Okay, I took the final 4 games (weeks 14-17) and compared them to what should be considered a good stretch of games in which our offense thrived (weeks 9-13 which included a bye so it still comes out to 4 games).
The idea was to see what types of plays we ran (run/pass, how often, to whom and with what result). Basically I used a really cool website to pull two result sets then put the results side by side so it was nothing too complicated.
Here's the data:
| | | | | | | Play Results | Play Results | Play Results | Play Results | Play Results | Play Results | Play Types | Play Types |
|---|
| wk 9-13 | G | Plays | ToGo | Yds | 1st% | TO% | TD | FG | 1st | Int | Fum | Sack | Pass | Rush |
|---|
| 4 | 47 | 6.72 | 3.68 | 36.20% | 2.10% | 12 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 30 |
| | | | | | | 25.50% | 9.6% | 36.20% | 2.10% | 0% | 0% | 36.20% | 63.80% |
| wk 14-17 | 4 | 38 | 6.13 | 2.58 | 31.60% | 0.00% | 5 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 20 |
|---|
| | | | | | | 13.20% | 11.4% | 31.60% | 0% | 0% | 13.20% | 47.40% | 52.60% |
Items of note:
- Seattle had fewer trips into the red zone overall (11 vs 17).
- Ratio of trips to touchdowns is much worse (hopefully our data further down will highlight why).
- Russell was sacked 5 times (13% of total plays inside of the red zone) in weeks 14-17 (2/5 inside the 2 yard line, 4/5 inside the 5 and all 5 being inside of the 10 yard line).
- Pass to run ratio does not look to have swayed drastically in one direction or the other.
| Passing | Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Y/A | Rate |
|---|
| wk 9-13 | Russell Wilson | 10 | 16 | 62.50% | 85 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5.3 | 89.8 |
|---|
| wk 14-17 | Russell Wilson | 5 | 13 | 38.50% | 57 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4.4 | 92 |
|---|
Items of note:
- Russell had a MUCH lower completion percentage in weeks 14-17. Given the sack totals, it might be fair to conclude that he was hurried more as well. I recall seeing a chart that showed Russell's passing accuracy in the red zone about a month ago and it was VERY impressve. Perhaps teams have decided to pressure him in the red zone more often in an effort to force rushed throws? Just a theory.
- Obviously weeks 14-17 show a 75% drop in TDs but he hasn't thrown any picks. Yards per attempt are down but passer rating is up (odd?).
| Rushing | Player | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD |
|---|
| wk 9-13 | Russell Wilson | 7 | 40 | 5.71 | 1 |
|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 34 | 1.79 | 3 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Totals | 29 | 88 | 3.03 | 4 |
|---|
| wk 14-17 | Marshawn Lynch | 16 | 52 | 3.25 | 3 |
|---|
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 16 | 8 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 20 | 71 | 3.55 | 3 |
|---|
Items of note:
- Marshawn has been more effective on the ground inside of the red zone from a Y/A standpoint (which surprised me).
- Russell has noticably run the ball less inside the red zone. Either he's been contained or simply chose to run less.
| Receiving | Player | T | C | Pct | Yds | TD |
|---|
| wk 9-13 | Doug Baldwin | 5 | 3 | 60.00% | 33 | 3 |
|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 2 | 50.00% | 23 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 100.00% | 13 | 1 |
| Derrick Coleman | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | 8 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 1 | 50.00% | 6 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 1 | 50.00% | 2 | 1 |
| Totals | 16 | 10 | 62.50% | 85 | 8 |
|---|
| wk 14-17 | Doug Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 100.00% | 25 | 1 |
|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 2 | 50.00% | 21 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 1 | 33.30% | 11 | 1 |
| Michael Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 11 | 5 | 45.50% | 57 | 2 |
|---|
Items of note:
- Baldwin was targeted the most in weeks 9-13, was the only receiver with more than one red zone TD and was targeted less in weeks 14-17. Maybe teams are emphasizing coverage on him inside of the red zone, could be play calling but it was the first thing to jump out at me.
- Overall completion percentage took a significant hit.
In Summary:
We made fewer trips, ran the ball at a higher rate than we passed and had better production (with similar results) in the run game but failed pretty miserably at passing inside the red zone over the final four weeks of the season.
Given what we can get from the stats, I'll be interested to go back and watch some of those red zone series and see how defenses seemed to be defending against the pass though I'd be more interested to hear what someone who actually knows about football thinks about those plays specificall. Maybe show us how teams are defending in the red zone and maybe call out any changes that have been made? Or, is it simply a lack of execution by the offense?
[edit] **Field goals are not included in play count but the percentages are accurate. I simply did not want actual field goal downs to be reflected in the play totals because they would skew the averages for yards per play. The percentages however, are based on total plays that include that play type.
