A random thought on mediocrity

Tech Worlds":2py4vfxl said:

Dude. You should know by now that I am simply not going to change my tune because you or someone else is depressed by it. Take my unnecessary posts, file them in the garbage where you and many others feel they belong and move on.

Dont put me on ignore though because I kinda have always liked you. :2:

(the think tank thing is out of repect)

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Just leave a pair of UGG slippers in my locker and we're cool.

I know I'm going to get jumped on here. I'm not really the "you are what your record says you are" camp, but the whole "hey, look at my big swinging DVOA" doesn't thrill me either.

Yes, we've lost mostly close games. Yes, we haven't been blown out at all, and have had more road games than home games. Atlanta has also had a ton of close games, the difference is they win them. And I don't think they have really any better talent than we do as a team; better offensive weapons and a QB who is more experience, if not playing better than ours now, and we have the defensive edge still. But, good teams find ways to win. We're not a good team yet. BUT, we're not a bad team. Mediocre. Average. Whatever.

Thing is, to start the season our defense was great, and our offense was still learning. Now, our offense is showing a steady sign of progression from game to game, while the defense is regressing. Good offense....poor defense (lately. take the last 4 games, take out the good games and we're trending downward.....per DVOA). So, one squad is playing well, the other is playing sub-par. Mediocre. Average.

Yup, the Giants won their division last year at 9-7 (at the last game I might add), then went on to win the SB. Difference is, they were raging on all cylinders at the end of the year, while we are trending downwards in certain areas. Look at the DVOA of the teams we've played: we're making poor passing teams look good, good rushing teams look elite, and well the Jets are the Jets. That's a problem...making teams look better against us than they do against, well, everyone else.

OK, so say we can't win a road game, but we'll go perfect at home, right ? And 9-7 may be good enough to get into the playoffs, per English. here's the problem: who says we'll be the 49ers at home ? We have a disturbing trend of getting gashed up the middle of our defense on runs, and the 49ers are trending into a very good groove right now. Everything is working for them, hell their backup QB just went into NO and won a game.....and we just lost to Miami.

Oh, and Tampa Bay and NO scare me. They are hot right now, this is a league that favors offense anyways, and their DVOA is better than ours offensively the last 4-5 games. There, I said it.

MontanaHawk05":1o9kvtyw said:

If you want to talk about our playoff chances, then our record is all that matters. If you want to make sweeping judgments on the abstract quality of this team, its chances in 2013, and the future of its coaches, you'd better be ready to bring more than two numbers into the discussion.

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Well said, Brandon.

The first part of the season we prayed the Defense kept us in it long enough for the Offense to click. Then it seemed they both were on the same page. Now I pray the Offense can sustain a 12 minute drive so the Defense isn't on the field trying to stop the run. I said all along that I would take this season for what it was.

And it has shaped up to be just what we are seeing. But these games are so close and we have so many good players that I too, have gotten caught up in it all and started to expect more! To me, The plan is in it's final stage. If we aren't winning these close games next season, Heads will be called for. Now it seems like we are still a couple, maybe three decent players away from 'being there'

We are easily one of the healthiest teams in the league. Can't expect that every year.

(I don't know what the DVOA for that is called but there must be a metric, for the love of god). Mike Sando did post something just the other day that we are in the top few for guys on IR. I suspect for missed games we are as well.

Lots of reasons we should have a better record.

At this point, Pete Carroll = Dennis Erickson.

SeatownJay":3m9uku25 said:

At this point, Pete Carroll = Dennis Erickson.

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It's a fair comparison. And I think both genders secretly find both men somewhat sexually attractive. Kinda like Robert Redford and Brad Pitt.

I don't understand the your statement lets assume you are what your record says you are.We don't have to assume anything.Thats exactly what we are.6-5. Maybe we are the best 6-5 team in the league but still 6-5.We lost to teams that are barely mediocre and barely beat maybe the worst team in the league in Carolina.
I could care less about strength of schedule, DVOA, how good Wilson looked or 3rd down conversion rates.The only stat that counts is the scoreboard and your record.Wilson looked great but the truth is we scored 14 points and our statistic on D didn't matter when they made Tannehill look all pro when it counts.
This team is young and they will get better when we have a core of players that become leaders and make the plays that pull these kind of games out but right now these players are not doing what it takes to win close games.There is a fine line between good teams and mediocre.Right now we are mediocre.

MontanaHawk05":2n5ofvv1 said:

FlyingGreg":2n5ofvv1 said:

We just can't seem to solve the vexing road issue, for now.

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v1rot1":2n5ofvv1 said:

Based on one win out of 6 attempts we are far below average.

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I still say that these statements make it sound like we're losing by 20 points every road game. The reality is that that this team has played well enough to be literally one play away from a win in every single road game, and frustratingly enough, we just haven't been able to come up with that one play.

That distinction doesn't change our record, and it doesn't improve our chances of making the playoffs, no. I grant that.

But it DOES carry huge implications for predicting the rest of the regular season, for our chances in the playoffs should we make it, for our draft needs this season (Trufant's replacement is already on the roster, folks), and especially for the prospects of Pete Carroll and his coordinators.

If you want to talk about our playoff chances, then our record is all that matters. If you want to make sweeping judgments on the abstract quality of this team, its chances in 2013, and the future of its coaches, you'd better be ready to bring more than two numbers into the discussion.

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Again, it just depends on what you are looking for. Plenty of fans in here seem to be content because we are "losing nicely". That's fine, I guess.

But there are a lot of fans that want real results, not just the trophy for every kid on the team analogy.

I fear a lot of fans have been lulled into acceptance of the middle of the road. If you look at the history of our team, we are historically heavily weighted in the 7-9 to 9-7 range. It's ok to want more.

I think it boils down to us as individuals more than anything, and it's not something that is easily changed or manipulated based on internet posts. We all get that, I think. It's like arguing politics - futile. There's good points on both sides of the street and I see why people are on either side. Some people have the patience to embrace the small steps and positive outlook for the future, others are just tired of playing the "just the tip" game and want to ram it home.

FlyingGreg":2tnfrc1l said:

Again, it just depends on what you are looking for. Plenty of fans in here seem to be content because we are "losing nicely". That's fine, I guess.

But there are a lot of fans that want real results, not just the trophy for every kid on the team analogy.

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No, that's not the issue at all. No one is content with "losing nicely" or perennially being middle of the pack. Some people just realize that there are many, many tools that are better than W-L for predictive analysis, and there is a mountain of evidence to suggest that the Seahawks are better than an average team as 6-5 would suggest. It would be foolish to give up on the season, as many on this board (not you) seem to be doing, when we are currently in a playoff position, are a better team than those we are tied with, and have a softer remaining schedule than those teams we are tied with.

Very good and informative read to the OP. The road woes for the Seahawks though is nothing new. It has been a problem for the last couple years now. If there is any silver lining in all this is that your offence has been playing well on road games (something that was lacking last year). It's just been the defence that has let games slip away in the final quarter this year on the road.

I don't get to see alot of Seahawks game indepth since my allegiance is to another team but the games I have seen of the Hawks on the road is their inability to adjust in the second half when the opposing offence changes things up.


I am hoping you guys are able to improve on this. It's big plus for our division to have meaningful games in December between NFCW teams competeing for playoff contention. Your not out of it yet but you got to get it done against the Bears. WHY? Because I'm taking you guys to beat the Bears on my Parlay :mrgreen:

The Bears are a wounded team losing 6 starters including Briggs (ankle), Forte (ankle), Tillman (ankle) and Hester (concussion). Those are impact players. Though hearing about a possible suspension of BOTH of your corners is disheartening. Is that suspension official and has it been confirmed?

jewhawk":1nontov2 said:

FlyingGreg":1nontov2 said:

Again, it just depends on what you are looking for. Plenty of fans in here seem to be content because we are "losing nicely". That's fine, I guess.

But there are a lot of fans that want real results, not just the trophy for every kid on the team analogy.

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No, that's not the issue at all. No one is content with "losing nicely" or perennially being middle of the pack. Some people just realize that there are many, many tools that are better than W-L for predictive analysis, and there is a mountain of evidence to suggest that the Seahawks are better than an average team as 6-5 would suggest. It would be foolish to give up on the season, as many on this board (not you) seem to be doing, when we are currently in a playoff position, are a better team than those we are tied with, and have a softer remaining schedule than those teams we are tied with.

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Understood...but again, that's nothing tangible - it's a placebo and wishful thinking. That's my point. Why all of a sudden are they going to fix the things we keep seeing (no pass rush, not forcing turnovers, porous run defense, etc.) on the road? Because we have a high DVOA? That doesn't make sense.

We can't keep losing games we should win and expect to make the playoffs. We are in a good spot, but our margin of error is razor thin now and I think that's what evokes the passion. Beating Chicago this week would be a major, major boost.

And again, the "mountain of evidence" means exactly squat as compared to wins.

I wish DVOA played nose guard then our run defense would rule!

Tech Worlds":20vremv7 said:

I wish DVOA played nose guard then our run defense would rule!

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I wish our DVOA could get off the field on 3rd down, get sacks and force turnovers!

I like you a lot Kearly. I always look forward to your "trademarked" random thoughts. You state your points in a most elequent manor, and you are obviously a talented writer. That said I disagree with this post. You're putting far too much weight on DVOA performance, football is harder to quantify by numbers than say baseball. My are eyes telling me that the Seahawks are a mediocre football team at this point in time. This season has been very weird, at any given time the Seahawks can hang with the best of teams. We beat some of the best teams in the NFL, however we have also lost to some of the NFL's most underwelming teams. This team has no consistancy, and we make too many mistakes and mental lapses to be considered a good team at this moment both in coaching and play. We are a talented team, no doubt about that -- but right now our play is not running congruent to that talent level.

Atlanta has a much more experienced roster that has played together and built team chemistry. They have one rookie on their entire 53-man roster. They've had the same head coach for five or six years. Their QB is in year 5.

Seattle is the 3rd or 4th youngest team in the NFL. The Hawks have 5 rookies I can think of who are starting or seeing significant playing time--including the QB and Mike LB. Other key players are in just their second or third year in the NFL. It's our head coach's third year, and he and his GM have had to completely rebuild the roster.

In spite of all that inexperience--both as individuals and a team--the Seahawks have been in every game this season. They have yet to lose by more than 7 points.

Are some of the issues on the coaching staff? Yep. But we are also seeing the type of growing pains typical for a young team. The team is on the verge, but we are going to have to be patient a little while longer.

MontanaHawk05":3ljk347j said:

FlyingGreg":3ljk347j said:

We just can't seem to solve the vexing road issue, for now.

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v1rot1":3ljk347j said:

Based on one win out of 6 attempts we are far below average.

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I still say that these statements make it sound like we're losing by 20 points every road game. The reality is that that this team has played well enough to be literally one play away from a win in every single road game, and frustratingly enough, we just haven't been able to come up with that one play.

That distinction doesn't change our record, and it doesn't improve our chances of making the playoffs, no. I grant that.

But it DOES carry huge implications for predicting the rest of the regular season, for our chances in the playoffs should we make it, for our draft needs this season (Trufant's replacement is already on the roster, folks), and especially for the prospects of Pete Carroll and his coordinators.

If you want to talk about our playoff chances, then our record is all that matters. If you want to make sweeping judgments on the abstract quality of this team, its chances in 2013, and the future of its coaches, you'd better be ready to bring more than two numbers into the discussion.

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Nice post. We are much better off than we were 3-4 years ago. Yes people can come with the wins and losses are all that matters argument ,
and in the ultimate end it does. Yet I'm encouraged that we aren't losing by embarrasing margins. We're almost there.

FlyingGreg":19nw2cbs said:

Understood...but again, that's nothing tangible - it's a placebo and wishful thinking. That's my point. Why all of a sudden are they going to fix the things we keep seeing (no pass rush, not forcing turnovers, porous run defense, etc.) on the road? Because we have a high DVOA? That doesn't make sense.

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You're overstating those road issues because we lost the games. Our defense has forced 10 turnovers in 6 road games compared to 9 turnovers in 5 home games. It has allowed 108 rushing yards per game on the road compared to 109.4 rushing yards per game at home. We have 17 sacks in 5 home games compared to 12 sacks in 6 road games, but those numbers are skewed by the incredible performance against the Packers. The team really hasn't performed at a much lower level on the road compared to at home. It just seems that way because of the W-L columns.

FlyingGreg":19nw2cbs said:

We can't keep losing games we should win and expect to make the playoffs. We are in a good spot, but our margin of error is razor thin now and I think that's what evokes the passion. Beating Chicago this week would be a major, major boost.

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You're right about that. It sucks that we have lost so many games we were in a position to win, but losing those games is not an indication that we will lose similar games in the future. How we performed in those games is a better indicator of what to predict for the future.

FlyingGreg":19nw2cbs said:

And again, the "mountain of evidence" means exactly squat as compared to wins.

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When it comes to predicting what will happen the rest of the season, it means a lot more.

FlyingGreg":19nw2cbs said:

Tech Worlds":19nw2cbs said:

I wish DVOA played nose guard then our run defense would rule!

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I wish our DVOA could get off the field on 3rd down, get sacks and force turnovers!

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It isn't just DVOA that ranks the Seahawks as a better than average team. Advanced NFL Stats Team Efficiency rankings (through week 11) had us at #4, Sagarin ratings have us at #10, Point differential has us at #11 despite one of the league's toughest schedules. There isn't a statistical model out there that considers the Seahawks an average or worse team.

That's all great info...but NONE of it gets us to the promised land. The NFL playoffs are based solely on wins and losses. Are we going to fly a "DVOA Champions" banner at C Link next season, even if we finish 8-8??

:mrgreen:

I'm optimistic for the future...just not sure when the future will arrive. There's a lot to fix with this team when we play on the road. Facts are facts, we are 1-5 away from C Link. Period. No points for style or progress, as far as tangible results go.

Of course -- we are a better team and improving. No question. I'm just not sold that we are going to find our way this season, necessarily.

We'll see.

FlyingGreg":2c4qrh36 said:

That's all great info...but NONE of it gets us to the promised land. The NFL playoffs are based solely on wins and losses. Are we going to fly a "DVOA Champions" banner at C Link next season, even if we finish 8-8??

:mrgreen:

I'm optimistic for the future...just not sure when the future will arrive. There's a lot to fix with this team when we play on the road. Facts are facts, we are 1-5 away from C Link. Period. No points for style or progress, as far as tangible results go.

Of course -- we are a better team and improving. No question. I'm just not sold that we are going to find our way this season, necessarily.

We'll see.

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Good God do you not understand what they're saying?

No, DVOA doesn't change the record. That's not what they're saying. What they, and the numbers, say is that according to basically all stats out there, chances are we WON'T go 8-8, and that we've played more like a 7-4, 8-3 team rather than a 6-5. The NFL Playoffs are based on W/L, you're correct, and nobody is disputing that. DVOA, Sagarin, etc. are all just useful tools to project future success based on past performance, and they're much more reliable than going simply off W/L.