Right Tackle … 5 runs for 16 yards
Right End … 1 run for 8 yards

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So, interestingly enough, 7 of San Francisco’s 19 runs that night (37%) went right up the middle.

Is that significant? Well according to Football Outsiders, it most certainly is. The following is a detailed breakdown of the 49ers Rushing Attack comparing it with those tendencies of the Seahawks …


As you can see, the 49ers ran the ball right up the middle 49% of the time … and got the lion’s share of their yards specifically up the middle or right through that A and B gaps on the left side of that San Francisco Offensive Line. A whopping 82% of their running attack in 2012 came from that direction.

The Seahawks on the other hand, gained the majority of their yards either straight up the middle or off tackle.

Last week in the 49ers-Green Bay game … that trend continued for the Niners.

20 of San Francisco’s 33 plays were either off guard or straight up the middle (though they ran 10 plays off right guard and 5 off left guard.) Only 4 times in that game did they run off Right Tackle … none off Left Tackle.

How the Seahawks handle C Jonathan Goodwin and LG Mike Iupati specifically will go a long ways towards deciding this game.

Brandon Mebane, K.J. Wright, and Bobby Wagner in particular had better be on their game Sunday … because the numbers and history say that most of the time, the ball will be coming your way.

Nice work, great read, thank you sir :th2thumbs:

Thanks Hawkscanner!

Hopefully Browner plays Sunday. I can't imagine Boldin being as effective vs us, as he was vs the Packers.

Pretty good assessment of this upcoming game. With the intensity of the crowd, the niners must establish the run to be successful. This is going to be a real good test for San Francisco. I can't wait for this game to come!

Thanks, but it looks like you forgot to post the numbers from the week 7 game?

This analysis concerns me because I'm not too sure that we are better than we were last year in defending the middle run. In the first game last year, Wagner's inexperience showed. And, the second game their run offense became irrelevant due to the lopsided score. I hope we can put them in that position again early in the game...

I would definitely expect the Niners to try and establish the run way more than they did last year. 19 runs was really because they were behind 14-0 after only a handful of offensive snaps, so they tried to slow things down on that next drive, FG got blocked, and they were screwed. Since Seattle had little reason to stop the run after that, the average was a bit skewed on the kind side.

I would suspect the Niners want at least 30 runs.

Good depth of analysis, and in a digestible amount. :th2thumbs: :thirishdrinkers:

Since Jesse Williams is a redshirt freshman now and Jordan Hill is injured, I am concerned that our attempts to help out Mebane and solidify the middle against the run have yet to pan out. McDaniel has the size to be a monster, but that's a wait-and-see. Has anyone heard an update on Jordan Hill?

Scottemojo":24iuem63 said:

I would definitely expect the Niners to try and establish the run way more than they did last year. 19 runs was really because they were behind 14-0 after only a handful of offensive snaps, so they tried to slow things down on that next drive, FG got blocked, and they were screwed. Since Seattle had little reason to stop the run after that, the average was a bit skewed on the kind side.

I would suspect the Niners want at least 30 runs.

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Agreed. I expect a healthy dose of runs from them this week.

Considering we were giving up almost 5 ypc to the Carolina RB, they would be crazy not to cram the run down our throats.

Especially with one of our best run support corners being injured.

Wednesday’s Game Notes …

Necessary Roughness …


I’ve spent quite a bit of time over the past few days dissecting Seattle and San Fran’s last meeting, trying to determine what allowed the Hawks to so completely dominate that game.


In the 49ers very 1st Series of the Game … Seattle immediately forced a 3 and out.
The Hawks got the ball back with 14:29 on the clock. Leon Washington had a 15 yard punt return. SF had an Unnecessary Roughness penalty which tacked on 15 more yards.

2 plays and an extra point later (an 11 yard completion to Zack Miller and a 24 yard romp by Lynch), the Hawks had a 7-0 lead.

The 49ers get the ball back at the 13:48 mark of the 1st Quarter. A mere 6 plays and 17 yards later, the Niners punt the ball after a stiff Seattle D stops the offense cold.

The Seahawks get the ball back at the 9:40 mark of the 1st Quarter. A 7 yard Beast Mode run and a 43 yard Russell Wilson to Doug Baldwin connection lands the Hawks back in San Francisco’s side at the 36 yard line.

The Hawks score 7 plays later via a nice mix of run and pass (5 runs, a 14 yard strike to Rice, and a 9 yd pass to Lynch in the end zone.)

The Niners get the ball back at the 4:26 mark. After a fumble by Frank Gore, the offense marches down the field, assisted by a bogus Unnecessary Roughness penalty on Kam Chancellor.

David Akers attempts a 21 yard kick from Seattle’s 3 yard line … which big Red Bryant gets his paws up and blocks. Richard Sherman scoops up the ball and races 90 yards the other way for the touchdown. It’s 21-0 Seattle at the 14:05 minute mark of the 2nd Quarter.

San Francisco gets the ball back at the 14:05 mark of the 2nd Quarter and will run the ball only 1 time the remainder of the half. They will not attempt a run again until under 3 minutes remaining in the 3rd Quarter.

Seattle is virtually free to pin its ears back for the remainder of the game, holding Kaepernick and the 49er Offense to 219 yards passing … 53 yards rushing … and keeping them out of the end zone until a last second touchdown in garbage time. The Legion of Boom forced Kaepernick and the 49ers in to 2 other costly turnovers that were turned in to Seattle points.

What lessons can we learn from that epic beatdown that could be keys for the Seahawks heading in to this game?

Seahawks Keys to Victory …

1) Strike first, strike hard, no mercy sir. The Seahawks and the 12th Man came out with an attitude ready to drive this 49ers team in to the ground on the 1st series of the game. The defense absolutely smothered the Niner offense right off the bat, and the offense was efficient, scoring early and often. The Hawks set the tone for this game early and never looked back.

2) Make the Big Play. It sounds cliché, but the Seahawks won this game because of timely made big plays, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Marshawn Lynch rumbles 24 yards for the Hawks 1st score … Doug Baldwin hauls in a key 43 yard reception on Seattle’s 2nd scoring drive … and Red Bryant blocks a punt that Richard Sherman returns for a touchdown to name a few.

3) Be Stingy As always, dominating the Time of Possession will be crucial if the Seahawks are going to knock off this team on Sunday. And they did exactly that last time ...

Time of Possession
Seahawks … 35:09
49ers ……... 24:51

Though it's encouraging to see the kind of numbers that Russell Wilson generated in Carolina, to win this one I'd argue that they need to unleash the Beast and let him rampage in order to keep Kaepernick and that 49er attack off the field as much as possible.

4) Single Point Perspective. As noted above, the Seahawks, both through a combination of hard nosed defense and lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine, forced this 49er Team to abandon the run very early in the 2nd Quarter. That (of course) allowed the Hawks offense to be able to tee off, as they knew San Francisco was forced to throw the ball. Though I don’t expect San Fran to abandon the run this time (in fact I expect them to look to make a major commitment to it) … forcing the 49ers in to long down and distance situations should be the goal for this ball hawking opportunistic secondary.


Injury Report for Wednesday 9/11/13 …


49ers ...
RB LaMichael James did not practice on Wednesday with an MCL Sprain that he suffered in the 49ers Preseason finale. Initial reports were he would miss 3-4 weeks.

Other than that, the Niners appear healthy otherwise.

Seahawks ...
DE Cliff Avril was a Limited Participant with a hamstring issue. Reports continue to be optimistic that he'll play this weekend.

T Michael Bowie was a Limited Participant with a shoulder issue he sustained in the Seahawks last Preseason game against Oakland.

CB Brandon Browner was listed as not having practiced due to his hamstring injury. Carroll said in his Wednesday press conference that Browner would run today and practice on Thursday. He stated that he thought that Browner had a real chance to play on Sunday. If he can't for some reason, Byron Maxwell will start in his place with Walter Thurmond sliding over to the Nickel Corner spot.

LEO Chris Clemons (knee) was a limited participant in practice today. It was his first action in practice since tearing his ACL and MCL. He’s still probably a couple of weeks away from returning to game action.

DT Jordan Hill has a tore biceps and is listed as not having practiced today. He’s been out of commission for a few weeks now.

SS Jeron Johnson (hamstring) did not participate today in practice on Wednesday. He injured his hamstring in the Carolina game.

DT Brandon Mebane was listed today as dealing with an ankle issue and did not practice. He was dealing with a groin injury a few weeks ago – this ankle problem is something new.

WR Sidney Rice was a limited participant in practice with a knee issue. Undoubtedly, this is merely Pete Carroll’s way of keeping him fresh for Sundays rather than him having to fly to Switzerland for treatment every week. I’d expect him to play this weekend.

TE Luke Willson was listed with an oblique issue. He apparently injured it in the Carolina game, but fully participated in practice today.


Last but not least in the “Uh-Huh” department, John Schneider and company inked TE Kellen Davis to a deal today. Davis played in 16 games with the Bears last season, catching 19 passes for 229 yards and 2 TD. He’s being brought in though primarily for his blocking skills. Are the Hawks hoping to compensate for the nastiness that Michael Robinson provided them in the running game last year? I’d find it hard to argue otherwise.

Scottemojo":2wqzd2qk said:

I would definitely expect the Niners to try and establish the run way more than they did last year. 19 runs was really because they were behind 14-0 after only a handful of offensive snaps, so they tried to slow things down on that next drive, FG got blocked, and they were screwed. Since Seattle had little reason to stop the run after that, the average was a bit skewed on the kind side.

I would suspect the Niners want at least 30 runs.

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I completely agree Scott that that is exactly what the Niners want to do. As I noted in my latest post, after the Hawks made it a quick 21-0 thumping ... the 49ers basically abandoned the run and the Hawks were free to basically tee off on Kaepernick, as they knew the Niners really weren't running the ball anymore. Getting off to a fast start and setting the tone early will be critical IMO.

I'm curious to get your take (X's and O's wise) on some of the numbers that I noted above in terms of the 49ers run tendencies. Any thoughts on how the Seahawks could possibly scheme for that and use those tendencies to their advantage?

Not good news about Mebane. He's already nursing that other injury. I think we're going to miss guys like Alan Branch. McDaniel needs to bring it.

I see SF breaking 100 rushing on us easily this week unless we force some turnovers. They're not going to try to air it out like last time.

Offense is going to need some time consuming drives because SF is going to get their points. Hope I'm wrong.

I'm sure that someone has posted this in another thread somewhere, but since I'm not seeing this right off the bat I'll go ahead and post this here.

On Wednesday, Colin Kaepernick spoke to the media. He was asked about the 12th Man and how much of a factor that played. Here is what he had to say ...

Asked if the notable crowd noise at CenturyLink caused problems for the Niners last season, Kaepernick gave a verbal shrug: “I think our efficiency in the huddle was more of a factor than the crowd.”

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Source:
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2013/sep/12/hawks-speak-easy/

You hear that 12's? Kaepernick has in essence called you out. No, it's worse than that ... he's totally dismissed you -- basically giving you no respect at all, brushing away the 12th Man as if you were but a mere annoying gnat.

Talk about bulletin board material. I'm hoping that this is the reaction of the 12th Man on Sunday ...



According to Guinness. the World Record for crowd noise ever recorded was 131.76 during a Turkish soccer match in 2011. The media noted back in July that Seahawk fans had it as their goal to break that record against the 49ers this Sunday. Here's to hoping that windows from nearby buildings shatter ... and that Kaepernick and the Niners will be even less efficient in the huddle.

Keapernick has to say the noise wasn't a factor. To admit it was is to say they can't win in Seattle.

On your post about hard hitting, I expect the start of the game to be brutal. Refs are going to be on edge, Hawks will be fired up for the opener, and the Niners are no doubt still thinking about how they got manhandled last time.
Watching our Carolina game with a Packer fan, he was amazed at how almost every single tackle Seattle makes is painful to watch. I watched a bunch of games, and he is right, no team tackles as hard as the Hawks. Not the Niners, not anybody. And this team is as well coached on punching at the ball as any of Lovie Smith's teams ever where, and that is saying something.

In the first game with the Niners last year, it was trap plays where they earholed our defensive tackles that set the tone for that game. Bennett better keep his head on a swivel, his is the quick penetrating style they like to punish with those traps. But that goes both ways.

Tough and physical football is essential in this game more than most. The stuff that Clay Matthews did last week? That is a mirage, an attempt to manufacture toughness, almost as if he was embarrassed by his team losing the physical battle. Same goes for Anthony Davis and how his stupid ass played in the 4th quarter last year in Seattle. That is not physical football, it is just post whistle antics from an embarrassed player. Same goes for all the posturing you see from guys like Culliver and Brown. Justin Smith, now that is a tough guy. Aldon? He has both quit and wench in his game, it just takes a tough guy to get it out of him. Okung and Breno should be up to that task. Just watch Aldon as the game wears on and the running backs keep coming his way. His want to will evaporate when he isn't glory dogging.

Scottemojo":3johs7v4 said:

Keapernick has to say the noise wasn't a factor. To admit it was is to say they can't win in Seattle.

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Shhhhh ... it's all about employing a little psychology. LOL!

Totally agree on your comments regarding the level of hitting that we're likely to see. What I believe is going to be crucial for the Hawks is setting the tone -- coming out early (both on offense and defense) and punching them in the mouth so to speak. That last matchup was really over by the early 2nd quarter, as the Niners got buried early. I don't expect that to happen this time, but that's the mentality that I'm coming in to this game with if I'm the Seahawks.

Scottemojo":3johs7v4 said:

In the first game with the Niners last year, it was trap plays where they earholed our defensive tackles that set the tone for that game. Bennett better keep his head on a swivel, his is the quick penetrating style they like to punish with those traps. But that goes both ways.

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Yeah, we got absolutely gashed on quick hitting trap plays in that 1st Meeting last year. Ironically, many of those looked like almost the same kinds of traps that WE used to gash people on under Holmgren. Probably would be a good strategy for us as well -- just my opinion.

The numbers clearly show that the 49ers REALLY like to bang those runs out either straight up the middle or over that left side. Any X's and O's thoughts on how Quinn might attack the 49ers running game?

Thursday’s Game Notes …
Flushing the Pheasant …



Needless to say after the way that Kaepernick and the 49ers lit up the Packers secondary like a pinball machine, I’ve been spending a lot of time taking a look at the 49er passing attack. Before we get started on that, let’s take a look at some of the numbers from last year …


One thing that appeared to be an issue for the 49ers all year long was their pass protection. Believe it or not, in 2012 according to their latest rankings, had San Francisco’s Offensive Line ranked #32 overall (Dead Last) in terms of their pass protection.

Kaepernick spent a fair amount of time on the fly last season, racking up 415 yards on the ground and scoring 5 rushing TD’s.

We’ve talked at length about Russell Wilson and what a nightmare he is to opposing defenses – especially when he starts to move. What about Colin Kaepernick though? Mike Sando had an interesting piece at the tail end of December in which he cited an analysis by Greg Cosell, taking a look at Total QBR Ratings Insider the Pocket vs. Outside the pocket. The numbers are rather striking and really highlight a major key to this game on Sunday …

Source:
ESPN NFC West Blog

For those who haven’t taken a look at Total QBR much, this is a statistic that the brain trust over at ESPN developed in order to help evaluate just how good a QB is when the game really matters. One problem with the traditional QB Rating is that it can have a tendency to get inflated due to numbers put up during garbage time with a lot of high percentage short throws that don’t matter. Total QBR attempts to screen all that out and aims to identify how a QB performs under the lights, in the clutch, when the game is on the line. A value of between 65-70 and above for a season is generally considered Pro Bowl Level. Ratings around 50 for a season are considered average. Really low numbers over time indicate QB’s who tend to make mistakes in pressure situations.

The numbers clearly show that Russell Wilson on the run still performs at a near Pro Bowl Level. Colin Kaepernick on the other hand … not so much.

To give you guys some comparisons from last season …

In the Seahawks 50-17 blowout of the Bills last year, Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 21 of 38 passes (55.3%) for 217 yards … 1 TD … 2 INT for a Total QBR Rating of 19.7

In the Seahawks 16-12 win against the Panthers last October, Cam Newton completed 12 of 29 passes (41.4%) for 141 yards for a Total QBR of 14.6

In the Seahawks 42-13 route of the Niners, Kaepernick completed 19 of 36 passes (52.7%) for 244 yards … 1 TD … and 1 INT for a Total QBR of 27.6 (so he performs even worse once he’s flushed out of the pocket.)

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The numbers clearly show that if you pressure Colin Kaepernick and get him on the move that he makes mistakes. Kaepernick had 9 fumbles last year … 7 of which were on plays in which he chose to run the ball.

So unlike Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick is one that teams WANT to pressure and force out of the pocket.

Getting consistent pressure on Kaepernick, as much as anything, will be a major key for the Seahawks as we look forward to this weekend’s matchup. Continue to monitor those injury updates on Cliff Avril folks.

Last season, the 49ers offensive line was beat up and badly injured and a fast stat by Seattle forced the 49ers to abandon the run and move to a passing offense. I would not count on a repeat of that. Kaepernick has an unbelievable arm strength, good accuracy, and he has a lot more experience forcing plays when playing behind as evidenced in the post-season against Atlanta and Baltimore.

Seattle is the type of team that matches up well against the 49ers, so it will probably be a very competitive game. Given the speed of Kaepernick and the 49ers running backs, teams are forced to make a Hobson's choice to either keeping Kaepernick in the pocket (where he's an excellent passer and a serious long threat) or not. If they choose not, it opens up the kind of lanes that we saw in the Green Bay last year.

San Francisco is facing a similar situation, given the strength of the Seattle running game and the quality of Wilson as a pocket passer. This time though, the 49ers' offensive line is fresh and Kaepernick has experience. I have a feeling whoever wins tomorrow is going to do so with a good amount of luck. It should be a good game.

hoxrox":148kohag said:

Not good news about Mebane. He's already nursing that other injury. I think we're going to miss guys like Alan Branch. McDaniel needs to bring it.

I see SF breaking 100 rushing on us easily this week unless we force some turnovers. They're not going to try to air it out like last time.

Offense is going to need some time consuming drives because SF is going to get their points. Hope I'm wrong.

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I agree... I think we should key in on the run and play a 1 high safety... Put the corners on an island. GB took away the run successfully but completely imploded on the back end as a result. At least let's see how our corners fair in man coverage and eliminate the ground game and limit their TOP.....

CandlestickBum":1360cehe said:

Last season, the 49ers offensive line was beat up and badly injured and a fast stat by Seattle forced the 49ers to abandon the run and move to a passing offense. I would not count on a repeat of that. Kaepernick has an unbelievable arm strength, good accuracy, and he has a lot more experience forcing plays when playing behind as evidenced in the post-season against Atlanta and Baltimore.

Seattle is the type of team that matches up well against the 49ers, so it will probably be a very competitive game. Given the speed of Kaepernick and the 49ers running backs, teams are forced to make a Hobson's choice to either keeping Kaepernick in the pocket (where he's an excellent passer and a serious long threat) or not. If they choose not, it opens up the kind of lanes that we saw in the Green Bay last year.

San Francisco is facing a similar situation, given the strength of the Seattle running game and the quality of Wilson as a pocket passer. This time though, the 49ers' offensive line is fresh and Kaepernick has experience. I have a feeling whoever wins tomorrow is going to do so with a good amount of luck. It should be a good game.

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Given the speed of the Seattle defense, quarterbacks are forced to make a Hobson's choice to either go for the sideline or the slide.
I love it when SF fans talk to us like we need a primer of the skills their players have.

The 49ers won't have near the success passing the ball against us as they did against the Packers. For them to win, they'll have to play the way they did in the first game against us last year.

I fully expect them to come out and try to establish the run early, and proabably try to pulling guards and establish play action off of that. It actually sounds like a lot of what we do, only we don't pull guards.

We'll have Kam in the box and Earl playing shallow early, if we can force them into 3 and long situations instead of 3rd and shorts, we should be good.