Lynch vs. Alexander

kearly · Dec 14, 2012

A fun fact for everyone who thinks Shaun's line was way better than Lynch's current one:

Football Outsiders rankings:

Seahawks 2012 run blocking: 3rd... (4.50 adjusted line yards)
Seahawks 2005 run blocking: 6th... (4.42 adjusted line yards)

Seahawks 2012 pass blocking: 16th... (6.2% adjusted sack rate)
Seahawks 2005 pass blocking: 13th... (5.9% adjusted line yards)

That's surprisingly close, and Lynch has actually had better push up front so far than even Shaun did in 2005. It's worth noting that our current line is penalized waaaaaay more and that doesn't factor into these metrics. Additionally, Wilson is harder to sack than Hasselbeck is. But still, our current line is pretty damn under-rated.

As said before, both Lynch and Shaun were very different backs when Seattle's line sucked from 2006-2010. Both have needed good blocking to produce.

hawker84 · Dec 14, 2012

i appreciate both.. love what beast mode is doing, loved alexander until his last year.... if i had to choose either ( in their prime ) i would have to say alexander, better runner, had a nose for the endzone, and his running style was a thing of beauty. to be honest i can't believe curt warner is not in this discussion.. i think he was better than both..

ParisPC07 · Dec 14, 2012

This is like asking me to pick between my mom and my dad.

FargoHawk · Dec 14, 2012

Lynch 100%

The guy fights for EVERY yard! The fact that Tobeck said he would rather see Lynch in the backfield should say something.

TDOTSEAHAWK · Dec 14, 2012

I would have to say Lynch. Lynch hasn't even hit his prime and we are having this conversation. 2-3 more good years and he will will basically reach all of SA's career marks. For comparison - Shaun's best seasons were at age 27 and 28 and Lynch is still only 26 with a better resume to that point.

SA had such a ridiculous peak that it is hard to remember his play clearly. But from my eyes and memory - down to down - it is Lynch without a doubt. I don't think he has taken a carry off since becoming a Seahawk.

ImTheScientist · Dec 14, 2012

Lynch all day. Alexander did what he did because of the offensive line, Lynch does what he does on effort.

Largent80 · Dec 14, 2012

I loved Shauns elusiveness but I love Lynchs toughness a LOT more.

bmorepunk · Dec 14, 2012

kearly":3h01t525 said:
A fun fact for everyone who thinks Shaun's line was way better than Lynch's current one:

Football Outsiders rankings:

Seahawks 2012 run blocking: 3rd... (4.50 adjusted line yards)
Seahawks 2005 run blocking: 6th... (4.42 adjusted line yards)

Seahawks 2012 pass blocking: 16th... (6.2% adjusted sack rate)
Seahawks 2005 pass blocking: 13th... (5.9% adjusted line yards)

That's surprisingly close, and Lynch has actually had better push up front so far than even Shaun did in 2005. It's worth noting that our current line is penalized waaaaaay more and that doesn't factor into these metrics. Additionally, Wilson is harder to sack than Hasselbeck is. But still, our current line is pretty damn under-rated.

As said before, both Lynch and Shaun were very different backs when Seattle's line sucked from 2006-2010. Both have needed good blocking to produce.

I went and looked at the ratings to figure out what they mean. The reason the 2005 line isn't ranked higher than 6th is because they had relatively high stuff percentage.

The run blocking difference between now and seven years ago has some qualifiers. Power running (and a decent run game in general) still existed for quite a few teams then; fewer teams do it now. This team has an emphasis on running the ball which is unusual in the league right now.

This is also one of those "see it with my eyes" instead of looking at numbers deals. The numbers don't account for the absolute destruction I witnessed Jones and Hutchinson consistently lay down (those other three guys did a pretty good job too). I don't think this is a bad line now, but Lynch and Wilson seemingly bail them out when they get into trouble. They definitely seem to be getting better over time as a group, and are certainly getting good mileage out of the available talent.

Seahawk Sailor · Dec 14, 2012

Yep, tough call. Very tough, not only because they are two completely differently styled runners, but because they're both very good.

Have to give the edge to 2005 Alexander. His fluidity and speed got him a lot of yards and touchdowns. He had that little extra burst where he didn't have to bull rush through eleven other guys to get the yardage. Lynch hesitates sometimes too much, which irks me a little during games. It's not bad, but just enough sometimes to make me feel he could get a lot more yardage without the little shimmy step before plowing into a hole. Dunno, maybe I'm seeing things, and Alexander did the same thing, but I feel it's a slight weakness.

And remember when Alexander had that streak of games with at least one 10+ yardage play? That's an NFL record still, if I remember correctly, and stands at what, 70, maybe 80 games? Something tells me 2005 Shaun Alexander would be leading the league in rushing, even with this offensive line. There are holes and openings being made, and he'd find them.

Galen96 · Dec 14, 2012

There are so many people with selective memory here... I hate with Alexander is brought up, because people keep revising history to make their argument correct..

Fact is, Shaun WAS the team. He was the best back in football at the time, and we ran at will on ANYONE, ANYTIME, ANYWHERE. He could brush off tackles as good as anyone, and had an amazing 5th gear. If it weren't for injuries after 05, he would be sniffing Canton.

Don't get me wrong... I love lynch, but SA was beast and did some amazing things to get to the endzone.

Sarlacc83 · Dec 14, 2012

Let's see, league MVP with the (then) record of 28 TDs or a bullrusher Beastmode. I love Lynch, I love his style of play, but I'm going with the speed and the numbers. Alexander had better vision, and I think people forget that inside the 20s, Alexander had an extra physicality (which we all wish we would have seen outside the 20s, but I digress).

That said, I don't think there's a wrong answer to the question.

Scottemojo · Dec 14, 2012

kearly":2wr175kw said:
A fun fact for everyone who thinks Shaun's line was way better than Lynch's current one:

Football Outsiders rankings:

Seahawks 2012 run blocking: 3rd... (4.50 adjusted line yards)
Seahawks 2005 run blocking: 6th... (4.42 adjusted line yards)

Seahawks 2012 pass blocking: 16th... (6.2% adjusted sack rate)
Seahawks 2005 pass blocking: 13th... (5.9% adjusted line yards)

That's surprisingly close, and Lynch has actually had better push up front so far than even Shaun did in 2005. It's worth noting that our current line is penalized waaaaaay more and that doesn't factor into these metrics. Additionally, Wilson is harder to sack than Hasselbeck is. But still, our current line is pretty damn under-rated.

As said before, both Lynch and Shaun were very different backs when Seattle's line sucked from 2006-2010. Both have needed good blocking to produce.

I am very curious to know if this ranking accounts for all the yards Lynch gets after contact. If it doesn't, then it really doesn't make a statement about the line.

bmorepunk · Dec 14, 2012

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
Losses: 120% value
0-4 Yards: 100% value
5-10 Yards: 50% value
11+ Yards: 0% value
These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry. These stats are explained further here.
The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:
RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team's running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.
Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).
Second Level Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.
Open Field Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.

jkitsune · Dec 14, 2012

kearly":3a16zrko said:
I think Shaun is the better RB, but it depends on what you want. If you want production, it's a young Shaun hands down. If you want consistency run for run, it's Lynch. A typical game for Shaun would be a lot of 2 yard gains with a few huge runs to raise his average. That said, yards are yards, and in-his-prime Shaun was great in short yardage situations. He was killer on screens too. When was the last time Lynch took a screen 80 yards to the house like Shaun used to?

For this offense though, it's hard to argue against Lynch. He brings consistency on every run which really helps Seattle's station to station ball control styled offense. That said, there are plays in every game where I see Lynch get 15 yards and think a young Alexander would have busted a long one for a score in the same situation, but on the other hand we'd have a lot more 3 and outs with Alexander. I think both RBs were well suited for the Seahawks eras that they played in.

Nice post. It really is hard to choose. I voted SA on the basis of his overall production, his ability to find the end zone anywhere within the 20 yard line, etc. People only remember the last couple inglorious years of Shaun's career, but he really wasn't that easy to tackle when he was young. He was never a monster up the middle in the same way that Lynch is, but he also didn't forget how to break tackles until late in his career.

I also think we use play-action more effectively in this offense than we ever did with Holmgren. Holmgren's WCO was effective, especially in a couple of magical years, but I get the impression defenses are left guessing more these days, which makes both aspects of the offense more effective.

Anyhow, I think SA in his prime was a better runner than Lynch is right now. But it's not really an easy choice, and if Lynch keeps this up it could change my mind.

Hawkfan77 · Dec 14, 2012

Why does it seem that most people voting in this poll are newer fans who came along during the SB run and remember SA during his years of decline?

I take Alexander hands down. I love BeastMode, but come on, this is SA by a mile. The guy won an MVP award! And for everyone talking about the line and how anyone could put up his numbers with that OL just stop. I'm not arguing that we didn't have a stud OL and the best in team history, but SA did what he did for years straight, it wasn't just his record breaking year.

I've honestly never seen a RB with SA's ability to get into the endzone, he was a special player for sure. And yes he actually did run hard. For those of us that watched him for his entire career, his "soft playing style" has been greatly over exaggerated. Did he seek out contact anywhere close to the level of Lynch? No, well he did if it meant scoring 6 points and I think that's why he gets a bad rap in Seattle. Only in this city will a player of close to HOF stature get bagged on by fans because of their "style of play."

Love them both and like Kearly said, they are two completely different runners, but it's SA>BM

jkitsune · Dec 14, 2012

Hawkfan77":3v5wre6g said:
Why does it seem that most people voting in this poll are newer fans who came along during the SB run and remember SA during his years of decline?

I take Alexander hands down. I love BeastMode, but come on, this is SA by a mile. The guy won an MVP award! And for everyone talking about the line and how anyone could put up his numbers with that OL just stop. I'm not arguing that we didn't have a stud OL and the best in team history, but SA did what he did for years straight, it wasn't just his record breaking year.

I've honestly never seen a RB with SA's ability to get into the endzone, he was a special player for sure. And yes he actually did run hard. For those of us that watched him for his entire career, his "soft playing style" has been greatly over exaggerated. Did he seek out contact anywhere close to the level of Lynch? No, well he did if it meant scoring 6 points and I think that's why he gets a bad rap in Seattle. Only in this city will a player of close to HOF stature get bagged on by fans because of their "style of play."

Love them both and like Kearly said, they are two completely different runners, but it's SA>BM

Great post. SA's memory has been tainted by frustration after a lost super bowl, hutchinson leaving, the team hitting its decline, and multiple injuries. That opened the door for a small cadre of people who NEVER liked his style to dominate the conversation.

But that dude was a special runner from 2001-2006, and unlike 2004-2005, the Oline in 2001-2004 SUCKED.

It's also hard to ask these questions about Seahawks legends - imagine if we had a stud wideout and people were asking if he was better than Largent? Not saying it can't be a legitimate question, but for me it's always too tainted with emotion to answer objectively.

volsunghawk · Dec 14, 2012

Hawkfan77":2figixm6 said:
Why does it seem that most people voting in this poll are newer fans who came along during the SB run and remember SA during his years of decline?

I take Alexander hands down. I love BeastMode, but come on, this is SA by a mile. The guy won an MVP award! And for everyone talking about the line and how anyone could put up his numbers with that OL just stop. I'm not arguing that we didn't have a stud OL and the best in team history, but SA did what he did for years straight, it wasn't just his record breaking year.

For the record, not all of us are newer fans. We just happen to disagree with you.

Our O-line didn't just materialize out of nowhere in 2005. The Jones-Hutch-Tobeck-Gray combo had been together since 2001, which was Alexander's sophomore season. Hutch was injured in 2002 for 12 games, but by 2003, he and Jones were both Pro Bowl regulars.

Now look at Alexander's impressive numbers. They take off when he takes over for Watters in 2001, dip a little in 2002, and then improve consistently from 2003-2005. All of that happens in tandem with a solid LT-LG-C-RG combo, and the dip coincides with the one season in that stretch where part of the line had to be shuffled due to injury.

That consistency along the bulk of the O-line (and especially the interior of the O-line) is absolutely VITAL to a team's run game, and it's something we've never had during Lynch's time with the team.

And I want to make clear that my choice doesn't hinge on thinking Alexander was soft, or that he was in any way something other than an elite RB. The question was which back in his prime would we want for a SB run right now. And I think with the shuffling we've had to do on our line this season, Lynch is the better choice. He obviously isn't the same home run threat that Alexander was, but he's more consistent in getting positive yardage. The way our team plays right now, I think that's hugely important.

Missing_Clink · Dec 14, 2012

Lynch for me. My favorite thing about him is the fact that he got paid this offseason, and turns around, plays hurt, and has his best year in the NFL. There is no debate that when it comes to heart, Lynch is tops.

Sgt. Largent · Dec 14, 2012

Hawkfan77":3a847wyq said:
Why does it seem that most people voting in this poll are newer fans who came along during the SB run and remember SA during his years of decline?

I take Alexander hands down. I love BeastMode, but come on, this is SA by a mile. The guy won an MVP award! And for everyone talking about the line and how anyone could put up his numbers with that OL just stop. I'm not arguing that we didn't have a stud OL and the best in team history, but SA did what he did for years straight, it wasn't just his record breaking year.

I've honestly never seen a RB with SA's ability to get into the endzone, he was a special player for sure. And yes he actually did run hard. For those of us that watched him for his entire career, his "soft playing style" has been greatly over exaggerated. Did he seek out contact anywhere close to the level of Lynch? No, well he did if it meant scoring 6 points and I think that's why he gets a bad rap in Seattle. Only in this city will a player of close to HOF stature get bagged on by fans because of their "style of play."

Love them both and like Kearly said, they are two completely different runners, but it's SA>BM

Alexander was a talented runner, but I'd take Lynch seven days a week over Alexander. SA was a product of one of the best offensive lines in football for a good 5-6 years, with two potential HOF lineman (Jones/Hutch).

The barometer is easy, how would each runner fare with the other's offense? Lynch would run for 2,000 yards every year with the line SA ran behind. If SA had to run behind this line? He'd be lucky to crack 1,000 yards, because Alexander didn't run through contact, he avoided it.

SEC FAN · Dec 14, 2012

LawHawk":2tye7jyq said:
I'm surprised the vote is so lopsided. Until this year I would have said 37. This year I changed my mind. Alexander was fantastic, no doubt about it. But Lynch is about 5% more physically gifted and plays about 75% harder so I'm going with Lynch.

Robbie Tobeck was asked this on Brock & Salk this week and he did not hesitate at all, he said Lynch. It wasn't exactly "Who is the better player" it was more like "What would your line have done with Marshawn Lynch" and from his answer it was totally clear that he thinks Lynch is the better player.

I appreciate you mentioning the Brock and Salk discussion. I went and listened to the podcast and I'm glad to hear them say what I believe. Interesting comments by Tobeck and Terrill.

"Lynch would have ran for over 2,000 yards (in 2005). Type of runner that gets other guys fired up and makes you want to work harder for him"....Tobeck

"You can't ever replace a running back like Marshawn Lynch. Having to prepare for him is almost impossible. He's a guy that one guy just can't tackle, he'll run you over"...Terrill

Lynch vs. Alexander

Better Running Back

Shaun Alexnader

Marsahwn Lynch

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