Why I think we will lose this game

AF_Hawk

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I don't think so, at least IMO. I don't think a lack of pass rush will be the deciding factor in this game as it hasn't been for the majority of games all season it seems. Even in the GB game we barely won even though we sacked AR 8 times!
 

CANHawk

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formido":2mf20f2h said:
Clemons being out doesn't mean we're going to field 10 guys. Someone else will be on the field to take his place. Last week, we seemed to do just pretty darn dandy with Clemons out. Worst case scenario is a marginal reduction in some aspects of defensive efficiency. Best case, and not at all unlikely, fresh legs and fresh personnel groupings reveals exciting new unprepared for advantages.

Y'know, I think the argument can be made pretty easily that Clem's production over the last few years has been as much a result of the scheme as it is a result of the talent of Chris Clemons. I absolutely love the dude and respect the hell out of what he brings, but if Clem is such an amazing talent and an unreplaceable piece of the puzzle that we're doomed without him, where was his production in all the years he was in the NFL prior to becoming the Leo DE in Pete Carroll's 4-3 under defense?

Now we spent a 1st round draft pick on Bruce Irvin because he has all the tools required to play the Leo DE in Pete Carroll's 4-3 under defense. I'm willing to bet that pass rush production from the Leo side of the field won't go down. I'm a little worried about production from the "Raheem Brock" side of the field now that we're going to be relying on Greg Scruggs and a 33 year old workout warrior who hasn't played in 4 years. Scruggs can bring it, but to the same level that Irvin did over there? <shrug> I don't know, but I don't think it will be as big a let down as many are thinking.

Thanks for the pep talk Formido. I've decided that I am no longer worried about our ability to apply pressure to Matt Ryan or the loss of Chris Clemons. the only place where I think Clem is clearly better than Irvin is in run support, but Atlanta sucks at running the ball anyway so I'm not going to worry about it...
 

MontanaHawk05

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theENGLISHseahawk":12flsr87 said:
Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.

I don't agree that he's one of the best pass rushers in the league. He gets sacks, but not consistent pressure. Otherwise we wouldn't be sitting around talking about "no pass rush". Clemons is very hot and cold from play to play and generally our opponents have been unhurried.
 

Hasselbeck

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Falcan Moore":168zo5j0 said:
You simply have to get pressure on Ryan without the blitz. I don't have the stats on me, but I know this year he's had something like a 96.1 rating against the blitz. I'm actually curious as to how good he's been in years past, too.

Yep. I noticed in that game against New Orleans (will watch the Carolina one later), that the times the Saints were able to generate pressure with just 3-4 guys.. Ryan was pressed into making some tough decisions, and that's when he indeed made mistakes. They were few and far between that game, but they did happen..

Meanwhile when the Saints blitzed, it wasn't pretty. Ryan killed them.

Now I will say our personnel is light years better than New Orleans.. but I think Atlanta will actually prefer we blitz.
 

CANHawk

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MontanaHawk05":3urgat50 said:
theENGLISHseahawk":3urgat50 said:
Because my argument for that being an issue is he's the only player in our base defense who can get to the passer and with +30 sacks in the last three seasons, he's clearly one of the best pass rushers in the league. I'm not sure how you overrate losing a guy like that for a big playoff game.

I don't agree that he's one of the best pass rushers in the league. He gets sacks, but not consistent pressure. Otherwise we wouldn't be sitting around talking about "no pass rush". Clemons is very hot and cold from play to play and generally our opponents have been unhurried. Don't ask me how we've managed the #1 scoring defense against one of the toughest schedules without a pass rush, because I haven't figured out how yet.

I think our secondary, honestly, pressures QB's more than anyone else.

Word. I have noticed a lot of qb's either throwing it into the 2nd row or dumping it off to a checkdown for minimal gain against our secondary. I'm not super confident in being able to contain the dynamic trio over there long enough to get sacks, but hopefully we can hold them long enough for Ryan to give up on plays and get rid of the rock.

I like this thread. I went from being so bunged up about our lack of pass rush that I was ready to sell out what we do well for cockameme blitzes from the bandit to saying "meh, we got this".

Thanks English!
 

MontanaHawk05

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formido":1ec9sll5 said:
#1 scoring defense in the NFL. Never had a pass rush. Don't need one. Still #1. Not an illusion. Not a mystery. #1.

I think everyone's well aware of that. But you're not really providing anything but vague platitudes as to how Seattle is defying conventional wisdom this way.

It's not like we went undefeated. Our 11-5 was a razor's edge. We faced some very bad quarterbacks (Sanchez, Ponder, Newton, Arizona) who didn't need to be pressured in order to suck, we faced some defensive-oriented teams (Rams, 49ers), and while we also beat some very good QB's, we either barely beat them because of no pass rush (Brady), lost to them because of no pass rush (Stafford), or beat them WITH PASS RUSH (Rodgers). Not to mention Jason Jones providing interior pressure all year.

I'm scratching my head as to how Seattle accomplished the #1 defense without pass rush, but I'm not so quick to just throw one of the cornerstones of modern NFL defenses to the wind unless I get some better analysis as to why.
 

seahawk2k

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Interesting thread, and I definitely share the OP's concerns.

I think its important to note that pressure doesn't always constitute sacks. I feel like they can scheme some pressure, because all you really need is to get Matt Ryan fading back a little in the pocket and make him uncomfortable. Qb's hate guys around their feet.

I've got my doubts about how well Irvin can hold up and wouldn't be surprised if Scruggs was in there on running downs and Irvin on passing downs.

I wouldn't be surprised if we got thumped by a couple touchdowns, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we thumped them by a couple touchdowns.

Mike Smith reminds me of Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Cowher(until 2005), both of those coaches tightened up to a maddening degree in the playoffs and it reflected in playcalling and the psyche of their teams. When they gambled, it was often needless(Mike Smith last year against the Giants). I'm interested to see how the Falcons come out, I wouldn't be surprised if they started the game firing the ball downfield to try and get up early rather than do what they should do and attack us on the edges with the running game.

Its also important to note that when the Seahawks have brought pressure this year, those rare times, its been very successful. For a team that doesn't blitz much, they time and disguise it tremendously. I'd expect to see more blitzes, not an excessive amount, but enough to make Matt Ryan second guess his pre snap read. Against the Seahawks secondary, that's all that needs to happen. Make Ryan think twice, make him hesitate, make him uncomfortable and we can hold our own in the passing game.

Regardless of what happens, I've enjoyed the hell out of this team this year.
 

Largent80

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theENGLISHseahawk":dwcfxpj6 said:
Not being overly negative here... I think we've had a fantastic season. I think we'll come back even stronger next year and if we avoid injuries, could well have a rematch against the Falcons only this time we have the home field advantage. The Seahawks are going in absolutely the right direction, I just think we'll come up short against a #1 seed, 13-3 team on the road. The reason...?

LACK OF PRESSURE ON MATT RYAN

I think we'll struggle, once again, to get pressure in base defense. I watched the Cardinals @ Falcons game and the one thing (only thing?) Arizona does well is pass rush. It amazes me that Ray Horton hasn't got the Cards' Head Coach gig simply to keep him as part of that franchise. They got at Ryan and forced mistakes. He's not too mobile, he likes to have time. Give him that time and he'll kill you - especially with the options he has at WR/TE. He threw FIVE interceptions against Arizona and scored no touchdowns. They scraped to victory 23-19 despite Arizona having 70 total passing yards in that game. The reason? Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush.

Unfortunately, we are nowhere near as effective rushing the passer. Our base defense generates almost no pressure at all and we don't blitz. Carroll and Bradley have barely blitzed all year and they aren't going to start now against a QB like Ryan. They'll be scared of getting burned - any coaching staff would have that fear blitzing Ryan with those receivers. I suspect it might be a case of 'which way are we least likely to get beat?' and they'll try and play bend but don't break. We've played some of the worst offensive lines in the NFL this year and dominated only once (vs Green Bay). Now we're going to try and dominate a decent enough line without our best pass rusher. That'll be very difficult.

Chris Clemons is a huge miss and although I like Bruce Irvin and believe he will grow into the NFL, I don't think is the game for him. Atlanta is really going to test his ability to defend the run early I fear, and if he struggles I think we'll see Scruggs playing more and more snaps as the game goes on. If we end up fielding a four man line of Bryant, Mebane, Branch and Scruggs more often than not - I don't like our chances of getting pressure on Ryan. Our best chance to do so might be to maybe lean to that side and put more pressure on Bryant to hold up his side of the bargain. We need to be in a position to keep Irvin on the field and he has to make the most of his chances.

I trust Russell Wilson and our offense to score points too and I don't think it's impossible for us to win a shoot-out. But that's the type of game I think it'll be, and it's not the type that suits us the best. Ryan is going to get time back there and however good Sherman/Browner and the other DB's are, they can't cover Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez forever while Ryan sits in a clean pocket. I expect all three of their key playmakers, plus Ryan, to have a big day.

When Atlanta's lost playoff games in the past - Ryan has been pressured. New York last year, he had no time. Green Bay before that, the same. Against us I'm worried that won't be the case. So it'll be up to our offense to answer every call. It'll be up to the defense to see if they can bend but not break (tough vs Gonzalez in the red zone). But ultimately I think there's going to come a time in the second half where they edge ahead and pull away - something like 34-20 in the end.

Maybe the pressure on Ryan/Smith takes its toll? I just think this Falcons team is too good to keep bottling it. 0-4 in the playoffs? That would be some accomplishment given how talented they are. They'll be right on this one and if we're going to beat them, we'll have to do it with equally brilliant offense. I'd love Wilson to do it but I'm not expecting even he to do that.

Hope I'm completely wrong. I will happily eat crow if I am. I won't boast if I'm right. I want us desperately to win this game. But our biggest off-season priority has to be finding a better pass rush in base defense. If we get that in 2014, we have a shot at going 13-3 ourselves.

You do realize you said we would lose against Washington don't you? You are wrong again.
 
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theENGLISHseahawk

theENGLISHseahawk

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MontanaHawk05":3ond50o4 said:
I don't agree that he's one of the best pass rushers in the league. He gets sacks, but not consistent pressure. Otherwise we wouldn't be sitting around talking about "no pass rush". Clemons is very hot and cold from play to play and generally our opponents have been unhurried.

I bet there's not another pass rusher in the NFL with +30 sacks over the last three years playing as the sole pass rusher in a four man base front.

How many other productive pass rushers play in a four man front with guys like Bryant, Mebane and Branch? Bryant - 0 sacks in 2012. Branch - 1 sack in 2012. Mebane - 3 sacks in 2012.
 

Tech Worlds

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I am sure Pete Carroll shares the same concerns as you do and will understand the need to pressure Ryan. With Clemons out I dont think Pete will wait long to bring extra guys to compensate for his loss.

We win
 

MontanaHawk05

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I hope so, but my observation is that Pete feels he'll get more turnovers from dropping linebackers into coverage than from blitzing them.
 

Dirty Bird

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It doesn't help that Marshawn Lynch missed practice for the second day in a row.
 

RolandDeschain

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MontanaHawk05":2j3fpesc said:
I'm scratching my head as to how Seattle accomplished the #1 defense without pass rush, but I'm not so quick to just throw one of the cornerstones of modern NFL defenses to the wind unless I get some better analysis as to why.

Isn't it obvious? I don't mean that in a sniping or smartassy way. Honest. Our D-line is good, but not elite. Same with the linebackers, though they are improving and we might consider it an elite unit next year. Secondary, on the other...Elite.
 
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theENGLISHseahawk

theENGLISHseahawk

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Dirty Bird":161l5c0o said:
It doesn't help that Marshawn Lynch missed practice for the second day in a row.

That's a none issue. He's taken many days off during the week this year to keep him fresh. This is just another example of that. It's already been discussed as such.
 

MontanaHawk05

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RolandDeschain":2atug2hx said:
MontanaHawk05":2atug2hx said:
I'm scratching my head as to how Seattle accomplished the #1 defense without pass rush, but I'm not so quick to just throw one of the cornerstones of modern NFL defenses to the wind unless I get some better analysis as to why.

Isn't it obvious? I don't mean that in a sniping or smartassy way. Honest. Our D-line is good, but not elite. Same with the linebackers, though they are improving and we might consider it an elite unit next year. Secondary, on the other...Elite.

Well, the paradigm has always been that good QB's will find windows against any secondary if they're given long enough. (Russell Wilson has taken that paradigm and shoved it into overdrive this year.) Given Kam and Browner's susceptibilities...I dunno. Maybe a secondary scheme can substitute for pass rush? I just wish I had X's and O's on it.
 

RolandDeschain

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MontanaHawk05":2med8qn1 said:
Well, the paradigm has always been that good QB's will find windows against any secondary if they're given long enough. (Russell Wilson has taken that paradigm and shoved it into overdrive this year.) Given Kam and Browner's susceptibilities...I dunno. Maybe a secondary scheme can substitute for pass rush? I just wish I had X's and O's on it.

That has definitely been the thinking for as long as I can remember. Seems like we might be inventing a new way of thinking, though. I'd love to see one of the geniuses at Football Outsiders or one of our resident Xs & Os gurus break it down somehow.
 

Riley12

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Dirty Bird":2c5zjy6y said:
It doesn't help that Marshawn Lynch missed practice for the second day in a row.

That's been par for the course this season. There's no reason to expect you to know that, however.

Back to the OP. I've only watched Redskins game three times now and I haven't noticed any drop off in pressure
when Clemons came out. As other have noted, the pressure actually seemed to increase. Griffin's lack of mobility
was a factor, the backup coming in was a factor, but it was still their O-Line in the game.

We got burned a couple of times during the last couple of drives, but those still stalled and we were focused on stopping
the quick score, I believe.

Back to the DVR!
 

BAllenHawk

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Clemons has 3 more sacks than Irvin, while playing, probably twice as many snaps. (Couldn't find the info, so not sure of the snap count). Its going to be hard for anyone to prove to me that we'll lose a ton on pass rush from the LEO spot. Might lose some from the Raheem Brock role, but I feel Bruce can pressure the qb just as well as Clem. I do feel the coaching staff finds Irvin a liability in the run game, hence why Clem was still the full time LEO.
 

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