Mel Kiper still doesn't wanna admit he's wrong

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  • Our man Eric Williams had Kiper re-evaluate his thoughts as the Hawks stand 6-4. Kiper summed it up by saying it has been “a little better than I thought it would be.” Here’s his transcript of the Kiper interview:



    Read more here: http://blog.thenewstribune.com/seahawks ... rylink=cpy

    Umm, you mean, it's been WAY BETTER than you thought it would be. You graded our draft class not as below average, not as bad, but as the WORST in the NFL, and now we look to have the best draft class based on early returns, which are VERY promising.

    Ugh.
    Last edited by hawksfan515 on Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • Guy is absolutely clueless. I've decided that from now on, I WANT HIM to say our draft was horrible. He's not even man enough to admit he was completely wrong. I love how he gets all butt hurt when a team doesn't pick who HE thinks they should, only to find that player, or players turning out to be killer picks. Screw him and all the "experts."

    And of course, this is the guy who was all gushing over Aaron Curry :th2thumbs:
    Last edited by SoulfishHawk on Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • Mel Kiper is a DB. . . . . . . . . .and not like a safety or a corner.
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  • I think mel's a good guy but he just seems like one of those guys you work with that is full of beans and frequently says dumb things and you just end up ignoring him after awhile. got a few of those where I work at....
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  • Hey Mel, the 80's called. They want their hair-do, suits and opinions back.
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  • If he admits he's wrong, he's also admitting that he's awful at his job, and the fact that he then gets to keep said job presupposes that the job and his entire role in our culture is actually pointless (which they are). So don't expect him to change his tune any time soon, and don't let it upset you.
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  • And yet we keep making threads and talking about him.
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  • Mel Kiper spits
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  • Who cares what Kiper thinks? He doesn't work for us, so ultimately his opinion is worth jack-diddly-squat. He knows in his heart that his opinions are worthless; do we really need him to admit it to a national audience to make ourselves feel better about the awesomeness that's unfolding right here and now?
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  • Yes, I was wondering too, why is he being so stubborn on accepting he is wrong and learn from it. Draft choices should also be measured on the team they fit in, you cant take a high pick and put it in a team where the philosophy or the way the team build up does not suit the pick. Thats my opinion and thats why Seahawks drafted players based on how well would they fit into the system and the philosophy.
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  • Kiper is like your crazy uncle that sits in the corner of the living room on Thanksgiving yelling at the football games on TV, getting all the players names wrong and waxing poetic about The good ol days of the NFL.......out of his mind.......and out of touch.

    Why ESPN keeps letting his old delusional ass on TV is beyond me. There are 100's of better draft analysts out there now a days, one named Rob Rang in our own back yard.
    Last edited by Sgt. Largent on Thu Nov 15, 2012 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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  • Hawkstorian wrote:And yet we keep making threads and talking about him.


    We're giving him bad press, which he deserves
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  • Now, ultimately down the road, it’s going to be Russell Wilson. Is he a quarterback that keeps progressing and ultimately becomes a top-10, top-12 quarterback? If he does, then it’s a phenomenal draft to get him in the third round. That’s ultimately going to determine it.


    Um Mel? :roll:

    1 Peyton Manning, QB DEN 108.0
    2 Aaron Rodgers, QB GB 107.4
    3 Alex Smith, QB SF 104.1
    4 Matt Ryan, QB ATL 102.6
    5 Tom Brady, QB NE 100.1
    6 Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT 100.0
    7 Josh Freeman, QB TB 98.2
    8 Drew Brees, QB NO 97.3
    9 Robert Griffin III, QB WSH 93.9
    10 Matt Schaub, QB HOU 91.7
    11 Andy Dalton, QB CIN 91.1
    12 Russell Wilson, QB SEA 90.5
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  • The problem with Kiper and other draft gurus is you can never prove them absolutely wrong when they say that a club reached and took a certain player earlier than they should have. That's basically what he is now claiming with Irvin, Wagner and Wilson.

    In reality, the Hawks didn't take them too early. Kiper was wrong but proving it is another thing.
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  • twisted_steel2 wrote:
    Now, ultimately down the road, it’s going to be Russell Wilson. Is he a quarterback that keeps progressing and ultimately becomes a top-10, top-12 quarterback? If he does, then it’s a phenomenal draft to get him in the third round. That’s ultimately going to determine it.


    Um Mel? :roll:

    1 Peyton Manning, QB DEN 108.0
    2 Aaron Rodgers, QB GB 107.4
    3 Alex Smith, QB SF 104.1
    4 Matt Ryan, QB ATL 102.6
    5 Tom Brady, QB NE 100.1
    6 Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT 100.0
    7 Josh Freeman, QB TB 98.2
    8 Drew Brees, QB NO 97.3
    9 Robert Griffin III, QB WSH 93.9
    10 Matt Schaub, QB HOU 91.7
    11 Andy Dalton, QB CIN 91.1
    12 Russell Wilson, QB SEA 90.5


    Now I am as big of a RW fan as anyone here but lets not go crazy. This list has Smith as #3 obv hes not a top 3 QB.
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  • The problem with rating any draft pick is the absence of scheme and need as determined by the club itself. Irvin could be considered a reach absent of knowing the scheme, design and intent behind his pick. Every pick in the NFL can be looked at that way. Usually their are picks so obvious, like Luck and Indy, that everyone knows the need. Without specifically understanding what Seattle wanted scheme with Irvin, it can be seen as a reach. In fact, I would bet Irvin would have looked like a reach on quite a few teams because they would have been unwilling to make him fit. That to me is where PC/JS made a great pick in Irvin because weren't picking him based on trying to fit him in there, they had a scheme and needed a player with the required skill set to go along with what they were already going to do. Their belief that they couldn't pass on him in the first round means they felt by the time they would pick next, he would be gone. Sure, maybe Irvin really rated a second round pick by a draft grade in a generic sense, but PC/JS probably didn't look at it as whether he was worth a first round pick per say, rather that he wouldn't survive the draft long enough to be their on their next pick in the draft. That is really all anyone has going into the draft, whether someone(s) with the skill set they want, will be there the next time they pick. Reality isn't they valued Irvin so highly as much as it was his skills were valued that highly for what they wanted to do and they didn't see where anyone with his skill set would be available later on.

    This happen with Wilson. JS was reportedly wanting to pull the trigger on Wilson in the second round, but was talked out of it. Enter Wagner because they believed Wilson was going to be available by the time they picked next, and I bet they felt that Wagner wouldn't be. JS probably was scare Wilson wouldn't be available later, but being talked out of it included a little bit of how they scouted the other teams need on the board. I think here they probably believed Wilson was valued, but the value placed on him was less then their own evaluation, so took the risk because they had a need in the Line Backer Position. I really have no belief Flynn was much of a factor in them believing they had a safety net if JS was so hyped to pull the trigger in the second round. I think QB was still an issue they knew they needed to handle, but had to evaluate when to pull the trigger.

    I think after the 3rd round you simply have a situation where it was less about who they wanted and who was left, and if anyone on their wanted list was left. Enter Turbin. I am pretty sure they had him strong on their board, but addressing a need for more RBs was way down the list behind the needs how the Hawks drafted in the first 3 rounds. There is a lot of internal drama in those first 3 rounds, Turbin though was probably the best available option that fit in the 4th round, and I think we have hardly discovered his value to this team yet because we have the luxury of Lynch in the backfield.

    To be honest, I am in the camp that Wilson has hardly had his say yet in how underrated he was in the draft. I think that if the draft took place again he would be a top 3 pick overall, and the more he plays, the more that is going to be said about him. I don't care that folks think its too soon to say how great Wilson is, Me I love having the fantasy notion spinning tales about the legend he is yet to be and wondering what his HOF speech will be. I will be that sold out fan, illogical conclussions and all because I love the boy in me that saw Largent and Easely play without ever the concept of over analysis.

    To be fair, I also remember my disapointment in the Boz and was approaching the era of being adult and is one of those things that help my adult responsible side argue for cautious declarations. But the kid in me wins out and I am all about screaming dynasty at this point and nobody's logic is going to stop me. Forget kool aid, I am in a hardcore acid induced delusion that I think the world will see over the next 10 years or so.
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  • I will say, this draft class has potential to be historically good (franchise speaking).. so at this moment in time Kiper looks like he's way off.

    Careers are longer than 10 games though folks. If 3 years from now, Wilson, Wagner, Irvin and company still look great - then yeah Kiper is going to look pretty foolish.

    I used to be really into scouting and one of the things I hated to do was grade teams immediately after the draft. Just so many things change on a year to year basis, it makes no sense to grade a team immediately after the fact when NONE of these guys has played a game. Aaron Curry should forever be exhibit A of that.
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  • He's nothing more than a snake oil salesman with unbelievably hilarious hair.
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  • I buy his book every year and have a collection of them going back at least as far as the
    average NFL career. They're a good resource to see what was thought of players five years ago.

    He knows where guys went to high school, when they were injured, and how they were in college.
    He also knows their triangle numbers and some secret way he predicts their draft status.

    Where he is woefully inadequate is in evaluating their strengths and weaknesses. He speaks in
    very general terms that may be easily defended later if need be. He seems to fall down mostly
    when he opens his mouth. He is intolerant of other opinions to the point of being so childish
    that he ends up looking more stupid than I think he really is.

    I understand,(read it somewhere long ago so can't quote or defend) that he was actually offered
    a job as a scout. I think it was either the Colts, when they were in Baltimore, or the Ravens.
    Mel, as most of you know, is a Baltimore guy.

    You gotta remember that he is the guy that kind of thought it up and did it. The "draftnik" was
    created, in large part, by what he was doing when almost nobody else was.

    Saying all that, I sure miss the late Joel Buschbaum. Some say that it was not his obsessive interest
    in the draft, (no wife, no kids, nothing but the draft) but that he had a pipeline to an NFL scout or
    scouts. Whether or not he did, his evaluations were direct with positives and some negatives that
    made you think nobody will draft this kid. I miss that kind of honest evaluation.

    I actually talked to kiper once. I called to order his book and he answered the phone himself.
    When he learned that I was from Washington and a Husky fan, he started talking about the
    Husky cornerbacks. Bill Stapleton and, I believe, Cardinals DC Ray Horton. He was knowledgable
    in a way a fan of the Huskies would be. He came across as an affable and likable guy, not the
    sneering intolerant man I sometimes see on TV. Of course this was back in the Don James era
    and a lot of stuff has gone over the thing since then.

    Maybe it's because he sort of invented and carved out the draft guru position that makes him
    so defensive and bitter sounding sometimes.
    But he still was dead wrong about the Seahawks draft.
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  • two dog wrote:But he still was dead wrong about the Seahawks draft.


    10 games in.

    Get back to me in 3 years.

    For now the opinions he is dead wrong are as valid as the ones that he made following the draft. A LOT of things can change quickly in this league.
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  • Kiper is no different than Hugh Millen or Hasselbeck from this forum. All 3 are current DEAD wrong on Wilson. There is nothing any of them can currently do about it other than what Kiper is saying, Hasselbeck just posted, or what Millen says. All they can do is the "Well it looks good now. Get back to me in 3 years." That's it. And if you listen to Millen on KJR, somehow if Wilson were to fall off in year 3 or 4, it will validate his "If he does ANYTHING in the NFL, I'll eat my mic" comment. LMAO.

    Being stubborn and holding out as long as possible is the only option for overly opinionated individuals who jump out so far on a ledge and swing and miss.

    That all said, I do agree that you don't call a player or draft class an ultimate success after one season. Guys gotta prove it over time. Still, I think the "get back to me" response is about as weak as one can give when they wouldn't be accepting the same reply from their opponents if the show was on the other foot.
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  • I love how Kiper paved the way, and respect the man for doing it for so long, but I think he is kinda old fashion now and just isn't as good as he was. Reminds me of Homlgren to a degree.
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  • madbohem wrote:The problem with rating any draft pick is the absence of scheme and need as determined by the club itself. Irvin could be considered a reach absent of knowing the scheme, design and intent behind his pick. Every pick in the NFL can be looked at that way. Usually their are picks so obvious, like Luck and Indy, that everyone knows the need. Without specifically understanding what Seattle wanted scheme with Irvin, it can be seen as a reach. In fact, I would bet Irvin would have looked like a reach on quite a few teams because they would have been unwilling to make him fit. That to me is where PC/JS made a great pick in Irvin because weren't picking him based on trying to fit him in there, they had a scheme and needed a player with the required skill set to go along with what they were already going to do. Their belief that they couldn't pass on him in the first round means they felt by the time they would pick next, he would be gone. Sure, maybe Irvin really rated a second round pick by a draft grade in a generic sense, but PC/JS probably didn't look at it as whether he was worth a first round pick per say, rather that he wouldn't survive the draft long enough to be their on their next pick in the draft. That is really all anyone has going into the draft, whether someone(s) with the skill set they want, will be there the next time they pick. Reality isn't they valued Irvin so highly as much as it was his skills were valued that highly for what they wanted to do and they didn't see where anyone with his skill set would be available later on.

    This happen with Wilson. JS was reportedly wanting to pull the trigger on Wilson in the second round, but was talked out of it. Enter Wagner because they believed Wilson was going to be available by the time they picked next, and I bet they felt that Wagner wouldn't be. JS probably was scare Wilson wouldn't be available later, but being talked out of it included a little bit of how they scouted the other teams need on the board. I think here they probably believed Wilson was valued, but the value placed on him was less then their own evaluation, so took the risk because they had a need in the Line Backer Position. I really have no belief Flynn was much of a factor in them believing they had a safety net if JS was so hyped to pull the trigger in the second round. I think QB was still an issue they knew they needed to handle, but had to evaluate when to pull the trigger.

    I think after the 3rd round you simply have a situation where it was less about who they wanted and who was left, and if anyone on their wanted list was left. Enter Turbin. I am pretty sure they had him strong on their board, but addressing a need for more RBs was way down the list behind the needs how the Hawks drafted in the first 3 rounds. There is a lot of internal drama in those first 3 rounds, Turbin though was probably the best available option that fit in the 4th round, and I think we have hardly discovered his value to this team yet because we have the luxury of Lynch in the backfield.

    To be honest, I am in the camp that Wilson has hardly had his say yet in how underrated he was in the draft. I think that if the draft took place again he would be a top 3 pick overall, and the more he plays, the more that is going to be said about him. I don't care that folks think its too soon to say how great Wilson is, Me I love having the fantasy notion spinning tales about the legend he is yet to be and wondering what his HOF speech will be. I will be that sold out fan, illogical conclussions and all because I love the boy in me that saw Largent and Easely play without ever the concept of over analysis.

    To be fair, I also remember my disapointment in the Boz and was approaching the era of being adult and is one of those things that help my adult responsible side argue for cautious declarations. But the kid in me wins out and I am all about screaming dynasty at this point and nobody's logic is going to stop me. Forget kool aid, I am in a hardcore acid induced delusion that I think the world will see over the next 10 years or so.


    Excellent Post.

    And I believe scheme fit is even a bigger for us than others because of the hybrid front we use. Not to mention the big, lanky press-man corners Pete covets. Other teams may begin to copy us if we have some sustained success, but right now we're ahead of the curve.
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  • RG3 is 8th and the team is 3-6? Wow they must suck, wish they were on the schedule.
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  • The most telling part for me was during the draft when his buddy McShay said, "I know I haven't been doing this for what, 28 years like you , but..."

    Kiper Jr interrupts, "29."

    Delta bravo..
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  • Allow me to bravely defend Mel Kiper. He is an idiot for being overconfident, but his failing is the same as everybody else who attempts to grade drafts from the outside.

    He graded us "worst in the NFL" on value because he felt that we could have gotten our players later than we did. Right down the line he had each of our picks going later than we took them, and so in his mind we left value on the table. In reality, we simply do not know whether Bruce Irvin would still have been on the table or not if we traded back five spots. Maybe the rumors with the Jets were real and maybe they weren't, or maybe the Steelers would have really taken him. Even the most informed insiders do not know exactly how all 32 teams have their boards ranked.

    How our draft picks play this year is irrelevant when it comes to whether we could have drafted them later than we did or not. Every single one of them could be a pro bowler, and if we could have really drafted them all one round later than we deserve to be marked down on value.
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  • AgentDib wrote:Allow me to bravely defend Mel Kiper. He is an idiot for being overconfident, but his failing is the same as everybody else who attempts to grade drafts from the outside.

    He graded us "worst in the NFL" on value because he felt that we could have gotten our players later than we did. Right down the line he had each of our picks going later than we took them, and so in his mind we left value on the table. In reality, we simply do not know whether Bruce Irvin would still have been on the table or not if we traded back five spots. Maybe the rumors with the Jets were real and maybe they weren't, or maybe the Steelers would have really taken him. Even the most informed insiders do not know exactly how all 32 teams have their boards ranked.

    How our draft picks play this year is irrelevant when it comes to whether we could have drafted them later than we did or not. Every single one of them could be a pro bowler, and if we could have really drafted them all one round later than we deserve to be marked down on value.


    But, as we have heard (you pointed out) rumors that those players wouldn't be there, then Kiper's opinion is irrelevant.

    You can't go back and say for certain this player or that would have or wouldn't have been there, so I believe value is essentially determined by how those players play.

    What we have in reality is an amateur draft that is exciting for fanbases, but those fans opinions are shaped by Analyst. The Analyst make a lot of money and sway a lot of emotions. When I was a teenager, what Mel said or thought was important. After having players folks thought highly of drafted to our team and then bombing out, I've learned that I would rather take every thing with a grain of salt.

    Good Analysis has suffered due to the need for Instant Analysis. Teams draft, and all these guys have opinions.

    Right now, the only guy who's opinion I care about from an analyst point of view is Mike Mayock. I also like Jon Gruden (because he just seems to mostly be in player's corners and I like his personality - shallow, I know.)
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  • I absolutely hate this guy and especially his rediculous haircut.

    THAT SAID, hindsight is always a luxury nobody has during the actual draft. how many of you were truly excited about the draft picks?
    let me remind you, my fellow Seahawks fans... this was the reaction of like 90% of fans as I remember it.

    1 Round... BRUCE WHO? WTF? ugh I guess after watching some youtube videos I can see how this kid has huge upside. lets hope he pans out.
    2 Round... WAGNER??? WHO? OK I suppose he was a star LB in college, but Utah State is not exactly an elite school, so the jury is still out.
    3 Round... OK really, a short QB? After we just picked up Flynn for this much money? I dont get it, what a waste of a pick, I wanted LaMichael James!
    4 Round... DAMN YOU NINERS! HOW DARE YOU STEAL OUR LJ! booo! OK fine, lets check out the youtube. wow, look at this dude's arms! I like the pick! a great powerback, but I really wanted Michael Bush...

    etc.

    the final verdict on the draft by concensus was what? a B+ at best?
    and most East Coast people were laughing uncontrollably. Mel Kipers, being a douche he is, included.

    the moral of the story is that our front office guys are pure geniouses, and the rest of us aren't.
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  • .
    .
    .
    .
    <-------

    The point Bipolar makes is a good one. However, I will say that as someone who watched Irvin play, I was not worried. And, as someone who watched Wilson play, I was not worried. As I have said a few times, I was jumping up and down exuberant over the Wilson pick.

    The problem with anyone who takes any of the predictions on value seriously, is that none of the pundits truly know how teams' draft boards look. As I was watching the draft unfold, I realized that the guy who was going up the ladder to erase names off our board as other teams selected know thousands of times more than the people who are paid by the networks for their analysis.
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  • AgentDib wrote:Allow me to bravely defend Mel Kiper. He is an idiot for being overconfident, but his failing is the same as everybody else who attempts to grade drafts from the outside.

    He graded us "worst in the NFL" on value because he felt that we could have gotten our players later than we did. Right down the line he had each of our picks going later than we took them, and so in his mind we left value on the table. In reality, we simply do not know whether Bruce Irvin would still have been on the table or not if we traded back five spots. Maybe the rumors with the Jets were real and maybe they weren't, or maybe the Steelers would have really taken him. Even the most informed insiders do not know exactly how all 32 teams have their boards ranked.

    How our draft picks play this year is irrelevant when it comes to whether we could have drafted them later than we did or not. Every single one of them could be a pro bowler, and if we could have really drafted them all one round later than we deserve to be marked down on value.


    So you say Mel Kiper Jr is an idiot and you defend him because no one actually knows how all the teams will pick? Lame excuse. He's a high profile analyst who is a supposed expert and insider for many NFL and ESPN people. Not only did he suck at his job but he argued with a more knowledgeable source (Gruden) on TV over RW's height while ignoring RW's production and record. Defend that one with your lame excuse.
    Mel Kiper JR is a stupid pompous fool. End of story.
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  • Hasselbeck wrote:
    two dog wrote:But he still was dead wrong about the Seahawks draft.


    10 games in.

    Get back to me in 3 years.

    For now the opinions he is dead wrong are as valid as the ones that he made following the draft. A LOT of things can change quickly in this league.


    Lofa Tatupa then was a complete and total bust. There's no way we should be calling him a Seahawk legend or that he should ever raise the 12th man flag or anything else. Afterall, his best game was within his first ten games against Philadelphia in Philly on a Monday Night, which is the game many see as catapulting the Hawks to the top of the league and ultimately the Super Bowl.

    He had a pretty good game against Carolina in the NFCCG, but also suffered a concussion and then started racking up injuries and got that dumb DUI.

    Is this how it's going to be then? We can't appreciate Russell Wilson for now and say that he's got the best winning percentage of any QB ever in NFL history at home (with their cut-off point of a minimum of 10 games started, which was the graphic I saw the other day that didn't include Wilson... they just were listing the best home QB's and picked the 10 games started as their point of sample size, so I figured it it is good enough for the NFL, it's good enough for me).

    I think I'll choose to enjoy what he's done so far, and even if he did peak, I'll still look back on this year just like I did on Lofa's career. A guy that was considered a "reach" by everybody, including many of the fans, and came in and set the league on fire as a rookie, and made this team exciting to watch. I've enjoyed every game he's played, and I can't say that about the past few seasons.

    Thanks Russ. I hope you're as big as a bust as Lofa Tatupu, and we all remember that when they put Lofa's name and number up in the Ring of Honor someday.
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    SharkHawk
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  • people hate Mel because he represents one of two things to them:
    1: that their belief that hard work is rewarded and the poor and less fortunate got there because they deserved it is not true. Kiper doesn't do the work. He's just an opinionated blowhard who probably got his job through who he knew because it's obvious he didn't get it through what he knew.

    2: continued proof that America is not a meritocracy but a laizzes faire capitalist system where talent and hard work are usurped by how much money start life with or how much influence you have in getting a job. The effort in how hard you work is not reflected in your financial success. Kiper proves this with every day he goes out there and shows the world he's getting paid for being an expert at something he doesn't know what the heck he's talking about while teachers are vilified for being in unions and firemen get paid peanuts compared to a guy who trots on the field a few times a day and kicks a ball through two polls then goes back to the weight room.

    So people on both sides of the spectrum have reason to hate the guy. And since everyone lives on one side of the spectrum to some degree or the other, nobody really likes him except those who see that no matter how untalented or lazy they are, there's hope they'll be rich or justification for their wealth.
    Richard Sherman doesn't just wanna get in your head, he wants to build a vacation home there.

    R. Sherman: "I don't want to be an island. I want to be a tourist attraction. You come, I take your money & you go."
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    SalishHawkFan
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  • Mel gets paid to be controversial. Meh. Whatever. It makes for good TV. I hope all the Seahawks he panned as picks give him the Lombardi shaped finger.
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    Scottemojo
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  • He didn't get paid to be controversial initially, which is what is interesting about his story. Not much was known about the draft. The NFL decided to televise the thing, and people thought they were crazy. The baseball draft was a huge process, but was done over the phone over the course of days and days because of the literally hundreds of rounds (I think at least half of my high school baseball team got selected... just not me!) haha!.

    But what Kiper's angle was that he was a pioneer in tracking players and grading them. He created this system, and basically was using ESPN to run his informercial for him to get teams, scouts who wanted into the business, and hardcore fans to buy his newsletters and books. He really worked his butt off at it. I'll give him credit. He marketed his stuff like crazy.

    The problem we're seeing now with Mel is that you've got tons of people doing the same thing, and many amateurs who are doing it for free, and are right more often (by a LOT) than Mel.

    The controversy stuff really started and became sort of Mel's shtick that he rightfully ran with and made part of his persona was when he got in a verbal altercation on tv on draft day over the fact that the Colts drafted Trev Alberts instead of Trent Dilfer. He called it a wasted pick, and said that the Colts management was incompetent. Of course there was immediate fireback from the colts GM (was it Polian?) and it was quite entertaining. I think that is when Kiper either became the villain who was saying he was smarter than NFL GM's, or he was the good guy for calling a GM out on passing on a potentially elite QB prospect for a LBer who was seen as a guy that came around about 5 times a draft.

    As it turned out, Dilfer had a much better career, because Alberts got hurt, and I think he was pretty overrated personally and players just as good could have been had later in the draft. The Colts were in the position to get their QBOTF. Hindsight is 20/20 and folks like to blast Kiper for what he said considering that the Colts ended up with Manning 4 years later, but in this one case I think it was an example of Kiper talking about "value" and really making sense. They needed a QB badly, and Dilfer was the best one there, and they passed (no pun intended). There is no reason to think that they made a conscious decision that they knew they were going to get the best QB of all time in 4 years time. They probably should have taken Dilfer and seeing how Dilfer's career started they likely still would have had a shot at Manning, but in general when running a team, you probably should (according to most) go safe with your first round pick.

    Now.... I'm going to give the reverse of this, and that's the Pete and John philosophy, because Ruskell was very much a Kiper-style GM. He went and got the best (meaning safest player). Dilfer was to QB's coming out of the draft what Aaron Curry was for LBers. He was considered a pretty safe pick. He was a strong leader. Had all of the measurables. Had a strong arm. Had played in something very close to an NFL offense at Fresno. Was universally regarded as a guy who would have success..... maybe not the next John Elway, but there were more than a few Marino comparisons. The guy had a quick release, a strong arm, and made good decisions for the most part and got the ball to his playmakers. He wasn't considered a "does very little wrong" type of guy until he was in Baltimore. He was more like a Ryan Leaf fiery team leading winner, without the attitude problems.

    The Seahawks management is so anti-Kiper in the way they do things that I wouldn't expect him to agree with what they do. He is all about getting the best value at each position and not taking unnecessary risks, and typically going with big school guys from the big school conferences, and then snagging a couple of "sleepers" in late rounds with your Marques Colston types, but you never go and snag a guy like that prior to the 4th or 5th round in his mind, because it's not "good value".

    It's just a difference in philosophy. Do I think Kiper could run a draft for a team and field a team that could compete? Probably for a year or two. Same as Ruskell did. Do I think he could do it for an extended period having all of the nuances and importance of redoing contracts a couple of years down the road and making sure you are always having some depth at each position? No. That's not his job. As they said on Dragnet... "Just the facts ma'am" and that's what he does. He provides the 'facts' in a formula that is created based on his opinions of what's valuable. He works hard at it and has kept himself somewhat relevant for a long time and you have to appreciate that. For me personally, he's like the bad guy in wrestling. I tune in and hope he's wrong. I put him right up there with whoever is GM for the Jets and Jerry Jones. I just want to see them look like dummies on draft day. It makes it fun, and ESPN recognizes that and keeps him there.

    Kiper does a lot of work and for that I give him credit. I think his system and general ideas are inherently flawed though, but he came from nowhere just doing his own thing and turned it into a job. Much like you see bloggers we all know getting snapped up and making a career out of it now, Kiper was sort of an early version of that and kudos to him for doing so. I still don't have to like the guy though. ;)
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